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VDW form horses

Is the horse called A Stray Shot
If so he is very consistent
5 runs, never even placed
hasn't run since March 2014
 
Hello all,

Thanks nedloh nedloh and Chesham Chesham. Chesham is correct I'm talking about one of vdws examples which I've a slight problem with though so far looking at Lee's examples and vdw examples from tuwof which vdw describes as a form or non form horse.

Thanks again
 
Hedgehog
I think your question is paramount to the expansion of the understanding of VDW methods. It is a good question which it seems only Chesham recognises as being a genuine one.
But personally I think that question follows that of probability. Firstly isolate the probables.
 
Hi Hedgehog!

I think Lee's post here answers a big part of your question, did your selection run as it should have, based on the form of the winner?

Hope your well,
Paul.
 
formtheory said:
Hi Hedgehog!

I think Lee's post here answers a big part of your question, did your selection run as it should have, based on the form of the winner?

Hope your well,
Paul.
Click to expand...

Stray Shot going right handed, (What the horse does in the final 2f, see distance of race and finish in that race, compare the distance of LTO Race with the Huntingdon Race) Only three horses had an ability rating and Stray Shot had the best, Top 3 consistency, weight carried in comparison to the winner of LTO Race and Ability-- Warner For Leisure.
 
Hi Chesham!

I have not got the form books for Strayshot, what class did he come out from? And what class did the winner come from? Hope your well, Paul.
 
I have not got the form books for Stray Shot, what class did he come out from?

Think some would have a problem making him a form horse as he was going up in class and weight. The Huntingdon race was 162 class and that was higher class than either of his last two races, those being 121 and 128.

What Market Position did warner for Leisure hold in his LTO race

WFL was second favourite to SS's favourite, but the third horse was a rank outsider, add in SS was beaten 12 lengths. I can't work out if SS would be a probables the way the market reflects the worth of the form. However I'm more than happy he would have been the second strongest probable the way I think the probables work, I would also have been happy to take on the strongest probable based on class, course, and distance.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Chesham Chesham!

I wish I had kept that blog on file, I enjoyed reading that, Bob did a great job!

In regards to the probables numbers, what do you feel were there correct usage and purpose?

I understand they show strong form, In the P.King example only the LTO number is given when showing the probables?

Anyway hope your well!


You too Mtoto, thanks for replying! Need to obtain the rest of the books.

Take care
Paul.
 
formtheory said:
Hi Chesham Chesham!

I wish I had kept that blog on file, I enjoyed reading that, Bob did a great job!

In regards to the probables numbers, what do you feel were there correct usage and purpose?

I understand they show strong form, In the P.King example only the LTO number is given when showing the probables?

Anyway hope your well!


You too Mtoto, thanks for replying! Need to obtain the rest of the books.

Take care
Paul.
Click to expand...

Hi Paul

I have seen two versions of the Probables Numbers and both used similar data in their formulation. To a certain extent Mtoto's version (3 rd version, uses the position in the betting forecast if I remember correctly as part of the data to consider, the difference being that Mtoto's version Ranks as opposed to an actual number, like the PK Example)

VDW mentions weighing the odds

The Probables example that I saw before Bobs version did not use the betting forecast but they did weigh the odds. if you use HRB one feature of a system being successful is to look at the Expected winners based on the returned odds and then measuring the actual number of winners against those odds (weighing the odds) The Price Ratio also uses the odds and number of runners to give a numerical picture.

The Probables number in the Erin Example may be just a typo or may have been a deliberate clue. One way or another it did make some look at how that number was arrived at ( Mtoto) included. To me the Probables data strengthens other elements of the selection process as defined by VDW. Take Mtoto and his ranking method of giving him a Probables short list and then he finds that his Ability method of Rating horses throws up a similar horse. he then looks at the Capabilities of that horse maximising those positives In a race about to be run, that offer the possibility of at least placing in the first three, at odds that he considers to be worth the risk. He is more likely to risk a bigger investment on that horse than one who is missing something when he uses his VDW method of working the race.

I use different methods to arrive at selections, yesterday I posted two selections pre race one used Pedigree Handicapping and Trainers capability based on his performance in the same race in previous years. The other section used a Benchmark Handicapping Method and Future Form to see if the Trainer had chosen the best race for that horse from the entries that he had made for the horse

VDW mentions Future Form as he said that he liked the Sporting Chronicle handicap book because it had the race entries. For the coming week and he could see the opportunities the horse had and that where the horse was eventually placed, could be informative. lee also does the same with the horses who are on his list.
 
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On several occasions I have given clues about form, unless you follow them you will miss the point.
One particular letter was printed in' The Ultimate Wheel Of Fortune' entitled 'The Class/Form Horse The One Most Likely Likely to Win' where he starts a paragraph about 'Professionals' and 'Pro'.
Change these words to 'Favourite or Fav'. A story is then told, VDW tells us specifically 'A true 'Fav' is someone who regularly derives an income from taking the odds' , why would VDW say TRUE and anyone who is clever enough would automatically realise that there is a suggestion take a closer look at the favourite for a bloody good reason.
 
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WFL was a favourite (twice odds on) in his 3LTO races prior to meetings Stray Shot, sadly the LTO and the 2LTO he had fallen, on his 3rd LTO he was beaten by the 2nd fav who was a previous winner Class 12 beaten 2 lengths.

The 3rd horse in Stray Shots LTO was a first time outer (St William), who went on to win his next 3 races, 2 of which were prior to Stray Shot running again, a little like Vouchsafe
 
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