Creating an Oddsline

[Outlander]

I think the thread has gone away from my initial description. Its perfectly valid to talk about how one would aggregate and in some way get a spread of possible ratings given the last X ratings of a horse but this is not what I am describing. The ML algorithm produces one probability (I will stop using rating) for the race. The question is what is the possible range, say 90% range of probabilities it may have. The residual errors on past training data is used to create a range

about creating an oddsline from ratings. Essentially it revolved around formulating a normal distribution of ratings for a horse,

Using these derived ranges we can then perform a monte carlo simulation, thats the part that tests it all thousands of times, to get an oddsline.

So if horse horse A is a 65 horse with a range of 60 to 70 and randomly 70 is picked whilst randomly 65 is picked for horse A then horse B is predicted to win. Do this many thousands of times and use the win scores to create a probability for each horse.

Silly me got the complete wrong eng of the stick for some reason I thought it was a thread about using ratings to create an oddsline. How I veered off into this territory I will never know when it’s so clear the thread has absolutely nothing to do with that, what a brain fart I had.