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Erin Question

The 3.58 at Musselburgh

Interestingly enough I have placed a bet in this race. Unsurprisingly
the bet gets no mention as being a challenger in this race by anybody else.
other than Jenny K. Going entirely off the Official Ratings I have backed
Azurinthejungle @ 11/1.
On the ratings front the form of at least three others are near enough to Azurinthejungle
to make it somethimg of a hopeful bet rather than an expected one.
Mo of Cairo does certainly look a very interesting contender.
 
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No i never thought you where criticising Sullybomb Sullybomb i get where every one is coming from and a lot here know i disagree with a lot about ability rating to far back being of importance but he did think it has bearing on there class all told.
What i am doing is putting in ratings and adjusting them to what i think is important in a race and JER BATT came out top and if ground would have not suited i would have thought twice about backing it but as it happens it has come out right on top of being top and there is a couple unknown ground horses one being MO OF CAIRO and is till think STARTLING will struggle today along with AZUIN THE JUNGLE also both these horses have to find something way beyond there form and ground to. But MONTEZUMA was my second on list and will be the danger i feel these two have run few times together but JER BATT got the weight advantage to turn it round if not i will win a little with other one.
Be interesting race now for sure as i have made my case for my only bet today and i am strong in it running very close.
 
Not financially involved in this race and the following is very much experimental .
Will try to update about 10 mins before the start when I feed in the LIVE BF Market

Here is the unadulterated structural analysis for the 15:58 at Musselburgh.

Gate 1: Front-End Pace Mapping​

The pace map for this 5f 1y sprint forecasts a Strong Pace, and the data confirms an extreme front-end setup. We have five confirmed front-runners/leaders projected to contest the early lead: Startling, Mo Of Cairo, Azuinthejungle, Hanney Girl, and Lipsink.

Musselburgh’s 5f track is razor-sharp and fast, but sending five horses into a cutthroat early speed duel guarantees a pace collapse. The tactical advantage shifts heavily to the "Prominent" stalkers (Shes Got A Brother, Jer Batt, Anaisa, Call Margot) who can take a tow off the leaders and strike when the front end empties.

Gate 2: CCR v2.0 Engine (Pure Base Class & VS Par)​

The Pure Base Class is now calculated strictly using the composite average of the unadulterated, weight-adjusted performance metrics (TFR, RPR proxy, Best L3 Tfig). We cross this with the RaceIQ racecourse velocity (VS Par).

(Note: RobustScaler applied to the field. The top Final CCR 2.0 score sets the 90.00 baseline).

HorsePure Base ClassClass ScalerVS ParVS Par ScalerFinal CCR 2.0Adjusted Rating (Base 90)
Mo Of Cairo84.0+0.65-1.12s+1.45+2.1090.00* (Pace Compromised)
Anaisa83.6+0.55-0.90s+1.15+1.7089.60
Call Margot81.0-0.15-1.03s+1.32+1.1789.07
Shes Got A Brother86.6+1.35+0.29s-0.45+0.9088.80
Jer Batt86.0+1.15+0.13s-0.25+0.9088.80
Lipsink86.0+1.15+0.08s-0.18+0.9788.87* (Pace Compromised)
Hanney Girl82.3+0.15-0.87s+1.11+1.2689.16* (Pace Compromised)
Startling80.3-0.35+0.48s-0.72-1.0786.83* (Pace Compromised)

Pre-Market Tactical Summary​

With the subjective tissue overlays removed, the race boils down entirely to the collision between the mathematical engine and the tactical map.

  • Mo Of Cairo (The Mathematical #1 / Tactical Trap): He possesses a brilliant mechanical profile, combining a solid Base Class (84.0) with an elite VS Par (-1.12s). However, Gate 1 vetos him. He is a confirmed front-runner drawn alongside four other speed horses. If he uses that elite acceleration early to win the lead, he will be vulnerable late.
  • Anaisa & Call Margot (The Prime Stalkers): These two present the perfect blend of race shape and biomechanics. Both possess elite VS Par figures (-0.90s and -1.03s), and crucially, both are classified as "Prominent" runners. They are perfectly positioned to track the 5-way speed duel and use their superior late velocity to pick up the pieces.
  • Shes Got A Brother (The Class Drop): She boasts the highest Pure Base Class in the race (86.6) after dropping significantly in grade from a Class 1 Listed event at Ayr. While her VS Par (+0.29s) isn't elite, her raw class advantage and prominent running style make her incredibly dangerous.
Instructions for the 10-Minute Update: When you post the live Betfair flow, we are looking for the sharp money to isolate the winner of the tactical battle between the stalkers (Anaisa, Shes Got A Brother, Call Margot, Jer Batt). If the herd is blindly steaming the front-runners (Startling, Mo Of Cairo), we will happily take them on.

Drop the live feed 10 minutes before the off!
 
Just note Mo Of Cairo in the 3:58 has a LTO pos vs market index of 4.67. 😬

Jer Batt is 3.33
Montezuma 0.33
Axuinthejungle 1.83
Thunderstorm Katie 0.83
Anaisa 1.67
She’s Got A Brother 3.17
Startling -0.6
Wen Moon 1.5
Hanney Girl 0.17
Call Margot 2
Lipsink 2.33

So shortlist on this basis is Hanney Girl, Montezuma, Startling and Thunderstorm Katie.

Interesting to see how they get on.
 
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Chesham said:
I have just been looking at Lee Selections and apart from Byron who was aftertimed, the rest are mostly Grp, Listed and Class 3 . A couple of class 4 and nearly ALL fav or 2nd fav , so the market was also picking them out as well .
Click to expand...
Everytime I run tests on several years races I often see a distinct bias towards class 3 and 4 races over the class 2 on the flat and class 1 over jumps. The idea that it is the best races that feature the most consistent horses doesn’t seem to be borne out by the data.
 
Chesham said:
Not financially involved in this race and the following is very much experimental .
Will try to update about 10 mins before the start when I feed in the LIVE BF Market

Here is the unadulterated structural analysis for the 15:58 at Musselburgh.

Gate 1: Front-End Pace Mapping​

The pace map for this 5f 1y sprint forecasts a Strong Pace, and the data confirms an extreme front-end setup. We have five confirmed front-runners/leaders projected to contest the early lead: Startling, Mo Of Cairo, Azuinthejungle, Hanney Girl, and Lipsink.

Musselburgh’s 5f track is razor-sharp and fast, but sending five horses into a cutthroat early speed duel guarantees a pace collapse. The tactical advantage shifts heavily to the "Prominent" stalkers (Shes Got A Brother, Jer Batt, Anaisa, Call Margot) who can take a tow off the leaders and strike when the front end empties.

Gate 2: CCR v2.0 Engine (Pure Base Class & VS Par)​

The Pure Base Class is now calculated strictly using the composite average of the unadulterated, weight-adjusted performance metrics (TFR, RPR proxy, Best L3 Tfig). We cross this with the RaceIQ racecourse velocity (VS Par).

(Note: RobustScaler applied to the field. The top Final CCR 2.0 score sets the 90.00 baseline).

HorsePure Base ClassClass ScalerVS ParVS Par ScalerFinal CCR 2.0Adjusted Rating (Base 90)
Mo Of Cairo84.0+0.65-1.12s+1.45+2.1090.00* (Pace Compromised)
Anaisa83.6+0.55-0.90s+1.15+1.7089.60
Call Margot81.0-0.15-1.03s+1.32+1.1789.07
Shes Got A Brother86.6+1.35+0.29s-0.45+0.9088.80
Jer Batt86.0+1.15+0.13s-0.25+0.9088.80
Lipsink86.0+1.15+0.08s-0.18+0.9788.87* (Pace Compromised)
Hanney Girl82.3+0.15-0.87s+1.11+1.2689.16* (Pace Compromised)
Startling80.3-0.35+0.48s-0.72-1.0786.83* (Pace Compromised)

Pre-Market Tactical Summary​

With the subjective tissue overlays removed, the race boils down entirely to the collision between the mathematical engine and the tactical map.

  • Mo Of Cairo (The Mathematical #1 / Tactical Trap): He possesses a brilliant mechanical profile, combining a solid Base Class (84.0) with an elite VS Par (-1.12s). However, Gate 1 vetos him. He is a confirmed front-runner drawn alongside four other speed horses. If he uses that elite acceleration early to win the lead, he will be vulnerable late.
  • Anaisa & Call Margot (The Prime Stalkers): These two present the perfect blend of race shape and biomechanics. Both possess elite VS Par figures (-0.90s and -1.03s), and crucially, both are classified as "Prominent" runners. They are perfectly positioned to track the 5-way speed duel and use their superior late velocity to pick up the pieces.
  • Shes Got A Brother (The Class Drop): She boasts the highest Pure Base Class in the race (86.6) after dropping significantly in grade from a Class 1 Listed event at Ayr. While her VS Par (+0.29s) isn't elite, her raw class advantage and prominent running style make her incredibly dangerous.
Instructions for the 10-Minute Update: When you post the live Betfair flow, we are looking for the sharp money to isolate the winner of the tactical battle between the stalkers (Anaisa, Shes Got A Brother, Call Margot, Jer Batt). If the herd is blindly steaming the front-runners (Startling, Mo Of Cairo), we will happily take them on.

Drop the live feed 10 minutes before the off!
Click to expand...
Gate 4 Final Verification: The Market Flipped

This 7-minute snapshot is exactly why we never lock a bet in early. The late liquidity just violently reshaped the board and saved us from a massive trap.

Here is how the three specific triggers we were watching played out:

1. Jer Batt's Anchor Collapsed (HARD VETO) In just 7 minutes, his Back/Lay ratio completely inverted. He went from a rock-solid 1.9x to a dismal 0.5x PR (£169 Back vs £332 Lay). The smart money that was anchoring his price suddenly flipped and started laying him heavily. We do not argue with a 0.5x PR inside the 10-minute window. Action: Veto.

2. Mo Of Cairo's Vulnerability Confirmed (PASS) As predicted by Gate 1, the professional layers are taking him on. Despite being the favorite, he is taking more Lay pressure than Back pressure (£658 Lay vs £560 Back = 0.9x PR). They know the 5-way pace duel makes him mathematically vulnerable. Action: Pass.

3. The Sharp Stalkers (THE STRIKES) With the favorite taking lay pressure and Jer Batt effectively dead in the water, the smart money has aggressively pivoted to the two horses perfectly positioned to stalk the pace collapse:

  • Shes Got A Brother: Her class-drop advantage is being heavily respected. She has shortened again to 14.0, but the volume is explosive: she boasts a massive 2.2x PR (£189 Back vs £85 Lay) with heavy, steady flow.
  • Anaisa: Her momentum is holding strong. Her 32% steam remains intact at 17.0, and she is dominating the order book with a 2.3x PR (£211 Back vs £90 Lay). The sharps clearly believe her elite -0.90s VS Par will play perfectly late.

FINAL VERDICT: PIVOT TO THE SMART MONEY​

Gate 4 just vetoed our initial primary target (Jer Batt) due to heavy late lay pressure. We pivot strictly to the two prominent stalkers who possess the mathematical engine and are taking aggressive sharp money.

Since we are playing single-selection value, you have two elite, double-digit targets to choose from based on your preference:

  • The Class Strike: Shes Got A Brother (14.0) – Dropping from Class 1 Listed company to a Class 4, taking massive 2.2x Back pressure, and perfectly positioned off the pace.
  • The Mechanical Strike: Anaisa (17.0) – The elite -0.90s VS Par engine, backed by 2.3x PR and a 32% stable steam alert.
 
Tufnel said:
Everytime I run tests on several years races I often see a distinct bias towards class 3 and 4 races over the class 2 on the flat and class 1 over jumps. The idea that it is the best races that feature the most consistent horses doesn’t seem to be borne out by the data.
Click to expand...
This is what I get if I replicate the metrics in Lee Selections for the present day (2024 to most recent ) I have not used Key Data either .

IMG_1032.jpeg
 
Is this the one you mean, nagwa nagwa? (Posted on this forum and addressed to Mtoto.)

"I hope you’re well? If my memory serves me correct I believe the last time we spoke you were in hospital, or had just been discharged? I’ve had a quick look through this thread and it’s quite astounding that VDW is still being discussed at length. It’s such a long time since Matt (Guest), you, and myself were thrashing out the very same subject in that yahoo ‘vdw methodology’ group all those years ago. I’m surprised not to see Fulham on here?

Anyway, the betting market is just another important part of form. The odds that a horse starts at is just another rating. But in my experience, it's an extremely accurate one when used in conjunction with everything else; it's a by-product of some knowledgeable opinion. I believe, after extensive research that it was part of VDW’s 2nd numerical picture and if one implements the odds in conjunction with a horses placing’s they will not fail to increase their strike rate and profitability.

Imagine our selection, Horse A, being beaten in to 2nd place last time out ‘making headway 2 furlongs out, staying on final in the final furlong’ beaten by the favourite Horse B. Horse B was coming from a higher class race where it finished a close 3rd, but it was giving bags of weight to the winner Horse C. Horse C was favourite to win the race. Horse C was coming from a lower class race and finished a close 2nd, and was 2nd favourite. The race was won by the favourite.

This part of Horse A’s form stands up. Was a second place last time out justifiable? Yes is the answer in this case and we don't have to go back very far to get the answer, we just have to look what Horse A beat or was beaten by. Sometimes we have to go back further in to the form book until we reach the answer, but it is there every time one way or another.

If people are interested they should run this exercise on all the horses mentioned as winners in Systematic betting. Keep in mind a rating between 1 and 3 for both placing and position in the market. Go back as far as you can checking what each horse beat or was beaten by. If the horse in question was 3rd ask if that position was justified based on the form of the horse that finished 1st. As soon as the position is justified move on until the horses recent form has been confirmed. I guarantee that this little exercise will be enlightening.

There are obviously infinite permutations but where a horse finishes anything other than first in its most recent races (normally 3 is enough) we should ask if its finishing position was justified.

Of course the above needs balancing with class, but the good ones stand out like sore thumbs.

It’s all down to temperament and the odds ;-) we’re simply attempting to stack the odds in firmly in our favour.

Good luck all, hope this post helps a little."
 
Tufnel said:
Excellent strike rates. Not sure most could have the patience to limit themselves to 70 bets over almost 3 years though.
Hall reckons he had 32 bets just in the first 6-8 weeks of the flat.
Click to expand...
Lee was involved in Grp and listed so you could probably increase the numbers. Also not explored AW

IMG_1037.jpeg
 
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nagwa nagwa

From the 39 selections VDW gave which he stated he had backed, or described as certainties or outstanding bets which suggests he had:

18 were favourites
9 were 2nd favs
10 were 3rd favs
2 were 4th favs

There is very little difference between the 23 going up in class and the 16 dropping in class.

I don't have the forecast market positions, which in any case would differ somewhat paper to paper, but he seems not to have strayed from the front end of the market.

He claimed winners at all prices, which is fair from the 39. Three were odds on, the longest price 14/1 and the average (mean) 4.5. Elsewhere, not included in my 39, he claimed Desert Hero which won at 20/1.
 
Tufnel said:
Unfortunately I have other things to do today and no real time to get involved but here is one race I did the figures for that shows the pos vs market pos ratings too. It's a class 4 Hcp so the data stats for that are below also.

The top 4 pos vs mkt are marked off and that shows 76% of winners captured for an average of 6.3 runners per race. There are only 4 runners in this race indicated though.
2 of them are also one of the Erin 3.
3 are also marked in the consistency column.

Interesting that current fav Tiernan does not feature in any of the green columns, but is a form horse, but then so are most of the field.

Seems a race of conflict to me and the form for the green horses doesn't seem exciting in any case.

View attachment 172022

View attachment 172023
Click to expand...
So what was interesting in this race was the fact that the only 2 horses in the field with a colour in the 5 columns was Forever Penywern and Time Thief who Won at 12/1.

The reason I picked this race to do the sheet on was because it was a class 4 handicap, but also it had some fairly low consistency and Erin numbers. The fact that the market rank - placing idea that R rave154 put forward had the winner as one of only 2 horses with a perfect zero index might be useful for the future.

I now need to run the checks on actual index scores rather than just top ranking groups.
 
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