EBOR FESTIVAL
- Thread starter rbtblb82
- Start date
Ah no time, too many jobs, helping to build a house, painting my facias and soffits, gardening, painting my grandads fence, destroying my grandads shed and getting rid, building a new shed for my grandad, digging out my mums grass and putting stones in, erecting a new fence - and I'm an office boy normally so my back is killing me. I have muscles that ache that I never knew I had!
Anyway, I always back Naana's Sparkle and Naana's Shadow, the latter being a very good horse, Oisin Murphy and Katie Scott, won at York before although, form at York means nothing, it is a flat and fair track, anyone can win, and I always back Shrimp Shady, what a name that is, so tomorrow, my big / obviously bet / trixie is those 3 horses.
I will also put Ombudsman in on another bet with those 3 as I like that horse and think it will win. Then I will try to pick the other winners and hit all 7 in the day, not that I will, it's too hard but can only try.
In the 1st race, Richard Spencer has the favourite at 5/1 - THE MAN - which is being heavily tipped, Spencer does have a decent record in big handicaps and at York, but form is 66000, either it's just because Spencer has targeted the race and is confident, or somebody knows something else as it shouldn't have been backed as heavily as it has really, I actually think his 2nd string horse Candy is a better bet at 33/1, it likes a bit of cut on the ground and we've had a decent amount of rain at York, more due over the next 2 days, so it could easily be Good to Soft.
Race 1 @ 13:50 - Naana's Sparkle 10/1, Air Force One 15/2, Stratusnine 11/1, Dark Thirty 20/1 or maybe even Dubai Bling 16/1, and/or The Man 5/1 (or Candy 33/1) - tough one but Naana's Sparkle for me
Race 2 @ 14:25 - Alfred Wallace 6/1 and maybe a punt on Big Cigar 50/1
Race 3 @ 15:00 - Christmas Day 5/2 and Superior Choice 6/1
Race 4 @ 15:35 - Ombudsman 5/4 for me, and if he doesn't win it should be Constitution River 11/8, the only other two I'd give a chance, although probably wrong given it's York, is Item 15/2 and Pride of Arras 33/1, decent record at York
Race 5 @ 16:10 - I'm Shrimp Shady yes I'm the real Shady all the other Shrimp Shady's are just imitating - Shrimp Shady 8/1 for me, but have to consider JP O'Brien horse, he does well at the UK festivals but Small Fry favourite at 5/2, also punts on In The Breeze 20/1 and Ghaiyya 25/1
Race 6 @ 16:45 - Naana's Shadow was 5/1 now 7/2, glad a put my big double and trixie on earlier, I got it 5/1 - also Shrodinger's Cat 15/2, Miss Yechance 15/2 and Zain Primus 8/1, but Naana's Shadow all the way for me
Race 7 @ 17:20 - Dubai Champion 9/2 favourite with Ben Haslam and Ryan Moore, looks decent and not bad price for a favourite, otherwise, Havana Sprite 8/1, Hector Crouch on fire
Good luck to all, can't wait, love York, off on Saturday.
Anyway, I always back Naana's Sparkle and Naana's Shadow, the latter being a very good horse, Oisin Murphy and Katie Scott, won at York before although, form at York means nothing, it is a flat and fair track, anyone can win, and I always back Shrimp Shady, what a name that is, so tomorrow, my big / obviously bet / trixie is those 3 horses.
I will also put Ombudsman in on another bet with those 3 as I like that horse and think it will win. Then I will try to pick the other winners and hit all 7 in the day, not that I will, it's too hard but can only try.
In the 1st race, Richard Spencer has the favourite at 5/1 - THE MAN - which is being heavily tipped, Spencer does have a decent record in big handicaps and at York, but form is 66000, either it's just because Spencer has targeted the race and is confident, or somebody knows something else as it shouldn't have been backed as heavily as it has really, I actually think his 2nd string horse Candy is a better bet at 33/1, it likes a bit of cut on the ground and we've had a decent amount of rain at York, more due over the next 2 days, so it could easily be Good to Soft.
Race 1 @ 13:50 - Naana's Sparkle 10/1, Air Force One 15/2, Stratusnine 11/1, Dark Thirty 20/1 or maybe even Dubai Bling 16/1, and/or The Man 5/1 (or Candy 33/1) - tough one but Naana's Sparkle for me
Race 2 @ 14:25 - Alfred Wallace 6/1 and maybe a punt on Big Cigar 50/1
Race 3 @ 15:00 - Christmas Day 5/2 and Superior Choice 6/1
Race 4 @ 15:35 - Ombudsman 5/4 for me, and if he doesn't win it should be Constitution River 11/8, the only other two I'd give a chance, although probably wrong given it's York, is Item 15/2 and Pride of Arras 33/1, decent record at York
Race 5 @ 16:10 - I'm Shrimp Shady yes I'm the real Shady all the other Shrimp Shady's are just imitating - Shrimp Shady 8/1 for me, but have to consider JP O'Brien horse, he does well at the UK festivals but Small Fry favourite at 5/2, also punts on In The Breeze 20/1 and Ghaiyya 25/1
Race 6 @ 16:45 - Naana's Shadow was 5/1 now 7/2, glad a put my big double and trixie on earlier, I got it 5/1 - also Shrodinger's Cat 15/2, Miss Yechance 15/2 and Zain Primus 8/1, but Naana's Shadow all the way for me
Race 7 @ 17:20 - Dubai Champion 9/2 favourite with Ben Haslam and Ryan Moore, looks decent and not bad price for a favourite, otherwise, Havana Sprite 8/1, Hector Crouch on fire
Good luck to all, can't wait, love York, off on Saturday.
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Ebor meeting media pack
Official race card for wednesday
Official race card for wednesday
pawras
Stallion
1500 York Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (1) 3yo : Prize Money £141775.00
Here's my trial race stats and AI generated interpretation of them for those that get a bit number blind looking at a page of numbers
Here's my trial race stats and AI generated interpretation of them for those that get a bit number blind looking at a page of numbers
Attachments
BC
Colt
I agree. I thought it was just me.
Yes maybe this is one for T tacker to analyse the sections, looked like he panicked and used him to early from the back, and his positioning was horrific , he has to be the most overrated jockey riding today, he is not and never has been a top jockey, god knows how he has reached his position. The type of jockey that if he went to Hong Kong for a season would get less than 5 winners, like Probert.
Good day of racing, and £20 up from my original stake money with bets rolling over tomorrow, happy with that for Day 1 at York, could have been better though, I had every winner but only managed best of 4 out of 7 across my 7-folds, had the two Naana's in a few too many bets, let me down.
Just seen that Quickthorn is running Friday @ 14:25, he is 9yro now and not seen since 2024, but loves the mud and York and given the rain due tomorrow with Marquand onboard, could he steal it again @ 33/1 I wonder, I'd love it if he did.
Just seen that Quickthorn is running Friday @ 14:25, he is 9yro now and not seen since 2024, but loves the mud and York and given the rain due tomorrow with Marquand onboard, could he steal it again @ 33/1 I wonder, I'd love it if he did.
My view that while i don't believe Buick is anything special, he's certainly in the top ten and gets plenty of armchair rides for the Godolphin set-up.
Did he panic ? I wouldn't put it like that and when he drew alongside what we thought was his main rival CON RIVER about a furlong and half out i thought he might win (all about opinions) but almost immediately became unbalanced probably from weariness.
I believe we often associate a poor/bad ride with failing to get a clear passage or similar, that wasn't the case here so did he panic and presumably press the button too early ? I think there was an hint of that action and there's where the sectionals help but 11.73 - 4f-3f, was a little better than ITEM but he was a fraction faster over the next couple of furlongs as well, final furlong was almost a Second slower.
OMBUDSMAN was beaten by the softer ground imo, not jockey error.
By coincidence i was being asked yesterday about why OMBUDS was so good in last years race ? and it's worth going back and watching the race again, they completely ignored gosdens pacemaker (BIRR CASTLE btn only 4L) 38mph after a furlong, just about the same as yesterday's race but they didn't ignore, all on much testing conditions, making the race about stamina.
By the way nobody mentioning the ride from Ryan Moore, set his mount alive from the stalls which forced Wayne to go faster than he wanted to imo in the conditions, race riding must stand for something.
I know some people dismiss the "GOING"......THEY'RE WRONG .
If you focus on OMBUDS last 3f sectionals from last year and yesterday
2025....10.94 / 11.22 / 11.99 = 34.15s
2026...11.95 / 12.38 / 13.69 =38.02s