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Going Allowances

formspy

formspy

Yearling
Hi Chaps.

At the moment I am in the middle of producing my own AW speed figures for 5 & 6f sprints, as a starting point the all weather makes sense to me because I'm usually too busy in the summer to cover the racing. My one concern of compiling my own figures is of course the magical going allowance, and getting this as accurate as possible...

So far I have my standard times for each AW track, class, age, and distances up to 1m2f for the past few seasons. If I take Lingfield for example, I would calculate the difference between my standard times and the actual finishing times for the races that day, giving me 4 or 5 +/- time variants. Is it really too simple to just take the average of these as the going allowance for the day? I'm aware I maybe a few years behind the curve with this methodology and I would be interested to hear others views on a more modern approach to going allowances.

Many thanks, Steve
 
formspy formspy

Nobody will be able to help you with your going allowances due to the fact nobody knows what methology you are using to compile your speed figures, like standard times and lbs per length.

These are my speed figures for yesterday's meeting at Wolverhampton, the way I compile my speed figures are unique to me.

RP1.PNG

Using an Excel macro, I turn this data into this.

RP2.png

I had the going allowance at +0.33s/f (standard to fast).

Fast +0.50s/f
Std-Fast +0.25s/f
Good 0.00s/f
Std-Slow -0.25s/f
Slow -0.50s/f

My lbs per length figures are calculated from the standard time for the distance.

AW2018_2019.xlsx

NH2018_2019.xlsx

Mike.
 
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At the moment I'm thinking of testing going allowances based on the top 3 finishers average time (compared to standard), not just the winner. The logic here is that perhaps the winner has had the benefit of a track bias or pace conditions in their favour, I feel a more accurate assessment of going would come from using the top 3?? The only slight headache is do my standard times need to be adjusted to use the top 3 also? That would be a job and a half...

Steve
 
If the going allowance is minus do I add or subtract and vice versa, exsample race was 1,30 slow of standard over 5f ands lets say GA is -0.10 times that by 5f=-0.50 do I add or subtract which is cthe correct adjusted time 0.80, or 1.80.
 
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