• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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    AR

Explaining Value Bets

R

rbtblb82

Colt
Probably most members know about value bets, but for any that don't, there was a good overview on ITV racing which I recorded, so here it is word for word (it's not my explanation, it's Richard Hoiles').....

Defining Value

Obtaining a bigger price than the true price of an event actually happening.

So what do we mean by that? Well the simplest way to explain it is with the flip of a coin.

A single flip of a fair coin has a 50% chance of hitting heads and a 50% chance of hitting tails (50/50). So in racing parlance evens money each of two, the odds 1/1 (even money). So if somebody offered you bigger than even money (1/1) for a single toss of a fair coin, say they offer you 11/10 or 5/4, you should back that irrespective of whether or not you think it's actually going to be a head or a tail, you may of course still lose, it maybe the reverse of what you backed, but over time, if you were getting 11/10 for a single toss of a coin you would win money.

So how do we apply that to an event where there's more than two outcomes? Obviously in most horse races there are more than two runners and a lot have several plus. Just to give you a feel for the percentages, I've expanded to two tosses of the coin.

Head or Tails?

2 Heads - 3/1 - 25%
2 Tail - 3/1 - 25%
1 Heads + 1 Tails - Evens (1/1) - 50%
Total - 100%

Above you can see the various permutations or outcomes. If you flip a coin twice you have the chance of hitting 2 heads, 2 tails, or 1 head and 1 tail. For 2 heads, you have 1 successful outcome and 3 unsuccessful outcomes, for a total of 4, so 3 out of 4 or 3/1 (or 25%). This is because there are 4 possible outcomes, heads or tails the 1st flip and heads or tails the 2nd flip. Obviously the 2 tails is exactly the same. But for 1 head and 1 tail, you could have head tail, tail head, 2 successful outcomes out of a possible 4, 2 out of 4 or evens (1/1) (or 50%).

To be continued...., sorry I've been distracted and it's taking longer than I thought, it's only a 4 minute video but the sound quality is naff so can't upload....
 
Can't argue with the above. Problem is, of course, that it has zero relevance to horse racing, because there are no "true" prices.

Value in horse racing is getting a price better than the horse's chance in one's opinion, and opinion, however informed or experienced, is intrinsically subjective, while the odds associated with coin tossing, roulette etc (assuming of course a fair coin or wheel) are objective.
 
While most people assume the probability of a coin toss is a perfect 50/50, the scientific reality is slightly different. In the world of physics, a coin toss is not a "random" event but a deterministic one—meaning if you knew the exact force, angle, and air resistance, you could predict the outcome every time.

+1


According to major studies (most notably by Stanford mathematician Persi Diaconis and a massive 2023 study by the University of Amsterdam), the true probability is closer to 51/49.

1. The "Same-Side Bias"​

The most significant discovery in coin-toss physics is that a coin is slightly more likely to land on the same side it started on.




  • The 51% Rule: In a study of over 350,000 coin flips, researchers found that coins land on the same side they started on roughly 50.8% of the time.


  • The Reason (Precession): When a human flips a coin, it doesn't just rotate perfectly end-over-end. It also "wobbles" (precesses) like a spinning top. This wobble causes the starting face to spend more time facing "up" during the flight than the bottom face.

2. Deterministic vs. Random​

Mathematically, we call a coin toss "random" because humans lack the fine motor control to repeat the exact same flip twice. However:

  • Machines: Diaconis built a coin-tossing machine that can make a coin land on "Heads" 100% of the time by perfectly replicating the initial conditions.


  • Human Manipulation: Experienced "flippers" can practice enough to influence the outcome. Some individuals in studies were able to produce "Heads" up to 68% of the time without it looking suspicious.
    +1

3. The "Edge" Factor​

There is a third, extremely rare outcome: the coin landing and staying on its edge.




  • Probability: Roughly 1 in 6,000 tosses for a standard nickel.


  • Conditions: This almost never happens on a soft surface or if the coin is caught; it usually requires a hard, flat surface where the coin can lose its kinetic energy while perfectly balanced.

Comparison Summary​

FactorTheoretical ChanceObserved Reality (Empirical)
Heads (Starting on Heads)50%≈50.8%−51%
Tails (Starting on Heads)50%≈49%
Landing on Edge0%≈0.015% (1 in 6,000)
Rigged/ManipulatedN/AUp to 100% (Machine)
 
Chesham said:
HI MICK

Price Disparity can be a good way to find races where there could be value.

If a horse is being offered at 4.6 and its implied odds are 1.76, based on the percentage of money matched then it is trading at 2.6 times it implied odds. You have to ask yourself why are the layers being very over generous.
I look for runners at the front end of the market who are trading at over 2.00 times their implied odds based on market share

Yesterday there were 6 races where there were runners trading at over 2.00 times there implied odds (The Figures in Brackets is the % of the market Share)


3.20 Brighton Orla's Rainbow(IRE) 2.6 (56.8%)

Kempton 9:00 Viennese Verse2.3 ( 24%)


Brighton 4.50 Lady Barastar(IRE) 2.3 (56.4%)

Brighton 3.50 Bank On Me 2.2 (31.6%)

Kempton 6:00 English Summer 2.1 (39.6%)

Pontefract 2:00 Taro Tywood 2.1 (30.3%)


The Price disparity Figures are taken near to the start of the race and all lost. I am not suggesting laying these runners, but if you think they look dodgy to from what ever angle you look at them, then there must be exceptional values backing one of the other runners as a big chunk of the BF BOOK has gone, if this type of horse can be safely discarded.

I would not suggest laying the Price disparity horse, but look for an alternative as this will offer value, or perhaps make a book of two or three runners. Quite often one of the other ones at the front end of the market win

Good Luck

Chesham
Click to expand...
 
Chesham said:
Sometimes what seems Value is Not Value

The BF Market is usually Trading around 101% Over Round and although not necessarily true odds, is a 100 % Book as near as can be

Now if the Layers are Offering Odds Greater than the Betting Public suggest they should be you would expect that the Betting Public is Getting Value

The Amount Matched on each horse can be turned into a fraction and the Implied Odds calculated. In a Fair Market the Implied Odds would equal the Odds being Offered

Now if the Layers are offering twice the Implied Odds you would say that is Value (Price Disparity)

So lets look at some snap shots taken at around 12 MD

Only one horse won who had a Price Disparity 2.00 or Greater so what should be perceived as Value is not Value, the Layers are trying to take these horses on by offering odds greater than the Public think they should be

Take an Extreme example in the 5.15 Swirral Edge at 11.45 PM has 87% of the Book, if you accept that the Horse is Dodgy then that amount of the Book can be taken out and the Remaining Horses can be Dutched at Value Odds



View attachment 30691 View attachment 30693 View attachment 30692 View attachment 30694 View attachment 30695 View attachment 30695 View attachment 30696 View attachment 30697 View attachment 30698 View attachment 30699
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There is more to come, I just got distracted/didn't have time to complete, he breaks down a real race with several runners, then shows you how to do it. It can take a fair bit of time though as you have to convert to percentages etc. - I'll complete asap (& thanks Chesham).
 
Chesham said:
You might find the attached Tool Useful as you can check the Disparity whenever you want to

You need to enter 3 bits of information. (All 3 Columns have a red triangle in the top right hand corner) Columns A, B & E

1) The Amount Matched on the selected runner
2) The Total Amount Matched on the Particular Race
3) The Betfair Odds for the selected Runner.

I have entered the data for Solar Flare as it was a few moments ago on the First line of the Excel Tool and the Disparity was 1.67

If anyone has the skills to do a live Disparity for the Forum that would be a useful tool to have

View attachment 29330
Click to expand...
 
Using trading indicators on a platform like Betfair (often via software like BetAngel, Gruss, or FairBot) allows you to see the "internal machinery" of the market.

To address your theory about layers being "generous," you need to look at three specific indicators that reveal whether a price disparity is a value opportunity or a warning sign.

1. Weight of Money (WOM)​

WOM is a lead indicator. While the "matched" money tells you what has happened, WOM tells you what is about to happen. It compares the unmatched money waiting on the Back side versus the Lay side.

The Formula:​

WOM=Total Unmatched Money (at best 3 prices)Unmatched Back Money (at best 3 prices)×100
  • WOM > 50%: More money is waiting to Back the horse. This creates downward pressure on the price (it will likely "steam" or shorten).
  • WOM < 50%: More money is waiting to Lay the horse. This creates upward pressure (it will likely "drift").
In your scenario: If you see a horse at odds of 10.0 (10%) but its volume-implied odds were 4.0 (25%), and the WOM is consistently at 20%, it confirms the layers are aggressively pushing the price out. They are essentially "fishing" for backers because they are confident the horse won't win.

2. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)​

This is the "Implied Odds" indicator you mentioned. It shows the average price at which all the money has been matched so far.

  • The Signal: When the Current Price is significantly higher than the VWAP, you have a "Divergence."
  • The "Twice the Odds" Rule: If the VWAP is 5.0 and the current price is 10.0, the market "mood" has shifted 100% against the horse since the early betting.
Expert Insight: In the final 5 minutes before a race, the "Smart Money" (high-volume professional traders) enters the market. If they are laying the horse at 10.0 despite early volume at 5.0, they are effectively saying the early money was "wrong." On Betfair, the last 5 minutes of volume are almost always more accurate than the previous 5 hours.
Click to expand...

3. The "Ladder" Interface​

To spot this disparity, traders use a Ladder, which shows the full depth of the market.

PriceBack VolLay VolTrend Signal
10.5—£5,000Resistance: Huge money waiting to lay here.
10.0£10£2,000Generosity: Layers are "stacking" the exit.
9.5£5—Vacuum: No one wants to back it.
Export to Sheets
In this example, the £5,000 at 10.5 acts as a "ceiling." The layers are "generous" with 10.0 because they know that even if someone takes it, the price is unlikely to go back down past that 10.5 wall.

Is it a "Trap"?​

Your assumption is generally correct. In horse racing, a massive drift (where current odds > 2x implied odds) is a strong negative signal for three reasons:

  1. Risk Absorption: Professional layers have "green-ed up" (secured a profit) on other runners and are using that profit to "lay out" a horse they’ve identified as having no chance.
  2. The Paddock Factor: Modern "courtsiders" or scouts at the track see the horse looking poor (sweating, "leggy," or refusing to load) and signal the exchange traders instantly.
  3. Spoofing: Sometimes, layers place large "fake" unmatched bets at higher prices to scare other backers into thinking the horse is a loser, further driving the price up so they can back it back at a massive price later. This is high-level market manipulation.

A Next Step for You​

To see this in action, you can look at the Betfair Price/Volume graph for any horse. If the red line (price) is moving sharply upward while the grey bars (volume) are also increasing, it’s a "confirmed drift"—meaning the layers are being "generous" because they are being hit with informed sell orders.
 
A False Drift is one of the most profitable (and risky) patterns to recognize. It occurs when a horse's price increases significantly, but its actual chance of winning has not decreased.

While you are correct that a 2x price disparity is often a "red flag," professional traders look for specific signals to determine if that drift is a market error (value) or informed laying.

1. The "See-Saw" Effect (Mathematical Necessity)​

This is the most common cause of a false drift. Betting markets are a zero-sum game of percentages. If the total market must equal roughly 100%:

  • If the Favorite is "steaming" (price dropping) because of massive support, every other horse in the race must driftmathematically to keep the book balanced.
  • The Signal: If a horse is drifting from 5.0 to 10.0 while the favorite is shortening from 3.0 to 1.8, the drifter might still be perfectly fit and ready to win. The price is moving because of the favorite's popularity, not the drifter's weakness.

2. High Volume vs. Low Volume Drifts​

On Betfair, you can see the volume of money matched at each price point.

  • True Drift (Dangerous): The price is moving out on high volume. This means people are aggressively "selling" (laying) the horse. They want out at any price.
  • False Drift (Value): The price is moving out on low volume. There are "gaps" in the ladder with very little money matched. This suggests the drift is just "noise" or a lack of interest, rather than active negative information. The price often "snaps back" (shortens) just before the race starts.

3. Technical "Support" Levels​

In trading, certain odds act as psychological barriers. These are typically round numbers: 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, and 10.0.

  • If a horse drifts from 7.0 and hits 10.0, you will often see a "wall" of money appear to back it.
  • The Signal: If the price hits a major round number and the Weight of Money (WOM) suddenly flips from 20% (laying) to 70% (backing), you have found a support level. The layers have pushed it as far as they can, and the value-seekers are now stepping in.

4. The "Late Bounce"​

Statistically, the most accurate price is the Betfair Starting Price (BSP) at the moment the race jumps.

  • If a horse drifts significantly 10 minutes before the race but then starts to shorten again in the final 60 seconds, this is a very strong positive signal.
  • It suggests that the "smart money" waited for the drift to reach its maximum (the 2x disparity you mentioned) before "gobbling up" the value.

How to distinguish them: A Cheat Sheet​

FeatureTrue Drift (Avoid)False Drift (Back)
Market ContextNo other horse is steaming.The favorite is steaming heavily.
VolumeHigh volume matched on the drift.Low volume; gaps in the ladder.
Paddock InfoHorse looks sweaty/agitated.Horse looks calm and fit.
Bookmaker MoveFixed odds bookies are leading the drift.Bookies are holding their price; only the Exchange is moving.
WOMHeavy pressure on the Lay side.WOM is neutral or starting to flip to Back.
Export to Sheets

The "Over-Generous" Layer​

To your point about layers knowing more: sometimes they do. But remember, a layer at 10.0 is risking 9 times their stake. If they are "over-generous" on a horse that actually has a 15% chance (odds of 6.6), they will eventually go bust. Professional traders often "spoof" the market by placing large lay orders they have no intention of matching, just to drive the price up so they can back the horse at a better price themselves.
 
Spotting Spoofing (fake orders) is a vital skill because it helps you distinguish between a horse that is genuinely unwanted (a real drift) and a horse whose price is being artificially manipulated to trick you.

On a Betfair Ladder (like BetAngel or Geeks Toy), spoofers use large unmatched orders to create a false Weight of Money (WOM). Here is how to unmask them:

1. The "Pull-Back" Test​

This is the most common spoof. You will see a large lump of money (e.g., £5,000) sitting one or two ticks away from the current price.

  • The Sign: As the market moves toward that price, watch closely. If the money disappears or moves further awayjust before it would be matched, it is a spoof.
  • Why they do it: The spoofer wants to "scare" the price in the opposite direction. If they want the price to go up (drift), they place a huge Back order. Traders see the "support" and think the price will drop, so they jump in front of it, which ironically causes the price to move exactly where the spoofer wants to Lay the horse.

2. Traded Volume vs. Unmatched Money​

Always compare the unmatched money (the blue and pink columns) with the Traded Volume (the grey bars or "LTP" column).

  • The Fake: If there is £10,000 waiting to be matched at 10.0, but only £200 has actually been traded at that price all day, that £10,000 is likely "fake."
  • The Real: If the traded volume bars are large and consistent with the unmatched money, the interest is genuine. Real money is "sticky"; it stays there and gets eaten. Fake money "flashes."

3. "The Flasher" (Rapid Appearance)​

Spoofers often use bots to "flash" large orders on and off the ladder multiple times a second.

  • How to spot it: The WOM percentage at the top of your ladder will jump wildly (e.g., from 30% to 90% and back).
  • The Trap: They are trying to trigger other people’s automated bots. Many bots are programmed to "follow the money." By flashing a large order, the spoofer tricks dozens of bots into placing real bets, moving the price instantly.

4. Spoofing at "Round Numbers"​

Spoofers love prices like 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, and 10.0.

  • Because human bettors naturally see these as "support" or "resistance" levels, a spoofer can place a fake wall at 10.0 to make it look like the horse will never drift past that point.
  • If you see a "wall" at 10.0 that has no historical volume behind it, and the WOM is heavily weighted to that side, be very skeptical.

Summary: Real Drift vs. Spoofed Drift​

FeatureReal "Bad News" DriftSpoofed "Fake" Move
MovementSteady, consistent "eating" of money.Erratic, jumping ticks, flashing.
VolumeHigh volume matched as it moves.Low volume matched; money "flees."
LadderMoney stays in the queue to be matched.Money is canceled/moved as price nears.
GoalTo get out of a losing position.To manipulate the price for a better entry.
Export to Sheets

The "Price Disparity" Connection​

To bring it back to your original point: when you see a horse at twice its implied odds, look at the ladder. If that high price is being held up by a "wall" of money that never actually gets matched, the layers are spoofing. They want the public to think the horse has no chance so they can "back" it themselves at the inflated price they just created.

Summary of the "Price Disparity" Strategy​

Your original intuition was that a 2x disparity is a negative sign. You are right 80% of the time. The strategy of a professional trader is to find the 20% of the time where that disparity is caused by a spoofer or a "steaming favorite," and then use a swing trade to capture the "snap back."
 
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Ok, so here's what Richard Hoiles had to say, this was December 2022 before the Matherson hurdle (which was won by State Man). I recorded it my phone as I was shocked ITV were covering it, I've read many posts from people saying they got banned or restricted to £1 bets for placing only value bets.

Anyway, I've managed to write it out so I can finally delete it from my phone.....I'll re-post the 1st section so it's all in one....

Defining Value

Obtaining a bigger price than the true price of an event actually happening.

So what do we mean by that? Well the simplest way to explain it is with the flip of a coin.

A single flip of a fair coin has a 50% chance of hitting heads and a 50% chance of hitting tails (50/50). So in racing parlance evens money each of two, the odds 1/1 (even money). So if somebody offered you bigger than even money (1/1) for a single toss of a fair coin, say they offer you 11/10 or 5/4, you should back that irrespective of whether or not you think it's actually going to be a head or a tail, you may of course still lose, it maybe the reverse of what you backed, but over time, if you were getting 11/10 for a single toss of a coin you would win money.

So how do we apply that to an event where there's more than two outcomes? Obviously in most horse races there are more than two runners and a lot have several plus. Just to give you a feel for the percentages, I've expanded to two tosses of the coin.

Head or Tails?

2 Heads - 3/1 - 25%
2 Tail - 3/1 - 25%
1 Heads + 1 Tails - Evens (1/1) - 50%
Total - 100%

Above you can see the various permutations or outcomes. If you flip a coin twice you have the chance of hitting 2 heads, 2 tails, or 1 head and 1 tail. For 2 heads, you have 1 successful outcome and 3 unsuccessful outcomes, for a total of 4, so 3 out of 4 or 3/1 (or 25%). This is because there are 4 possible outcomes, heads or tails the 1st flip and heads or tails the 2nd flip. Obviously the 2 tails is exactly the same. But for 1 head and 1 tail, you could have head tail, tail head, 2 successful outcomes out of a possible 4, 2 out of 4 or evens (1/1) (or 50%).

Also, you can see that the sum of the market is 100%, and that's what's important.

If you make your own prices, because the key is of course, it's not an actual price that is exactly accurate for a horse winning a race, it's a subjective opinion, but if you're trying to produce prices the ideal is to actually make your prices add up to 100%.

So how do you do that?

Well what I've done is I've taken some of the more obvious prices and shown you how to convert them to percentages. And the rule is, let's take our 3/1 example about two heads - 1 possible successful outcome, 3 possible negative outcomes, so it's not a 33.33% chance it's a 25% chance, remember there are 4 possible outcomes. So even money (1/1) is 50%, we've already spoken about that. The key is you add +1 to the odds.

The rule to convert percentages is divide 100 by the odds +1. Or 100/(odds+1).

4/6 = 60%
Evens (1/1) = 50%
6/4 = 40%
2/1 = 33.33%
3/1 = 25%
4/1 = 20%
9/1 = 10%

So 3/1, you add +1 to make 4, ad you then divide that answer by 100. For those that are 4/6 and 6/4, I've included to that just show that the inverse is true. If you calculate 6/4 you get 2.5, 100 divided by 2.5 is 40 or 40%, the 4/6 side of that would be exactly the same reverse, it would be 60%.

I'm going to show you how to apply those to a little race tomorrow, just to show you the math's behind it. You need to identify the actual price for an event and get a bigger price for it. I started this 1st section with the flip of a coin, I'm going to end this 1st section with an example which shows you why the bookmakers include a margin, and that's what you have to beat.

Consider a roulette wheel with red and black, it should be 50/50 or 50%, but remember there is a green zero on that wheel, and that's what tips things in favour of the house, so over time, it would be impossible globally to beat the house. You could have individual good runs, but that's where the margin becomes important in beating it. This introduction to value isn't too complicated, tomorrow we'll apply it to a race.

Part 2 in next post, could exceed character limit....
 
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Part 2 - Applying It To A Race

What I do, I just keep it simple and have a piece of paper, and right at the top would be a 1/10 on and right at the bottom would be a 500/1 outsider, and I just position the runners up and down the paper depending on their respective chances.

So for example, in the Mathersons Hurdle.

Estimating Market

Initial Guestimates

State Man - Evens (50%)
Vauban - 3/1 (25%)
Sharjah - 4/1 (20%)
Pied Piper - 8/1 (11%)
She Is Electric - 500/1 (0%)
TOTAL = 106%

Obviously State Man is at the top there. Identify the favourite and 1st how strong of a favourite determines how far up or down that particular horse is and then I base the others around them depending on what I think their respective chances are. For the Matherson Hurdle I've got Vauban just ahead of Sharjah, you might have them the other way around, slight gap to Pied Piper and then a massive gap to She Is Electric, which isn't going to play much of a hand.

So that's the key point, spend some time doing that as this is the basis of your tissue, and I'm going to come back to it later so you can take a shortcut as I appreciate the next couple of minutes are going to be like going back to math's at school. I'm going to try and make it as simple as I can.

So having spaced horses out, you then need to apply some priced. Just some guestimates to try an get close to 100% as see where you are. (Matherson Hurdle with initial guestimates already added above). Remember the calculation, take the odds, add 1 to them, take 100 and divide by that answer you just got. So evens becomes 2's, 100 divided by 2 is 50, so evens is 50%, 3/1 is 3 add 1 equals 4, 100 divided by 4 is 25, so 3/1 is 25% etc. I've tried to keep the numbers simple and not lots of rounding. So I've come up to 106%, which is pretty close, but it's not what I want, I want 100%.

So let's move to the next graphic, which is where you just tweak your prices.

Estimating Market

Making Market Equal 100%

State Man - Evens (50%)
Vauban - 7/2 (22%)
Sharjah - 9/2 (18%)
Pied Piper - 9/1 (10%)
She Is Electric - 500/1 (0%)
TOTAL = 100%

I could have made State Man 11/10, but I decided to leave him as evens because I'm pretty sure that if I get that price wrong it's going to effect the whole thing. Vauban I've inched out half a point, Sharjah half a point, Pied Piper one point, and left She Is Electric 500/1. And that adds up to a 100% market, so effectively that is my tissue based on where I've placed the horses with their respective merits. And what I do now is I take that market and I compare it to the bookmakers odds. Now I have used the general prices available at the time I completed this, you might have multiple accounts and can shop around for even better prices, but I've just used a basic average.

Compare Odds to Bookmakers Prices

Bookmakers Odds
State Man - 8/11 (58%)
Vauban - 11/4 (27%)
Sharjah - 5/1 (16%)
Pied Piper - 12/1 (8%)
She Is Electric 250/1 (0%)
TOTAL = 109%

The bookmakers have State Man at 8/11, Vauban 11/4, Sharjah 5/1, Pied Piper 12/1 and She Is Electric 250/1. The one that stands out based on my tissue is Pied Piper. I had Pied Piper a bit smaller at 9/1 and the bookmakers are offering 12/1. So Pied Piper, perhaps surprisingly to me, but that's the horse that I would investigate whether or not I wanted to back. It's not the horse that's important, it's the process.

You'll also see that I've converted the bookmakers odds to percentages and they add up to 109%, and that's the bookmakers margin. It's normally 2-3% per horse, but because She Is Electric is soo big it's slightly lower in this instance.

Another point to make is the 80/20 rule, you can get 80% of the outcome for only 20% of the effort, and that's quite a convoluted process, it takes a long time. Sometimes just writing out that sheet of paper and then putting the prices on, if they're in a different order it becomes blindingly obvious which one might represent a bit of value. So it's a shortcut, placing the horses in that right order with the right distance between them is the key to winning in the long term.

Many people do or don't believe in value, it doesn't really matter, the idea is to give you a concept for how you can frame your prices and identify where your view is different to the bookmakers and hence, where you should be maximizing your betting.

And just one final thought, it's a very intellectual process, it's pretty complicated, and that's what makes it fun.

With thanks to Richard Hoiles and ITV racing.
 
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As said above, I just found this (a) interesting (b) surprising it was on ITV.

He does say he'll keep it simple and then at times his explanation isn't overly simple.

Also, I remember having a go myself at the time and it took ages just to do one race - I'd like to see him do a 20 runner handicap!

And there is also the subjective element that always exists.

Plus you could spend hours doing this and then find there isn't any value bets - I've heard bookmakers are pretty good with horse racing, and top level football, the best place to find value is lower league football, and smaller tournaments on tennis etc., but still interesting and if you can be bothered, it should work, technically.
 
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Plus you can spend hours doing it and find there are no value bets. ( chat gpt etc can speed it up)

Lingfield 15.29 Hcp.

HorseOddsMarket %Model %EdgeDecision
Tam Lin11/426.7%16.8%-9.9%❌ No Bet
Toussarok10/323.1%16.5%-6.6%❌ No Bet
Sanditon10/323.1%15.2%-7.9%❌ No Bet
Thomas Equinas4/120.0%14.2%-5.8%❌ No Bet
Naval Ensign9/218.2%14.2%-4.0%❌ No Bet
Friday Again9/110.0%13.9%+3.9%⚠️ Profile risk
Miraflorest22/14.3%11.5%+7.2%❌ Weak
Hannahs Story50/12.0%11.5%+9.5%❌ Weak
Lasswadet66/11.5%10.4%+8.9%❌ Weak
 
Donny said:
Not a problem Monster i wont post on this forum again.
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Sorry Donny Donny not sure why you have reacted this way , do I know you from Flatstats under a different name and why do you feel that you need to stop posting on the forum. I can’t see any reason why I might have upset you.

If anyone else can she’d some light on Donny Donny , reaction to my post 16 on this thread, please let me know as I am absolutely puzzled
 
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I am puzzled as well Chesham Chesham. I have not seen a post in years that addresses you as Monster. And then to not want to post again?

I think a explanation is needed, everything smells of VDW. I still can not believe posters still need to use more than one user name seemingly to play further games. That was a old VDW trick.


Arkle
 
arkle55 said:
I am puzzled as well Chesham Chesham. I have not seen a post in years that addresses you as Monster. And then to not want to post again?

I think a explanation is needed, everything smells of VDW. I still can not believe posters still need to use more than one user name seemingly to play further games. That was a old VDW trick.


Arkle
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I’m baffled as I have not had any negative interaction with Donny Donny and if he is from a long time ago Forum, not a clue who he would have been , it must be years ago as I have only posted exclusively on this Forum since 2012 . Prior to that it would have Flatstats .
 
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