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Doughnuts

R

rbtblb82

Colt
I sometimes look to see which jockeys have Zero wins after a X number of rides, and then back them until they win, especially if it's a decent jockey that's good for a win and shouldn't continue their losing streak for very long. It worked quite well for me last time I did it with Siobhan Rutledge in Ireland, who was 0-30 then won.

I see that Cam Hardie is 0-70 and has a horse I like today, and just one ride - Asadjumeirah 11/1 @ 18:50 @ Newcastle. Surely his losing streak can't continue and he must be due a win soon, so I'm having a punt on him breaking his doughnut.

Graham Lee is 0-33, although, he fell recently and it sounds like he might have broken his neck - best wishes to Graham and his family.

George Rooke 0-22 and has a 150/1 in a novice stakes race today, might be worth a punt for him to break his losing streak - Sprited Lad 150/1 @ 15:45 @ Kempton.
 
rbtblb82 said:
Asadjumeirah 11/1 @ 18:50 @ Newcastle. Surely his losing streak can't continue and he must be due a win soon, so I'm having a punt on him breaking his doughnut.
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The horse has been tipped up on the forum today.

Looking at his AW win on 10thFeb22 add his OR+RPR together (176), ref the flat pars table, his class ceiling on the day was 84/85, today he runs off 65 down 20lbs.

Table.PNG

Asad.PNG

Mike.
 

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I looked at that horse as well was on sprint method, was down to two factors against the going was slower and the course speed not that good either but famous last words maybe.
 
Leodis said:
Just one more thing Mike ( @
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother ), are the speed pars your figures or Top Speed? Thanks
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They are mine, Dave Edwards "Top Speed" uses the Racing Post's WFA scale and I don't, he also uses a set of static pounds per length, whereas I use a set of lbs per length calculated from the standard times for each racecourse and distance.

Mike.
 
Tabitha Worsley 61-0, riding Don't Cheddar Tear 100/1 today, 14:45 at Chepstow, shouldn't have a chance but I'm having a wee punt on her breaking her doughnut on a 100/1, would be nice, go on Tabitha.
 
Surprisingly, Conor Stone-Walsh is 33-0, he must be due a win.

Mr H C Swan is 23-0, but before this run he had a pretty good strike rate on Gordon Elliott horses.

Leigh Roche in Ireland is often good for a big odds winner, currently 31-0, again, must be due a win.
 
John Egan 12-0, has Kessar Power 4/1 @ Chelmsford 19:30 today, not a big streak but he only has 1 horse so it might be worth a shot, see how the early racing goes - I might have winnings to blow, or be trying to claw it back.

Leigh Roche (Ireland) is 30-0 and is good for a big odds winner, no booked rides over the next two days though, will have to wait for him to re-appear.
 
Hi TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother , another question if I may.

On the flat pars, is this example in the graphic the minimum or maximum marker for the G1 par?

The reason I ask is that you have figures above this on the sheet but there also figures below the marker for C6.

1716631192408.png

Regards
 
Leodis said:
On the flat pars, is this example in the graphic the minimum or maximum marker for the G1 par?
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Very good question.

You could say that the SF (103), OR (120) and RPR (124) figures above are the medium figures of a Group 1, any horse with an OR of +120 would be classed as a true Group 1 horse, the old saying is a Group 3 horse will not beat a true Group 1.

Mike.
 

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