No she carried 8-8 at York. The winner of that race carried 9-12. Which given the weight advantage Connaught Bridge had in that York race actually lessens the achievement.
Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
BC
Colt
gerry The problem is, just because one person is successful doing something in a particular way, unless you know precisely everything they are doing, you won't be able to replicate their results.This may be why we may not ever get a unified handle on VDW's method, for example.
MySportsAI has clearly got a very good understanding of the overall statistics of horseracing. And if you play the way he plays, à la Bentner, and focus on those statistics, you'll hopefully move into a position where you discover how to make those statistics work in your favour.Perhaps even become a billionaire like Bill Bentner.
If you focus on 5f-6f sprint handicaps, you'll hopefully discover what works.
If you focus on Class 2 big-field handicaps, you'll hopefully discover what works.
If you focus on VDW methodology, you'll hopefully discover what works.
If you focus on speed figures, you'll hopefully discover what works.
Etc.
The key word, of course, is focus.
Decide what you want to do. Then focus.
You have to decide and stop looking for the shiny thing over there. It's tough to do. I found it almost impossible. But that's me. Hopefully, you're made of sterner stuff. If there is a thread on Temperament, that ought to be where any of us start this journey. The reality is, sadly, we don't even know what it means until it's too late.
***
By the way, the word "decide" is worth a tiny bit of thought.
You decide to have an apple. So you open the fridge door, see the oranges, and change your mind. That's not what I'm talking about.
I'm talking about the kind of "decide" that comes when you've given a lot of careful deliberation and research into the options before you. You make a decision. At this point, you don't change your mind until you have proven to yourself that you were mistaken.
Easier said than done.
***
In sum: decide, then focus.
Nellsman
Colt
Park Express recorded a speed figure of 80 as a 2yo over 7F at Leopardstown the previous season. In fact I think it was the top 2yo performance that season.
Chesham
Sire
I am glad that you figured it out. Quite a few others did at the time . I will just be posting daily like I always do on the Inner Sanctum Blog .Could it be as simple as this: that after the race was run, the latter realised their earlier mistake? After all, we're all really good at seeing where we went wrong after the race.
And anyway, it was eighteen years ago. Blimey, I've made my share of message-board faux pas in the last twenty-five years. One I recall vividly in an exchange on Racing Systems with someone called Saint Andy. I still cringe at the memory. Luckily for me, Saint Andy was more forgiving. Perhaps that's why he was a Saint. (In actuality, he was a Southampton supporter.)
Chesham We're all 18 years closer to the grave. Let it go, man.
For now I will not be on the IS or OS parts of the Forum.
JennyK
Gelding
NellsmanIndeed she did. And Conti Sante had posted good numbers as both a 2yo and 3yo, the latter easily good enough for the list VDW showed in his "Listing Speed Figures" piece in "The Ultimaye Wheil had he made a similar list in 1978. Bold Shot wasn't exactly a slouch, either.
BCFocus, in my view a sensible approach, but the choice of focus needs a reason. Mine, for sprint handicaps, is an obvious one - no other type of horse on average runs as often. More runs = more form = more scope to understand what a horse can and can't do, favoured or adverse conditions, etc
The 4:15 at Catterick on the face of it is the sort of handicap sprint I find it easy to tie myself up in knots with.
There are several older horses in here who have shown one or more of their top 3 speed figures this season. Absent Friends being one such horse who showed his 2nd best figure ever last time out from a mark of 69. He's off 71 today and is due to go up to 75 but has won from more than 71 in 4 races before. But he also has a current in out in out 9191 which worries me.
Fidelius seemed to run very well on turf last time in what was the fastest race on the card at Redcar, but the TS was just 61. And his best speed figures are all on the AW. Clearly he acts in turf too, but has yet to put up a good figure on turf.
Secret Mistral's best speed figure was at Nottingham in June this year and her 3rd best was in July when winning at Chester. She is 6 lbs higher than her last winning mark, but ran 3rd from this mark last time at Chester.
Vince L'Amour is falling down the weights and showed his chance must be near when 2nd recently before upped in class and out of the frame.
But I think the really intriguing runners are the 3 youngsters in the field including 3 year olds Call Margot and Angel Numbers and the 4 year old Novamay. All 3 of these horses already have the speed figures that show their currents marks probably underestimate them.
Call Margot has by far the best form this season when 2nd in much better class at Epsom to Naana's Shadown from a mark of 76. She went up as high as 81 following that run but has run mainly in races well above her ability. She's down to 79 today but is due to go down a further 2 lb so interesting they are running today.
Like wise Angel Numbers who is 110 in the form figures having shown, as suspected last time, that a wide draw at Beverley was a big minus point and although she went off 9/2 co fav she never looked like winning. But the horse she beat previously ran 2nd at Beverley. Ruth Carr hasn't waited long to go back to the track with her. And her speed will be better suited to Catterick.
Novamay is 2nd in the weights and has been running over 6f and they are trying 5f again. She was 2nd over 5.5f last season.
The WFA in this race isn't very generous but that's because we are getting into late season territory now with September on the horizon next week.
I'm going to make a book with the younger horses Call Margot, Angel Numbers and Novamay. Mainly because the first 2 horses fit into the sort of bets I like to find, horses who appear to have shown below par efforts but are in a race they should be capable of winning.
But also, there should be a decent pace in this race and on the speed figures, these younger horses are on a par with their older more experienced and exposed rivals today.
At Wolverhampton 3:30 I'm backing Boilermaker.
Newbury 7:00 Lion Of Mali and in the 7:30 Edwin Hubble (much as it pains to not be with Empirical again)
There are several older horses in here who have shown one or more of their top 3 speed figures this season. Absent Friends being one such horse who showed his 2nd best figure ever last time out from a mark of 69. He's off 71 today and is due to go up to 75 but has won from more than 71 in 4 races before. But he also has a current in out in out 9191 which worries me.
Fidelius seemed to run very well on turf last time in what was the fastest race on the card at Redcar, but the TS was just 61. And his best speed figures are all on the AW. Clearly he acts in turf too, but has yet to put up a good figure on turf.
Secret Mistral's best speed figure was at Nottingham in June this year and her 3rd best was in July when winning at Chester. She is 6 lbs higher than her last winning mark, but ran 3rd from this mark last time at Chester.
Vince L'Amour is falling down the weights and showed his chance must be near when 2nd recently before upped in class and out of the frame.
But I think the really intriguing runners are the 3 youngsters in the field including 3 year olds Call Margot and Angel Numbers and the 4 year old Novamay. All 3 of these horses already have the speed figures that show their currents marks probably underestimate them.
Call Margot has by far the best form this season when 2nd in much better class at Epsom to Naana's Shadown from a mark of 76. She went up as high as 81 following that run but has run mainly in races well above her ability. She's down to 79 today but is due to go down a further 2 lb so interesting they are running today.
Like wise Angel Numbers who is 110 in the form figures having shown, as suspected last time, that a wide draw at Beverley was a big minus point and although she went off 9/2 co fav she never looked like winning. But the horse she beat previously ran 2nd at Beverley. Ruth Carr hasn't waited long to go back to the track with her. And her speed will be better suited to Catterick.
Novamay is 2nd in the weights and has been running over 6f and they are trying 5f again. She was 2nd over 5.5f last season.
The WFA in this race isn't very generous but that's because we are getting into late season territory now with September on the horizon next week.
I'm going to make a book with the younger horses Call Margot, Angel Numbers and Novamay. Mainly because the first 2 horses fit into the sort of bets I like to find, horses who appear to have shown below par efforts but are in a race they should be capable of winning.
But also, there should be a decent pace in this race and on the speed figures, these younger horses are on a par with their older more experienced and exposed rivals today.
At Wolverhampton 3:30 I'm backing Boilermaker.
Newbury 7:00 Lion Of Mali and in the 7:30 Edwin Hubble (much as it pains to not be with Empirical again)
JennyK
Gelding
Good luck with the 4.15,
T
Tufnel, too tricky a race for me, with the usual compressed ability rating ranking of lower class races.
The most interesting aspect for me is whether the switch of stable will make much difference to Fidelius. His first run for the Tinkler stable was promising but only a five-runner.
I see Secret Mistral as the VDW class/form horse. He may have been unlucky not to have been closer lto but lacks the key horse support I look for with a class dropper and this is a much classier race than that he won comfortably two runs ago. Well short of the strength of the <20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed in my view.
The most interesting aspect for me is whether the switch of stable will make much difference to Fidelius. His first run for the Tinkler stable was promising but only a five-runner.
I see Secret Mistral as the VDW class/form horse. He may have been unlucky not to have been closer lto but lacks the key horse support I look for with a class dropper and this is a much classier race than that he won comfortably two runs ago. Well short of the strength of the <20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed in my view.
Thanks. Yes that horse showed pace it hadn’t until today and was beaten by a well backed horse stepping up in trip after being beaten out of sight LTO by Colourband who had been 2nd to Empirical at Ayr.
Edwin Hubble took too long to get racing and it was all over by the time he had made headway.
Still a good day.
Lion Of Mali won well, shame I didn’t take 2/1 in the early market. But I think it’s an interesting profile because the form confirmation was there but the horses beating him carried more weight. I tend to think a horse with a high weight winning can indicate the runner up or placed horses were simply up against a better animal.
Carlisle 3:30 I make Rougue Attraction the class/form horse and she's dropping in class from a race that has produced good subsequent form. The horse she finished alongside at Goodwood went and won easily at York in a 52k handicap and the 4th in that race was the horse RA beat at Carlisle 2 runs back when that horses was fav. Danny Tudhope has a good record for well fancied Bethell runners recently and I think this looks a bet today.
The Burke filly also has form with Machadadorp from a run at Chester over 7f. She then went to Southwell and had a Beckett horse back in 4th who beat Machadadorp in Newmarket handicap next time over 7f. But they've been riding Machadadorp differently since then. So I respect the chances of Town Queen but she's been running in non handicaps so far, where as Rogue Attraction has won a 9k handicap over C&D already and ran well in a 26k all aged handicap at Goodwood on her next start. Dropped to collect today over going up in class.
Rougue Attraction
At Lingfield 2:52 the stand out form horse to me is Kiah. Her last 2 races when 3rd (pretty much 2nd dead heat really) and 2nd were against winning favs including one with previous form and another from the Gosden/Juddmonte pipeline (who has won again next time out).
Her dam has produced much better class winners than this event and on breeding you'd expect she will be running over 10 to 12 furlongs as a 3 year old.
I think she did well to hold 2nd last time at Newmarket when she shy'd right when the winner did, but she straightened up and saw off the challenge of the 3rd horse well. I think the extra furlong will be up her street.
Also Meehan has won 2 of his 4 maiden race entries in the last 2 weeks and Tom Marquand rides for the first time.
Again I respect the Hughes horse who improved for her 2nd run at Kempton but I think they've made the wrong horse fav today.
So I'm backing Kiah.
At Newton Abbot 6:12 the top weight Gore Point has been hitting the winning line first in his last 4 races including 3 at this C&D. The speed figure for his win last weekend was by far his best to date, improving on his previous best at Stratford 4 runs back.
There are several in this race who have some back form that could be good enough, but I think given how Gore Point has been winning and beating in form horses easily and as market or second market leader with big and smaller weights, he looks worth a wager under the 7lb penalty at his favourite course.
Gore Point
Those 3 will do for me today. By which I hope I mean they will work out rather than do my wallet in.
The Burke filly also has form with Machadadorp from a run at Chester over 7f. She then went to Southwell and had a Beckett horse back in 4th who beat Machadadorp in Newmarket handicap next time over 7f. But they've been riding Machadadorp differently since then. So I respect the chances of Town Queen but she's been running in non handicaps so far, where as Rogue Attraction has won a 9k handicap over C&D already and ran well in a 26k all aged handicap at Goodwood on her next start. Dropped to collect today over going up in class.
Rougue Attraction
At Lingfield 2:52 the stand out form horse to me is Kiah. Her last 2 races when 3rd (pretty much 2nd dead heat really) and 2nd were against winning favs including one with previous form and another from the Gosden/Juddmonte pipeline (who has won again next time out).
Her dam has produced much better class winners than this event and on breeding you'd expect she will be running over 10 to 12 furlongs as a 3 year old.
I think she did well to hold 2nd last time at Newmarket when she shy'd right when the winner did, but she straightened up and saw off the challenge of the 3rd horse well. I think the extra furlong will be up her street.
Also Meehan has won 2 of his 4 maiden race entries in the last 2 weeks and Tom Marquand rides for the first time.
Again I respect the Hughes horse who improved for her 2nd run at Kempton but I think they've made the wrong horse fav today.
So I'm backing Kiah.
At Newton Abbot 6:12 the top weight Gore Point has been hitting the winning line first in his last 4 races including 3 at this C&D. The speed figure for his win last weekend was by far his best to date, improving on his previous best at Stratford 4 runs back.
There are several in this race who have some back form that could be good enough, but I think given how Gore Point has been winning and beating in form horses easily and as market or second market leader with big and smaller weights, he looks worth a wager under the 7lb penalty at his favourite course.
Gore Point
Those 3 will do for me today. By which I hope I mean they will work out rather than do my wallet in.
but WHY did he do that?
Over confidence? He'd never ridden the horse before so why he thought he could do that in a sprint race of all things, god only knows.
The horse took it up well over a furlong out over the same C&D when winning before. Could have easily have done the same if he'd let it stride on.
Just an ill judged ride.
The horse took it up well over a furlong out over the same C&D when winning before. Could have easily have done the same if he'd let it stride on.
Just an ill judged ride.