Form Lab Analysis

[Roger Workman]

W. Bremen v B. Dortmund: Germany, Bundesliga Saturday Jan 19th 17:30

Dortmund have won only four of their nine away matches this season and their focus has shifted towards the Champions League, as catching Bayern in the league looks an impossible task. With Dortmund having won at Bremen in just one of the past five seasons there looks to be some value in laying the champions but we’d take a bit of cover on the away win and back Werder Bremen +0.75 goals on the Asian handicap at 2.08.

Over-goals is always a popular bet in Werder games as they’ve kept just five clean sheets in their last 46 games and both teams have scored in 20 of their last 23 games. Dortmund’s dropped points on the road this season have been partly down to conceding in 12 of their last 13 away matches, although they have scored in all those games and further back in 23 of their last 24 away. As a result seven of their last 13 away matches have had at least four goals and over 3.5 goals looks worth a punt at 2.62.


Ajax v Feyenoord: Netherlands, Eredivisie Sunday Jan 20th 13:30.

The Eredivisie marks its return from the winter break with the biggest derby game in the Netherlands, and both teams finished 2012 in superb form. Both sides have taken 19 points from a possible 21 coming into this weekend and are level on points, just three below the leaders. Ajax have been champions in the past two seasons as the result of long winning runs after the winter break. Since the 2009/10 season they’ve won 25 of 26 home games between January and May. Furthermore, 23 of those wins have been by at least two goals and 15 by three or more.

Feyenoord got a point in this fixture last season but had lost the previous five editions, all by at least two goals. Moreover, they’ve taken just two points from 11 trips to the Big Two (Ajax and PSV) since 2007/08 with seven defeats by more than a goal. While this is arguably a better side than they’ve had for a few years they have lost all three of their trips to teams currently in the top five including two 3-0 losses at PSV and Twente. Ajax showed their quality by beating Man City in the Champions League this season and they should be too good for their rivals with the 2.12 backing them -1.0 on the Asian Handicap looking great value.

The Dutch league is the highest scoring in Europe and there is usually the potential for lots of goals. However, it hasn’t actually been the case this season for Ajax as just three of their nine home matches have seen four or more goals while they’ve kept five clean sheets. Feyenoord, meanwhile, have conceded at least twice in five of their last six away games. Given the contradicting trends we’ll leave the goals markets alone.


Player Analysis: Mainz

Mainz had an excellent first half of the season in the Bundesliga but which are their key players as they look to claim a European berth in the second half of the campaign.

Adam Szalai, Forward – Szalai is Mainz’ top scorer since the start of last season and they’ve won 44% of the 25 games he’s played compared to just 21% of the 26 without him.

Nicolai Muller, Forward – Muller plays mostly on the wings and like Szalai he’s played about half their games since 2011/12 (25/51) with their win rate falling from 48% to 19% as they’ve scored 44% fewer goals per game. This has led +2.5 goals to fall from 76% with him to 46% without.

NIkolce Noveski, Defender – Mainz’ captain has missed only one game this season and that was a 3-1 win over Stuttgart. The stats would actually suggest they do better without him but we see his importance when looking at their away record without him. He’s missed just seven road games since 2009/10 and they’ve picked up only two points.

 

[Roger Workman]

Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid: Spain Primera Division Sunday 27th 20:00.

This is a repeat of last season’s Europa Cup final where Atletico won 3-0 courtesy of a Falcao brace and a late Diego goal. However, Falcao looks likely to miss the game through injury and Diego is back at Wolfsburg, so could Athletic get some revenge?

Bilbao’s home record is very similar to Madrid’s away stats this season (W4-D2-L4 vs W4-D2-L3) but they’ve picked up just one point in their last four games while Atletico have been keeping up some sort of pressure on leaders Barcelona. Moreover, Atletico have had a tough road schedule with six of their nine away games at teams currently in the top nine, including both the Big Two, while Athletic have hosted just three top-nine sides including neither Big Two team. As such, the away team look deserved favourites here at 2.50, but we would use minimal stakes as the goals market offers better value.

Six of Bilboa’s last nine home matches have had fewer than three goals and they haven’t scored more than once in their last nine games. Madrid’s away results have been based on a strong defence as they’ve scored more than once in just one of their last 10 road games while keeping four clean sheets. 15 of their last 19 away games have had -2.5 goals as have 10 of their last 12 trips to bottom-half teams with seven having no more than a single strike. Under 2.5 goals is widely available at 1.8, especially if Falcao is a confirmed absentee.

Stuttgart v Bayern: Germany Bundesliga Sunday January 27th 16:30

The past three campaigns have seen Stuttgart improve their position by an average of six positions from the start of January to the end of the season and once again they find themselves below where they might expect to be at this stage.

Stuttgart did won their last two home games before the winter break and since 2009/10, their home win percentage has improved from 34% before the break to 67% after. Given the strength of their opponents here, a point will be a good result but they’ve lost the last five meetings with Bayern. Therefore it might be better to back them on the Asian handicap with a 1.5 goals start as they have beaten the handicap in this fixture in four of the past five seasons.

Bayern have conceded just one away goal all season, but with the league looking fairly safe their focus may shift more towards Europe in the second half of the season and they have failed to win four of their last 10 games. With Stuttgart tending to come good about this time they might be able to get something from this game but we’d take the security of backing them +1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.83.

Both teams have scored in 13 of Stuttgart’s last 20 home matches including each of the last five. Moreover, both sides have netted in nine of the 11 games between these sides since 2007/08 and in 6/8 Stuttgart home matches against top-four finishers in the past two seasons. Bayern’s defensive record is superb this season but further back both sides have scored in 12 of their 19 trips to middle-third teams since 2009/10 and it could be worth a punt that they will concede this weekend. Both teams to score can be backed at 1.8.