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Does anyone switch against their own bets?

M

MaxiStavros

Yearling
Hi everyone, I love football betting, I spend way too much time trying to crack the code but it is my dream. I just can't stand working it tortures my soul, I love the dream of making my money from football betting and not working.

In the past year I have spent a lot of time focusing on over 2.5 goal bets, my ultimate aim is to make a 10% ROI, if I could do that I would stake £100 a bet and would only need to place 300 bets in a month to make £3000 profit. I bet almost solely on the Betfair Exchange, I love the Exchanges, I wish they got far more coverage as they are the only place to bet.

I am current so up and down, I record all my bets and I have had some highly profitable months in the last year and some disastrous months.

It has got me thinking that rather than placing every bet as an over 2.5 goals I need to adapt to how hot or cold I am running. For example in my last 300 bets I have won 133, lost 167. However, when I looked at how many bets I would have won if I had backed over 2.5 goals if my previous bet won at over 2.5 goals or bet against my pick (and bet on under 2.5 goals) if my previous bet lost, I would have won 165 bets.

I used to play a lot of poker before I got bored by how long tournaments took and I really enjoyed exploring ideas of playing polarised hands - i.e. playing strong hands and weak hands and it got me thinking that when it comes to betting on coin toss odds that I have to expect half of my bets are likely to lose so I need to capitalise on running cold and running hot. But it is hard to do this when you may really fancy a bet at evens to back against your pick. But at the same time the odds reflect the chances very accurately.

Two questions I would like to ask - (1) Does anyone bets against their picks to maximise returns? (2) Do you think it is possible to make 10% ROI over thousands of bets on football betting - or are the odds just too well set that it is not realistic?
 
Fist thing is betting against your fancy is crazy as that is a no bet game then if not confident enough to get on your fancy.
Secondly if you expect half your bets should loss then you don't know what your doing in picking them in first place as your not even working hard enough at analysing games never mind working.
And thirdly i think betting on 2.5 goals your hoping in luck anyway as your not even caring which team wins so your taking the easy option of lets see what happens.
Take last nights champion league games i went through them study form and i finally had three home teams i fancied, and two away teams i fancied. All five won so you need just study even those five even tighter and get one and there you go thats the single for the day.
 
MaxiStavros said:
It has got me thinking that rather than placing every bet as an over 2.5 goals I need to adapt to how hot or cold I am running. For example in my last 300 bets I have won 133, lost 167. However, when I looked at how many bets I would have won if I had backed over 2.5 goals if my previous bet won at over 2.5 goals or bet against my pick (and bet on under 2.5 goals) if my previous bet lost, I would have won 165 bets.
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For your bets, you should know or calculate the estimated probability; then, from the current offer on Betfair, you can calculate the expected value, and bet only on +EV opportunities. You can also use the Kelly staking plan for that. This screenshot shows how I do it for horse racing. Trading is common practice on Betfair, either by back/lay or lay/back transactions, or by dutching on binary selections.

1761152159990.png
 
gerry said:
Secondly if you expect half your bets should loss then you don't know what your doing in picking them in first place as your not even working hard enough at analysing games never mind working.
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Gerry, when I say I expect half of my bets will lose, this is based on the odds of the over 2.5 goals bet. I think you have misunderstood how I have used the term 'expect'? Of course every bet I place I am hoping, predicting and fancy my selection will win but of course if I place 100 bets at 2.0 on the exchanges then based on the odds one would expect 50% to win and 50% to lose. It would be crazy to expect all 100 bets to win, it is impossible. I would be happy with a 10% ROI which would mean a 55% success rate for 100 bets at 2.0. Do you expect every bet you place to win even though you must know it is impossible to win every bet you place? If not, how many do you expect would win?
I wonder if you understand variance in betting? I know it is not a concept widely mentioned. My whole point is that in betting we have hot and cold spells, leagues have hot and cold spells - last weekend 9 of the 10 Italian Serie A matches were under 2.5 goals. Players and teams have hot and cold spells, Mo Salah has not scored in his last 6 Liverpool games, Liverpool had lost 4 games on the bounce. It is the same in poker you can run well and everything goes your way but other times you just cannot seem to win no matter what. Maybe this is a concept alien to you but variance is real for everyone. The point I was making is that you should capitalise on this variance to work in your own favour to increase your success rate.
As for your comment about not working hard enough to analyse games, well this is up for debate. It depends what you think is important when it comes to analysing a game. Take Leeds v West Ham tonight, over 2.5 goals is 2.12 at the moment on the exchanges. It depends what you believe is important to analyse this match to determine whether this game will have goals. That is the key to success - finding the right things to analyse.
 
It is possible to make 10% on bets but very difficult over a long sequence. Even more so when there are only 2 possible items. Some of the sharpest minds in sports gambling spend a lot of money studying the statistics and events that effect the outcome of matches and have models that have been developed over many years and with many people studying the matter.

So you will need to do some research. It is good that you intend to concentrate on one particular bet though you may vary it over other goal markets with a little study.

You will need to collect a set of results over many seasons for many leagues. You can if you look around collect free statistics and odds covering many seasons. That would be your best starting point.

Here is a good link to start, there may be better as ideally goal times would be a help for your study. This will give you HT and FT score, shots, corners, bookings and sending offs plus a few bookmaker odds for the game and doals markets.

Football Betting | Football Results | Free Bets | Betting Odds

If you are clever enough you can collect Betfair odds from their API or there are probably paid sites that offer them. THere is also plenty of football software that can provide better information on goal times and sending off times as well.

But there are so many things that can affect the results and you would need to look into those as well. Some examples, weather, rain, temperature, rest since last game, rest to next game, International breaks, European games, injuries. Then the game progress would change the likelihood of results, an early goal for either the favourite or outsider, A sending off will impact the tactics for the game. Then motivation at the end of the season.

You can draw up a spreadsheet of all these factors and many others for each game and see what you pick up. Then see if you learn anything about how results vary over a season.

But it will be really tough to outsmart the syndicates and bookmakers on this market and 10% ROI is not very likely!

If you read around the forum on the site for football see what you pick up.

As you chose Leeds v West Ham tonight then you have an issue with a manager change. How will that affect the way a team plays? Does an unexpected win/loss in last game change things. A lot of work can be done to improve your understanding. Just collect some data and develop some patterns.

Football betting not really my game, the margins would generally be very low as bookmakers develop a lot of time and have great knowledge of the game, certainly at top ;eve;s.
 
My point M MaxiStavros was not to say anything bad but your trying to out think yourself by betting what you really think when things going good but bet against what you think when running cold and no one in a logical mind set would ever do that it shows the massive flaw in your thinking no matter how you back fit the results.
If you cant get it to show profit in your logical thinking then your not betting right games or right result IE over 2.5 goals.
I personally think the 2.5 is far to much luck involved as you have all the different things that can happen during game to change the score line and i would guess a lot more than just the specific result.
I think looking at goals in game can take away from the two teams involved in the match and the difference is i want to be betting on something that the actual teams want and over 2.5 goals in the great scheme of things is something neither team could care less about ,so if a team are up 2-0 which by way in bet365 you would be already up they only care about holding that two score lead so that's where the 2.5 goals can become tricky yet only one team is now trying to get goal and other team is tightening up to avoid that.
And that could be a big point in where your running hot and cold as soon as team take lead they naturally close shop even if unintentional.
So i would check results back and see how you would have done on a team going two goals up or it going 1-1 and you might find something
or you could bet in games 2 or 3 goals in total , i just quickly there looked at tightest game in english premier by odds and it is the man utd v brighton game over 2.5 is 8/15 under is 6/4 or the total goals in game is 2 goals 100/30 and 3 goals 100/30 so betting both these works out your 11/10 and you have both sides of the 2.5 goals this way for odds you look for. But again no team cares the score as long as its there,s.
Then you can look for game say like this and you fancy one team strongly you can bet them to win and 2-4 goals total take this game again.
man utd to win 2-4 goals total 12/5 stake £10 return £34
brighton to win 2-4 goals total 5/1 stake £10 return £60
draw to win 2-4 goals total 4/1 stake £10 return £50
So there is three results now with 2-4 and you get your 10% profit minimum right up to 100% profit possible and that is the tightest game of the league today.
But the main point is getting right game i dont know how this one will finish to be honest all i know from quick look is that mcquire and mount are both doubtfull with knocks from liverpool game and where two of there best players in that game so that's a negative but there also on high from winning at anfield so i would say the last bet i gave is not bad with would you take 10% profit from this game i would take 10% profit from anything as thats what your trying to achieve anyway so its that and do i think there will be between 2 and 4 goals total i do actually and do i think that's better chance today than over 2.5 goals i also do.
Just through ideas but no offence meant honestly.
 
MaxiStavros said:
Gerry, when I say I expect half of my bets will lose, this is based on the odds of the over 2.5 goals bet. I think you have misunderstood how I have used the term 'expect'? Of course every bet I place I am hoping, predicting and fancy my selection will win but of course if I place 100 bets at 2.0 on the exchanges then based on the odds one would expect 50% to win and 50% to lose. It would be crazy to expect all 100 bets to win, it is impossible. I would be happy with a 10% ROI which would mean a 55% success rate for 100 bets at 2.0. Do you expect every bet you place to win even though you must know it is impossible to win every bet you place? If not, how many do you expect would win?
I wonder if you understand variance in betting? I know it is not a concept widely mentioned. My whole point is that in betting we have hot and cold spells, leagues have hot and cold spells - last weekend 9 of the 10 Italian Serie A matches were under 2.5 goals. Players and teams have hot and cold spells, Mo Salah has not scored in his last 6 Liverpool games, Liverpool had lost 4 games on the bounce. It is the same in poker you can run well and everything goes your way but other times you just cannot seem to win no matter what. Maybe this is a concept alien to you but variance is real for everyone. The point I was making is that you should capitalise on this variance to work in your own favour to increase your success rate.
As for your comment about not working hard enough to analyse games, well this is up for debate. It depends what you think is important when it comes to analysing a game. Take Leeds v West Ham tonight, over 2.5 goals is 2.12 at the moment on the exchanges. It depends what you believe is important to analyse this match to determine whether this game will have goals. That is the key to success - finding the right things to analyse.
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I wonder if you understand variance in betting ?
OK explain it.
 
Hi
You will win only if find bookmakers odd errors. If you will bet correct odds - you always lose.

Only one way to get money - bet on higher Odd than real probability. Better do it in LIVE bets sure.
I did many systems to find over2.5, both to score, using statistics, get and analyze old data, but it is path to nowhere)

Now I am trying to bet LIVE team to score. Only underdogs, better 3rd level tournaments, look match stats, team stats. Then do my own analyze and bet if I think Odd must be less then it is. I don't keep statistics, just bet fo fun, but I see that it can be good way. It requires a lot of experience. You can use it for over2.5 also, but remember that Bigmarkets and pre-match line has fewer inflated coefficients that live)
 
hiberok said:
I did many systems to find over2.5, both to score, using statistics, get and analyze old data, but it is path to nowhere)
Click to expand...
I was looking through Premier League matches to see what type of fixtures had over 2.5 goals and one thing struck me, matches where a lesser team are at home to a stronger team produce more goals. For example Forest 3-0 Spurs, Leeds 3-1 Chelsea, Villa 2-1 Arsenal, Palace 0-3 Man City, Wolves 1-4 Man Utd, Leeds 3-3 Liverpool, Fulham 4-5 Man City, Leeds 1-2 Villa. Then in the Championship Norwich 2-1 Southampton, Sheff Wed 0-3 Derby, Charlton 1-2 Middlesbrough in the last week. I wonder if focusing on a simple approach like this could be profitable?
When you have a stronger team at home to a weaker team it seems to be more difficult because the away team play defensive and keep it tight and if the score gets to 2-0 the game often closes down in these games. Chelsea 2-0 Everton, Liverpool 2-0 Brighton, Arsenal 2-1 Wolves (was 1-0 after 89 mins), Man Utd 1-1 West Ham, Arsenal 2-0 Brentford, Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland, etc.
 
I agree with you because anytime i fancied a away team i always expected the home team to score too so like 2-1 or 3-1.
And when you look at teams that win leagues the some time nick home wins a lot by odd goal
 
hiberok said:
Now I am trying to bet LIVE team to score. Only underdogs, better 3rd level tournaments, look match stats, team stats. Then do my own analyze and bet if I think Odd must be less then it is. I don't keep statistics, just bet fo fun, but I see that it can be good way. It requires a lot of experience. You can use it for over2.5 also, but remember that Bigmarkets and pre-match line has fewer inflated coefficients that live)
Click to expand...
Can you give an example of what you are working on with live bets please?
I agree with you, the only way to make money is to find value and I agree that the odds are so well set pre-match that it’s hard to find value of any note over thousands of bets by betting on the pre match odds. The bookies have enormous amounts of data available to them to determine the odds, they show through their annual accounts that they are very profitable, whilst most punters are down, so it would be foolish of me to think my opinion has more accuracy than the bookies.
For that reason I am more interested in live betting myself too, especially when there has been a goal. I find that 0-0 is a problem scoreline, I don’t like to bet on an outcome when it’s 0-0, matches really need a goal to get things moving. It’s like a hand of poker, the more information you see in a hand such as the flop, the better your chances of knowing where you are at and how to bet. But I think you do need to study past data to know what is likely to happen.
I agree that one is wasting their time trying to beat over 2.5 goal bets, it is a really difficult bet to land, 0-0, 1-1 and 2-0 are problems for the next goal. Game management is a huge factor. Yesterday in the 38 PL, championship, league 1 and 2, only 20 were over 2.5 goals. My team Portsmouth have some decent attacking players and yet in 11 home games we’ve only had 5 over 2.5 goal matches, games rarely go as I expect. We beat Boro, Millwall and Preston but lost to Sheff Wed and Norwich the bottom two. Football is so unpredictable.
 
No I never interfere with the bets I place.
It is a non-negotiable rule I set for myself from the very beginning.
I do not interfere with where I bet, and I do not interfere with how much I bet.
I simply execute as if I were a robot.
 
MarvellousMarvinThomas said:
Can you give an example of what you are working on with live bets please?
I agree with you, the only way to make money is to find value and I agree that the odds are so well set pre-match that it’s hard to find value of any note over thousands of bets by betting on the pre match odds. The bookies have enormous amounts of data available to them to determine the odds, they show through their annual accounts that they are very profitable, whilst most punters are down, so it would be foolish of me to think my opinion has more accuracy than the bookies.
For that reason I am more interested in live betting myself too, especially when there has been a goal. I find that 0-0 is a problem scoreline, I don’t like to bet on an outcome when it’s 0-0, matches really need a goal to get things moving. It’s like a hand of poker, the more information you see in a hand such as the flop, the better your chances of knowing where you are at and how to bet. But I think you do need to study past data to know what is likely to happen.
I agree that one is wasting their time trying to beat over 2.5 goal bets, it is a really difficult bet to land, 0-0, 1-1 and 2-0 are problems for the next goal. Game management is a huge factor. Yesterday in the 38 PL, championship, league 1 and 2, only 20 were over 2.5 goals. My team Portsmouth have some decent attacking players and yet in 11 home games we’ve only had 5 over 2.5 goal matches, games rarely go as I expect. We beat Boro, Millwall and Preston but lost to Sheff Wed and Norwich the bottom two. Football is so unpredictable.
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For example, yesterday match Marocco - Comoros. Comoros to score Odd was 5.95 at second half start. I thought that they will have moments to score. And they had, but not score.
If I find, for exmple 5 these events and 1 win - I will win 0.95 of my stake, if 2 - 6.9 stake... etc.

This is an exaggerated example, but good for understanding. I usually bet Odds: 2.3-3.5.

That's only for example what is bookmaker mistake. And for Horse racing I and my friends looking for dropping Odds, for last hour to start, exclude last 5 minutes(because movement here create bets on Tops).
 
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