Does trainer form really matter? Interested in people’s views.

[mlmrob]

If you look at Lizzie Quinlan who is 294 days and 140 runners without a winner you would determine something has been wrong with her horses or she isn't a very good trainer as overall she operates at 6%, much the same as her mother when she held the licence.

Joey Ramsden 68 days and 40 runners since a winner but 0-19 with horses that go off 7/1 or less. Or, if you want, 0-14 that go off in the first three of the betting, five of those placed.

Jess Macey, 143 days and 57 runners without a winner. However, from those that went off in the first threee of the betting the losing run is 0-9.

Basically, Trainerform on its own doesn't line up but coupling it with the market gives a more clearer picture. Timeform's run to form figures are quite accurate. Her current average is just below 50%rtf and she has been a little over lately but her record is much better than what is was in ewarely April. As she averages 50% overall, black line, she really isn't out of form.

 

[tony spencer]

If you look at Lizzie Quinlan who is 294 days and 140 runners without a winner you would determine something has been wrong with her horses or she isn't a very good trainer as overall she operates at 6%, much the same as her mother when she held the licence.

Joey Ramsden 68 days and 40 runners since a winner but 0-19 with horses that go off 7/1 or less. Or, if you want, 0-14 that go off in the first three of the betting, five of those placed.

Jess Macey, 143 days and 57 runners without a winner. However, from those that went off in the first threee of the betting the losing run is 0-9.

Basically, Trainerform on its own doesn't line up but coupling it with the market gives a more clearer picture. Timeform's run to form figures are quite accurate. Her current average is just below 50%rtf and she has been a little over lately but her record is much better than what is was in ewarely April. As she averages 50% overall, black line, she really isn't out of form.

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[tony spencer]

Im Just using it as a warning as you can see from my race review

 

[tony spencer]

I would break it down a bit cos some trainers favour certain types of races over others

I agree and I have that covered i will show a few examples over the next few days

 

[tacker]

If you look at Lizzie Quinlan who is 294 days and 140 runners without a winner you would determine something has been wrong with her horses or she isn't a very good trainer as overall she operates at 6%, much the same as her mother when she held the licence.

Joey Ramsden 68 days and 40 runners since a winner but 0-19 with horses that go off 7/1 or less. Or, if you want, 0-14 that go off in the first three of the betting, five of those placed.

Jess Macey, 143 days and 57 runners without a winner. However, from those that went off in the first threee of the betting the losing run is 0-9.

Basically, Trainerform on its own doesn't line up but coupling it with the market gives a more clearer picture. Timeform's run to form figures are quite accurate. Her current average is just below 50%rtf and she has been a little over lately but her record is much better than what is was in ewarely April. As she averages 50% overall, black line, she really isn't out of form.

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I keep a close eye on the Gosden yard and "form" is quite difficult to quantify in my opinion, their horses are very often overbet anyway but an odds loser isn't the same as a 10/1 chance. Also if we take FIELD OF GOLD btn even money shot but in truth he still ran a decent race, just not good enough on the day but ran near enough to his ability to not be classed as a negative.
I can't think i've ever noticed timeforms "run to form " but i think the point is well made.

 

[tony spencer]

I pay more attention to recent trainer form, whenever they have a runner that's been off the track for more than 90 days. Theory being, that their runner might be more ahead on fitness and maybe the market hasn't caught on and is not priced in.

If attending the race, then a final check can be made in the paddock for positives on the fitness...etc.

6.15 Musselburgh today - example.

Timeform have the Hot Trainer flag against a runner, off the course for 248 days. The Racing Post has the RTF @ 60%.

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Trainer Insight – Edward Bethell​

Edward Bethell presents a mixed but interesting profile under today’s conditions.


He has shown a clear ability to prepare horses to run well after a break, with runners returning from 200+ days off performing above market expectations. This suggests the yard can have horses ready first time out, rather than needing a run for fitness.


There is also a strong positive when his runners arrive having won two starts ago, with both strike rate and overall performance indicating that horses in this profile tend to remain competitive and well placed.


However, this is offset by a weaker record at Musselburgh, where his handicap runners have historically underperformed relative to market expectations. While the place rate remains reasonable, the overall return and win efficiency indicate this track has not been a strong venue for the yard.

 

[gerry]

I would say when you look at gosdens horses they are running well enough last 14 days at 31% above his average but as there over bet you will always get some beat and i think he is jumping and changing with jockeys now and i would guess the better the jockey he gets the more hopeful he is on the run r moore for example looks like his best so far he even got c t keane for fields of gold so hes looking a round for the best on the day. As for fields of gold two things i feel likely cost it the win friday or at least be a lot closer one it bleed from nose and two the ground just not fast enough for it and will be better on quicker ground.

 

[pawras]

I agree some trainers are very overbet