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Does the Bounce really have an effect.

T

tony spencer

Colt
I looked at Flat Horses that have been off for 300+ days come back run well within 10% of its best form. ow did they run after. 9.1% ran really bad

📊 Bounce Theory Test Complete
📅 Total Comebacks Found (300+ days): 3139
📉 Horses That Bounced (Drop > 3): 1633 (52.02%)
📊 Avg RFM Drop on Next Run: 9.25

📊 Drop Buckets After Good Comeback:
0–10%: 1909 horses (60.8%)
10–20%: 450 horses (14.3%)
20–30%: 233 horses (7.4%)
30–40%: 156 horses (5.0%)
40–50%: 106 horses (3.4%)
>50%: 285 horses (9.1%)
 
:text-goodpost:
Hi T tony spencer good researching. Have you looked at just sprinters as my memory suggests that Sprinters are more likely to bounce. Horses who suddenly improve their Turn Time from previous races are more likely to be improvers next time as they have been given a race within a race Example they are given the gun at the turn time fractions and use up all their fuel and coast home the rest of the race. The handicapper is likely to drop them a few lbs .

See

https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/form-reading-workshop.17355/post-103710
 
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📊 SPRINTER Bounce Theory Test
📅 Total Sprint Comebacks Found: 367
📉 Bounced (Drop > 3): 203 (55.31%)
📊 Avg RFM Drop: 9.39

📊 Drop Buckets (Sprint Comebacks):
0–10%: 212 horses (57.8%)
10–20%: 55 horses (15.0%)
20–30%: 37 horses (10.1%)
30–40%: 16 horses (4.4%)
40–50%: 16 horses (4.4%)
>50%: 31 horses (8.4%)
 
Hi T tony spencer

The concept is that if Racehorse is asked to go beyond a certain speed in the early part of a race , they will stop dramatically and finish well down the field. The author refers to it as 'Collapse Point' in other words if the individual is asked to beyond its comfort zone, (Its happy to race up to 39MPH but if you ask it to go 40MPH the gasket blows)


If you can identify when a horse is asked to go past its collapse point you will have knowledge of why it put in a poor performance and the individual has an increased probability that it will improve next time out.


The idea came from Cary Fotias and his book 'Blinkers Off'.


He looks for runners who have earned a new pace top figure, in respect that they ran quicker in the earlier part of their last race than they have ever done so before. Where many would see it has a downturn in form because it finished tailed off, Cary Fotias would view it as a fit and healthy horse, because it had been a 'pace top' figure.
 
You are probably looking for a horse who runs the fastest sectional in the middle furlong or 2 middle furlongs of the race and then fades

Tribal Chief (2nd Place, beaten 3.25 lengths)​

📈 Sectional Breakdown:​

  • Early Pace (2f–4f):
    • 15.72 | 11th
    • 11.55 | 11th
    • 11.53 | 11th
    • Very slow start – possibly by design or due to being restrained early.
  • Mid-Race Kick (5f–7f):
    • 11.59 | 11th
    • 11.43 | 11th
    • 11.59 | 10th
    • Still trailing – likely conserving or outpaced briefly
  • Late Surge (8f):
    • 12.56 | 2nd fastest of all
    • FSP: 100.85% – highest of the race

🧠 Takeaway:​

  • Tribal Chief ran a reverse race shape: very slow early, then launched a big late kick.
  • FSP over 100% tells us he was gaining on the leaders and closing hard – this is usually a high-upside sign.
  • Had he been positioned closer or the early pace was stronger, he might’ve gone very close.

📊 Future Play:​

  • Look for a faster-run race or a step up in trip (extra furlong/mile+ suits his finish).
  • With a handier position or more pace to chase, he’ll be very dangerous next start.



🔹 #10 – Mythical Guest (3rd Place, short head behind 2nd)​

📈 Sectional Breakdown:​

  • Early Pace (2f–4f):
    • 15.07 | 6th
    • 11.54 | 6th
    • 11.32 | 4th
    • Positioned midfield, efficient early
  • Mid-Race (5f–7f):
    • 11.48 | 4th
    • 11.36 | 4th
    • 11.81 | 3rd
    • Maintained good rhythm while moving into contention
  • Late (8f):
    • 13.12 | 3rd
    • FSP: 97.55%

🧠 Takeaway:​

  • Mythical Guest tracked the race very well, staying in the ideal part of the pack.
  • Slight drop in FSP (97.55%) shows a mild flattening late – could be a stamina ceiling or pace pressure mid-race.
  • Lost second only by a short head – shows genuine competitiveness and tactical speed.

📊 Future Play:​

  • Stick to same trip or just slightly shorter; not necessarily a stayer type.
  • Might be suited to a more tactical race where he can use his turn of foot earlier.
  • Could win next start in similar grade or slightly easier race – ready to pounce with the right ride.

🧾 Summary:​

HorseIdeal SetupKey AngleFuture Potential
Tribal ChiefStrong pace / longer tripHuge late kick (FSP 100.85%)Big improver
Mythical GuestSame trip / moderate paceWell-balanced run, tactically soundReady to win soon

Future Outlook Fusion: Tribal Chief & Mythical Guest​

📍 Race Context: 15:00, Thursday 17 April 2025 – 1m, Good Turf, Class 2 (0–100)​

🔹 Tribal Chief (2nd – Beaten 3¼L)​

🧠 Timeform Take:​

  • Looked rusty off a break.
  • Given a “near-impossible task” — slowly away, too far back.
  • Finished really strongly; still “plenty to do” 2f out.
  • Timeform TFR: 97 | TFig: 87
  • Overall tone: He’ll be winning off this mark.

📊 Sectional Reinforcement:​

  • Last 2 furlongs among the best in the field.
  • FSP: 100.85% (best in race) = huge closer energy.
  • Mid-race splits were slow — suggests he wasn’t travelling but powered late.

🔍 Interpretation:​

  • Underperformed by position, not by ability.
  • Big upgrade on visuals and figures.
  • A live danger over 8–10f, especially if drawn closer or in stronger-run races.

🔹 Mythical Guest (3rd – Short Head behind 2nd)​

🧠 Timeform Take:​

  • Strong reappearance; "took strong hold" — may have done a bit too much early.
  • Every chance 2f out, hung left, lost second late.
  • TFR: 91 | TFig: 80
  • Overall tone: Solid run; would’ve been 2nd without hanging.

📊 Sectional Reinforcement:​

  • Ran consistently in top 4–5 positions for 6f.
  • FSP: 97.55% – flattened late.
  • Hung left + mild fade in final 1f fits the visual.

🔍 Interpretation:​

  • Has tactical speed and form base to be competitive.
  • Not an out-and-out closer or stayer — sweet spot is well-run 1m.
  • Could bounce out next start sharper, less fresh, more professional.

🧩 Summary Comparison​

TraitTribal ChiefMythical Guest
StyleHold-up, powerful closerMid-division, track & pounce
SectionalsExceptional late burst (FSP 100.85%)Solid mid-race, mild flattening (97.5%)
Timeform Comment“Impossible task… Finished well”“Strong hold… Hung left, lost 2nd late”
Trip Outlook1m–1m2f (needs pace)1m (needs rhythm + sharp ride)
Trainer AngleDavid Menuisier (often improves 2nd-up)George Margarson (can place to win)
Future Bet AngleMajor player next time (handicap plot)Solid E/W in same grade or down

🔮 Verdict: Who to Track Closely​

🏆 Tribal Chief – Stronger profile for next start​

  • He was underdone, poorly positioned, and still stormed home.
  • Massive upside if pace collapses or he’s more prominent early.

💡 Mythical Guest – Place banker next 1–2 starts​

  • Could grab a win if placed right, especially with straighter head carriage and better race rhythm.
 
T tony spencer I’m heading to my mid 70’s and still finding new light bulb moments from posts like yours which makes me revisit ideas from years ago, but did not have the data or tools back then . A big thank you to you for this thread
 
tony spencer said:
I looked at Flat Horses that have been off for 300+ days come back run well within 10% of its best form. ow did they run after. 9.1% ran really bad

📊 Bounce Theory Test Complete
📅 Total Comebacks Found (300+ days): 3139
📉 Horses That Bounced (Drop > 3): 1633 (52.02%)
📊 Avg RFM Drop on Next Run: 9.25

📊 Drop Buckets After Good Comeback:
0–10%: 1909 horses (60.8%)
10–20%: 450 horses (14.3%)
20–30%: 233 horses (7.4%)
30–40%: 156 horses (5.0%)
40–50%: 106 horses (3.4%)
>50%: 285 horses (9.1%)
Click to expand...
 
Im just programming that information to find horses that all do very fast mid section slow finish . I will see how they run next two runs?
 
Quite often a horse will be conditioned on the track and given "A Race Within A Race" What do I mean by this. Various ways, race the horse wide around the bends covers more ground than other runners at speed and then runs out of Fuel. (I like to think that all horses have a full tank of fuel and how they use it within the race will determine how much fuel they have left for the finish, at the end of the race it is the horse who is slowing down the most and in is in the final furlong shake up. who usually wins)

The other way is to race against the other runners having given them a start in the middle Fraction

Extract from an article that I read some time back and later I explored the Brohamer Work

This fourth part of the series looks at the concept of “Turn-Time”. Turn-Time, when used with other pace and/or other handicapping information, is a very useful tool for assessing a horse’s current form, for identifying and measuring its’ competitive capabilities and for determining its likely performance in today’s race. This is the power of the “Hidden Fraction”.
IMG_3244.jpeg
 
I don't personally have a strong enough opinion either way but to my mind it's little more than a theory that can both be debunked by stats or supported by a different set of stats.
Frankly if we always look for a reason as to why a horse runs in a inexplicable way then we're going to spend many hours trying to reason out what's a regular occurance, how often do we hear a trainer say we just drew a line through that run ?

So in answer to your question T tony spencer i would say very much doubt it.
 
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