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Class/form horses

Larry said:
Hi Chesham Chesham yes I knew what you mean't but I was a little worried I may be tarred with the same brush because I often view many different threads without any input from myself as I honestly don't understand a lot of what is posted. On the inner sanctum you have given me some very useful insights into setting up systems on HRB so I can only thank you & many others for your help
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I often look at other threads without joining in, but like yourself do make contributions to Threads that I think I can contribute to. Remebr you started the Study Of Man Thread and also the New Sire Thread. Even VDW wrote an article on “Breeding “ although it gets overlooked by the VDW Enthusiasts , but he was looking at Horses that had the stamina aspect for races like the Old Newton Cup and Lancashire Oaks Not to mention being mentioned in the To-Agori Mou examples .

He was looking at Sires but these days it has moved on

In the context of genetic testing (such as the Plusvital Speed Gene test), a C:C designation means the horse possesses two "speed" variants of the myostatin gene. [1]

    • C:C (Speed): Best suited to shorter races, typically sprinting distances from 5 furlongs up to a mile.
    • C:T (Middle-Distance): Suited to intermediate distances, combining moderate speed and stamina (often up to 10–12 furlongs).
    • T:T (Stamina): Best suited to long-distance and stamina tests (beyond 12 furlongs).

  • Years ago I was into Spread Match Betting with 3 y-O in group and listed Races over 10f to 12f . and quite often the pedigree Anlysis could spot which of the two in the Match had the best stamina profile if the pace looked to be a honest one. The Good News back then was that the horse that you preferred in the Match did not need to win, as ling as it finished in front of the other horse in the match and beat the spread margin.

  • The reason that I liked it back then is that betting was being taxed off course and the spread firm that I used absorbed the tax withing its spread, so winnings were tax free
 
Tufnel Tufnel

Do any of the newspapers you've accessed through the British newspaper archives on line include the data needed to calculate ability ratings? All the ones I have were calculated from the Sporting Life, but reading the films on the machines at Boston Spa was a bit hit and miss because while some films were crystal clear others were very definitely not. It would be good if there was an online source for the data.

Calculating ARs through the Form Books is possible, of course, but time-consuming, and one needs all the relevant ones. Thanks to the generosity of a member of the forum I have most, but can only go back to 1977 on the Flat and 1977/8 on the NH.
 
Hi Tufnel Tufnel,
Tufnel said:
I don't know if @
Nellsman
Nellsman has those missing pages, which could be very interesting but the other thing that caught my eye is the similarity between the handwriting for that note and the handwriting in the letters that VDW sent to Tony Peach in late 95 early 96.
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Those are my scribbles at the bottom of the note. I did not make the table myself, it was made by someone who was on a VDW forum that I was a member of. Not sure who the author was but it may have been Fulham. If memory serves me correctly there were other VDW examples laid out the same way. If anyone is interested I'll try to find them and post them.
 
JennyK said:
Tufnel Tufnel

Do any of the newspapers you've accessed through the British newspaper archives on line include the data needed to calculate ability ratings? All the ones I have were calculated from the Sporting Life, but reading the films on the machines at Boston Spa was a bit hit and miss because while some films were crystal clear others were very definitely not. It would be good if there was an online source for the data.

Calculating ARs through the Form Books is possible, of course, but time-consuming, and one needs all the relevant ones. Thanks to the generosity of a member of the forum I have most, but can only go back to 1977 on the Flat and 1977/8 on the NH.
Click to expand...
Yes you certainly can though it takes longer than the form books I suspect. You have to keep checking if you’ve missed a win by looking at a card that shows their last 6 runs. So it’s manual work and not like looking at the Life or Post. What is very useful is that the Mirror usually pinpointed last time out performances with 1st prize, weight carried, SP and who it beat or was beaten by with some weight given or rcvd details.

Also the Daily Record used to show one or maybe two last runs form for each runner much like the Life or Post did. Useful for checking key horses etc.

It would be great if the Life was on there too.

In fact I’ve found seeing the cards on the day and then checking past results manually very informative and much clearer than the old SCHB scans. Certainly has helped me understand more on the handicap hurdles method now I can see more info and also with the Stray Shot and Zamandra form. Interesting to see what ratings for spot form were on past races too.
 
The 2:59 at Ffos Lls had a top rated class/form horse who had all 3 runs in higher class and won on the last of them. Carried just 1 lb more today dropped from an 8k race to a 4k race.

Missed opportunity due to other commitments today.
 
This my first ever go at vdw in the way he has told us to do everything reading the notes nagwa nagwa put up and read them for the first time just today there is only two races you could even attempt to look at tomorrow if doing it correct and that is the 3 29 and the 4 04 at hamilton the first thing i can tell you is i am not to far from there and been raining just about all day so will deff be soft at best.
I wont bore anyone by listing up lists of ability ratings and consistency as every one knows how to do this but i believe these where not bets any way they were lists to show what horses had shown ability and running well enough to have chance in the race in fact better way would be they where to get rid of the horses between these two factors who could not win the race.
From what i could read and i know every one seems to think its not all there who knows but once we had the facts of ability and consistency to compete in the race he seemed to suggest obviously not always but the more you drift from the top 5 in betting the less likely your going to have the winner which does make sense not always but in general is correct.
I was doing it exact way he said nothing different left me what i thought was the supposedly horses left in and then the betting which could change if one gets gambled in closer to race time and i would have to dramatic take on that if was one of my five left in you would have to as long was higher up in ratings.
The first race the 3 29 you where left with three quiet straight forward they where EL MATADOR,RHOSCOLYN,IMPARTIALITY with STRNGTH OF SPIRIT drifting out for odds wise but i think i could see why that was it did beat IMPARTIALITY here to but is a lot worse of at weights and i think ground will suit other one better so thats why its out. Not unless massive gamble always need to note them from horses in list, now i dont think these are lists they keep myself i think a lot of time he meant list for race.
So we have three now i think EL MATADOR falls short of other two when you look at only really soft run was maiden race different from this yes run well last time on all weather but this is not that.
That left me with two the old boy against the younger horse we know RHOSCOLYN has the ability but been running over 7fur and loves goodwood but i noticed run it for first time here last of 5 on wrong ground thought maybe was just a little tester for track will love ground and i think this might be the one with the danger being IMPARITIALITY will be staying on over this distance but RHOSCOLYN will get first run on it and is running well just now to.

Moving on to the 4 04 didn't need to say what system i followed now same way got it down on ability and consistency to shorten list and had 4 left but betting at this time of night was more awkward in one way and good in other as one was clear in the odds betting and other three where all filtering around the 5th fav which makes it hard to see what's in or out so do you count them in or out so what conclusion i came to was i might look at them out side the top 5 not to bet them but they might make it a no bet race.
Now i am not going to go down the route tomorrow to say no bet race i will say a bit about that at end but the four horses left here where FRANCISCOS PIECE, COPPER KNIGHT, TEMPLE OF ATHENA, TOP WARRIOR. so here we have some collateral form this i believe is the hard work part COPPER KNIGHT beat TEMPLE OF ATHENA last time out and at same weights had the beating of it now again that was chester though so advantage i actually had it as my nap then to but not today round here odd are going to have to give us clue and big one, So now TOP WARRIOR at first you could say no but the run when won at newbury on soft gives it live chance in this and was in top 5 betting when i studied race so i was making it the danger looking at it drift a little same as other two now in market i think could go well but that little market move just strengthened my believe that i thought FRANCISCOS PIECE was the horse to take out this race beat or finished in front of TEMPLE OF ATHENA behind trilby worse of but distance was to good and it also run really well last time to and won decent race on heavy at chantilly and looks the horse here to win this.
So talking about bets or not i have worked out well i had three in first race to decide and four in last race but three on verge of odds so when i worked out the good thing i think vdw was talking about i think you might get one a year i mean solid unbeatable one, maybe more over jumps hopefully then you go down to good bets, and then bets worth a go, then iffy bets, then no bets. So you could dutch them level stakes or money back and just more on fancied one.
What i would say on first try is FRANCISCOS PIECE and RHOSCOYLN in that order are i would place these as worth ago bets but stick out like sore thumb would need be easier races than these.
 
"It would be great if the Life was on there too."

It certainly would, Tufnel Tufnel.

Thanks for the other info about what is available on the online archive. It seems that with regard to ARs, if I need to check one the Form Books are probably the better way if I have them. (My question arose because I had a query about an AR in one of VDW's Desert Orchid examples. Fortunately for those I have all the necessary Form Books so was able to check and correct, but that wouldn't be the case with a similar query in one of his earliest examples.)
 
Good races for a late September Monday, gerry gerry, though it is the 4.04 that interests me, along with the 4.38 and 8.00 at Wolverhampton.

Probably surprisingly to some, because he won a decent race lto, Copper Knight is not in my view a VDW "form" horse, though of course the highest ability-rated horse in the field.

Your selection, Francisco's Piece is second on ability, courtesy of a French race, and (skin of teeth) both a consistent horse and a VDW "form" horse, but was impeded lto and might well have been a really solid consistent "form" horse had he had a clear run. But clear run or not, he has a major problem for a class dropping horse, VDW-wise, lack of key horse support in respect of that run. That, and that there are three other consistent "form" horses in opposition, mean for me he is not a horse VDW would have backed.

Presumably a lot of people think City Captain will benefit from the drop to 5f. Despite being one of the consistent "form" horses, the current around 15/8 to 2/1 strikes me as very short for a horse trying this trip for the first time, who will certainly need to put in his best performance yet by some way in order to win (on my ratings).

Interesting race, but not one I want to bet on. Good luck with yours.
 
I have changed this morning the way i weighted these races after a night sleeping on it a lot the first race i am happy with but the second race after adjusting ratings in how i place the importance on ability and consistency which you can say is related to class and form CITY CAPTAIN does come in to the second race on pure consistency but does it change the top horse in each race no i hope not and thats all .
 
I don't want to clog up the thread with random posts but thanks to all those who offered suggestions... I daresay I shall be back in a couple of weeks with VDW solved. 😄😄
 
Some class/form horses who are interesting, but not carrying the full ticket today imv.

Ham 3:29 Rhoscolyn C/F, Strength Of Spirit 2nd C/F, Hot Cash 3rd C/F
Ham 4:09 Francisco's Piece C/F, Jordan Electronics 2nd C/F, Change Of Mind 3rd C/F, City Captain 4th C/F
N Abb 3:00 Gore Point C/F, Juggernaught 2nd C/F, Minella Jury 3rd C/F
Bri 3:15 Danehill Star and Gone Rogue JT C/F, Newfangled 3rd C/F, On The Inlet 4th C/F

I'll be watching with interest as to how they get on.

My suspicions are that Gore Point and Gone Rogue may be the more likely of the top on C/Fs but no money going down today.

Good luck to anyone having a go though today.
 
Leodis said:
Tufnel Tufnel ,

Saturday, 03 October 2026 - 14:50
Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap (1m)
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Frankie's Dream:
scrubbed today and entered in an apprentice handicap (8lbs easier) and probably a better distance.

Thursday, 08 October 2026
17:00 Sth 7f ap-hcp aw
 
The class/form question for me revolves around if it really means the form horse with the highest class/ability rating or if it means the form horse with the best recent form on the basis of class of race and opposition involved in that race.

Or it could mean both. The form horse with he highest ability rating that also has the best recent form judged on class of race and class of those in that race?

VDW said to bet against the class/form horse pushes the odds away from you. But plenty of form horses with the highest ability rating in a race don't win.

Was Beacon Light really a Non Form horse or just a horse who showed a downturn in form last time against a horse who had a lower AR than himself but a higher one than both Prominent King or Mr Kildare and also Drumgora, the horse who beat PK last time out.

I have an overview sheet of the Erin now much like my own sheets for today's racing, but I can't post it due to the image posting bug that still exists. It's too much work to recreate again in a post using text etc.
 
"VDW said to bet against the class/form horse pushes the odds away from you. But plenty of form horses with the highest ability rating in a race don't win."

If you had made the comparison between VDW's statement and the observation that plenty of horses with the highest ability ratings in their fields don't win, you would be on rock-solid ground, Tufnel Tufnel. It is not so easy when it comes to adding qualifications, of which for VDW there were three: consistent "form", capability and probability.

If VDW had followed the advice he gave those "unable to balance the factors" to stick to horses top on ability in their races, of the eighty or so mainstream selections he gave, about 25% qualified. If we assume that that percentage, broadly speaking, applied across his bets, and it applied to winners and losers equally, on the lower level of the strike rate he claimed (though never proved) it would mean that in a hundred bets 25 would be top-rated on ability and about 15% of them, ie four, would lose.

The numbers would be larger for horses that, while top in their races on ability, lacked one or more of what seem to have been for VDW the other three essentials for a bet. Your view that plenty of top ability-rated horses who are also form horses lose is thus surely correct, even if by form one meant something as tightly bounded as the rating method I believe VDW used when referring to "form" horses.
 
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JennyK said:
"VDW said to bet against the class/form horse pushes the odds away from you. But plenty of form horses with the highest ability rating in a race don't win."

If you had made the comparison between VDW's statement and the observation that plenty of horses with the highest ability ratings in their fields don't win, you would be on rock-solid ground, Tufnel Tufnel. It is not so easy when it comes to adding qualifications, of which for VDW there were three: consistent "form", capability and probability.

If VDW had followed the advice he gave those "unable to balance the factors" to stick to horses top on ability in their races, of the eighty or so mainstream selections he gave, about 25% qualified. If we assume that that percentage, broadly speaking, applied across his bets, and it applied to winners and losers equally, on the lower level of the strike rate he claimed (though never proved) it would mean that in a hundred bets 25 would be top-rated on ability and about 15% of them, ie four, would lose.

The numbers would be larger for horses that, while top in their races on ability, lacked one or more of what seem to have been for VDW the other three essentials for a bet. Your view that plenty of top ability-rated horses who are also form horses lose is thus surely correct, even if by form one meant something as tightly bounded as the rating method I believe VDW used when referring to "form" horses.
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The day he referred to class/form horses and 2nd on class/form at Kempton when Beau Ranger was “the last bet Mr Spiers should have been on” is the classification of class/form horse I’m using. Top on AR alone in a field is as we know a poor strike rate especially in handicap races.

One of those Kempton class/form horses was later revealed to be inconsistent by VDW and just one reason he said he left it.

This clearly demonstrates, as you discovered a few months back, that there is a difference between a class/form horse and a class/consistent form horse.

And in handicaps especially that difference plus the capability and probability factors seems to make a bigger impact on who the selection should be. Which to my mind seems to contradict the idea that to go against the class/form horse pushes the odds away from us.

Perhaps if VDW had clarified when it was right to go against the class/form horse or the 2nd or 3rd class/form horse then things would have been much clearer. But I guess that all comes under the balancing factors umbrella.

Trying to establish a horse such as Love From Verona as having the best form in the race seems an impossibility using class and form of the horses beaten in its last race a class 10 handicap. But through capability failures of higher AR form horses and weight movements the balance can be seen to swing its way.

Beau Ranger, like Love From Verona was carrying a low weight in a handicap. But Beau Ranger had the highest AR of the form horses too so presumably was a more confident bet for VDW?

Yesterday I backed a clear class/form horse in a handicap who was also a consistent form horse receiving 10 lbs from the other two runners. It finished a reasonably close 2nd but wasn’t good enough on the day. The one possible negative I noticed before the race was the horse had run left handed in all bar 2 of his previous races both at Ascot where he didn’t win or go close. Should that have prevented him from winning or being a wager for me yesterday? Or was he just one of those 15% that fail to capitalise on the day?
 
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