Eric Bowers narrowing the field
- Thread starter Olwenba
- Start date
formtheory
Stallion
Chesham
Sire
Thanks
formtheory much appreciated
formtheory much appreciated
Excellent analyses from.From my own bowers, i noticed a formula error and it listed a couple races in error, i think ive got that corrected now. Bowers ratings for today. Only 1 race to qualify on both field size and balanced the 2.55 Newmarket. Ive had a look myself and Many Men is my selection, albeit a tenetative one as a race lacking any real pace this may not be run to suit, but plenty come without a run and this season so far and hoping this ine rides up with the pace a little more.
Chesham
Sire
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Dramatic Star (5/1) The engine loves him. He drops 5 lbs of physical weight, gets first-time cheekpieces from William Haggas, and maps to sit perfectly prominent. Timeform explicitly states the predicted "Even" pace will play perfectly to his strengths, and his 101 TFR three starts ago proves he possesses the class to win this off 8-12.
The Featherweight Stamina Bomb: Goblet Of Fire (5/1) This is exactly why we implemented the fast-ground stamina protocol. Nicky Henderson has him carrying an absurdly light 8st 3lbs. He drops an incredible 13 lbs from his last flat run. He maps to race prominently alongside Dramatic Star. In an even-paced race, the horses carrying 9st 12lbs simply will not be able to catch a horse carrying 8st 3lbs that gets first run in the straight. He is a massive biomechanical threat.
Kihavah (12/1) He possesses the elite structural class (CCR 104) to win this. More importantly, the H2H matrix mathematically hands him the race over the favourite. 253 days ago, Kihavah beat Subsequent over this exact 1m 6f trip at York off level weights. Today, the handicapper has trapped Subsequent under 9st 12lbs, meaning Subsequent must now give Kihavah a massive 5 lbs. At 12/1, backed by elite CCRs and a mathematically insurmountable weight swing over the market leader, he is the definitive target.
The Progressive Class Saver: Many Men (5/1) He is the only other horse producing triple-digit class ratings (CCR 100) on the flat. He is completely unexposed as a 4-year-old stayer, ran a cracker over 1m 6f at York last summer, and Timeform notes he was narrowly denied in a £170k Class 2. While he carries +4 lbs from his last run, his underlying engine is legitimately Class 2 standard.
The Complete Newmarket 2.55 Master Summary Chart
| Horse | Bowers | Weight Diff (Current vs Last Race) | HRB CCR & PR% (Last 3) | TFR / Tfig (Last 3) | RaceIQ Metrics (Last 3: 0-20MPH / Top Spd / FSP%) | Full Timeform Comments & IPS (Most Recent First) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Subsequent | 6.5 (Pace Victim / Top Weight) | 0 lbs (9-12 to 9-12) | CCR:102, 104, 104 PR%:100%, 0%, 0% | TFR: 113, 108, 96 Tfig: 107, 89, 54 | 0-20:N/A, 2.89s, 2.86s Top Spd:38.91, 39.78, 39.71 FSP:106.30%, 106.95%, 111.08% | IPS: 3r, 5s, 4s 1. went one better than in the corresponding event 12 months earlier, proving better than ever in the process and reaffirming the view that he'll be suited by 2m; settled in touch after 2f, shaken up over 2f out, stayed on to lead final 50 yds. 2. in first-time tongue strap, turned in best effort of the season whilst, not for the first time, shaping as if he'll be suited by 2m; dwelt, in rear, pushed along entering straight, headway from 2f out, nearest at the finish; he's still unexposed granted a proper test, longer distances likely to help with regards his slow-starting ways, too. 3. was below form again, 3 weeks on from his return, not ideally placed but not much to encourage either; slowly into stride, held up, effort 3f out, made little impression. |
| 4 Many Men | 11.0 (Tactically Vulnerable) | +4 lbs (9-6 vs 9-2) | CCR:100, 95, 88 PR%:0%, 0%, 100% | TFR: 93, 104, 102 Tfig: 92, 65, 100 | 0-20:3.01s, 2.51s, 2.60s Top Spd:37.14, 37.57, 39.45 FSP:102.01%, 105.00%, 107.36% | IPS: 5s, 4, 4 1. had won on his reappearance last year but perhaps needed the outing this time starting out in an above-average listed race after 6 months off; dwelt, held up, pushed along over 2f out, beaten final 1f. 2. fully confirmed his Melrose form; held up, pushed along over 3f out, headway over 1f out, not quicken inside final 1f. 3. ran a cracker back around 1¾m, improving again and going down only on the nod having been narrowly in front as the line approached; patiently ridden, headway over 3f out, every chance approaching final 1f, pulled clear of rest; he's been an absolute credit to his yard this season and is one of just a handful of 3-y-os entered in the Cesarewitch, but as we've seen a few times in recent seasons, that really is a notably tough race for the Classic generation at the end of a long campaign, just a couple having run it since 2020 and neither doing themselves justice on the day. |
| 2 Kihavah | 17.0 (Positive H2H Swing) | 0 lbs (9-7 to 9-7) | CCR:140(H), 103, 104 PR%:100%, 0%, 0% | TFR:68(UAE), 104(UAE), 40(UAE) Tfig: N/A | 0-20:N/A(H), 2.52s, 2.57s Top Spd:37.49(H), 37.48, 39.29 FSP:111.73%, 98.45%, 106.42% | IPS: 1, 2p, 3s 1. ran poorly back down in trip; led until entering straight, weakened. 2. without the tongue strap this time, wasted no time getting back on track but will remain vulnerable in this company; close up, raced freely, shaken up over 2f out, left behind final 1f. 3. turned in a rare poor effort, presumably not 100% on the day; reared leaving stalls, in touch, weakened entering straight. |
| 5 Align The Stars | 17.0 (Pace Dictator) | -7 lbs (9-2 vs 9-9) | CCR:92, 93, 94 PR%:100%, 0%, 0% | TFR: 103, 94, 88 Tfig: 88, 93, 84 | 0-20:2.81s, 3.09s, 3.37s Top Spd:38.97, 40.65, 37.58 FSP:108.24%, 99.59%, 101.32% | IPS: 2r, 1s, 2s 1. hadn't been quite at his best in the autumn, but was well backed after 6 months off and gained a first win since the summer of 2024, a second successive winner of the race for his stable on just his third all-weather start; never far away, shaken up 3f out, every chance over 1f out, stayed on to lead last ½f, ridden out. 2. was below form on the face of it but not seen to optimum effect, having to recover ground after being sluggish from the outside stall then overdoing the pace, not discredited in the circumstances; missed the break, raced very wide early, led after 1f and went little way clear, headed 2f out, faded. 3. followed a good run with a below-par one after just 6 days off; dwelt, soon close up, took keen hold, shaken up 3f out, lost place over 2f out, faded approaching final 1f. |
| 7 Dramatic Star | 19.0 (Primary Target) | -5 lbs (8-12 vs 9-3) | CCR:93, 94, 92 PR%:0%, 0%, 100% | TFR: 91, 96, 101 Tfig: 84, 75, 92 | 0-20:3.00s, 2.73s, 2.98s Top Spd:37.75, 39.35, 38.13 FSP:103.19%, 108.17%, 104.84% | IPS: 4s, 1, 3k 1. didn't have the race run to suit but still couldn't make the same inroads as the other prominent ones in the betting who came from a similar position; awkward leaving stalls, held up, hung left and met some trouble around 2f out, brief headway over 1f out, no further impression. 2. crept up the weights without winning last year which doesn't make things easy but he possibly needed this a touch after 3 months off, his stable fairly quiet at the moment; led until halfway, pushed along 2f out, no extra final 1f, not knocked about. 3. is evidently well enough treated to be winning similar races but isn't getting much luck this year, perhaps partly down to the odd quirk or 2, but he still only missed out on this by the narrowest of margins back down in trip so he's bound to remain of interest; mid-field, travelled well, headway 3f out, ridden when hung left 2f out, short of room 1f out, switched final 1f, kept on and upsides winner final 100 yds, just failed. |
| 10 Pole Star | 24.5 (Weight Reversal) | -6 lbs (8-9 vs 9-1) | CCR:89, 91, 90 PR%:0%, 0%, 0% | TFR: 90, 85, 96 Tfig: 44, 84, 65 | 0-20:2.97s, 2.64s, 2.77s Top Spd:38.12, 38.02, 38.86 FSP:104.34%, 97.93%, 106.16% | IPS: 2, 3, 3 1. gelded since last seen, is a staying handicapper to be interested in this season but shaped as if needing the run after 6 months off; close up, shaken up 4f out, weakened over 1f out; some of his 3-y-o form reads well and he'll drop back further in the weights after this. 2. had threatened to be suited by the step up in trip but underperformed, the Cesarewitch a notably tough race for 3-y-os, though this shouldn't be held against him with next season in mind, some of his form having a strong look and worth remembering he was unraced as a juvenile; mid-field, ridden over 5f out, beaten 3f out. 3. was ridden closer to the pace than in the Melrose but again shaped as though needing greater emphasis on stamina; in touch, effort 2f out, short of room 1f out, one paced; he's sure to be of interest once stepped up to 2m, the Irish Cesarewitch at the end of the month looking an ideal target. |
| 8 Bahadur | 26.0 (Overachiever) | -13 lbs (8-11 vs 9-10) | CCR:91, 88, 82 PR%:0%, 100%, 100% | TFR: 94, 97, 96 Tfig: 89, 62, 85 | 0-20:2.60s, 2.67s, 2.86s Top Spd:38.98, 38.34, 38.81 FSP:105.72%, 109.80%, 104.01% | IPS: 2, 2, 3 1. shaped as if better for the run after 4 months off, having to work quite hard to get prominent having initially been trapped wide; chased leaders, hampered slightly after 2f, went very prominent around halfway, no extra over 1f out. 2. has taken off since switching to all-weather and dug deep to see out the 2f longer trip and record the hat-trick from 6 lb higher mark; prominent, led under 3f out, ridden early in straight, kept on; he didn't have much to spare at the line but looks a straightforward ride and should remain competitive. 3. is in rude health at the minute, in common with plenty from the stable, and continued his progression swtiched to a handicap, making it 2-2 on all-weather without his rider needing to get overly serious; in touch out wide early, quickened to lead over 2f out, in command entering final 1f, just kept up to work; it's unlikely he's shown all he can just yet. |
| 12 Goblet Of Fire | 28.0 (The Stamina Featherweight) | -13 lbs (8-3 vs 9-2) | CCR:83, 119(H), 80 PR%:0%, 0%, 100% | TFR: 87, 78(H), 86 Tfig: 82, 78, 44 | 0-20:2.78s, N/A, 3.12s Top Spd:39.70, 36.28, 39.16 FSP:106.81%, 88.85%, 110.42% | IPS: 2, 2, 2k 1. who'd had a breathing operation since last seen, ran creditably after 5 months off over a shorter trip than he's been campaigned over of late; prominent, shuffled back to third around halfway, shaken up in fourth over 3f out, not quicken final 1f. 2. found run of good form coming to a halt, not getting home over the longer trip; prominent, weakened before last (usual 3 out). 3. was strong in the betting and enhanced his impressive strike rate over the longest trip he's tackled on the Flat, well positioned but having more in hand than the bare margins imply having been forced to challenge wide; prominent, travelled well, headway out wide entering straight, led approaching final 1f, edged left, pushed out; he'll remain one to be interested in whether kept to this sphere or back over hurdles. |
Dramatic Star (5/1) The engine loves him. He drops 5 lbs of physical weight, gets first-time cheekpieces from William Haggas, and maps to sit perfectly prominent. Timeform explicitly states the predicted "Even" pace will play perfectly to his strengths, and his 101 TFR three starts ago proves he possesses the class to win this off 8-12.The Featherweight Stamina Bomb:
Goblet Of Fire (5/1) This is exactly why we implemented the fast-ground stamina protocol. Nicky Henderson has him carrying an absurdly light 8st 3lbs. He drops an incredible 13 lbs from his last flat run. He maps to race prominently alongside Dramatic Star. In an even-paced race, the horses carrying 9st 12lbs simply will not be able to catch a horse carrying 8st 3lbs that gets first run in the straight. He is a massive biomechanical threat. Kihavah (12/1) He possesses the elite structural class (CCR 104) to win this. More importantly, the H2H matrix mathematically hands him the race over the favourite. 253 days ago, Kihavah beat Subsequent over this exact 1m 6f trip at York off level weights. Today, the handicapper has trapped Subsequent under 9st 12lbs, meaning Subsequent must now give Kihavah a massive 5 lbs. At 12/1, backed by elite CCRs and a mathematically insurmountable weight swing over the market leader, he is the definitive target.The Progressive Class Saver:
Many Men (5/1) He is the only other horse producing triple-digit class ratings (CCR 100) on the flat. He is completely unexposed as a 4-year-old stayer, ran a cracker over 1m 6f at York last summer, and Timeform notes he was narrowly denied in a £170k Class 2. While he carries +4 lbs from his last run, his underlying engine is legitimately Class 2 standard.
Michael231
Gelding
Like the look of Head for freedom today 3.40 Beverley
Was a winner over c and d last May fits the bill for a Bowers I believe and a good price.
The only thing I haven't checked is the pace angle yet will have a look latr as getting dinner ready now.
Was a winner over c and d last May fits the bill for a Bowers I believe and a good price.
The only thing I haven't checked is the pace angle yet will have a look latr as getting dinner ready now.
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