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Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Wd O Olwenba, in the 4.20.

You could also use historical Bower ratings to form another measure of performance.

Lunanera's last few turf handicaps:


LTO 84 (100 - bower rating) -6 (lbs below top OR),+0.5 (finishing length)

83 -1 , -4.5

90.5 -2 , -7.5

87 -1, -0.25

Regards
 
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Only 3/7 on the shortlists yesterday, just an observation that a couple of front of the market horses went in which were not included on the shortlist due to be rated lowly in comparison to the top OR in the race and their OR. It got me thinking, if there is an odds on horse in the forecast prices but yet was 20lb below the top OR horse in the race there a chance this horse doesn't make the shortlist. Both the OR and Fcast price are given equal weighting, should one favour more than the other?
 
That's where the elimination process falls down, O Olwenba. You might end up throwing horses out that perform better at, say 20lb below top OR than a few lbs below it. It also depends on the class ceiling too.
 
I think that you will find that a similar scenario will happen quite often where the forecast favourite and lowest OR win 22% of Races

I was surprised to find after your question that PL is not a more negative figure

IMG_0714.jpegIMG_0713.jpegIMG_0712.jpeg
 
Always looking to add/alter/improve a method and here I've taken a slight twist on the Bower method. Using thebluesbrothers flat pars sheet kindly posted on the thread previously, I've rated each runner (their best ever OR+RPR) to see whether they are above class within class or below class. Colour coded for each. Then used the forecast to select the horses within each class bracket. Still looking to half the field. The * in the end column is the final shortlist using that method. I included the original Bower ratings also and highlighted those.


Screenshot_20240427-142850_Microsoft 365 (Office).jpg
 
Olwenba said:
I've rated each runner (their best ever OR+RPR) to see whether they are above class within class or below class.
Click to expand...

That's a fair idea.

It gives the opportunity to judge recent runs against its' best performance. If it reaches a new best performance on its' last run and the others are still catching up, then jobs a good'un.
 
3 races for this evening I have taken a look at. Used a different variation on the method and going to see how this does in comparison to the basic method. I've taken the expert view of the OH and the RP handicapper. I've left the forecasts odds as were. Not looked at any selection just really seeing if the idea is at least on par (hoping for better) with the basic method in creating a reliable shortlist to work from. The races I'm looking at ideally most the runners have at least 3 ORs to work with, something I didn't really consider previously.
 

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Edit: also those races where there is plenty of form in the book, most runners have had 10+ runs in handicaps so we have an idea of the level of ability they are up to. Hopefully strike abit better than recently.
 
Looked at those with the biggest spread in OR and also the biggest average in Odds and it's thrown up 5 races to look at more. Not had too much time to have a look at the shortlists further but a brief look in the first I did like the look of Kihavah.

time track horse Bower
2.15. York Klondike 4
2.15. York Marhaba The Champ 9.5
2.15. York Crystal Delight 12
2.15. York Kihavah 13
2.15. York Track Of Time (FR) 15
2.15. York Chillingham (IRE) 15
2.15. York Flash Bardot 20

2.45. York Summerghand (IRE) 14.5
2.45. York Aberama Gold 15
2.45. York Makanah 17
2.45. York Lethal Levi 17
2.45. York Great Ambassador 18
2.45. York Magical Spirit (IRE) 20
2.45. York Mr Wagyu (IRE) 20
2.45. York Wobwobwob (IRE) 22
2.45. York Chairmanoftheboard (IRE) 24
2.45. York Badri 25
2.45. York Lethal Nymph 28

4.15. York Fire Demon 7
4.15. York Elmonjed (IRE) 9.5
4.15. York Mortlake (IRE) 10
4.15. York Respectful (IRE) 19
4.15. York Expensive Queen (IRE) 19
4.15. York Ziggys Condor (IRE) 21
4.15. York Thursdays Child 24
4.15. York True Promise 25

5.00. Bath Voodoo Ray (IRE) 3.5
5.00. Bath Midnight Flame (IRE) 12.5
5.00. Bath Sisters In The Sky 14
5.00. Bath Lion Ring (IRE) 14
5.00. Bath My Kind Of Girl (FR) 17
5.00. Bath Darkened Edge 19
5.00. Bath Savalas (IRE) 21
5.00. Bath Autumn Flight (IRE) 23

5.20. York Asgards Captain (IRE) 9
5.20. York Wahraan (FR) 10
5.20. York Arrange (IRE) 12
5.20. York Toshizou (IRE) 13
5.20. York Bringbackmemories (FR) 14
5.20. York Dark Moon Rising (IRE) 15
5.20. York Dancing In Paris (FR) 16.5
5.20. York Thundering 17
5.20. York Skye Breeze (IRE) 17
5.20. York Cardano (USA) 20
 
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