• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Eric Bowers narrowing the field

billybob said:
Some of these you have named as lurchers. Maybe trying to learn from people with far more experience/knowledge than themselves. I count myself as one of those. It would be silly for me to put up a selection, when faced with what I see as so many experienced contributors.
Click to expand...
You have been a registered member since 2021 and have made two posts this week. That’s a start . You only become experienced by posting your thoughts on one of the selected races. It does not matter if your analysis does not work out with regards the result. It is taking part and contributing that counts. We all started out like you seem to think your abilities are at now.

If we all took your position on posting there would be nothing for you to read.

I have noticed that the odds on some of the selections are shortening by the start of the race . Yesterday Realign was available at 6/1 , but by the start of the race was down to 10/3 Fav

The Inner Sanctum​

If you want access you need to contribute to the forum by taking part in discussions and making useful posts.
 
Last edited:
This one is deff going great guns for sure well done all guys your deff getting in swing of it. I can see Chesham Chesham point he has gave a lot here and he always does.
I ma trying new thing myself just now i have called it the gospel system trying to make it as simple as i can although there is reasons why i am making it simple to as all the work put into form and times and analysing i thought about how can you put so much in and get so little back at times for your work. That made me think maybe its like golf the swing takes 1 minute tops yet all the still moves they show you on you tube you would think it was a long process to swing it to hit ball.
So on my own thoughts we could right down everything that you need in arace to go right or wrong and once you have added it all in i have seen some in here say can be 2o diff things even top analysing 200 things yet a race is some time only a minute so surely its run and over before you know it and got to be more simple and thats why i am trying this out simple is easy yet is it possible to do it simple time will tell 5 things go into my new system thats it.
 
billybob said:
Some of these you have named as lurchers. Maybe trying to learn from people with far more experience/knowledge than themselves. I count myself as one of those. It would be silly for me to put up a selection, when faced with what I see as so many experienced contributors.
Click to expand...
B billybob Absolutely post up selections, the more people who get involved the better. I am by no means anywhere near as experienced as most on here, but a little bit of learning, asking questions, taking in the vast knowledge on here by some great posters has helped me no ends. All of which are happy to share their experience.

Cheers
 
billybob said:
Some of these you have named as lurchers. Maybe trying to learn from people with far more experience/knowledge than themselves. I count myself as one of those. It would be silly for me to put up a selection, when faced with what I see as so many experienced contributors.
Click to expand...
In 2021 I put up a few selections thinking I'd be laughed off the board but was amazed by the help and advice of others which continues to this day.
I enjoy seeing new posters putting their thoughts and ideas up too. If you post any selections I can absolutely guarantee people will say well done when you win.
 
The 14:50 at Newbury has been flagged up for me. Applying my 'winner in the race' test comes out with River King:

  • High enough on ability/class? Yes (TF 95/98, top three).
  • Genuinely in form? Yes — progressive, close second on hcap debut.
  • Consistent/reliable under conditions? Yes — most consistent profile in the race; proven Gd/Frm and at the trip.
  • Well placed by the trainer? Yes — Hannon, gelded, dropped to a winnable C4 off a lenient mark.
  • Trip/going/course/weight/pace acceptable and free of serious pace risk? Largely yes — pace projected to suit (per the specific hint), well treated; only mild questions are Newbury-course-unproven and a jockey change.
  • Strong reason it can win, not just run well? Yes — progressive + well treated + tactically well placed.
  • Price acceptable? Borderline — 11/4‑7/2 is fair but not a clear overlay for a one-win horse.
This was run last night, so price may be different now.

The ratings have Classic Encounter and Green Triangle as the primary threats.

I'm trying to work a sectional review into the analysis. Feeding River King's last 3 races into the analysis:

  • Won: Time Index 5.2, Vs.Par +0.40 — a steadily-run race. Ridden handy, FSP 106.8%, and he posted the fastest 8th and 9th furlongs in the race (11.74, 11.48). Controlled it and quickened.
  • 2nd by neck: Time Index 4.9, Vs.Par +1.47 — slowly run. Held up off the pace, produced the quickest 8f and 9f sectionals of the field, FSP 112.8%. Closed into a crawl and just failed.
  • 3rd, ~3¼l: Time Index 9.0, Vs.Par −2.23 — a fast, truly-run race. Raced prominently, FSP dropped to 100.2%, and he flattened out in the final furlong (12.49, +1.04 off the sectional leader, slipping from 2nd/3rd to 3rd).
The shape is clean and unhelpful for today. His finishing kick — the thing his price is built on — only fires when the race is run steadily and the trip is 10f. The one time he met a fast, truly-run gallop at eight furlongs, the kick wasn't there and he plateaued late. Today is 8f, good to firm, on a straight where the pace tends to be honest: it resembles his one flat run far more than his two good ones.

I need to run the analysis for the other contenders, but hopefully layering several methods of analysis can help refine the field.
 
Continuing to play around with the newspaper form cards and Copilot.

2.50 Newbury – Combined Weighted Score (Pace + Draw + OR + RPR)​

(Pace 30%, Draw 20%, OR 20%, RPR 30%)

HorsePace (30%)Draw (20%)OR (20%)RPR (30%)Total
Classic Encounter98898.5
River King888108.4
Green Triangle68897.6
Electrifarhh87777.4
North View67697.0
Herculeus67787.0
Knights Gold56766.4
Noodle Mission355106.3
The Third Star56596.3
Jakarta56666.2
Freddie’s Star35495.6
Lunario45485.4
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top