Fourth day today and unless the watering changes what we have been seeing up to now the high numbers might as well stay at home, in fact it might be that the near side rail is the place to be. There are so many variables with this watering on the straight course 6ml overnight and is it done in one go ? do the start at the 8f pole and work their way down ? Now it might be people think this is all too pedantic but the fact remains whatever they're doing we do still have a clear bias.On the face of it you would think they've got things well covered or watered but it is an interesting subject is it not ?
How often have we all watched racing and think we've seen a bias only for it to seemingly change the next day or even the same day.
My friend "pace" is a factor whenever we're talking about the effect of the draw, indeed it has always puzzled me that there's a bias on the all weather, newcastle as an example.
Anything you have for nowARAZI91 would be appreciated although i think we already know middle to high.
thanksmlmrob
Daily Racing Insight
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
ARAZI91
Mare
Babouche - Royal Ascot - 3.05
A race with plenty of deadwood despite the big field and of the front three clear in the market it could be a question of who takes to the firm ground the best. On private figures there is only a few lbs between all 3 with Shadow Of Light top by a pound from the filly Babouche with Jonquil 2lbs below Babouche, a tight 3lb spread - and although the top two have stronger bodies of work, that is only down to opportunity.
Babouche at the current odds appeals much more than the other two especially on today's projected firm ground. She was sensational in her trial for this having come on from a debut when not fully tuned up and cruised through the race clocking 3 sub 11.00s. sectionals - the fastest being 10.21 and fastest sectional on the card that day - the ground had good to firm in places in the clerks description but was good to firm on times especially in the straight. She confirmed superiority over Whistlejacket by a bigger margin than when a 2yo and could have extended that advantage if needed - at the 2 furlong pole when others were starting to get serious having just ran two furlongs in under 11.00 secs Keane was sitting motionless ready to go again in under 11.00 and only needing to apply minimum pressure as she met the rising ground to be kept up to her work. The final time that day came back short of fast but at 3.7lbs per length i reckon she could have made up some of that shortfall to be in the ballpark. She also has back form as a 2yo that back up this run in taking The Phoenix in a very fast time last August and again the ground was on times good to firm. She is a real sprinter type who always looked as if she needs a stiff 6f at pace and with a high draw today and a fantastic jockey in my book the 11/2 (decimal 7 on BF) at the moment appeals far more than SOL's 15/8 or a decimal 3 on BF.
A race with plenty of deadwood despite the big field and of the front three clear in the market it could be a question of who takes to the firm ground the best. On private figures there is only a few lbs between all 3 with Shadow Of Light top by a pound from the filly Babouche with Jonquil 2lbs below Babouche, a tight 3lb spread - and although the top two have stronger bodies of work, that is only down to opportunity.
Babouche at the current odds appeals much more than the other two especially on today's projected firm ground. She was sensational in her trial for this having come on from a debut when not fully tuned up and cruised through the race clocking 3 sub 11.00s. sectionals - the fastest being 10.21 and fastest sectional on the card that day - the ground had good to firm in places in the clerks description but was good to firm on times especially in the straight. She confirmed superiority over Whistlejacket by a bigger margin than when a 2yo and could have extended that advantage if needed - at the 2 furlong pole when others were starting to get serious having just ran two furlongs in under 11.00 secs Keane was sitting motionless ready to go again in under 11.00 and only needing to apply minimum pressure as she met the rising ground to be kept up to her work. The final time that day came back short of fast but at 3.7lbs per length i reckon she could have made up some of that shortfall to be in the ballpark. She also has back form as a 2yo that back up this run in taking The Phoenix in a very fast time last August and again the ground was on times good to firm. She is a real sprinter type who always looked as if she needs a stiff 6f at pace and with a high draw today and a fantastic jockey in my book the 11/2 (decimal 7 on BF) at the moment appeals far more than SOL's 15/8 or a decimal 3 on BF.
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First two winners drawn in trap one, watering deciding the results.
ARAZI91
Mare
Babouche much too free early on there and you cannot get away with that in a TT , bombed out and looked lit up first time in a big field - hope she comes back ok as too bad to be true - Shadow Of Light - maybe prefer ground with a bit more juice - seven furlongs ??
You would have thought that could have been the fastest CC since the race began in 2015 - but no Advertise broke the 72 sec barrier going 71.88 on officially Good to Soft in 2019 although today's race does just beat what was second fastest - Muhaarar's 72.05 in 2015 by 0.02 sec
R rbtblb82 - any part of the tricast ???
They needed to do something bookies whinging like little bitches last 2 days , lost on every race apparently, costing them £1000s a day for a pitch and £1000s on every race, I am just waiting for the appeal on the adverts in between racing instead of African kids or Bile bears we can give our £10 a month to the lovely bookies in their time of need. Strategic watering will hopefully make the results more random and help them out.
ARAZI91
Mare
3rd not good enough on the day, possibly didn't stay the 10f as leader and the late money for the Johnston colt was telling which meant a drift on HB - saw that Hot Dancer's owner Jaber Abdullah had already had a winner up at Redcar earlier and know that Johnston had struck form over the last couple of weeks - looking at Abdullah's runners with Johnston going back to the 11th June reads
Hot Dancer won 7/4
Marhaba Ghaiyyath won 6/4
Amora Queen won 7/2
Marhaba Ghaiyyath 2nd btn hd 8/1
Timeforshowcasing won 9/2
Champion Island won 4/9
Try Storm Cat 2nd btn hd 13/8
I didn't hear many complaints about what they've done with watering but surely it is a nonsense, there was a golden highway under the nearside rail on thursday but none of the jockeys wanted to go near it on friday, so i presume they walked the track and knew what punters didn't.
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sniper7
Yearling
5.00 A Game Run is a value each-way for me. His female tail-line has Bahamian as a 3rd Dam (dam of Oasis Dream) (dam of Zenda which is dam of Kingman) and in form. LTO won on Chantilly a month ago BUT he likes soft ground as results show. His rate is the average OR of the race and he is a long-shot 66-1 at the moment. Let's hope that he 'll reach 80-1 or even better. I don't think that he 'll win but a place price of 12/1 looks nice.
You know your pedigrees
sniper7 but you say he likes soft ground which he won't get today unless there's a biblical downpour but best of luck.
markfinn
Sire
a too often overlooked observation when looking just considering stats
mick
Sire
Anyone reading there T&Cs and Validation requirements would not be opening an account anyway because you are agreeing to allow them to freeze your account and money when you commit the ultimate sin of asking for a withdrawal. Tbf i would not expect these behaviors from the on course independents but its becoming increasingly difficult to trust the rest of them. !
I always said and stick to it, there should be a pop up window on all bookies websites explaining that they do not tolerate winning customers, and if you do win they reserve the right to make in very difficult to get you money and reserve the right to close your account and hold your money in limbo. Also they reserve the right to treat you like a thief if you take one of there prices and it returns lower. Also it will be frowned upon and end in account closure if you don’t spin away money like a lunatic on there casino that is rigged to guarantee they make money.And to proceed only if you have more money than sense and zero prospect of ever winning or you are not welcome.
mlmrob
Sire
Yoshimi in the first at Catterick is interesting today at a price. He has run 29 times over 7f and finished in the frame 14 times with 8 wins. That can be broken down to
In Races where the max OR is 72, 6 wins, 3 places, 15 races
In races where he runs off a mark of 65 or less, 4 wins, 1 place from 8 races
Combined reads 1815131
He can be bet down to five places today.
It may not be his day but he is too big a price to ignore and a lot of these have trouble winning. Stall 8 isn't great but his jockey is 2-5 on him including the last time he had these conditions back in December when he won.
In Races where the max OR is 72, 6 wins, 3 places, 15 races
In races where he runs off a mark of 65 or less, 4 wins, 1 place from 8 races
Combined reads 1815131
He can be bet down to five places today.
It may not be his day but he is too big a price to ignore and a lot of these have trouble winning. Stall 8 isn't great but his jockey is 2-5 on him including the last time he had these conditions back in December when he won.
mlmrob
Sire
Crowns Lady, 4.50 Catterick, has improved her Timeform rating since arriving at Ed Bethell's with ratings of 69-72-76 and 82 in her four races. Callum Rodriguez is 211 on her.
A couple of races back she was favourite to beat Zapphire and Vixey and she finished third in that 0-85. She then dropped back into a 0-75 last time and duly won. Back over the same course and distance in the same grade of race she has the 3yos to beat today. She has to give 8lbs WFA plus apprentice allowance to handicap debutant Left Over Love who makes her turf debut. She left the 3yos standing in her last race and is probably a little bit better than this mark.
A couple of races back she was favourite to beat Zapphire and Vixey and she finished third in that 0-85. She then dropped back into a 0-75 last time and duly won. Back over the same course and distance in the same grade of race she has the 3yos to beat today. She has to give 8lbs WFA plus apprentice allowance to handicap debutant Left Over Love who makes her turf debut. She left the 3yos standing in her last race and is probably a little bit better than this mark.
