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Erin Letter

Bobajobber

Bobajobber

Mare
Narrow The Field To Gain Winning Strip

In response to G.Hall (16-2-78) perhaps the following will provide food for thought. It is not a
system, but one of many ways to narrow the field and at the same time put the odds in your favour.
I suggest that two factors can be coupled together to leave three horses for consideration.

First, consistent horses win a high percentage of races. Second, the first five in the betting
forecast in non-handicaps and the first six in handicaps, produce a high percentage of winners.
If we add the last three placings of the respective horses in the betting forecast together, we have a
numerical picture.
This can be very illuminating and show, subject to other considerations, the good betting propositions.
A high percentage of winners come from the three lowest figures,Leaving out sellers and novice handicaps it often
traps the winner in all races on the card.

As I write the only race in my paper which was 'on' -the Erin Foods Champion Hurdle at
Leopardstown broke down as under - * is used to indicate the three probables.


Decent Fellow ............. 7
Beacon Light ............... 3*
Monksfield ................. 16
Prominent King ............ 5*
Mr Kildare...........3*

Kildare had only two placings so the last placing was added on.

Using two methods of rating all five horses, I found that the three starred horses
came out best. Both methods showed Beacon Light well out of it and his last race had been a
hard one against Sea Pigeon so I was left with Prominent King and Mr Kildare.

Prominent King had the edge by one method and was level using the other. Checking the form,
Prominent King was coming out of handicap company where he shouldered a massive 12-7 last time out
going under by five lengths to Drumgora also in this race on 17lb worse terms.

Mr Kildare, an odds-on winner last time out not against much opposition, was set to carry 5lb more.
Prominent King coming out of handicap company with 15lb less to carry and on the same course
looked a good proposition. It duly obliged at 6-1, Mr Kildare following him home at 5-1.

With a sensible staking plan, the method works well for me. But remember, you do not HAVE to
have a bet, but when you do, load the odds in your favour. In conclusion, may I say to G.Hall that
we are all novices, it is just that some have been so for longer.

C Van der Wheil
Market Harborough.
 
vdw set some puzzle here with this letter, remember reading that in the handicap book some time back lol...still trying to fathom out what vdw meant by his two methods of rating beacon light well out of it his last race had been a hard one against sea pigeon so i was left with prominent king and mr kildare prominent king had the edge by one method and was level using the other later on vdw was asked about commerical ratings he mentioned haig ratings does anyone have any information on this
 
2 ways of rating,i,ve always thought that one set is weight movement from lto,i have no way to prove this its just a hunch with him going on to talk about prominent kings weight movement from lto and maybe its links to the weights right rating....dont know...les
 
think if prominent king had been beaten 5l by drumgora lto and there was now a 17lbs pull it would show up in a handicap rating from lto...no?
 
two most important aspects i feel are how vdw worked out the porbables and vdw 2 methods of rating
 
balance is my thing if you dont have your selection balanced its not for me... i only back class/form horses now and only use the betting as my shortlist,then its ..see if its balanced ...not carrying to much weight,not going up in class to much ect ect...done 10 races by sporting lifes forcast on saturday backed 3 and thought big fella thanks was a good thing,6/1 to....an 1/1 shot and a pulled up in the welsh national but a good day....its all about waiting for the right class/form horse and then how it is balanced with the other horses in the forcast....les
 
Nagwa,

He says at the begining two factors can be coupled toghether, on all formus and the internet I dont think anybody ever either got them or disclosed there findings, and the race was then passed over when he started to talk about Ability ratings and consistent horses.

However I can only imagine, in the following next few years he still used this to eliminate and confirm selections its just other factors seemed to get grasped.

Cheers
 
topspeed and rpr do me, no time for weights right or speed figures of my own, just need to read these better if we have all the books then there is lots and lots of wee tricks to watch for,to many at first but with use vdw makes it a lot easier to read....after all read whats there..les
 
a significant factor with regard to racing that is apparently not know or completely ignored by the vast majority of punters is that of class,...i take it its weights right your talking about bob....think its a good rating to show class...les
 
I don't personally use the weights rating, although if I did, I would only use as a guide.

Enoch I know you do really well with your ratings, but that is down to understanding how they work specifically for you, I am not in anyway saying its not the way to go, I will say they are not the way VDW was showing us.

VDW tells us there is a difference between Ratings and Rating

Ratings are are numerical base

Rating is more of a data importance
 
you can see that im in a bit of a quandary here i love my vdw and love my forums,but it aint vdw that im doin and i,ve still a poor understanding at times
but here i am plodding away,as long as your all happy with my mish mash version i,m happy to come on and watch the likes of yourself and put up what i think.....by the way was big fella thanks a good thing?
 
Bobajobber said:
I think if you look carefully at the 'Golden Years' book and his reply to Mr Hollis.

This may help you.
Click to expand...

bobajobber is that what vdw used in his speed is no use without form letter
 
enoch said:
you can see that im in a bit of a quandary here i love my vdw and love my forums,but it aint vdw that im doin and i,ve still a poor understanding at times
but here i am plodding away,as long as your all happy with my mish mash version i,m happy to come on and watch the likes of yourself and put up what i think.....by the way was big fella thanks a good thing?
Click to expand...

Nothing wrong with what you do Enoch, I sure you have real good days and I know that you have offered them up to others, I did see your recent postings on UKBT and I think you have a good way and thought about the races.
I also noted your frustrations at others not joining in and rightly so, we have a better bunch here and hope you will see the difference.

Not sure if you can see the inner sanctum, but if you can or when you do, read the VDW thread in there, it may create some thought.
 
nagwa said:
Bobajobber said:
I think if you look carefully at the 'Golden Years' book and his reply to Mr Hollis.

This may help you.
Click to expand...

bobajobber is that what vdw used in his speed is no use without form letter
Click to expand...


No Magic Formula and Method Not Rules, both replies
 
Pingman said:
Nagwa,

He says at the begining two factors can be coupled toghether
Click to expand...
Pingman
The way I understood the above was the first/six in the betting forcast and adding up of their last three placings, he said to keep it simple. In a later post he refered back to the Erin saying it was elementary letter.
Downey
 
Downey,

All i can see is the letter, if you look at the form placings its one factor, i think there is more to it, and its also mentioned in the Cobnut letter, and thats another one that seems to have been passed over , all I can think of is its a seller and therefore not important to the big picture

cheers
 
think it was lee who said on another forum..the old feller letter was a masterclass in form by vdw
 
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