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Early Market Possibles.
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
Jackform
Colt
This is the best I can do today as all the UK mainland tracks are outside my going range for participation, except for Hexham. Also a lot of the market possibles that might have been considered have been off track a long time so you never know if they are fit enough today? Caution is the watchword!
Hexham (going forecast S with some GS) Market odds shown from around 09.00.
1.25 Darry Besbois 4/1
1.55 Well Joey 4/1
2.30 Military Hill 9/4 (danger Eviscerating 7/2)
3.40 Lantiern 9/4
4.15 Bocasien Desbois 11/4
Hexham (going forecast S with some GS) Market odds shown from around 09.00.
1.25 Darry Besbois 4/1
1.55 Well Joey 4/1
2.30 Military Hill 9/4 (danger Eviscerating 7/2)
3.40 Lantiern 9/4
4.15 Bocasien Desbois 11/4
Jackform
Colt
The Musselburgh card is quite good for a Monday, but again the soft ground needs to be taken into consideration.
Musselburgh (going forecast S with some GS) Market odds shown from around 09.25.
1.20 Not On Your Nellie 15/8. G?
1.50 Ollivander 4/1 (danger How Bizarre 11/2 - 7/1 2nd)
2.20 Tarboosh 5/4 - 10/11 won (danger Copper Knight 7/2 - 4/1 2nd)
2.55 Jewel Maker 3/1 G? (danger Militia 7/2 G? - 7/2 won)
3.25 Montatham 9/2 - 7/2 2nd
4.00 Employer 11/2 G?
4.30 Nil
Musselburgh (going forecast S with some GS) Market odds shown from around 09.25.
1.20 Not On Your Nellie 15/8. G?
1.50 Ollivander 4/1 (danger How Bizarre 11/2 - 7/1 2nd)
2.20 Tarboosh 5/4 - 10/11 won (danger Copper Knight 7/2 - 4/1 2nd)
2.55 Jewel Maker 3/1 G? (danger Militia 7/2 G? - 7/2 won)
3.25 Montatham 9/2 - 7/2 2nd
4.00 Employer 11/2 G?
4.30 Nil
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Jackform
Colt
Those with longish f/cst odds are probably best each-way IMO.
Wetherby (going forecast GS showers) Market odds shown from around 09.10.
1.50 Zeb Spirit 1/1
3.30 Jatiluwih 7/2 - 11/2 won
4.35 Justatenner 6/1 - 13/2 3rd (danger Monkey Puzzle 6/1)
5.05 Theflyingportrait 7/2
5.35 Nayati 6/1
Wetherby (going forecast GS showers) Market odds shown from around 09.10.
1.50 Zeb Spirit 1/1
3.30 Jatiluwih 7/2 - 11/2 won
4.35 Justatenner 6/1 - 13/2 3rd (danger Monkey Puzzle 6/1)
5.05 Theflyingportrait 7/2
5.35 Nayati 6/1
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Jackform
Colt
Trying too hard with too many selections yesterday, which is never a good idea IMO. Today I have kept to qualifiers in 'restricted' races and would expect to do better.
Uttoxeter (going forecast S showers) Market odds shown from around 09.20.
2.45 Pop The Cork (2/1) - 11/8 won
4.55 Brigadier Bob 7/2 ( danger Onurbike 4/1 - 13/2 won)
Uttoxeter (going forecast S showers) Market odds shown from around 09.20.
2.45 Pop The Cork (2/1) - 11/8 won
4.55 Brigadier Bob 7/2 ( danger Onurbike 4/1 - 13/2 won)
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Jackform
Colt
Saturday, and quite a few selections in restricted races. Market odds from around 09.30.
Market Rasen (going forecast GS with some S)
4.55 Blue N Yellow 13/8 - 2/1 2nd (danger Dallas Cowboy 9/4)
5.30 Lovely Lou Lou 2/1
Stratford (going forecast S)
2.55 Skeaping 6/4 - 11/8 won
3.30 One Forty Seven 3/1 - 9/2 won
5.10 Superefficient 11/4 - 8/1 3rd (danger Jaxlight 7/2)
Market Rasen (going forecast GS with some S)
4.55 Blue N Yellow 13/8 - 2/1 2nd (danger Dallas Cowboy 9/4)
5.30 Lovely Lou Lou 2/1
Stratford (going forecast S)
2.55 Skeaping 6/4 - 11/8 won
3.30 One Forty Seven 3/1 - 9/2 won
5.10 Superefficient 11/4 - 8/1 3rd (danger Jaxlight 7/2)
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Chesham
Sire
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There is big gap between the 2nd Fav and 3rd Fav ie the race seems to favour the first two in the Market according to the odds
hedgehog
Mare
Thanks @Chesham, always a timely and informative answer. Thank you again.
I remember Barney on another forum talking about a 3pts spread between favourite and 2nd favourite meaning the layers didn't think the favourite was likely to lose and were taking no chances.
Thank you again, always helpful
I remember Barney on another forum talking about a 3pts spread between favourite and 2nd favourite meaning the layers didn't think the favourite was likely to lose and were taking no chances.
Thank you again, always helpful
Chesham
Sire
I look at midday Price Disparity to see if anything is standing out or if the Fav or 2nd Fav is out of sync to what it should be
Jackform
Colt
Slow day for punters with the poor going IMO, certainly form - so bad I might try Southwell, that's how bad it is! Market odds shown from around 09.15.
Plumpton (going forecast GS showers)
5.10 Luck Of The Legion 15/8 (danger Heavenly promise 5/2)
Just a practise for restricted races on the AW, which I never attempt as my success has been non-existent. I don't know whether it is the different types of going, if they compete against each other more often, or the generally lower class - mainly class 5/6 today?
Southwell (going forecast standard). Just the forecast restricted races.
6.00 Creativity 11/4 (danger Capla Cubiste 11/2)
7.00 Break The Silence 6/4
8.30 Tease Maid 10/3
Plumpton (going forecast GS showers)
5.10 Luck Of The Legion 15/8 (danger Heavenly promise 5/2)
Just a practise for restricted races on the AW, which I never attempt as my success has been non-existent. I don't know whether it is the different types of going, if they compete against each other more often, or the generally lower class - mainly class 5/6 today?
Southwell (going forecast standard). Just the forecast restricted races.
6.00 Creativity 11/4 (danger Capla Cubiste 11/2)
7.00 Break The Silence 6/4
8.30 Tease Maid 10/3
Jackform
Colt
@hedgehog, how do I do it? Probably late beginners luck as I have been trying since 1951. Seriously though, I have tried innumerable approaches over the years and though I may not know what to do I have a fair idea of what not to do:
1) I avoid poor going.
2) Try to keep to a reasonable size of field - not more than around 12 as the layers take is less and avoids possible traffic problems.
3) Prefer handicap races to assess as the OR provides a standard, which you don't get in non-handicaps.
4) Prefer restricted races to open contests.
5) Haven't even tried on the AW tracks for years.
6) Keep to a systematic approach - a daily routine.
7) Make comparisons all the time with other ways of working.
8) Keep trying to improve the strike-rate of winning bets.
Could probably think of more, but it's all down to individual temperament - and I hate losing. (Enjoy my racing though my wife of 62 years tells me it's stupid betting on horses and she goes to bingo on Saturday nights
).
A 'restricted' race for me is one where no more than half the field are at odds less that the true mathematical odds. True mathematical odds are always one less point than the number of runners e.g. 9 runners = 8/1.
1) I avoid poor going.
2) Try to keep to a reasonable size of field - not more than around 12 as the layers take is less and avoids possible traffic problems.
3) Prefer handicap races to assess as the OR provides a standard, which you don't get in non-handicaps.
4) Prefer restricted races to open contests.
5) Haven't even tried on the AW tracks for years.
6) Keep to a systematic approach - a daily routine.
7) Make comparisons all the time with other ways of working.
8) Keep trying to improve the strike-rate of winning bets.
Could probably think of more, but it's all down to individual temperament - and I hate losing. (Enjoy my racing though my wife of 62 years tells me it's stupid betting on horses and she goes to bingo on Saturday nights
).A 'restricted' race for me is one where no more than half the field are at odds less that the true mathematical odds. True mathematical odds are always one less point than the number of runners e.g. 9 runners = 8/1.
Chesham
Sire
Jackform
Colt
@Chesham, I never check the ATR form verdict for any early selections, and only after I have made any full assessment for comparison. Take the Exeter 4.40 that I have had another look at, although it looks an open race that would not qualify as an early market selection.
Exeter (going forecast G) RP Spotlight selection Write IT Down) Market odds shown from 15.45.
4.40 Market expected 15.45* nos 3, 5, 8, 9, 10 indicating a fairly open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, possible contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.
Brown Bear 1 tip (BF) (7/2), (dangers First Figaro 7/2 4 tips , Write It Down 7/2 5 tips).
Comment: The pundits prefer the 'dangers'. Triple Chief is also one of the market expected.
ATR form verdict in comparison.
WRITE IT DOWN showed plenty of improvement in first-time cheekpieces and a tongue-tie when winning at Warwick last month and he looked to have plenty still in the tank when crossing the line. The second and third from that contest have both run well subsequently and that gives plenty of hope Jonjo O'Neill's five-year-old could be well treated off a 5lb higher mark. First Figaro was only beaten a neck at Market Rasen last month and is likely to be a danger off just 1lb higher. Fontwell regular Brown Bear picked up a silver medal off this figure earlier this month and is respected, while course-and-distance winner Triple Chief can't be ignored.
Top Tip: WRITE IT DOWN (10)
Watch out for: FIRST FIGARO (3)
Exeter (going forecast G) RP Spotlight selection Write IT Down) Market odds shown from 15.45.
4.40 Market expected 15.45* nos 3, 5, 8, 9, 10 indicating a fairly open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, possible contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.
Brown Bear 1 tip (BF) (7/2), (dangers First Figaro 7/2 4 tips , Write It Down 7/2 5 tips).
Comment: The pundits prefer the 'dangers'. Triple Chief is also one of the market expected.
ATR form verdict in comparison.
WRITE IT DOWN showed plenty of improvement in first-time cheekpieces and a tongue-tie when winning at Warwick last month and he looked to have plenty still in the tank when crossing the line. The second and third from that contest have both run well subsequently and that gives plenty of hope Jonjo O'Neill's five-year-old could be well treated off a 5lb higher mark. First Figaro was only beaten a neck at Market Rasen last month and is likely to be a danger off just 1lb higher. Fontwell regular Brown Bear picked up a silver medal off this figure earlier this month and is respected, while course-and-distance winner Triple Chief can't be ignored.
Top Tip: WRITE IT DOWN (10)
Watch out for: FIRST FIGARO (3)