Glorious Goodwood

[Deleted member 7256]

Read somewhere that Mark Johnston is the trainer to follow at this meeting , specifically in class 2 and lower handicaps , so i'm gonna post em up and see how they do ... Joe Fanning is the jock to side with but he's out at the moment , and Franny Norton apparently returns a loss but im gonna post up all his runners and we'll see what happens

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Day 1 - Tuesday 26th July

1.50 West End Charmer (F Norton) 11/1
1.50 Forest Falcon (F Dettori) 16/1

5.20 Outside World (C Fallon) 16/1
5.20 Rainbow Colours (F Norton) 7/1

 

[markfinn]

not wrong Sean

 

[Frontrunner]

Good luck @Sean . Johnston’s record at this meeting is pretty good. Below are his numbers in handicaps (excluding nurseries) at this meeting since 2003.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

F Frontrunner i dont really understand any of the above tbh lol

 

[kralken]

Good Luck @Sean it shows a profit /Loss of every year of Johnstones runners since 2003 all runners have provided 86.08 pt profit on betfair

 

[Frontrunner]

Hi @Sean, as K kralken says it shows his record at this meeting for every year since 2003. If you are backing to level stakes, then I guess you only need to look at bets, wins & P/L columns.

 

[Frontrunner]

I just applied another filter, he actually shows a loss when he only has one runner in a handicap here. The profit comes when he has multiple runners in a race.

 

[kralken]

I really cannot be betting in 3yr old plus hdcps 3 yr olds make the ratings skew wiff

 

[markfinn]

Some big prices here so need to be careful

 

[markfinn]

 

[markfinn]

 

[mick]

I just applied another filter, he actually shows a loss when he only has one runner in a handicap here. The profit comes when he has multiple runners in a race.

When he has more than one in a race can you sort by how the market neglected runners perform. ?

 

[Frontrunner]

When he has more than one in a race can you sort by how the market neglected runners perform. ?

Yes, below are the numbers for his runners when he has multiple runners in a handicap here. 1 would be the shortest priced runner of his string, and so on.


Not many wins from 3rd, 4th & 5th strings but I imagine there would be some really big priced outsiders in there. But interestingly, 2nd string has done just as well as 1st string if not better. This becomes clearer in chart below as it only includes races where he has exactly two runners.


Naturally the strike rate is lower for 2nd string than first string, but both LSP and A/E are higher for 2nd string.

 

[mick]

Cheers F Frontrunner interesting stats.

 

[Larry]

It is only my opinion but Frankie Dettori seems to ride better on horses with a chance than he does on outsiders or horses he thinks have gone at the game. I do a rudimentary ratings system & have STRADIVARIUS miles clear of its opponents, so with Atzeni on board we'll see if Stradivarius is still a contender or at 8yo should be retired to stud.

 

[Frontrunner]

Couldn’t have asked for a better start @Sean, very well done, hopefully more winners to come through the week.

 

[Larry]

Great start @Sean

 

[pete]

Some big prices here so need to be careful

maybe the answer is to only back the bigger priced ones

 

[Larry]

Well the real Stradivarious turned up those front 3 head & shoulders above the rest, great move by Hollie which didn't pay off probably helped the winner more than her horse