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Class/form horses

It is as likely as any explanation I have at the moment, T Tufnel, but it still leaves the apparent facts that Tintagel was a "form" horse on, I think, almost any conceivable way of defining such, and much higher in the main ability rating.

If I found a horse like Connaught Bridge, who seemed in isolation a good bet, BUT there was a much higher ability-rated "form" horse in the field whom I could not exclude on the kind of grounds on which VDW excluded Jim Thorpe, my thoughts would be turning to a book, or maybe a bet on the horse like CB but covering the stake with a small bet on the Tintagel equivalent. We know VDW favoured books in the right situation, but he seemed to mention it when such a situation arose, eg with the 1986 King George VI. Maybe he did in the CB/T case without mentioning it, but for me it leaves a lack of clarity about how I see the example.

I can't find anything Guest or Lee wrote about the race, which might have helped.

At least today there are some better sprint handicaps.
 
Whilst reading through the old Gummy archives I noted some Lee and Guest posts I'd not seen before. Around mid 2002 (difficult to tell as there are no message posts date on the archive) Guest mentioned this "VDW made comment on this subject not so long ago in RFU. There has to be a reason why a horse was 10/1 last time and is now 2/1 favourite."

Does anyone know if that is quoting a VDW letter and if so does anyone have a scan or screenshot of it? Not so long ago could mean a few years or months. I'm just not aware of VDW having anything printed in the Raceform Update beyond the 90s.
 
JennyK said:
It is as likely as any explanation I have at the moment, T Tufnel, but it still leaves the apparent facts that Tintagel was a "form" horse on, I think, almost any conceivable way of defining such, and much higher in the main ability rating.

If I found a horse like Connaught Bridge, who seemed in isolation a good bet, BUT there was a much higher ability-rated "form" horse in the field whom I could not exclude on the kind of grounds on which VDW excluded Jim Thorpe, my thoughts would be turning to a book, or maybe a bet on the horse like CB but covering the stake with a small bet on the Tintagel equivalent. We know VDW favoured books in the right situation, but he seemed to mention it when such a situation arose, eg with the 1986 King George VI. Maybe he did in the CB/T case without mentioning it, but for me it leaves a lack of clarity about how I see the example.

I can't find anything Guest or Lee wrote about the race, which might have helped.

At least today there are some better sprint handicaps.
Click to expand...
Yes I agree that he always seemed explicit when a book was involved. And Connaught Bridge was mentioned under the umbrella of "good things".

I also looked on the Gummy archive. I have to say that going from the beginning of that massive VDW thread I'm not sure why Chesham thinks Guest didn't give selections up front or that if they did none of them won. Looked like some successes and some failures. It is a large thread though so maybe he didn't read it all. There is a lot of twaddle talk on there to overlook and big gaps between useful chat.
 
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Thirsk 4:00 I've gone for a 4 horse book in this 19 runner class 3 sprint handicap.
Veblen Good, Starmade, Durham Castle and Topwarrior.

I think it may be significant that the last time Veblen Good won earlier this season was under a claiming jockey. The horse travels well and has made a bold show in several decent sprints including the 52k York race that has produced so many winners in way better races than this. Veblen G was 4th and just about every horse in the first 5 has either won or run close next time. Stablemate Yes I'm Mali was just behind him at York and also same at Pontefract. Tudhope switches to that one today.

Veblen Good one of those beaten fav types too.
The other 3 have all had rests after being probably over faced in better races before that.

Obviously I'm aware if Tudhope comes and does one of my four he'll be completely off my Christmas card list.
 
I'm also making a 4 horse book in the 4:30 14 runner class 2 handicap over 7f.
From the top Invictus Gold, Northern Express, Bobby Bennu and Superposition.

Invictus Gold and Bobby Bennu are the 2 I think have the best prospects with Superposition and Northern Express well worth including too.
It's about a 5/4 book, but hoping to play it safe by including what I see as the main probables.
 
Two horses I think look bets at Sandown today.

Innichen in the 2:25 Nursery, who is dropping in class quickly with a very good 2nd LTO performance at Goodwood. I think Jack Channon had 2 good chances there today but they've pulled Galyx out in the last. Innichen will hopefully send them home happy.

I also think Drymee in the 4:10 took on the better Godolphin horse last time out when Drymee was 100/30 against a horse I backed to win in Man Of Vision, who'd been dropped a long way in class.

I respect the Ed Walker filly but she only narrowly held off Ascending Star having beat that one more easily before, when they were both blitzed by Desert Shadow.

I think Drymee is the one to be on today.
 
Chesham said:
Meanwhile in the Year 2026

An example of how I add horses to My Tracker. The BHA Release their Revised Ractings on Tuesdays . South Shore has two entries. Class 4 AND CLASS 5. Note the weight differences in each of those races.

Even with a horse potentially well the race chosen still need to be evaluated and not an automatic bet

The Dual-Metric Master Engine is calibrated, and the Windsor telemetry exposes exactly how this 5f Apprentice Handicap collapsed into an algorithmic goldmine.

This is a textbook grid compression trap. In a race that generated a massive 99.2 RSSF, the BHA handicapper completely panicked, likely dismissing the extreme speed as a fluke due to the apprentice riders. Instead of raising the front-runners to match the aerodynamic reality of the race, they heavily under-penalized the entire finishing frame.

Tactical Front-End Mapping & Hidden Yardage​

The race was run at a very demanding 7.7/10 Time Index.

  • The Zero-Line: Too Darn Good went off far too hard, establishing the zero-line with a blazing 13.74s early fraction before completely folding.
  • The Positional Penalty:Because the pace was so hot, the closers were severely penalized by the aerodynamic drag required to make up ground. (Calculated at 2.5 lbs per length on a 5f scale / 0.167s = 1 length).
    • Thornaby Pearl (1st): Clocked 14.41s early (+0.67s). Forfeited 4.01 lengths = +10.0 lbs.
    • Trust Sergei (4th): Clocked 14.49s early (+0.75s). Forfeited 4.49 lengths = +11.2 lbs.
    • South Shore (2nd) & Sunlit Sea (3rd): Both clocked 14.20s (+0.46s). Forfeited 2.75 lengths = +6.9 lbs.
By mapping these positional penalties against the official BHA Performance Figures (and the mark Ran Off for the winner), we can calculate the Gemini Handicap Mark and expose the massive True Advantages the BHA left on the table.
When analyzing a pace collapse of this magnitude, the early energy expenditure (% Early) and Final Fraction (F3) velocities are the exact metrics that prove why the closers absorbed so much positional yardage.

Here is the fully loaded, complete Master Race Summary for Windsor Race 1, seamlessly integrating the Brohamer Velocity Profile, the Timeform Race Comments, and all classification metrics.

Master Race Summary & Brohamer Velocity Profile​

HorseTFRTfigRPRBHA (Off/Perf/New)Gemini MarkPR% (FSP)EP (fps)Turn-Time (fps)F3 (fps)% EarlyTrue AdvTimeform Race Comments
🔵 Thornaby Pearl77767668 / 72 / 7278.099.64%53.2257.6559.2647.31%+6.0 lbsContinued his productive campaign as he wasted no time and resumed winning ways, suited by a change of tactics given the way that the race panned out; raced off the pace, headway when switched over 1f out, stayed on to lead close home; has been in excellent heart and would escape a penalty for this success if turned out again quickly.
🔴 South Shore79787770 / 73 / 7379.998.58%53.9457.4058.6347.91%+6.9 lbsWith the winner and third from last time both scoring since, had won both of his previous starts at Windsor and produced a good effort in defeat; in touch, effort towards outer over 2f out, led over 1f out before hanging left, headed close home; not long with present stable and will continue to give a good account.
Click to expand...
IMG_0796.jpeg
 
"Around mid 2002 (difficult to tell as there are no message posts date on the archive) Guest mentioned this "VDW made comment on this subject not so long ago in RFU. There has to be a reason why a horse was 10/1 last time and is now 2/1 favourite ... I'm just not aware of VDW having anything printed in the Raceform Update beyond the 90s.."

In the Contents page of "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune", published 1995, T Tufnel, Tony Peach wrote that it contained "The six remaining articles Che Van Der Wheil wrote for the Sporting Chronicle and Raceform Handicap Book from 1981 to 1986", and I've assumed that by remaining" he meant those not published in "The The Golden Years ...". Obviously there are some later VDW writings - the short piece in one of Jock Bingham's bookets, "Systematic Betting", material from the "Make Racing Pay" series and bits and pieces in Tony Peach's "Racing In My System", Systems In My Racing" and "The Silver Lining", but I am not aware of anything by VDW published in the Handicap Book or Racing Update later than 1986.

I wonder if Guest was referring to a letter by GR, Lincs, and asssumed that was another pseudonym for Gordon Hall? Apart from the letter reproduced on this forum re GR, Lincs's selections being possibly by "VDW", I've seen nothing else from GR, Lincs, but I think it more probable that he was writing to RU at a time when Guest, in or around 2002, could reasonably have referred to as "not long ago".

Good luck with the 4.00 Thirsk. Yet another race too tricky for me. I have Yes I'm Mali as the VDW class/form horse, but as a class dropper with poor key horse support, of no betting interest to me. Anyasi, a highly consistent "form" horse running in a handicap for the first time wouldn't have to be very good to win this, but I can't judge on non-handicap form and 9.11 is a bit of a steadier for a 3yo in this company.
 
Tufnel said:
Whilst reading through the old Gummy archives I noted some Lee and Guest posts I'd not seen before. Around mid 2002 (difficult to tell as there are no message posts date on the archive) Guest mentioned this "VDW made comment on this subject not so long ago in RFU. There has to be a reason why a horse was 10/1 last time and is now 2/1 favourite."

Does anyone know if that is quoting a VDW letter and if so does anyone have a scan or screenshot of it? Not so long ago could mean a few years or months. I'm just not aware of VDW having anything printed in the Raceform Update beyond the 90s.
Click to expand...

Will check some sports forum pages i have in the archive lol
 
Chesham said:
View attachment 170888
Click to expand...
Well done Chesham Chesham
clap.gif
It looks like neither of us can stay away for long! :D


Tufnel said:
Good call. I managed to back 2 of the top weights but not the winner. Bloody Qatar form just confuses the issue. We only had 1 run here to go on.
Click to expand...
>>> If in doubt, blow the race out. <<<


Tufnel said:
Whilst reading through the old Gummy archives I noted some Lee and Guest posts I'd not seen before. Around mid 2002 (difficult to tell as there are no message posts date on the archive) Guest mentioned this "VDW made comment on this subject not so long ago in RFU. There has to be a reason why a horse was 10/1 last time and is now 2/1 favourite."
Click to expand...
It is a bit cumbersome, but if you really need the date/time of a post, right-click > View page source; the source code should open in a new tab. Lots of gobbledy-gook for you to overlook, but if you manage to find the post you are after on that source page, you can see the post date and time.

For example, page 1 of VDW (CONTINUED), the very first post by Swish:

See: VDW (CONTINUED) - Topic Powered by Groupee Community

Right-click> View page source.

Locate his post amongst the code.

Just above it you will see: <noscript>October 23, 2001 07:17 PM</noscript>

I could be wrong, as so often is the case, but I believe that is probably the date and time of Swish's post.

Hope that helps. 🤞

***

Unless I have anything worthwhile to say, I'll let you carry on at your convenience.

CarryOnatyourConvenience.poster.jpg
By Peter Rogers/ Rank Organisation - This image was retrieved from the internet
 
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Thanks BC BC

Working from a list of horses who have hidden Handicap Marks compared to the BHA Ratings are what Trainer aim for. you have a horse dropped in class today . After earning a hidden mark in a Median 67, was then pushed up in Median class 72Today back to median class 67 amd 6 lb well in compared to the BHA Rati…

API == Average Winning Prize Money Index (Think of it as an ability rating) DoD is. Class movement from LTO . -1.5 = 3.3 lbs weaker than last run


Good Earth +3 = 6.6 Lbs Stronger race than LTO


Final Master Summary: Sandown 3:00pm (5f 10y)​

HorseTFRCorrected Tfig (L3)APIDoDBrohamer (%E)True Tissue
Good Earth 🔴8166, 70, 91.3+3.049.8%4.35
South Shore7956, 78, 751.3-1.552.4%3.50
Hint Of Humour76+70, 33, 692.150.1%10.50D

Thats me out of here, Just wanted to follow up from my original Benchmark Post on Tuesday

Good luck to the VDW Chaps. Remember that the Trainer has to fool the BHA handicapper, if his horse stands any chance of winning in Handicaps.
 
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T Tufnel

I won't be able to add comments below the box, so I'll add them in a second post.

Age97ARFormKH formCheck rating
We Never Stop5515238ny
Eye Of Dubai5515184nn
Yes Im Mali4126164yn
Manila Scouse7515152nn
Topwarrior425883nn
Lord Roxby451579yn
Jordan Electrics1010377nn
Durham Castle510869yn
Veblen Good412661nn
Woodstock612955yn
Anyasi35454y*
Novello Lad551549ny
Big Cyril49946nn
Starmade351545nn
Kats Bob812944nn
Art Lover37737yy
Deep Havana53737n*
County Carlow3570n*
 
BC said:
Well done Chesham Chesham
clap.gif
It looks like neither of us can stay away for long! :D



>>> If in doubt, blow the race out. <<<



It is a bit cumbersome, but if you really need the date/time of a post, right-click > View page source; the source code should open in a new tab. Lots of gobbledy-gook for you to overlook, but if you manage to find the post you are after on that source page, you can see the post date and time.

For example, page 1 of VDW (CONTINUED), the very first post by Swish:

See: VDW (CONTINUED) - Topic Powered by Groupee Community

Right-click> View page source.

Locate his post amongst the code.

Just above it you will see: <noscript>October 23, 2001 07:17 PM</noscript>

I could be wrong, as so often is the case, but I believe that is probably the date and time of Swish's post.

(My slight doubt is that it says he registered in Sept 2001 and has 3000+ posts. But later posts do seem to bear out the timestamp.)

Hope that helps. 🤞

***

Unless I have anything worthwhile to say, I'll let you carry on at your convenience.

View attachment 170892
By Peter Rogers/ Rank Organisation - This image was retrieved from the internet
Click to expand...
Undoubtedly the best Carry On of all. Apparently the budgie knew the missing link.
 
Re Connaught Bridge example. I did a check to see if Cecil had used the Monkgate Stakes as a route before for any of his horses, never mid a Group 2 filly. He hadn't. Not even a runner in that race before.

He had of course won the Nassau before in 75 and 76 with the same horse Roussalka at 3 and 4 years. But that horse won 2 Group 3s at 2 years old namely the Cherry Hinton and Princess Margaret Stakes, so was considerably higher up the European Free Handicap than Connaught Bridge was at 2.

So apart from CB being one of the 3 most consistent from the first 5 in the forecast (she was 3rd in the forecast) I can't fathom how she was a "good thing" in VDW's view with at least one much higher rated form horse in the race given that VDW said he left numerous probable winners on account of higher form horses in the race or "reaching a bit high", etc. The horse was also unproven at the longer distance too, though granted just a lightly raced 3 year old who hadn't attempted it yet.

I just don't know. Nobody at the time seemed to take this up on the pages of the SCHB or if they did Peach didn't bring those letters to the readership's attention. All 3 of his "good things" that Saturday afternoon had question marks against them when applied to exposed form or in relation to the majority of the examples VDW had given at that stage. It's amazing nobody asked questions at the time.

I haven't seen any handicap marks for the race at the time, just Daily newspaper form ratings. I can't imagine her handicap mark would have been within 7 lbs of Tintagel before the race or some of the other contenders who'd run in better races.

I guess we will never know VDW's answer.

But I suspect it's filed under the heading "Unexplained". Because whilst I don't doubt he may have backed that horse and the others on the day in question, the way it was found was probably not via class/form qualification. Lots of punters would have supported it on the visuals at York plus Mercer and Cecil angle. It was a forecast 9/2 shot and won at 5/1. So not unexpected by the markets, but the data along VDW's guidelines simply shows a conflict. Nobody in my experience has found a solid solution to how it was found using VDW basics.
 
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