• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Couldn’t agree more, JennyK about the disaster that is today’s Racing Post cards. Why can’t these nerds just leave things alone. Changes are supposed to be for improvement and ease of use. I’ve been trying to fathom my way through these new cards all day today, cursing level is above average even for me.
y
 
Probably only did it to stop people using there formulas and the like as they want you to pay for their info.
Even the giuhorse exe doesn't work to the ratings either
 
I would be happy to pay a subscription to the Post for their cards and results. The trouble is all their packages include what they presumably think are attractions - their tipsters and ratings - which to me are wholly unwanted. THE real plus for me with the Post is its database of results, including foreign ones, which as far as I can see is unrivalled in what the likes of the Life and ATR offer.
 
""We" would have to create our own database/form book going forward, maybe not a bad thing."

Effectively, I already have, DuckandDive DuckandDive, as can anyone, but the problem is updating. On a busy day there can be six UK Flat meetings. If they have 6-7 races each, that is around forty results. For each horse I need ten pieces of horse-specific data (name, trainer, weight, claim if any, OR, place, distance won or beaten by, age, sp and draw). Assuming the coding in my application can be modified to cope with the Post's change it will still take the best part of an hour to add forty results to my base. Adding those ten bits of data manually for each horse, and the common data (date, course, penalty value, distance, going etc) which of course can be dragged down an Excel column once it has been added for the winner, would make updating impossible.

There are of course alternatives, especially the Life, and if adjusting coding for the Post's card changes proves impossible, that will be where I look next. I expect things will work out, though, because when I copy the "compact" card and paste it into my application, the data looks much the same as with the "at a glance" version. But the coding that then selects the elements of the pasted data I want, and puts them into the format needed for my base, needs modification well above my competence. A much more knowledgeable friend is currently working on it, so my fingers are metaphorically crossed.

If the Post does fiddle with the format for its results, I doubt it will be as significant as with the cards, because they will want the data for new results to match that (right back to 1988) already in their database.
 
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DuckandDive said:
Yep, the pawras pawras website is free to use and very useful. as it can be copy and pasted directly into excel.
Back That Horse

View attachment 167323

Saddle No.
Horse name
OR
Distance
Going
Course
Runs to-date
Days since last run
--
Trainer Ratings (Course)
Jockey Ratings (Course)
Age
Form-lines
Progressive types
---
A Master Rating that calculates all the factors if time limited to create your own.

--

...and a tonne of other stuff if it takes your fancy.

View attachment 167324
Click to expand...
In the next few weeks I'm going to add £s per run into my online card, I've shown on here previously that it's stronger/better assessment/kpi than the VDW Ability rating.
It's already integrated into the master rating but like lots of things I just don't show it on the card.
Anyway from a post I made in 2018, it's looking at the strike when blindly backing the standalone top rated for each of the kpi's shown over about a 15yr period, flat and jumps in uk/ire

1779265133192.png
 
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Here's an early review of the 8.00 Kempton (Class 4). Picture could of course change near the off, if market changes significantly.
Prices currently taken from Bet365 as Betfair low on liquidity.

The aptly named, I'm Working On It, is not quite value, but would serve as insurance cover on the other 2. (Chalk Mountain & Bell Shot)

1779271515661.png

The ole 1-2-3!

1779304738706.png
 
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Sullybomb said:
Just wait til they change the results formatting, or hide that behind a paywall. :idk:
Click to expand...

The paywall seems to be way they want to go. They'd have to reduce the monthly cost to get paid though. "We" would have to create our own database/form book going forward, maybe not a bad thing.

I like the idea of us with our own data base with a small fee to those that would use it, that way keeps the forum going with the donation of what ever for the use of it per month.
What do you think. Would like a comment from those that would use it, I'd be for it.
 
Michael231 said:
I like the idea of us with our own data base with a small fee to those that would use it, that way keeps the forum going with the donation of what ever for the use of it per month.
What do you think. Would like a comment from those that would use it, I'd be for it.
Click to expand...

I think the forum has tried something on those lines before, I could be wrong.

From my perspective, the exploration of data and combining it together, is more a personal journey. Creating an accurate database that would be easy to access for everyone, would likely require coding of sorts, and responsibility if being paid for.

An example is this one. No idea how good/accurate they are, but if I decided to go that direction, it might be a fair starting point. (looks quite heavy though)

Access Horse Racing Database - Horse Racing Results Racecard Data App Database
 
Hi DuckandDive DuckandDive
Would that be okay as using a named database they the company might not like it and want everyone using it to pay for it.
It's not a bad price considering what you get, I didn't read all but were the weekly or daily results to keep it up to date in with the price .
 
Michael231 said:
Hi DuckandDive DuckandDive
Would that be okay as using a named database they the company might not like it and want everyone using it to pay for it.
It's not a bad price considering what you get, I didn't read all but were the weekly or daily results to keep it up to date in with the price .
Click to expand...

Good question. I think there's a small charge for updates and it would need some form of intergration. (haven't read it through properly).

Fair use might apply, but they could deny access if they suspected if someone was piggy backing financially on their dime.

It's not a priority right now for me though, i'll keep an eye on it though.
 
DuckandDive said:
I think the forum has tried something on those lines before, I could be wrong.

From my perspective, the exploration of data and combining it together, is more a personal journey. Creating an accurate database that would be easy to access for everyone, would likely require coding of sorts, and responsibility if being paid for.

An example is this one. No idea how good/accurate they are, but if I decided to go that direction, it might be a fair starting point. (looks quite heavy though)

Access Horse Racing Database - Horse Racing Results Racecard Data App Database
Click to expand...
I think that's a really good starting point for anyone wanting to set up their own database.

Access has some nice user friendly features and you can build your own full on app within Access but it's is slower and has limitations compared to a full fat rdbms like sql server, oracle, mysql , sybase , db2, postgres etc etc
 
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AI just gave me this for the 3:42 Ayr for those interested

The 15:42 at Ayr (1m handicap) is a classic Bowers race because there is a massive statistical "cliff" between the top of the market and the rest of the field.
🏆 Corrected Bowers Scores (Ayr 15:42)
Baseline: Kaleido (9st 10lb) is the 0.0 top weight.
Horse Weight Wgt Diff (lbs) Forecast Price Bowers Score
Return To Unit 9st 9lb 1.0 2/1 (2.0) 3.0
Hale End 9st 4lb 6.0 9/2 (4.5) 10.5
Degale 9st 6lb 4.0 6/1 (6.0) 10.0
Kaleido 9st 10lb 0.0 8/1 (8.0) 8.0
Garden Oasis 9st 4lb 6.0 8/1 (8.0) 14.0
🏃 Main Players & Pace Analysis
The Bowers Formula effectively eliminates 8 of the 12 runners, leaving you with just four serious contenders.

🎯 The Standout: Return To Unit
A score of 3.0 is elite for a handicap. He is a "Stalker" from the Roger Varian yard. His weight/price ratio suggests the market expects him to be significantly better than his current rating.
⚡ The Pace Dictator: Garden Oasis
He is the likely leader and "Bowers Spoiler." While his score (14.0) is just above the cutoff, he is the key to the race. If he gets an easy lead, he can outrun his score. If he is pressed too hard by Redarna or Jannas Journey, the race will fall apart for the stalkers.
🛡️ The Solid Option: Degale
With a score of 10.0, he fits the Bowers profile perfectly. He is a "Mid-pack" runner who returned to form recently. He will be looking to follow the "towing" pace set by Garden Oasis.
📈 The Top Weight: Kaleido
With a score of 8.0, he is mathematically stronger than the market leader (Return To Unit) based solely on weight-bearing ability, but his higher price reflects more risk.

📍 Strategic Verdict
In a 12-runner race, Bowers tells you to eliminate 50% of the field.

Discard high-score runners like Geo (24.0), Mr Mistoffelees (28.0), and Redarna (28.5) immediately.
Focus on the battle between the Pace (Garden Oasis) and the Value (Return To Unit).

Because Return To Unit has such a low Bowers score (3.0), he is the primary play. However, if the ground stays "Good to Firm," Garden Oasis becomes a dangerous front-runner despite his slightly higher score.
Would you like me to check the 16:42 Ayr (Division 2) to see if the scores are tighter there? (Note: Sir Paul Ramsey is a non-runner in the 15:42, which slightly shifts the weight baseline for the remaining runners).
 
First One at Yarmouth

🏆 Bowers Scores: Yarmouth 18:40
Baseline: Law Supreme (9st 9lb) is the 0.0 top weight.
Horse Weight Wgt Diff (lbs) Forecast Price Bowers Score
Law Supreme 9st 9lb 0.0 11/2 (5.5) 5.5
Solanna 9st 7lb 2.0 4/1 (4.0) 6.0
Dream Pirate 9st 6lb 3.0 5/1 (5.0) 8.0
Goldie Trickett 9st 2lb 7.0 3/1 (3.0) 10.0
Urban Warrior 8st 11lb 12.0 4/1 (4.0) 16.0
Special Breeze 9st 0lb 9.0 14/1 (14.0) 23.0
Jack Sparowe 9st 0lb 9.0 10/1 (10.0) 19.0
🏃 Pace & Player Breakdown
The Bowers "Elimination Rule" suggests narrowing an 8-runner field down to the top 4. In this race, the scores create a very clear divide at the 10.0 mark.

🎯 The Statistical Winner: Law Supreme
With a score of 5.5, he is the "Class Ceiling" horse. Despite being top weight, the market support is strong enough that he remains the most efficient choice in the field.
⚡ The Pace Dictator: Special Breeze
Looking at the pace, Special Breeze is the most likely to lead. However, with a Bowers score of 23.0, she is a massive "mathematical lay." Bowers logic says front-runners with high scores almost always fade in the final furlong when challenged by low-score stalkers.
🛡️ The Tactical Threat: Solanna
A C&D winner with a tight score of 6.0. She sits in the "Stalker" role and is perfectly weighted to pick up the pieces if the leaders (Special Breeze/Dream Pirate) tire.
📉 The False Favorite? Goldie Trickett
While she is the market favorite (3/1), her Bowers score is 10.0 due to the weight she gives away to the horses above her. She is a "Stalker/Hold-up" horse, meaning she needs a clear run to justify that price.

📍 Final Verdict
Bowers would tell you to ignore the bottom four (Urban Warrior, Jack Sparowe, Special Breeze, and Jack Sparowe) entirely.
The race sits between Law Supreme and Solanna. If you want a single "Bowers Play," it's Law Supreme because he holds the 0.0 weight baseline and a highly competitive score of 5.5.
 
Ive been looking into the track bias that bowers mentioned in one of the attachments Chesham sent a few days ago. I wanted to see if there is still some merit there.

I used HRB for this, now as im dealing with the OR rating and not weight carried, the method Bowers used was all sprint races for the last 6 years and races won by horses carrying at least 8st 13lb. Now, my own take on it using the OR would have ideally used the OR vs the race median, but i dont have access to all the races median so instead i used the OR vs the race average.

So the last 6years or so, ordered by track race %
 

Attachments

  • TrackBias.xlsx
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