Experimental Master Summary: Handicap-Adjusted CCR (Full Comments)| Horse Name | Unadjusted CCR Trajectory (Old CCR + Past OR) | Adjusted CCR Trajectory (Unadjusted CCR - Today's OR) | L3 TFR / Tfig | Full Timeform Race Comments (Last 3 Runs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Roly | 240.00 ➔ 236.96 ➔ 243.39 | 118.00 ➔ 114.96 ➔ 121.39 | TFR:124 ➔ 120 ➔ 110 Tfig:118 ➔ 121 ➔ 48 | 1. quickly resumed winning ways, taking his record over fences to 3-5, his conqueror over C&D last time not on a going day; chased leader, untidy 4 out, produced to lead soon after next, ridden out. 2. has work to do from his revised mark and possibly pressed on too far out, leading until the home turn and no extra on the run-in (lost 2 places). 3. looked rusty after 6 months off (soon behind after early mistakes), though the fact he'd have finished close to Karafon but for being badly hampered at the last suggests he'll prove competitive over the coming weeks with this run under his belt. |
| Tapley | 218.50 ➔ 233.00 ➔ 234.48 | 98.50 ➔ 113.00 ➔ 114.48 | TFR:113 ➔ 120 ➔ 113 Tfig:108 ➔ 98 ➔ 112 | 1. was ridden more aggressively than ideal with another pace-forcer in the field and remains in good form, worth remembering there'll be less competive handicaps for him to contest from this sort of mark over the next few months; disputed lead after second, headed soon after 3 out, one paced. 2. resumed winning ways over the longest trip he's tried, scoring with more authority than the bare margin implies; handy, not fluent first, led approaching tenth, pushed along after 2 out, in command before last, idled near finish, always holding on. 3. found himself in another weak-looking affair and probably remains in form; waited with, effort between 4 out and 3 out, held when mistake 2 out. |
| Okavango Delta | 221.93 ➔ 228.87 ➔ 219.37 | 112.93 ➔ 119.87 ➔ 110.37 | TFR:97 ➔ 109 ➔ 94 Tfig:94 ➔ 106 ➔ 89 | 1. shaped better than at Warwick but was the only one in the field who lost any significant positions in an uneventful affair; handy, pushed along 3 out, left behind gradually. 2. back down in trip, boasts a good record at this track and bounced back to best after 5 months off; raced off the pace, took closer order before seventh, chased leaders 4 out, every chance from next, kept on. 3. wasn't near the same level as here the time before, a jolting early blunder probably a factor; mid-division, bad mistake third, pushed along entering straight, no extra from 2 out. |
| Bagheera Ginge | 229.65 ➔ 229.00 ➔ 189.00 | 110.65 ➔ 110.00 ➔ 70.00 | TFR:108 ➔ 117 ➔ --- Tfig:108 ➔ 76 ➔ --- | 1. had missed another 8 weeks yet backed up his last effort here in again finishing placed; in touch, closing when hit eleventh, jumped on next, ridden when headed 3 out, kept on; he's nearing 2 years without success, however. 2. was much more fluent under a change of jockey in posting a first win in 2 years; made all, kicked clear between 3 out and 2 out, won easily. 3. reverted to his error-prone ways tackling a marathon trip for the first time; waited with, typically made mistakes, pulled up before sixteenth. |
| Arrycan | 173.29 ➔ 203.71 ➔ 196.32 | 68.29 ➔ 98.71 ➔ 91.32 | TFR:51 ➔ 85 ➔ 89 Tfig:41 ➔ 84 ➔ 81 | 1. failed to see out his race for the second time in his last 3 starts; in touch, took closer order before seventh, third home turn, weakened. 2. probably needed the run on first outing since leaving Liam P. Cusack after 6 months off but he's an unreliable 12-y-o so isn't obviously going to be of any more interest next time; in touch, dropped away after 5 out. 3. failed to come on for recent stable debut; disputed lead from second, went on approaching 5 out, not fluent there, headed after 4 out, weakened 2 out. |
| Grillon De Monty | 195.00 ➔ 202.61 ➔ 149.37 | 93.00 ➔ 100.61 ➔ 47.37 | TFR:103 ➔ 96 ➔ --- Tfig:97 ➔ 82 ➔ 34 | 1. was suited by the return to further and quickly resumed winning ways back over fences; handy, mistake first (fluent otherwise), took over eleventh, pressed on 4 out, driven to assert run-in. 2. remains in good form, the only one to put in a serious challenge to the winner and paying for that late on; tracked pace, shaken up home turn, every chance 2 out, weakened final 1f. 3. is much better over fences than hurdles these days and ran no sort of race; mid-division, struggling before 3 out, tailed off. |
Performance Rating Percentage (PR%) Breakdown| Horse Name | Odds Trajectory | L3 PR% Trajectory | Market Performance Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bagheera Ginge | 7/1 ➔ 9/4 ➔ 5/1 | 50.00% ➔ 66.67% ➔ -20.00% | Smashed market expectations in his first two runs before the stamina-draining 3m5f experiment last time out caused a mathematical collapse (Pulled Up). |
| Okavango Delta | 9/1 ➔ 11/1 ➔ 11/2 | 28.57% ➔ 71.43% ➔ 14.29% | A verified overperformer. He obliterated an 11/1 starting price two runs back to finish a close 2nd in an 8-runner field, generating a massive 71.43% PR spike. |
| Tapley | 7/2 ➔ 5/2 ➔ 5/2 | 40.00% ➔ 75.00% ➔ 0.00% | Profited from incredibly weak, small-field races (5 and 4 runners). He meets market expectations but his base numbers are highly inflated by the lack of competition. |
| King Roly | 10/11F ➔ 11/4F ➔ 7/2 | 50.00% ➔ 0.00% ➔ -20.00% | The definition of a regressive profile. He went from outperforming as an odds-on favorite to actively failing the market in his last two starts. |
| Grillon De Monty | 9/1 ➔ 11/2 ➔ 14/1 | 87.50% ➔ 50.00% ➔ 6.67% | Showed massive early value over fences before returning to hurdles last time out, resulting in a total performance collapse. |
| Arrycan | 18/1 ➔ 14/1 ➔ 16/1 | -9.09% ➔ 28.57% ➔ 37.50% | Sneakily beating his double-digit odds, but operating from a very low biological ceiling. |
Tactical Breakdown & Handicap Exposure
Tapley (13/8) & King Roly (15/8) The market has completely misread the top of the weights.
Okavango Delta (13/2) This is exactly what the Adjusted CCR engine was built to find. Bagheera Ginge (8/1) The Dutching Calculator (10-Point Total Stake)
Forgiving the Distance Experiment
The False Favorites Collapsed The Upgraded Dutching Profit
