Earoy thoughts on the race - take the favourite out and this looks wide open from a market view point. This will likely be a strong enough early pace. Twilight Fun, Almaty Star and Grandlad all looking likely to go forward so should give us an honest gallop with a number of prominent racers. Id think ill be looking for something sitting just off the pace in this one. Kinswomen has alot of positives and for me has the strongest overall conditions profile. The combination of pace, strong straight-track and 5f form, plus suitability to quick ground, makes her the standout runner despite the absence. However, ill be wanting something at a bigger price, Rocking Ends appeals with his proven straight-track finishing style which should be suited by todays race, my concern is stall 1 where i think most of the pace is drawn higher. Nogos Dream looks the more solid place/each-way option, not a profilic winner but is solid in various departments and given his race fitness, reliable 5f profile and likely a strong pace to aim at.
Eric Bowers narrowing the field
- Thread starter Olwenba
- Start date
JennyK
Gelding
I see nothing in the VDW ability ratings for the 2.40 Yarmouth which makes me feel the need to adjust or qualify any of them.
In the main sprint handicap, 2.55 York, one of the older horses, Woven, is I think considerably over-rated by his VDW ability rating of 189, based as it is largely on one valuable win in Meydan in 2020. I think his VDW rating calculated over the last three years, 79, probably gives a more accurate reflection.
The two top VDW ability rated, Indian Run and Tropical Storm, strike me as having questionable ratings, based as they are on two non-handicap wins each. Neither has yet followed through with performances in handicaps commensurate with their ratings. When I fully analyse the race, were to I find a lower ability-rated horse who looks otherwise solid, the presence of Indian Run and Tropical Storm in the field would not be an impediment to a bet.
In the main sprint handicap, 2.55 York, one of the older horses, Woven, is I think considerably over-rated by his VDW ability rating of 189, based as it is largely on one valuable win in Meydan in 2020. I think his VDW rating calculated over the last three years, 79, probably gives a more accurate reflection.
The two top VDW ability rated, Indian Run and Tropical Storm, strike me as having questionable ratings, based as they are on two non-handicap wins each. Neither has yet followed through with performances in handicaps commensurate with their ratings. When I fully analyse the race, were to I find a lower ability-rated horse who looks otherwise solid, the presence of Indian Run and Tropical Storm in the field would not be an impediment to a bet.
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Chesham
Sire
The Top Tier: "Above Class" (OR 98 – 103)
These are the class horses of the field according to their ratings, carrying the heaviest weights to equalize their proven advantage.
• Fahrenheit Seven (103) — 20/1
• Pocklington (101) — 9/1
• Kylian (100) — 25/1
• Sir Yoshi (99) — 80/1
• Tuco Salamanca (99) — 6/1
• Binhareer (99) — 7/2
• Fast Track Harry (98) — 16/1
The Middle Tier: "In Class" (OR 91 – 97)
This is the core of the handicap. They sit squarely around the mathematical midpoint (94.5) and carry average weight against horses of very similar current ability, making this a highly competitive block.
• Desert Falcon (97) — 28/1
• Pilgrim (95) — 16/1
• Fandom (95) — 66/1
• Tropical Storm (93) — 12/1
• Sondad (93) — 14/1
• We Never Stop (91) — 66/1
The Bottom Tier: "Below Class" (OR 86 – 90)
Mathematically the lowest-rated horses in the field, stepping up to face significantly tougher opposition but receiving a generous weight advantage from the top tier to balance the scales.
• Russet Gold (90) — 12/1
• Dark Cloud Rising (90) — 66/1
• Wicket Keeper (89) — 66/1
• Strike Red (89) — 18/1
• Indian Run (88) — 33/1
• Rousing Encore (87) — 9/1
• Dark Thirty (87) — 9/1
• American Style (86) — 25/1
• Woven (86) — 50/1
These are the class horses of the field according to their ratings, carrying the heaviest weights to equalize their proven advantage.
• Fahrenheit Seven (103) — 20/1
• Pocklington (101) — 9/1
• Kylian (100) — 25/1
• Sir Yoshi (99) — 80/1
• Tuco Salamanca (99) — 6/1
• Binhareer (99) — 7/2
• Fast Track Harry (98) — 16/1
The Middle Tier: "In Class" (OR 91 – 97)This is the core of the handicap. They sit squarely around the mathematical midpoint (94.5) and carry average weight against horses of very similar current ability, making this a highly competitive block.
• Desert Falcon (97) — 28/1
• Pilgrim (95) — 16/1
• Fandom (95) — 66/1
• Tropical Storm (93) — 12/1
• Sondad (93) — 14/1
• We Never Stop (91) — 66/1
The Bottom Tier: "Below Class" (OR 86 – 90)Mathematically the lowest-rated horses in the field, stepping up to face significantly tougher opposition but receiving a generous weight advantage from the top tier to balance the scales.
• Russet Gold (90) — 12/1
• Dark Cloud Rising (90) — 66/1
• Wicket Keeper (89) — 66/1
• Strike Red (89) — 18/1
• Indian Run (88) — 33/1
• Rousing Encore (87) — 9/1
• Dark Thirty (87) — 9/1
• American Style (86) — 25/1
• Woven (86) — 50/1
gerry
Mare
i think if POCKLINGTON can run to its third here last year which i rate its best ever run which it did not have visor on i might add which it has not today either it will take a lot of beating here its fit from all weather likes here i am just a bit baffled by the wind op if honest although stopped quick last time and the thought something amiss this race will tell us if back on song if it is then it will go close.