Yes that is true. But it is noticeable that many of VDWs handicap examples had shown in their last 3 runs to be either giving significant weight to others when not placing 1st and generally carrying less weight in the target race to boot.
Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
This idea might hold,some water . VDW suggested that O.der Horses. Ou.d be added to the List . The 80 minimum Speed fig was the old Split Second which went from 0-100
One idea is to use RPR and for myself Timeform Speed Figures
The 2-15 Sandown on Saturday eats the minimum 8f Criteria
The winner achieved a RPR of 114 which = listed class and it was a class 2 handicap .
The Timeform Speed Figures was 110 and the highest achieved in the history of the race
I have run the race through my Benchmark Algorithm for Tracker additions
Alcarath is the natural structural bench for this Sandown Class 2 middle-distance handicap, acting as the clean mathematical anchor of the race.
In a race decisively won by Roger Varian’s highly progressive 3-year-old Kokbastau—who completed a hat-trick under Ray Dawson, making light of a 14 lb higher mark despite being repeatedly denied a run from 2f out until squeezing through inside the final 110 yards to post an outstanding 114 TFR / 104+ Fig—the race was run on Good to Soft ground (Time Index 5.9/10, -0.36s vs standard). Alcarath tracked the pace prominently after an 11-week layoff, hit the front inside the final furlong, and was only narrowly denied by a head in the closing strides. Because his BHA Performance Figure came out at 92 against an official mark of 90, the handicapper nudged him up 2 lbs to 92. He represents the unyielding baseline of a consistent, 92-rated middle-distance handicapper running to his maximum.
By anchoring the race to Alcarath and mapping the early energy expenditure, we expose the hidden yardage absorbed by the chasing pack.
Tactical Front-End Mapping & Hidden Yardage
(Sandown 1m 1f 209y = ~8,190 ft | F3 Distance = 1,980 ft. Drag penalty: 2.5 lbs / 0.167s per length).- The Zero-Line: My Love Is King and Alcarath disputed the early fractions, clocking an opening furlong of 14.43s and 14.49s (+0.00s vs standard).
- Positional Penalties:Because the early pace was cleanly struck with minimal initial resistance, horses racing away from the front group faced standard tracking friction.
- Alcarath (2nd): Clocked 14.49s early (+0.06s). Forfeited 0.36 lengths = +0.9 lbs.
- My Love Is King (5th): Clocked 14.43s early (+0.00s). Forfeited 0.0 lengths = +0.0 lbs.
- Kokbastau (1st): Clocked 14.71s early (+0.28s). Forfeited 1.68 lengths = +4.2 lbs.
- Stem (3rd): Clocked 14.50s early (+0.07s). Forfeited 0.42 lengths = +1.1 lbs.
Master Race Summary & Brohamer Velocity Profile
| Horse | TFR | Tfig | RPR | BHA (Off/Perf/New) | Gemini Mark | PR% (FSP) | EP (fps) | F3 (fps) | True Adv | Timeform Race Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kokbastau | 114+ | 110 | 114 | 102 / 106 / 106 | 106.8 | 101.25% | 52.32 | 56.45 | -11.2 lbs | In touch with leaders on outer, going okay but repeatedly short of room from 2f out, squeezed through inside final 110yds, soon ridden, ran on well and led final strides, did well in the circumstances. |
 Alcarath | 103 | 98 | 99 | 90 / 92 / 92 | 93.1 | 100.50% | 52.10 | 55.82 | -2.9 lbs | Prominent, ridden over 1f out, led narrowly inside final 110yds, kept on but headed final strides. |
| Stem | 100 | 96 | 96 | 89 / 89 / 89 | 90.0 | 100.00% | 52.05 | 55.60 | -2.1 lbs | Pressed leader, no extra towards finish. |
| Gonna Fly | 103 | 99 | 99 | 93 / 93 / 93 | 93.5 | 100.26% | 51.75 | 55.95 | -1.5 lbs | Took keen hold, prominent, no extra inside final 110yds. |
| My Love Is King | 105 | 101 | 101 | 96 / 96 / 96 | 96.0 | 99.66% | 52.35 | 55.40 | 0.0 lbs | Led narrowly, headed inside final 110yds, soon no extra. |
Structural Takeaways
- Kokbastau’s Pattern Potential: Roger Varian’s 3-year-old overcame severe traffic congestion from 2f out, absorbing +4.2 lbs of early tracking drag before squeezing through a narrow gap to post an elite 114 TFR. The handicapper raised him 4 lbs to an OR of 106, but his closing sectionals and visual impression confirm he is a pattern performer in the making.
- Alcarath as the Solid Barometer: Running to his exact 92 rating after an 11-week break, Alcarath proved his consistency in deep Class 2 company. His clean trip and minimal True Advantage penalty (-2.9 lbs) highlight him as an honest benchmark who will continue to give a stellar account whenever placed in similar middle-distance handicaps.
The True Advantage metric measures the physical debt a horse had to overcome during the race compared to the baseline or winning standard. Specifically, it represents the extra structural drag (expressed in pounds) that the horse absorbed due to tactical factors—such as racing wide, tracking a slow early pace, fighting for racing room, or recovering from traffic trouble and bad starts.
Because it is calculated as a penalty or a debt that the horse successfully carried on top of their standard performance, it appears as a negative number (e.g., −5.0 lbs or −12.0 lbs). Think of it as handicapping the horse against themselves: they performed so strongly that they effectively carried several extra pounds of invisible weight and still ran to that high figure.
Is it a Good Indicator of Being Well In Against the BHA Rating?
Yes, it is one of the most powerful indicators available for identifying horses that are well-handicapped (or "well-in") relative to their revised BHA rating.
Here is why a negative True Advantage signals a major betting edge:
- Exposing Unseen Effort: When a horse finishes close or wins despite absorbing heavy positional drag (e.g., losing 5 to 15 lengths worth of energy early or getting stopped in traffic), their official BHA Performance Figure only measures where they finished, not how hard they had to work to get there.
- Blinding the Handicapper: The BHA handicapper relies heavily on raw finishing positions and visible margins. If a horse finishes 3rd or 4th because they got trapped behind a wall of horses or burned excessive energy overcoming a terrible draw, the handicapper will often leave their rating static—or even drop them a pound or two.
- The Hidden Handicap Edge: A large negative True Advantage means the horse's actual mechanical engine is operating at a much higher grade than the official rating suggests. When the handicapper leaves their BHA mark untouched (or drops them), that hidden speed rating remains masked from the public eye.
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JennyK
Gelding
With VDW,
T
Tufnel, I've realised how right Lee was when he said it was a matter of level of understanding - things that meant nothing to him when he first started taking an interest meant more the more he understood and in turn led to further understanding.
With that in view, this evening I happened across a paragraph in "Introduction to VDW Update" in Tony Peach's "Betting The VDW Way". I must have read it several times over the last few years without seeing its importance. It is paragraph 6 on page 4. The last sentence means so much more because of the work I've done over the last few days.
With that in view, this evening I happened across a paragraph in "Introduction to VDW Update" in Tony Peach's "Betting The VDW Way". I must have read it several times over the last few years without seeing its importance. It is paragraph 6 on page 4. The last sentence means so much more because of the work I've done over the last few days.
I see what you mean.
And I'd say the first sentence of the next paragraph takes on a new meaning also. I thought that was inferring sticking to good races rather than making a distinction between consistent horses and consistent form.
Good work.
