• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

C'mon Leeds!

The Glazer family has extracted over £1.3 billion from Manchester United through share sales, dividends, and other fees since their leveraged buyout in 2005. They have accumulated roughly £465 million from selling shares and over £150 million in dividends, alongside other financial payments, while the club has carried over £700m in debt.
markfinn markfinn , i think that is how the very wealthy live. As long as they are not over leveraged then if a crash happens the Glazer family will be OK financially for a long time. If they get wrong then they lose.

Arkle
 
arkle55 said:
The Glazer family has extracted over £1.3 billion from Manchester United through share sales, dividends, and other fees since their leveraged buyout in 2005. They have accumulated roughly £465 million from selling shares and over £150 million in dividends, alongside other financial payments, while the club has carried over £700m in debt.
markfinn markfinn , i think that is how the very wealthy live. As long as they are not over leveraged then if a crash happens the Glazer family will be OK financially for a long time. If they get wrong then they lose.

Arkle
Click to expand...

they are trying to buy into the IPL

Avram Glazer attempting IPL takeover to do what he couldn’t with the European Super League, says expert​

Last week, Avram Glazer reportedly submitted a £1.3bn offer to buy reigning Indian Premier League champions Royal Challengers Bengaluru. Rajasthan Royals are also said to be on his hit list.

The oldest Glazer sibling has long had ambitions in cricket, the second most watched sport on the planet. In 2021, shortly after the Super League collapse, he failed in a bid to buy one of two IPL expansion franchises. A few months later, he bought Desert Vipers, who compete in the ILT20 league in the United Arab Emirates. More recently, he tried – and failed – to buy a team in England’s Hundred competition.

Average revenues for IPL franchises are far, far more modest than what Manchester United earn. In the last financial year, they turned over just north of £40m. Several clubs in the Championship – including those without parachute payments – can hit those heights in any given season.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru players celebrate winning Indian Premier League

Photo by ARUN SANKAR/AFP via Getty Images
The difference, however, is profit and scalability.

“The big challenge for those who want to make money out of football is that you don’t have guaranteed revenues because the very lucrative competitions, such as the Champions League, are only available to a few clubs each season,” explains University of Liverpool football finance lecturer Kieran Maguire in exclusive conversation with United in Focus.

“Yes, we are likely to have five Premier League clubs in the Champions League going forward, which favours United. That was one of the concessions that Manchester United and the other European Super League clubs managed to extract from UEFA. But the frustration for Avram Glazer is that if you contrast the Premier League to the NFL or IPL, for example, you don’t get very many advert breaks. Those competitions are marketing products with a sport bolted on to keep people tuned in. Cricket is like that because you get natural breaks at the end of every over and wicket, so it’s exactly what you want from an advertiser’s perspective.

“I think Avram Glazer is probably ruing not getting in earlier. He certainly had bids rejected because he tried to low-ball, but this time it looks like he’s going to pay the market rate.
 
Leodis Leodis , off the top of my head, ain't Wolves one of those teams that Spurs struggle to beat even when Spurs have been higher up the table in the past few seasons. But then i guess Wolves are struggling more now then previous season's.
Two matches in and things have not quiet gone to plan shall we say with the new manager.



Arkle
 
Tonight's match report:

I will catch up with the other post's a bit later :)



Bournemouth vs Leeds United

Complete Quantitative Summary & Market Assessment Table

CategoryMetricBournemouth (Home)Leeds United (Away)Model‑Implied Assessment / Fair Odds
League ContextLeague Position9th15thBournemouth structurally higher
Points4839Clear class separation
Recent Form (Last 5)RecordW2 D3 L0W2 D2 L1Bournemouth unbeaten
Goals For65Similar attacking output
Goals Against42Leeds slightly tighter
Home / Away Context*Home ResultsD–D—Bournemouth home = controlled
Away ResultsD-W–WD-WLeeds moderate away
Opponent Quality FacedElite OpponentsARS, MANU, NEWMANUBournemouth tested higher
Match Performance Level (MPL)MPL13.259.10Strong opponent‑weighted edge
Goal PerformanceGoal Diff+2+3Leeds efficiency marginally higher
GPR0.801.20Finishing edge: Leeds
Power RatingPower Rating14.0510.30Clear numerical separation
MomentumDirectionRising ↑Stable →Bournemouth trend stronger
VolatilityModerateHigherLeeds more outcome‑sensitive
Match Odds (1X2)Home Win——2.05 fair odds
Draw——3.70 fair odds
Away Win——4.15 fair odds
Goals – 2.5 LineOver 2.5——1.85 fair odds
Under 2.5——2.10 fair odds
BTTS MarketBTTS – Yes——1.75 fair odds
BTTS – No——2.20 fair odds
Correct Score – Tier 11–1——6.80 fair odds
2–1 Bournemouth——7.20 fair odds
Correct Score – Tier 22–2——11.0 fair odds
1–0 Bournemouth——8.50 fair odds
Correct Score – Low Prob.Leeds 1–0——12.5+ fair odds
Bournemouth 3–0——15.0+ fair odds
Clean‑Sheet OutlookLikelihoodLowVery LowBTTS strongly favoured
Overall Match ShapeDominanceControlReactiveBournemouth dictate phases
Final Analytical EdgeStructural AdvantageYesNoBournemouth better insulated
*Home/Away context is descriptive only, not a separate calculation layer.

Final Analytical Assessment (Concise)

  • Primary edge: Bournemouth (class, MPL, control)
  • Strongest aligned market: BTTS – Yes
  • Secondary alignment: Narrow‑margin Bournemouth win or draw
  • Most fragile outcomes: Leeds clean‑sheet victories
  • Variance driver: Draw probability driven by shared scoring
Model‑implied match character:

Controlled Bournemouth advantage with high shared‑scoring probability and narrow scorelines dominating the outcome space.
 
arkle55 said:
Leodis Leodis , off the top of my head, ain't Wolves one of those teams that Spurs struggle to beat even when Spurs have been higher up the table in the past few seasons. But then i guess Wolves are struggling more now then previous season's.
Two matches in and things have not quiet gone to plan shall we say with the new manager.



Arkle
Click to expand...
Wolves can be a handful when they want, but the form has dipped again and Spurs are starting to come alive (a tiny bit). I am prepared to exit the trades if looking dodgy :-D
 
A well earned point the other night! 3 more from Burnley and we should be ok.

Tonight's match report

Summary table (last 5 games)​


Item​
Sunderland (Home)​
Nottm Forest (Away)​
Model edge / note​
League pts​
46​
36​
Sunderland higher in table​
Last 5 results​
W L W W L​
D D W D W​
Forest unbeaten; Sunderland mixed​
MPL​
9.78​
9.39​
Sunderland slightly higher MPL​
GPR​
0.40​
2.40​
Forest far superior goal form​
Power Rating​
10.18​
11.79​
Forest +1.61​
Avg goals per match (GF/GA)​
1.40 / 1.20​
2.00 / 0.80​
Forest higher scoring, better GD​
Home/away bias​
Mixed; notable away wins​
Strong away resilience​
Forest momentum advantage​
Model win probs​
37.1% [2.69]​
42.9% [2.33]​
Draw 20% [5.00]​
Over 2.5 / BTTS​
55% [1.81] / 70% [1.43]​
—​
High likelihood both teams score​
Top expected scoreline​

​
1–2 (Away scenario)​
1–2 highest single outcome (28%)​

Probabilities & fair odds (model)​


Scoreline​
Probability​
Fair decimal odds​
1–2​
28%​
3.57​
1–1​
18%​
5.56​
2–2​
12%​
8.33​
2–1​
10%​
10.00​
0–2​
8%​
12.50​
Other (combined)​
24%​
4.16​


Brief team summaries (end report)​


Sunderland (Home)
  • Overview: Mid-table team with higher class weight; last 5 show sporadic wins including notable away victories but also recent heavy concession (4 goals at Villa).​
  • Tactical/analytic note: MPL solid but low GPR indicates results without dominant goal differential — suggests games are close and sometimes high-scoring. Home form inconsistent.​

Nottm Forest (Away)
  • Overview: Lower in table but unbeaten in last 5; strong attacking output and effective away performances against tough opponents.
  • Tactical/analytic note: High GPR and unbeaten run signal positive attacking momentum and more consistent recent performances; defensively tighter in the sample.

Final verdict (analytical, non‑predictive)
  • Based on the supplied data and prescribed methodology: Nottingham Forest hold the higher Power Rating and superior attacking momentum; model leans to an away win (most likely single scoreline 1–2) and anticipates a multi‑goal match with high probability both teams score.
  • Best model-backed market propositions (model-only): BTTS and Over 2.5.
 
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Notts Forest have laid the pressure on Spurs and Wham - big time!

Just noticed the Leeds match is not on freeview tv (again), but City's is. Twats!!

Anyway, the match report for Spurs:



1. League Context Comparison​

Despite Tottenham being 18th and Wolves being 20th, both are locked in a relegation struggle. However, their "Class Weightings" (0.896 for Spurs vs 0.500 for Wolves) show that based on season-long points, Tottenham has historically been the stronger side, even if current form suggests a shift.

2. Recent Form Analysis​

  • Wolverhampton (Home Bias): Wolves are a transformed side at Molineux. Their last two home games resulted in wins over top-tier opposition (Aston Villa and Liverpool). Their poor overall rating is dragged down by heavy away defeats.
  • Tottenham (Away Bias): Spurs are in a crisis of momentum. They have failed to win any of their last 5 matches. Their only points came from draws where they were largely defensive, including a 1-1 at Liverpool.

3. Power Ratings & Momentum Assessment​

  • Wolverhampton Power Rating: 9.482
  • Tottenham Power Rating: 0.609
Momentum: Wolves are trending upward significantly when playing at home. Their MPL (11.082) is one of the highest in the league for a bottom-three side. Tottenham’s momentum is near zero; their GPR is the primary anchor holding back their rating.

4. Estimated Fair Odds & Projections​

MarketSelectionEstimated OddsComment
Match ResultHome (Wolves)1.65Wolves' home form against "Class 1" teams is elite.
Draw4.20Possible if Wolves' defensive inconsistency returns.
Away (Spurs)5.50Significant outlier based on current 0-win streak.
Total GoalsOver 2.51.85Both teams have conceded 10 goals in their last 5.
Under 2.52.05Only likely if Spurs play for a 0-0.
BTTSYes1.80Both teams have a negative GPR (conceding often).
Expected Scorelines:
  1. 2–1 (Reflects Wolves' home scoring trend)
  2. 3–1 (Reflects Spurs' defensive leaks)
  3. 1–1 (The "desperation" draw)

5. Consolidated Summary Table​

MetricWolverhampton (Home)Tottenham (Away)Advantage
League Rank20th18thTottenham
Class Weight0.5000.896Tottenham
MPL (Last 5)11.0823.009Wolverhampton
GPR (Goals)-1.600-2.400Wolverhampton
Power Rating9.4820.609Wolverhampton

Final Verdict​

The quantitative analysis suggests a massive value discrepancy. While the league table views this as a "Bottom of the Table" clash, the Match Performance Level (MPL) reveals that Wolverhampton is currently playing like a top-half team when at home, having dispatched two high-weight opponents recently. Tottenham, conversely, is in a freefall; their Power Rating of 0.609 is one of the lowest possible for a team not currently on a 5-game losing streak.
Analytical Conclusion: Wolverhampton are heavy statistical favorites. The primary risk factor is their high goal-concession rate, but Tottenham’s lack of offensive output (GPR -2.400) makes them unlikely to exploit it.
 
and Wham's report:

Market Analysis & Estimated Fair Odds​

MarketSelectionEstimated OddsAnalytical Comments
Match Result (1X2)Home (West Ham)2.25West Ham’s power rating is buoyed by high-quality draws against Man City and away wins at Fulham. Despite the league table, they are "punching up" effectively.
Draw3.70A strong statistical possibility; both teams have recorded draws in their last 5, and West Ham’s defensive structure has tightened recently.
Away (Everton)3.50Everton’s rating suffers from losing to top-tier opposition (Arsenal/Liverpool) and picking up points against lower-weighted teams like Burnley.
Total GoalsUnder 2.51.70West Ham has conceded only 3 goals in 5 games (GPR 1.20). The model favors a low-scoring affair as Everton adjusts to the loss of key defenders.
Over 2.52.15Less likely, but potential exists if Everton’s attacking efficiency (8 goals in 5) breaks through West Ham’s recent low-block success.
Both Teams To ScoreBTTS: No1.85Slightly favored due to West Ham’s recent clean sheet against Wolves and 0-0 draw with Palace, suggesting a "shut-out" mentality.
BTTS: Yes1.95Everton has scored in 4 of their last 5, making this a very narrow margin.
Scorelines1–1 / 1–0VariousThe most probable outcomes are a 1-1 draw (momentum balance) or a narrow 1-0 West Ham win (defensive efficiency edge).

Final Team Summary​

West Ham United

Despite their 17th-place position, the Hammers are the "form" team in this specific quantitative model. Their ability to secure a 9.81 Power Rating stems from a rigorous strength-of-schedule performance, notably holding Manchester City and winning at Fulham. They enter this match with high defensive momentum, having conceded very few goals relative to the quality of their recent opponents.

Everton

Everton sits comfortably in mid-table (10th) but shows signs of "flat-track" performance—succeeding against struggling teams but failing to scale their performance against the league's elite. With a 8.06 Power Rating, they are analytically the underdogs here. Their success depends on whether their superior league pedigree can overcome a West Ham side that is currently operating at a much higher efficiency level than their rank suggests.
 
Well come on Leeds - I have connections going today( many of us will) disappointing it’s not on free to air TV - hopefully all connections they have a happy day and journey home - the league results yesterday went against us upto a point , but we have to keep grinding .
 
When you look at Chelsea's recent form, it seems to collapse after PSG whooped them 8-2 on aggregate. They had beaten Aston Villa away 4-1, then the ELO points dropped off a cliff. Not scoring and losing home and away 0-3! New caretaker manager might not make much difference.

1777199275216.png

By contrast, Leeds have grinded their way, only losing to Newcastle 3-4 (last minute) in the last 7 away games, gaining 25 ELO away points.
Leeds win at Man Utd is the key score, as it shows they can win a big game under pressure.

1777199433940.png


Hard to predict match ups in the cup, but comparing away games records only, my tissue isn't far removed from the live market.
Value in the Draw/Leeds odds it seems.


1777200066152.png


The Correct score odds that appear value, in the top 7 are: 0-1 @13.50, 0-2 @24.00, 0-3 @65.00, 1-2 @14.50.
1777200372087.png


1777200433147.png
 
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