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Classifieds

doomster

doomster

Dam
Looks like we have a few of these low grade races coming up over the next few.

I've put them up on a seperate thread as many members won't be interested in the "class" horse generally being rated 50, but feel free to comment.

Will post when I have chance, but generally be using easybet overnight prices, so there will definitely be some swings in price.

Southwell 7.00 Jesse Luc @ 8.8
Trulie Good @ 18.0

70/30 Split

Jesse Luc got the required 2lb to get into this, for his last run at Chelmsford over 7f, were he probably went too hard early, especially off a 6 month break.

His best run last year was at Kempton over 6f, finishing 3rd off 57 and todays fav finsished 6lths behind JL . JL is 3lb better off from that run.

Autumn Angel may have improved since, but I'd prefer Bernie The Bear to reverse the placings from last week.

Trip is an issue for Trulie Good, especially off a long break, but the trainer comes out of hibernation now, with 36% of his career wins coming at Southwell & Wolver from Jan to March.

He had a couple of fair runs last January with the only poor run coming in a classified were he tried to take on a hc blot, who was raised 20lb for next two runs.
 
The 2nd division looks really tough to figure and maybe go for small combo f/c's & t/c's.

Initial thoughts.

Kapparis Kid looks the best option, but just too short at the moment. No surprise if it did drift late on.

Jazz State has failed to record a TS figure in three runs and is 50.0 and drifting, which is no surprise as he's been stone last in all three runs.

My only angle is it's moved to Cowell who managed to get the only win out of the half sister, steps up in trip ( 5f looks best on pedigree) and 1st time headgear.

Angel Of Mathers ( 25.0). Very similar to Jazz State; moderate and and possible aimed at this basement level.

Liv Lucky ( 15.0). Another Bowring horse who wouldn't be surprise to pick this up and is closely tied to the one of the market leaders, Glory Call (8.0) who looks the best of them in my view.

Glory Call finished a head 2nd when last seen over C&D in a 0-55 h/c. Liv Lucky finished 5th in the earlier division in a slightly faster time.

Dutch on the four mentioned only plays 3/1, but will stagger stakes to make GC the stronger bet if I play in the win market.
 
Wolver 4.20 Sir Laurence Graff W&P 40/60 Split @ 11.0/2.6

I was against the fav on Thursday and I'm happy to oppose again. Lightly raced and clearly prepped to pick up a couple of these ( has 3 more entries next week), he could easily hit trouble in running, as he can be slow out the stalls and has stall 7 to deal with.

Next in the betting National Health is another with few miles on the clock and likely to have these in mind, but the failed hurdler is again way too short in the betting. Probably see more intent today, but the longer trip at Kempton next week looks his best opportunity.

Sir LG had a h/c win last September, which looks a similar grade to today. He won off 47, but the 2nd and 3rd are now rated 54 & 55 and also had a wide trip, so ran over a length further than both.

It was a poor race he ran in LTO and pulled harder than usual, but he never had a chance from a poor position. The 10th and 11th placed horses have since won. The fact he got met trouble probably worked well in that he got a drop for this race.

Got a wide draw again, but his price compensates and the looks to be a couple of pace horses in the race.
 
Kempton 5.00 Largo Bay. General 4/1

3 months off is a concern, but even for a classified this is a poor bunch, complicated further by the fact there is no field form whatsoever over todays 11f.

LB's best career win came here over 12f and he does win his share of low grade races and there are only three runners in opposition classed as "unexposed".

Only three of todays field managed a win last season and LB managed two of a total 4 wins, both in Jan/Feb off 52 & 54, in slightly stronger company.

The other winners last year were St. James Woods who won off 46 on turf over 3f shorter and Sneaky Binder who won over 10f on turf ( Race future form 0/21 with 1 place) off 48.

Disquietude could be smashed, as the half brother won over C&D off 68, under a similar campaign for the same trainer and owner. Raised 11lb for run on Saturday, still leaves her needing more improvement which may well come.

This was probably the plan for Disquitude after a freshner on Saturday @ 50/1, but the race was so poor she finished a well beaten 2nd, in a slower time than the 1st div. She travelled well, so step up should not be an issue, but I still not get involved at the price.

The 2nd fav Gentle Fire had no chance in a 0-60 last week, so may improve but the winner of that race bombed at odds on . She will pick up one of these bad races, but the concern that this will be too sharp for LB, is greater re Gentle Fire.

4/1 for LB even off a break and 7yo, still makes appeal for me against this bunch,
 
An exercise I did with Classifieds on the AW after Craig Forsyth had said that the majority were won by horses rated 49 and 50. He is correct in that 54% of the races are won by horses rated 49 and 50 but a huge loss would accrue following all blindly.

Track by Track since 2021

1736672960169.png

Southwell's record on Tapeta stands at 48%.

Lingfield stands at 68% and today the following qualify.

12.12 Charlatan, Reel Power
12.42 Match Anthem
14.12 Lilkian.

The rules I used.

All Weather
Classified Stakes
100% field had run at least five times.
OR 49 or 50.
 
It seems these races are targeted far more in advance by trainers than in previous years. It might be my imagination, but there also seems to be more than usual.

Horsewatchers buying a 45 rated horse is a surprise to me, but Dash Gordon looks a standout.

Typically , I'm going against it, as it looks like it's Trulie Good's Cup Final today, back in this grade and trip, which resulted in a win last February.

Couple of problems I have is the trainer runs two in race and Edmunds rides Liv Lucky and decided how to frame my bets.

Edmunds record when trainer has 2/3 runners in the same race is poor, so no issues there.

Both are around 50.0 on the exhange so can cover both in the win markets, but the place markets are skewed and make little appeal.

The w/o fav looks the best option, hopefully around 13.0 for each of them.
 
Late money on Betfair for the 2 x Bowring runners @
doomster
doomster.

Both will be found the right race this AW campaign.
Click to expand...
It was all mine pinemarten pinemarten :(

Could have taken a 6/4 profit with no liability but let them ride.
 
Well done yesterday mlmrob mlmrob

I've been playing about with HRB whilst lazing on the sunbed, trying to merge a couple,then stripping them back.

By pure accident I removed the NH filter and gave me 10 qualiers for today, with 3 winners @ 7/2, 33/1 & 25/1. It will give me something to do when I get home.

Chelmsford 6.30 War Zone W&P (30/70 split 3 place market)

I was on the fav a couple of runs back when I got the "value" but no cash.

I was going to leave the race alone, as much as I want to take on a poor horse with a 5lb penalty, but changed my mind with WZ available at 2.5 in the 3TBP market.

He's a huge drifter in the win market, which can often throw up an opportunity in the place only market.

The three horses to finish behind him LTO have picked up 4 races since and he did finish a hd 2nd last August in a similar race to today ( TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother fig of 55). He did get WFA, but appears a genuine type at this level.
 
Done Pop Favourite 19:45 Ncl

Took 9/2 last night. Woke up and it was 7/2 books and 6's on BF!?!

Gone close the last two runs over C&D and Dixon maybe back in form.
 
Certainly got the price right P PHS

I've got no facts to back my assuption up, but it does seem the "held up in rear" at Newcastle don't appear to do as well as normal.

I could not figure why the classsified,( which use to be C7) had more prizemoney than the C5 h/cap last night.
 
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These type of races depend so much on trying to get inside a trainers head and how they might get a win out of a poor horse.
The 3.50 wolvs tomorrow over 6f looks another crappy race but something has to win it so i looked to see if i could spot a trainer doing what they all should be trying to do ie get down to a mark below it's ability, on a good day that is.
ANGLESEY LAD rated 50 was rated 55 this time last year so not much room for maneuver there but has changed yards to Dixon who lives in this world and i see he has used a tactic of running in races where he had little chance but managed to cope against horses rated higher than his mark.
For instance 3rd march cl6 5f wolvs only 5-9 but had horses rated around 59 behind him, he ran off a mark of 54 then and was dropped another 2lbs for his last race a cl5 again over 5f wolvs and the numbers might flatter him even at the weights but he was dropped another 2lbs for this effort.
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18:00 | Wolverhampton | Saturday 15th March 2025 | At The Races

18:00 | Wolverhampton | Saturday 15th March 2025 | Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap
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Question is then has Dixon found a way of getting into a 0.50 by running AL in the wrong race over perhaps the wrong distance ?

To be honest it is only a theory on my part but trainers do need to work within a system without being caught cheating and who knows what's in his mind but i do believe there's enough in there to make it worth a second look.
 
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