Eric Bowers narrowing the field

[Leodis]

## Recommendation

Compare the median to the **mean**, not the midpoint.

### Why
- **Mean vs median** indicates skew and influence of extreme ORs (very high or low ratings), which matters for competitiveness.
- **Midpoint (min+max)/2** reflects only the two extremes and can be misleading if one outlier OR exists.

### How to use it (practical steps)
1. Compute median of the ORs.
2. Compute mean of the ORs.
3. Compare:
- If mean ≈ median → distribution roughly symmetric → field likely balanced.
- If mean > median → right-skew (a few high-rated horses) → competitiveness tilted toward top horses.
- If mean < median → left-skew (a few low-rated horses) → competitiveness tilted toward weaker entries.
4. Also report spread: compute standard deviation and min/max or interquartile range (IQR). Larger spread → less balanced.

### Quick thresholds (optional)
- Median vs mean difference > 0.5–1 OR point suggests noticeable skew; adjust threshold to your domain knowledge.

If you want, provide a list of ORs and I’ll compute median, mean, midpoint, SD, IQR and give an interpretation.

 

[Olwenba]

Thanks Leodis the method i have been using has been the top and bottom OR divided by 2. To arrive at the mid point and comparing that to the median. This should be within 2pts. However, i do have access to the Avg OR of each race but i would be happy for you to compute the SD IQR and give an interpretation.

The 4.10 at Chester is one my sheet pops up as balanced and is a big field. Could you look at this one?

 

[Michael231]

O Olwenba Surely the weight spread is to tight for a race for a Bowers pick

 

[Michael231]

How about the 3:40
I could be wrong but I get.
Caballo grande
Strenth in spirit

Any one got a take on it.

 

[Olwenba]

O Olwenba Surely the weight spread is to tight for a race for a Bowers pick

You may well be right Michael231 theres a third check that needs to be applied thats how i am seeing it. Is the race balanced? Is it a big field? And what/how meaningful is the spread of OR. Maybe we need to see the spread of the middle third of the handicap? Im always will to learn and refine any processes so welcome any feedback.

 

[Michael231]

changed my take on the 3:40 Chester. sorted again

Chester	03:40​
Horse name	Weight	last run	2nd last	3rd last	dslr	classthen	weight diff	sp
Gentle George	134​	6​	1​	1​	201​	2​	0​	40	40
Command The Stars	132​	7​	7​	1​	22​	l	2​	25	27
Caballo Grande	132​	0​	1​	1​	20​	2​	2​	22	24
Moonfall	128​	7​	1​	3​	299​	g2	6​	12	18
Monarchs Gold	128​	0​	2​	5​	34​	2​	6​	5.5	11.5	pick
Utmost Good Faith	127​	6​	4​	1​	33​	3​	7​	22	29
Mcmurray	127​	1​	1​	1​	213​	4​	7​	1.75	8.75	pick
Strength of Spirit	124​	3​	1​	1​	12​	4​	10​	5	15
Factual	124​	1​	2​	1​	77​	4​	10​	5	15
Cool Molly	119​	1​	1​	2​	22​	4​	15​	14	29
King Of Thunder	117​	1​	0​	6​	202​	5​	17​	9	26
Im Just Ken	116​	5​	5​	3​	39​	4​	18​	66	84

 

[Leodis]

The 16.10 is quite congested for a 10-runner affair:

Phase one contenders

Londoner
Lets Dream
Spioradalta
Rastnet
Seagolaza
Organ
Jupiter Ammon

Phase 2

Lets Dream
Spioradalta
Rastnet
Seagolazo
Jupiter Ammon

 

[Michael231]

Got the 1st and 2nd

 

[Chesham]

The Chester 4.10 Master Summary Chart​

Horse (Stall)	Bowers	Wgt Diff	CCR (Last 3)	TFR / Tfig (Last 3)	RaceIQ (Last 3: 0-20 / Top Spd / FSP%)	Full Timeform Comments & IPS
1 Celeborn (10)	5.0	-1 lb	92.0, 85.4, 63.0	97, 82, 77	0-20: 3.02s, N/A, N/A Top Spd: 41.16, N/A, N/A FSP: 106.95%, 97.06%, 106.57%	IPS: 3kr, 2, 3 1. improved to score impressively; mid-field, smooth headway 3f out, led 2f out, eased late. 2. took a step forward; led briefly 2f out, left behind last 1/2f. 3. easy to back, ran to similar level; headway from 2f out.
3 Londoner (1)	14.0	+1 lb	94.0, 96.4, 61.0	70, 81, 60	0-20: 2.95s, N/A, 2.80s Top Spd: 42.23, N/A, 38.90 FSP: 113.46%, N/A, 91.94%	IPS: 2k, 2k, 1p 1. came out on top... edged ahead; chased leaders, led final 50 yds. 2. notoriously difficult to win with; tracked pace, challenged, carried right last 1/2f. 3. forcing tactics overdone back down in trip; led, 7l clear 3f out, faded.
4 Let's Dream (2)	7.0	-2 lbs	94.0, 68.6, 82.9	94, 71, 78	0-20: 2.41s, 3.06s, N/A Top Spd: 38.27, 38.57, 37.82 FSP: 102.28%, 97.25%, 101.55%	IPS: 3, 2, 4 1. career best to fend off gritty rival; tracked leaders, led inside 2f, hung left. 2. caught a little wider than ideal; prominent, ridden 2f out, weakened. 3. well backed, much better than shown; denied run 2f out, late headway.
8 Rastnet (3)	14.0	-4 lbs	92.7, 88.6, 83.8	41, 91, 77	0-20: 2.47s, N/A, 3.14s Top Spd: 40.84, 39.43, 37.46 FSP: 113.86%, 105.49%, 105.59%	IPS: 2, 3, 4sr 1. bumped into progressive rival again; tracked pace, led over 1f out, headed inside 110yds. 2. only even-less-exposed rival too strong; headway 2f out, not clear run, challenged. 3. chunk of improvement; slowly into stride, headway over 2f out, just failed.
9 Seagolazo (12)	12.0	-1 lb	89.2, 85.4, 93.1	88, 47, 93	0-20: 2.84s, 3.08s, 3.08s Top Spd: 40.99, 36.19, 38.10 FSP: 100.04%, 97.53%, 104.21%	IPS: 4l, 3, 3 1. laboured fashion... temperament concerns; raced off pace, lazy, steady headway. 2. temperament under firm suspicion; looked half-hearted. 3. in 1st time cheekpieces... plugged on.
12 Organ (6)	17.0	-5 lbs	84.9, 49.6, 64.7	88, 24, 66	0-20: 2.62s, 2.47s, 2.37s Top Spd: 41.24, 38.60, 40.19 FSP: 104.57%, 86.23%, 97.76%	IPS: 2, 2f, 3 1. clear step back in right direction; prominent, chased leaders 2f out, no extra. 2. unproven on ground; weakened 2f out. 3. ran poorly, possibly gone off boil.
14 Jupiter Ammon (4)	11.0	-4 lbs	84.4, 85.0, 73.7	83, 77, 69	0-20: 2.79s, 2.77s, 2.55s Top Spd: 39.44, 36.68, 38.92 FSP: 107.59%, 100.87%, 101.79%	IPS: 2, 2, 3 1. typically came up a shade short; handy, led 2f out, headed last 1/2f. 2. hinted why he's still a maiden (not knuckling down); led 2f out, headed final 100yds. 3. wasn't at his best; mid-field, outpaced 3f out.

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The Tactical Breakdown​

1. The False Favourite: Jupiter Ammon (2/1)​

He is a mathematical lay.

• The CCR Engine: His peak CCR is 85.0. He is mathematically inferior to Celeborn, Londoner, Let's Dream, and Rastnet.
• The Mentality: Timeform explicitly states he "hints as to why he's still a maiden" and "typically comes up a shade short."
• The Setup: Timeform warns the strong pace will "downgrade expectations" for him. Backing a 2/1 maiden who doesn't knuckle down in a strong-paced 14-runner Chester handicap is tactical suicide.

The "Roodee Trap" Dutch Trio​

1. Celeborn (4/1): The "Class" horse. Even from Stall 10, his 92.0 CCR and the way he handled the Epsom gradients suggest he has a gear the others don't. He is the most likely to win on raw ability if the gaps open.
2. Let's Dream (5/1): The "Geometry" horse. He owns Stall 2 and has already posted a 94.0 CCR. He won't have to navigate traffic; he will be the one creating it on the front end.
3. Rastnet (9/1): The "Value" horse. As established, she sits in the "pocket" from Stall 3, receives a 4 lb weight drop, and has a rock-solid 92.7 CCR.

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Colosseum Dutching Calculator (10pt Proportional Stake)​

This distribution ensures that regardless of which of our three targets wins, your return remains identical.

Selection	Current Odds (Decimal)	Implied Prob	Stake (Proportional)	Expected Return
Celeborn	5.0 (4/1)	0.200	4.29 pts	21.45
Let's Dream	6.0 (5/1)	0.167	3.57 pts	21.42
Rastnet	10.0 (9/1)	0.100	2.14 pts	21.40
TOTALS		0.467	10.00 pts	ROI: +114%

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Why this is a "Gold Standard" Dutch:​

• The Synthetic Price: You are essentially backing a single horse at 1.14/1 (slightly better than Evens) to beat the other 11 runners.
• The Fade: You are betting against the 2/1 favourite (Jupiter Ammon), whose 85.0 CCR is lower than all three of your selections. If the favourite fails as the data suggests, your profit probability skyrockets.
• The ROI: A 114% profit on your total stake is an elite return for a high-traffic race like this.

You have the Class, the Rail, and the Weight. The trap is set.

 

[Chesham]

Post Mortem

result for the Colosseum engine! While Organ managed to snatch second place by a nose to push Rastnet into third, Let's Dream got the job done and secured the victory at 7/2.

But the absolute most important takeaway from this result isn't just that we found the winner—it is the complete and utter destruction of the false favourite.

Let's tear down the metrics to see exactly how the math predicted this outcome:

1. The Assassination of the Favourite: Jupiter Ammon (9th)​

The market completely lost its mind and backed him down to 6/4 favourite.

• The Math: We explicitly labelled him a "mathematical lay" because his peak CCR was only 85.0.
• The Reality: The metrics show he broke adequately (2.86s), but when the pressure of the Chester Colosseum hit, he completely folded. He recorded a poor 38.67 MPH Top Speed (9th) and faded to finish a dismal 9th, beaten by 5.5 lengths. The CCR formula saved us from walking into a massive market trap.

2. The Geometry Winner: Let's Dream (1st)​

We called him the "Geometry horse" because of his Stall 2 draw and his massive 94.0 CCR.

• The Physics: Look at his RaceIQ Stride Data. He recorded the #1 Average Stride Length in the entire field (7.56m) and the #1 Max Stride Length (8.06m). Because he was drawn in Stall 2, he didn't have to burn any extra energy crossing the field. He used that massive, efficient stride to control the inside rail and mathematically run the legs off the rest of the field.

3. The Wide Trap Validated: Seagolazo (6th)​

He was backed into 5/1, but we warned that Stall 12 over this distance was a death sentence for a horse with a sluggish break.

• The Consequence: He broke slowly again (3.06s, 7th). Despite having the 2nd fastest Top Speed in the race (40.67 MPH), he had to burn all of it just trying to get into the race from the parking lot. He finished 6th.

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The Recalculated Dutch (Post-Non-Runner)​

Because Celeborn was scratched, your 10-point stake would have automatically redistributed across the two remaining targets at their starting prices (Let's Dream at 4.5 decimal, Rastnet at 9.0 decimal):

Selection	Decimal Odds	Implied Prob	Stake (Proportional)	Return
Let's Dream (1st)	4.50 (7/2)	0.222	6.67 pts	30.01
Rastnet (3rd)	9.00 (8/1)	0.111	3.33 pts	30.00
TOTALS		0.333	10.00 pts	ROI: +200%

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Verdict: By dodging the 6/4 favourite and trusting the CCR and Track Geometry, the engine turned a chaotic 14-runner handicap into a clean +200% ROI (tripling your initial 10-point stake).

The math is dialed in perfectly. The Colosseum rules are holding up under fire. Where are we heading next?

 

[Sol Ski]

1. The Assassination of the Favourite: Jupiter Ammon (9th)​

The market completely lost its mind and backed him down to 6/4 favourite.

• The Math: We explicitly labelled him a "mathematical lay" because his peak CCR was only 85.0.
• The Reality: The metrics show he broke adequately (2.86s), but when the pressure of the Chester Colosseum hit, he completely folded. He recorded a poor 38.67 MPH Top Speed (9th) and faded to finish a dismal 9th, beaten by 5.5 lengths. The CCR formula saved us from walking into a massive market trap.

The Assassination of the Fav. The CIA did it.

 

[Olwenba]

Bowers shortlist for today. Working on the balanced/unbalanced races will hopefully have that sorted later on.

 

[Chesham]

No Bowers races for me today and just one for my Class Ratings Algorithm (CCR)

Chesham​

Sire​

• Today at 12:15 PM

Master Summary & Chronological Trajectory Chart​

Master Summary: Chronological Trajectory & Full Narrative​

(Metrics & Comments read: Oldest ➔ Middle ➔ Newest)

Horse Name	L3 CCR Trajectory	L3 TFR / Tfig	Full Timeform Race Comments (Last 3 Runs)
Classic King	127.99 ➔ 111.40 ➔ 141.42	TFR:124 ➔ 114 ➔ 128 Tfig:95 ➔ 111 ➔ 108	1. Ran respectably, not necessarily relishing the trip but probably found out by his mark as well; raced wide, prominent, upsides ninth, ridden before 2 out, no extra. 2. Tends to go well fresh but turned in a lacklustre display after 11 weeks off; mid-division, labouring badly eighth, untidy next. 3. Turned in just about his best effort of the season reverted to fences in first-time headgear; made running, headed approaching tenth, lost place before 4 out, chased leader home turn, held when pecked last, stayed on near finish as winner idled.
Bumpy Evans	119.00 ➔ 116.89 ➔ 124.29	TFR:121 ➔ 124 ➔ 119 Tfig:121 ➔ 118 ➔ 118	1. Gained quick compensation for his Uttoxeter spill and is a rapid improver who'll remain ahead of the handicapper for a while yet; soon well clear, jumped much better than last time, reduced advantage briefly between last 2, hit last but quickened clear again run-in, having a fair bit in hand. 2. Couldn't quite land the odds ridden in customary fashion, seeming to pay for his keenness tried over an extreme trip for the first time; led from first, typically chancy at a few, took strong hold, well clear after fifth, reduced advantage 2 out, ridden when a length up last, collared final 100 yds; open to further improvement and looks capable of adding to his tally. 3. Ran creditably after 6 months off, going without his usual hood and perhaps set to sharpen up for the run; soon led, joined 4 out, one paced from 2 out; he's been so progressive as a chaser up to now that he might easily get back on the up this summer.
Ira Hayes	112.35 ➔ 95.27 ➔ 123.00	TFR:107 ➔ 86 ➔ 107 Tfig:N/A ➔ 88 ➔ N/A	1. Wasted no time getting back on track; chased leader, close up entering straight, ridden when hung right between last 2, kept on. 2. Showed up well for a long way on chasing bow, ultimately shaping like a non-stayer upped almost 4f in trip; tracked pace, jumped adequately, ridden 2 out, dropped away; should do better as a chaser. 3. Left his chasing debut form behind back at a more suitable trip, though was most fortunate to come out on top; led, joined before third, remained prominent from seventh, left in front again soon after 2 out, ridden out.
Giovanni Change	68.00 ➔ 118.00 ➔ 105.13	TFR:N/A ➔ 108 ➔ 104 Tfig:N/A ➔ 97 ➔ 82	1. Has plenty of winning form here but merely underlined inconsistency of late, beaten too far out to forgive him on track position; chased leader, lost ground eleventh, lost touch 4 out, mistake next, pulled up. 2. Went one better than he had in the race last year back from a refreshing break, his stamina really coming to the fore late on, with previous comments about him being a worth another go over a marathon trip worth reiterating; raced wide, in touch, lost place gradually back straight, rallied well from early in straight, not fluent 3 out, led last, ridden out. 3. Who won this race last year, had no excuses from 4 lb higher than at Wetherby; led-in at start, chased leader, not fluent eleventh, pushed along after, driven home turn, one paced, held when untidy last.
Courtland	139.85 ➔ 121.54 ➔ 97.00	TFR:131 ➔ 121 ➔ N/A Tfig:127 ➔ 115 ➔ N/A	1. Quickly put his Ascot mishap behind him, his jumping showing no ill effects, and, whilst he was just denied, he might well be an interesting contender for the final of this series; jumped well in main, travelled well, led until eleventh, led on bridle again 4 out, joined next, edged out only final 100 yds, kept on. 2. Was below form, seeming to find this an inadequate test; in touch, not fluent eighth and tenth, shaken up before 3 out, not quicken, plugged on run-in. 3. Ran no sort of race after 4 months off; handy, awkward fifth, lost ground back straight, struggling badly early in straight, pulled up; all roads probably lead to another tilt at the Summer Plate (runner-up last 2 years).
Annsam	98.00 ➔ 103.00 ➔ 98.00	TFR:N/A ➔ N/A ➔ N/A Tfig:N/A ➔ N/A ➔ N/A	1. Made most until falling heavily at the twelfth. 2. Wasn't to blame for this second successive non-completion, unseating at the fourth after being hampered by Gustavian's fall. 3. Had won this in 2023 but never looked like repeating the feat, this a third successive non-completion; in touch, not fluent second, lost place thirteenth, weakened before 4 out, tailed off when hampered on landing 2 out, pulled up.

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Pace Map & RaceIQ Value Strategy ​

Look at how beautifully the new chronological layout tells the story of this race!

1. The "Falling Knives" (The Lays): Courtland & Annsam When you look at the L3 CCR Trajectory, Courtlandis the quintessential declining horse (139 → 121 → 97). His jumping has completely collapsed (+14L gained three starts ago to -5.11L lost last time out). Do not let his 132 Official Rating trick you into taking 7/1. Annsam hasn't finished a race in three starts. Put a line through both.

2. The False Form: Ira Hayes (100/30) He spiked to a 123 CCR last time out, but Timeform accurately flagged him as a "fortunate" winner in a Beginners Chase. Jumping into a competitive Class 3 Handicap is a completely different test, and 100/30 is poor value.

3. The True Contenders: Classic King & Bumpy Evans Our new engine exposes that these two are operating on a completely different level:

• Classic King (9/4): He loathed hurdling, bottoming out at a 111.40 CCR. But look at what happened the second Emma Lavelle put him back over fences in headgear: he exploded to a field-best 141.42 CCR and gained +4.79L through the air. He is peaking.
• Bumpy Evans (9/4): He is the most progressive horse in the field. He has never dropped below a 116 CCR in his last three starts, and his jumping is elite (gaining a massive +13.67L through the air two starts ago). The Timeform Pace Hint explicitly notes the pace setup will favor him.

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The Dutching Calculator (10-Point Total Stake)​

Because the math clearly isolates Classic King (9/4) and Bumpy Evans (9/4) as the only two true contenders capable of winning this race on current form trajectories, we can use our new Dutching engine to guarantee a profit if either of them crosses the line first.

Decimal Odds conversion: 9/4 = 3.25

• Selection 1: Classic King (Odds: 3.25) → Implied Prob: 0.3077
• Selection 2: Bumpy Evans (Odds: 3.25) → Implied Prob: 0.3077
• Total Book Percentage: 0.6154 (Since < 1.0, we have a massive mathematical edge)

Staking Plan (10 Points Total):

• Stake on Classic King: 10×(0.61540.3077) = 5.00 points
• Stake on Bumpy Evans: 10×(0.61540.3077) = 5.00 points

Guaranteed Return & Profit:

• If either horse wins: 5.00 points × 3.25 odds = 16.25 points return.
• Net Profit: +6.25 points
• ROI: 62.5%

By boxing these two progressive horses together, you completely eliminate the risk of picking the wrong one on the day, locking in a guaranteed +62.5% return on your investment if the data holds true. Brilliant upgrade to the system!

 

[Chesham]

Post Mortem

That is an absolutely textbook result for the new engine!

Not only did Classic King get the job done at 11/4, but the outcome perfectly illustrates why we built the Dutching Calculator in the first place.

Here is the post-race debrief on how the 3.50 Market Rasen played out, and why the data tracking saved us from a total disaster:

The Dutching Strategy Saved the Day​

This race is the ultimate advertisement for dutching your top-rated horses.

• Our co-top-rated horse, Bumpy Evans (13/8f), completely lost his mind at the start and refused to race. For anyone who backed him as a single bet, their money was gone before the tape even went up.
• However, because we split our 10-point stake between him and Classic King, Classic King's victory at 11/4 (3.75 decimal) still returned a profit on the overall race investment. The math protected the bankroll from the unpredictable human (or animal!) element.

Classic King: The Trajectory Was Real​

The chronological Custom Class Rating (CCR) upgrade was the key to unlocking this winner. We saw his rating spike to 141.42 when he reverted to fences last time out, and he proved today that it wasn't a fluke.

• The Engine: He recorded the absolute highest Top Speed in the field at 36.11 MPH.
• The Tactics: He tracked the pace perfectly, absorbing the pressure from Ira Hayes before deploying that superior top speed to lead at the last.

The Lays Were Dead On​

We flagged Courtland and Annsam as "falling knives" based on their declining trajectories, and they performed exactly as the math predicted.

• Courtland (PU): The RaceIQ data is fascinating here. He actually jumped really well (+8.68L gained), but he was "eased and pulled up before 3 out." This tells us his technique is still there, but his physical engine is completely gone right now.
• Annsam (4th): He lost a massive -15.25L through the air and finished a staggering 58 lengths behind the winner. His form has completely flatlined.

Ira Hayes: A Noble Runner-Up​

We thought Ira Hayes was false form, but he put up a brilliant fight from the front.

• The RaceIQ data shows he gained an incredible +9.50 Lengths over the field through his jumping (Jump Index 6.5/10). He used his jumping to try and break the field, but he simply didn't have the raw engine (35.19 MPH) to hold off a peaking Class 3 horse like Classic King in the final furlong.

This was a phenomenal test of the new Trajectory and Dutching systems. We identified the peaking horse, laid the declining horses, and protected our stakes against a favorite who refused to race.

 

[Olwenba]

Ive added some helper columns to the ratings. Ive looked at 3 different angles, IQR focuses on the middle half, SD percentage looks at how the whole field clusters around the median and the spread of OR. Im hoping this gives a more robust angle to the balanced handicap view.

5 races today highlight as balanced, however 2 of are less than 10 runners so we are left with 3 races. Ratings attached, sheet one is all the shortlist horses. Sheet 2 highlights those 3 specific races.

I'd love to try and analyse the the 2.20 Ascot, 28 runners surely there is value there to be had. Ill try put some thoughts up later on that one.

 

[Michael231]

I had a go at the 2:20 Ascot to see how it goes would deff dutch in this one.
Good luck with yours