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GAINING AN EDGE - 3 (MAKING THE BETTING LINE)

BiyaX

Yearling
TISSUE PRICE
1. It's analytical, not mathematical
2. Main contenders will be 5 to 1 and under
3. Overlays Odds of 4-1 to 8-1
4. Longshots Odds of 9-1 and higher
5. The non-contenders Odds of 18-1 or higher
6. The odds-percentage table Odds to 100%

THE 100 LINE QUESTION
If these horses raced 100 times, how many times would each horse win?
The answer for each horse is a percentage of 100 races. Divide that percentage into 100, and subtract 1. That's the fair-value odds you should expect on that horse.

Example:
If horse "A" should win 25 times in 100 races,
25 divided into 100 is 4,
and 4 minus 1 is 3.
The fair-value odds on horse "A" is 3-1.

MODIFYING THE BETTING LINE
1. Form analysis
2. Situational factors
3. Today's special circumstances A juggling act
4. Other handicapping factors
5. The juggling act

JUGGLING THE LINE
Once the contenders have been rated and a betting line developed, handicappers still must consider a number of factors that have not yet been evaluated but apply to this race today.
Form analysis becomes important at this point. Credit horses that should improve today, and discount horses that should decline.
Juggle the odds line based upon any other factors you evaluate, lowering the acceptable odds on horses where the factors look positive and raising the acceptable odds where the factors look negative.
The sum of the odds on all the horses in the field should equal 100 percent.
 
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