I see that some of the speed lads have given BOLSHOI BALLET a good rating after sundays win and in some small way ZINC WHITE could be said to have further boosted his overall form, it strikes me that this is a good time to discuss the race with the dante on thursday promising to be a good guide.
EPSOM DERBY ?
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The 3rd horse in that race won a Group3 quite comfortably in France today Makaloun
I was impressed by what i saw with BOLSHOI BALLET and there's no doubt it was a worthy performance but as always we have to ask, what did he beat ?
The 2nd LOUGH DERG had already finished behind BB when 4th leop 10f about 3L behind , the 2nd and 3rd are rated about 100 so possitive without being too over complimentary.
The 3rd horse FERNANDO VICHI confirms the same standard of form having competed in the same races so roughly a rating of about 100.
Obviously the interesting horse was the 4th MAC SWINNEY who having won the futurity and a rating of 116 entitled him to go close here if he has trained on, strangely to some perhaps is the thought that had he finished 2nd here i would be more inclined to accept the bare form and therefore give greater credence to BB but the fact is he didn't so i'm a little less certain about the true worth of the form.
Clearly worth trawling through the earlier form for BB and his newm 3rd over a mile was a decent debut but no more.
He confimed that promise when winning his maiden before finishing 4th in france heavy which you could easily excuse.
This brings us back to his two wins this season off 108 & 109 and like always it comes down to interpreting the form and my best guess would be that he sets the standard but i would prefer to keep an open mind just yet.
The 2nd LOUGH DERG had already finished behind BB when 4th leop 10f about 3L behind , the 2nd and 3rd are rated about 100 so possitive without being too over complimentary.
The 3rd horse FERNANDO VICHI confirms the same standard of form having competed in the same races so roughly a rating of about 100.
Obviously the interesting horse was the 4th MAC SWINNEY who having won the futurity and a rating of 116 entitled him to go close here if he has trained on, strangely to some perhaps is the thought that had he finished 2nd here i would be more inclined to accept the bare form and therefore give greater credence to BB but the fact is he didn't so i'm a little less certain about the true worth of the form.
Clearly worth trawling through the earlier form for BB and his newm 3rd over a mile was a decent debut but no more.
He confimed that promise when winning his maiden before finishing 4th in france heavy which you could easily excuse.
This brings us back to his two wins this season off 108 & 109 and like always it comes down to interpreting the form and my best guess would be that he sets the standard but i would prefer to keep an open mind just yet.
Similar to BB the merit of MOHAAFETH'S form looked to be changed out of all recognition with a easy win in a little newm race however he also won by 5L from a couple of decent enough horses, the 2nd SECRET PROTECTER is rated 107 with the 3rd 94 so to concentrate on the 2nd SP had previously shown himself to be a worthy oponent when runner up to HIGHLAND AVENUE 101 in the fielden, it's worth rememberring that the 3rd horse was ROYAL CHAMPION btn 6L with YOUTH SPIRIT a hd behind in 4th and FANCY MAN 2L further behind, that form might be said to have been enhanced in the chester vase.
So how good was MOHAAFETH performance at newm ? well if we take the 5L beating of a horse rated 107 we might guess around 115 or so but add to that the manner of the victory where he simply strolled up leaves me at least wondering if he might be somewhere closer to 120+
Both these two horses are clearly capable and we don't yet know what else might turn up with similar credentials, i have a doubt about MOHAAFETH staying 12f but on balance i think his win was a little better than BOLSHOI BALLET but still a few weeks to go yet.
So how good was MOHAAFETH performance at newm ? well if we take the 5L beating of a horse rated 107 we might guess around 115 or so but add to that the manner of the victory where he simply strolled up leaves me at least wondering if he might be somewhere closer to 120+
Both these two horses are clearly capable and we don't yet know what else might turn up with similar credentials, i have a doubt about MOHAAFETH staying 12f but on balance i think his win was a little better than BOLSHOI BALLET but still a few weeks to go yet.
I'm on a few antepost, but 'tis a bit early yet.
When are the declarations? I want to see Aidan's hand, and, also Jim Bolger might send something, perhaps.
The things I backed were about 40/1, btw.
Then there may be Gosden/Frankie. Will this be Lanfranco's last Derby, do we think?
Dunno.
When are the declarations? I want to see Aidan's hand, and, also Jim Bolger might send something, perhaps.
The things I backed were about 40/1, btw.
Then there may be Gosden/Frankie. Will this be Lanfranco's last Derby, do we think?
Dunno.
I have no interest in timing sectional for U.K. or Irish racing but read this article earlier than suggests the performance was worthy of a 4lb sectional uplift (that’s if you are referring to Bolshoi Ballet), factor in the horse already quickened to win his race and the run comment is ‘easily’ then I don’t know what it means that he took 14,5 seconds for the last furlong. This is Irish racing , I mean is the last furlong a furlong, is the race really 10 furlongs, who knows
Btw I don’t have a strong opinion, if he was 4/1 I would be piling in but 7/4 means I don’t care much, I think he will take a lot of beating fwiw
Time analysis: Graeme North on the Classic Trials
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Larry
Stallion
Very good read O Outlander thanksI have no interest in timing sectional for U.K. or Irish racing but read this article earlier than suggests the performance was worthy of a 4lb sectional uplift (that’s if you are referring to Bolshoi Ballet), factor in the horse already quickened to win his race and the run comment is ‘easily’ then I don’t know what it means that he took 14,5 seconds for the last furlong. This is Irish racing , I mean is the last furlong a furlong, is the race really 10 furlongs, who knows
Btw I don’t have a strong opinion, if he was 4/1 I would be piling in but 7/4 means I don’t care much, I think he will take a lot of beating fwiw
Time analysis: Graeme North on the Classic Trials
Cashelman
Filly
Hi O Outlander my point is he’s slowing at Leopardstown which is flat how will he copeI have no interest in timing sectional for U.K. or Irish racing but read this article earlier than suggests the performance was worthy of a 4lb sectional uplift (that’s if you are referring to Bolshoi Ballet), factor in the horse already quickened to win his race and the run comment is ‘easily’ then I don’t know what it means that he took 14,5 seconds for the last furlong. This is Irish racing , I mean is the last furlong a furlong, is the race really 10 furlongs, who knows
Btw I don’t have a strong opinion, if he was 4/1 I would be piling in but 7/4 means I don’t care much, I think he will take a lot of beating fwiw
Time analysis: Graeme North on the Classic Trials
with the incline of the straight at Epsom,
He may still prove to be the best 10f 3yo colt and would be a certainty for the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly
The Gear Up race was slow in heavy ground, I wouldn’t worry about that at all. Bolshoi Ballot ran about 40lb slower in that race than in Leopardstown, the 2 races are chalk and cheese and required completely different qualities, usually if you stay 10f in a fast time early in 3yo career than you should be ok with the Derby Trip (obviously no guarantees).
Game is about opinions , I can’t find any reason to doubt Bolshoi Ballets credentials for the Derby, that not to say there isn‘t something better in there that hasn’t played his cards yet.
Cashelman
Filly
As you say it’s a matter of opinions and until 3:15 on Thursday I believe in what I’ve seen so far High Definition is superior to Bolshoi Ballet
Exactly!! the case with many people, sectionals can give you some idea how the race was run in the same way that times/speed figures might.
How good were those in behind is a perfectly reasonable question to ask ?
The horse that made the running fell into a hole half a mile out, the horse at the back stayed on well but perhaps one of the most interesting aspects visually was that behind the winner the next 5 were all in a bunch rather than stretched out .
If HIGH DESTINATION wins tomorrow and does it well then we will rightly be asking "what did he beat ? but if ROYAL CHAMPION happens to win we should be asking how good was the fielden ? etc
Make no mistake the dante looks a very strong trial to me and if we do see a clear winner that 7/4 BB will look silly, if ?
Just a gut feeling, but, I don't believe the Dante will produce the Derby winner.
I'm still waiting for Aidan's decs, plus, the jockey arrangements.
May sound strange, but I go to the Derby every year ( barring hospitalisation or lock-downs), and, I've developed some pretty crazy methods.
Only ever lose to favourites or total, under-the-radar outsiders from stables I under-estimated.
Being an o'Brien fan, my main worries are always Gosden or French raiders. Fallon and Stoute used to be my other go-to, but, the strike rate wasn't great. This was reflected in the prices.
I find it so interesting.
BB is too short for me at present. I did try to get on, but was too slow, even though the attempt was made as BB crossed the winning line. This was on btfr. I ain't got fast fingers or bots, which doesn't usually matter on the antepost betting.
I may have to look for a good Place bet punt on something.
Even Spencer has been known to manage 4TBP.
Good luck all! I'm off out now.
I'm still waiting for Aidan's decs, plus, the jockey arrangements.
May sound strange, but I go to the Derby every year ( barring hospitalisation or lock-downs), and, I've developed some pretty crazy methods.
Only ever lose to favourites or total, under-the-radar outsiders from stables I under-estimated.
Being an o'Brien fan, my main worries are always Gosden or French raiders. Fallon and Stoute used to be my other go-to, but, the strike rate wasn't great. This was reflected in the prices.
I find it so interesting.
BB is too short for me at present. I did try to get on, but was too slow, even though the attempt was made as BB crossed the winning line. This was on btfr. I ain't got fast fingers or bots, which doesn't usually matter on the antepost betting.
I may have to look for a good Place bet punt on something.
Even Spencer has been known to manage 4TBP.
Good luck all! I'm off out now.
What did you see in BB's form
S
Sandhog ?
For instance, BB beat FERNANDO VICHI 6 1/2 L the other day and 5 1/2L the time before.
If you take out MAC SWINEY the race doesn't look so hot ?
Apparently the speed figure was very good so i wonder about the placed horses , if they scored good numbers might that in anyway devalue the SF ?
So S Sandhog , lets have none of this " gut-feeling " nonsense and instead some down to earth logic.
good luck.
For instance, BB beat FERNANDO VICHI 6 1/2 L the other day and 5 1/2L the time before.
If you take out MAC SWINEY the race doesn't look so hot ?
Apparently the speed figure was very good so i wonder about the placed horses , if they scored good numbers might that in anyway devalue the SF ?
So S Sandhog , lets have none of this " gut-feeling " nonsense and instead some down to earth logic.
good luck.
All I saw was the race, which was too good to be true. Faultless, except for one thing.
Why the hell did Ryan keep riding like the clappers when he was well clear?
They must have wanted to make a really good impression, which they did.
I really hope he rides one of my selections instead of BB. Have to wait a bit longer to see the arrangements.
"Down to earth logic"? You're having a laugh!
This is me you're chatting to.
Why the hell did Ryan keep riding like the clappers when he was well clear?
They must have wanted to make a really good impression, which they did.
I really hope he rides one of my selections instead of BB. Have to wait a bit longer to see the arrangements.
"Down to earth logic"? You're having a laugh!
This is me you're chatting to.
S Sandhog , I see you as a regular epsom derby racegoer, top hat and tails.All I saw was the race, which was too good to be true. Faultless, except for one thing.
Why the hell did Ryan keep riding like the clappers when he was well clear?
They must have wanted to make a really good impression, which they did.
I really hope he rides one of my selections instead of BB. Have to wait a bit longer to see the arrangements.
"Down to earth logic"? You're having a laugh!
This is me you're chatting to.
Probably went to the same school as Prince monolulu and well capable of selecting the winner of the derby by about D-day.
Best of luck with that bud.
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Oh, mate, how do you ever get a winner with poor judgment like that?
I'm on the Hill, pal, by the traveller's camp.
Yes, I have been in the Queens Stand once, on an open day. Been on the weigh scales, dressing room, and up near the balcony.
Frankly, I'm no fan of the "penguins". Most of 'em give me the sh its.
Had a good laugh one day: I was standing near Barney C, by a grub stall in that bit of a lane adjacent to the Queen's Stand. Some pillockheads were walking by ( en route to the paddock, I guess), when another of their ilk, high up in the stand dropped a lobster right on matey's top hat.
Concertinerd like a telescope, but the sauce splattered the jacket.
Now I know why the old coppers wore those top hats; they do save the swede from damage by impact.
Shouldn't laugh, but couldn't help it. Barney just smiled and drank his cocoa.
I think he had it right off with the rail bookies that day. Plebs like me can only see the back of their boards as they have them the other way round from those in Tatts, where I used to bet,
I could see them panicking as Barney approached. Drained the blood right out of their tanned faces.
How the other half ( 15%) live!
I stay on the Hill every time now. The heathens knocked down the Lonsdale, so no more do I subsidise the racecourse in any shape or form. Blow 'em, they didn't play the game. They commandeered publi common land and increased charges year after year on something that wasn't theirs.
OK, bc of their stupid tents and buses and fences I can no longer stand near the lollipop nor get a good view, but, I get the atmosphere, and can watch it properly later, on my daughter's telly.
We have a good craic on the old hill. Never know when you're going to get killed!
I love it, especially when I get the winner.
I'm on the Hill, pal, by the traveller's camp.
Yes, I have been in the Queens Stand once, on an open day. Been on the weigh scales, dressing room, and up near the balcony.
Frankly, I'm no fan of the "penguins". Most of 'em give me the sh its.
Had a good laugh one day: I was standing near Barney C, by a grub stall in that bit of a lane adjacent to the Queen's Stand. Some pillockheads were walking by ( en route to the paddock, I guess), when another of their ilk, high up in the stand dropped a lobster right on matey's top hat.
Concertinerd like a telescope, but the sauce splattered the jacket.
Now I know why the old coppers wore those top hats; they do save the swede from damage by impact.
Shouldn't laugh, but couldn't help it. Barney just smiled and drank his cocoa.
I think he had it right off with the rail bookies that day. Plebs like me can only see the back of their boards as they have them the other way round from those in Tatts, where I used to bet,
I could see them panicking as Barney approached. Drained the blood right out of their tanned faces.
How the other half ( 15%) live!
I stay on the Hill every time now. The heathens knocked down the Lonsdale, so no more do I subsidise the racecourse in any shape or form. Blow 'em, they didn't play the game. They commandeered publi common land and increased charges year after year on something that wasn't theirs.
OK, bc of their stupid tents and buses and fences I can no longer stand near the lollipop nor get a good view, but, I get the atmosphere, and can watch it properly later, on my daughter's telly.
We have a good craic on the old hill. Never know when you're going to get killed!
I love it, especially when I get the winner.