• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Class/form horses

Felicitas is a highly progressive, undefeated 3-year-old chestnut filly with a pedigree heavily geared toward elite middle-distance turf racing. Sired by the European Champion Teofilo out of a Dubawi mare, she possesses a textbook blend of stamina, cardiovascular capacity, and high-cruising turf speed. Having won both her starts to date—including a recent 10-furlong Allowance victory at Sandown—she arrives with an unblemished record and an ascending profile that strongly points toward Pattern-class targets as a 3-year-old.

Sire Profile: Teofilo (IRE)​

Teofilo (by Galileo) was an undefeated Champion Two-Year-Old who has developed into a magnificent source of middle-distance and staying class at stud.

  • Progeny Traits: He is renowned for producing tough, durable, and highly genuine horses that thrive over 1m 2f to 2m+. His standout progeny include global stars like Exultant, Cross Counter, and Without A Fight. He imparts tremendous lung capacity and the signature Galileo will to win.
  • Conditions: His stock are highly effective on turf and generally versatile regarding ground conditions, though they possess the physical scope to handle galloping tracks beautifully.

Female Line (Dam & Broodmare Sire)​

The maternal side of this pedigree provides the perfect injection of miler speed and high-class tactical gears.

  • The Broodmare Sire (Dubawi): One of the greatest stallions of the modern era, Dubawi is equally elite as a broodmare sire. He sharpens up extreme stamina influences, imparting acceleration, early physical maturity, and incredible cardiovascular strength.
  • The Dam (Desert Star): She is a winner over 8.4 furlongs in France and comes from a highly active, high-class family. She is a full sister to the Group 3-placed Listed winner Duneflower (110 Timeform rating), and her dam, Desert Blossom, was Group 2 placed as a juvenile. This is a black-type family that produces tough, group-level fillies.

The Cross/Nick​

Teofilo (Galileo line) x Dubawi (Dubai Millennium line) This is an incredibly potent, high-end "stamina over speed-stamina" genetic blend.

  • The Blend: It layers the grinding, middle-distance class of Teofilo over the explosive tactical gears and robust physique of the Dubawi line.
  • Result: It creates a beautifully balanced middle-distance athlete (indicated by her Dosage Index of 0.88 and Center of Distribution of -0.03, showing a slight leaning toward classic stamina). She has the turn of foot to travel comfortably and the lung capacity to sustain her effort over 10 to 12 furlongs.

Conditions Suitability​

  • Distance: 1m 2f to 1m 4f (10f - 12f). She has just won over just shy of 10 furlongs at Sandown, which looks to be her absolute minimum requirement right now. She will easily stay 1m 4f given the heavy Galileo influence.
  • Ground/Going: Good / Good to Soft Turf. Her recent Sandown win came on Good ground, but the pedigree suggests she will have absolutely no issues handling ease in the ground.
  • Track Type: Galloping tracks. Sandown's stiff, galloping nature with an uphill finish suited her perfectly. She will continue to thrive on big, sweeping tracks.

Form & RaceIQ Tracker​

Because specific RaceIQ PR% and CCR data for her recent Sandown win was not provided, I have locked in the pre-approved summary chart structure below. Her unblemished record currently stands at 2-for-2.

Recent Form Summary Chart

DateRace & ConditionsPosPR%CCRTFRTfig
24 Apr 2026San (9.95f, Gd Turf) ALW1st/11PendingPending79pPending
2025(UK) Juvenile Start1stPendingPendingPendingPending
Export to Sheets
Timeform & Tactical Note: Felicitas currently holds a Timeform rating of 79p. The "p" is crucial here—it denotes she is expected to improve significantly. Trainer Ed Walker has placed her masterfully to date.


IMG_0135.jpeg
 
Miss Scott is a highly progressive and beautifully bred 3-year-old filly who has rapidly validated her 650,000gns yearling price tag. Sired by the explosive Night of Thunder and out of a Camelot mare, she possesses a classic European genetic profile engineered for elite middle-distance contests. Currently boasting two wins and a narrow second from just three career starts for John and Thady Gosden, her recent dominant 10-furlong victory at Newbury confirms she is on a steep upward trajectory toward Pattern company.

Pedigree Analysis: X-Factor, Reines-de-Course & Conduit Mares​

The X-Factor Profile (The Large Heart Gene) As a filly, Miss Scott inherits two X chromosomes, drawing from two of the most potent cardiovascular pipelines in modern breeding:

  • Paternal X (Night of Thunder): Night of Thunder’s X chromosome traces to his dam, Forest Storm. Forest Storm is by Galileo, meaning her X chromosome routes directly back to the monumental matriarch Urban Sea.
  • Maternal X (Queen Guenevere): Her dam is by Camelot, whose X chromosome traces to his dam, Tarfah. Tarfah is a daughter of Kingmambo, routing her X chromosome directly to the legendary miler Miesque.
  • Result: The convergence of the Urban Sea and Miesque X-chromosome pathways practically guarantees a massive cardiovascular engine. This equips her with the lung capacity to sustain high cruising speeds over 10 to 12 furlongs without redlining.
Reines-de-Course (Queens of the Turf) This pedigree is saturated with foundational blue-hen class, ensuring elite genetic resilience:

  • Urban Sea: The ultimate modern Reine-de-Course, providing supreme classic stamina, iron determination, and structural soundness.
  • Miesque: A transcendent turf miler who injects brilliant, fast-twitch acceleration and class.
  • Fairy Bridge: The dam of Sadler's Wells (appearing prominently on both sides of the pedigree), anchoring the lineage with an immense injection of systemic class and turf dominance.
  • Allegretta: The dam of Urban Sea and a crucial matriarchal pillar for European classic success.
Conduit Mares

  • Zomaradah: The dam of Dubawi. She acts as an incredibly potent conduit for toughness, durability, and raw physical power in the sire line.
  • Uncharted Haven: Miss Scott's second dam. A multiple Grade 2 winner in the United States, she acts as a crucial outcross conduit, channeling American turf class, tactical speed, and hybrid vigor into the grinding European staying lines.

The Cross/Nick​

Night of Thunder (Dubawi line) x Camelot (Montjeu line) This is a spectacular "Speed over Stamina" commercial mating.

  • The Blend: Night of Thunder injects a massive dose of early physical maturity, explosive 1-mile speed, and raw power. This perfectly sharpens the deep, galloping 1m 4f+ classic stamina inherent in the Camelot/Montjeu sire line.
  • Result: It creates a physically scopey, balanced athlete capable of traveling smoothly on the bridle in high-class middle-distance races, backed by a potent turn of foot when asked to stretch.

Conditions Suitability​

  • Distance: 1m 2f (10 Furlongs) to 1m 4f (12 Furlongs). Her pedigree screamed that her 7-furlong debut win was achieved purely on class. She is now thriving at 10 furlongs and is genetically hardwired to stretch out to 12 furlongs effortlessly.
  • Ground/Going: Versatile (Good to Firm / Good to Soft). She has already won on both Good to Soft and Good to Firm ground. Her Night of Thunder mechanics allow her to skip off a sound surface, while her Camelot bottom line ensures she will easily plow through autumnal cut in the ground.
  • Track Type: Galloping Tracks. She has excelled at Leicester and Newbury—fair, sweeping, galloping tracks that allow her to balance up and utilize her long stride.

Form & Performance Interpretation​

Miss Scott’s form profile is exceptionally strong, marked by tactical adaptability and a highly professional racing brain.

  • Pace & Acceleration (Newbury, 18 Jul 2026): Racing over 10 furlongs on Good to Firm ground, William Buick had her perfectly positioned in second behind the leader. She traveled powerfully on the bridle, loomed large on the turn, and put the race to bed with a decisive turn of foot, exacting immediate revenge on Manaar (who had narrowly beaten her in her seasonal reappearance).
  • Equipment & Maturity: The Gosdens applied a hood for her two 3-year-old starts. This equipment change has clearly helped her channel her energy efficiently, allowing her to settle off the pace and save her fast-twitch reserves for the final two furlongs.

Locked-In Form & Tracking Summary​

The pre-race evaluation chart has been populated with her recent form metrics. Timeform ratings and raw speed figures will be permanently locked in once the official sectional data is retrieved for these specific fixtures.

Recent Form Summary Chart

DateRace & ConditionsPosPR%CCRTFRTfig
18 Jul 26Nby (10f, Gd/Frm) 3U Novice1st/5PendingPendingPendingPending
11 Jun 26Nby (9f, Gd/Sft) 3yo Novice2nd/11PendingPendingPendingPending
22 Sep 25Lei (7f, Gd/Sft) 2yo Maiden1st/12Pending
 
This is an excellent Listed contest that perfectly pits established, hardened older mares against a crop of highly progressive, beautifully bred three-year-old fillies receiving a crucial 3.5kg (approx. 8lb) weight allowance.

TXT


By cross-referencing their established kinetic benchmarks (Timeform Ratings) with their genetic ceilings and recent trajectories, we can accurately stack this field.

Here is the definitive ranking of the field in order of winning probability, synthesizing their established performance and genetic class ceilings:

1. FELICITAS (The Class Drop Absolute)

  • Performance: She holds the highest established Timeform Rating in the field at 106. Two starts ago, she ran a brilliant second (beaten just 0.8L) in the Group 3 Musidora Stakes at York. Ed Walker then aggressively pitched her into the Group 1 Prix de Diane (French Oaks), where she finished 7th.
    TXT+ 2

  • Pedigree: Sired by Teofilo out of a Dubawi mare. This is an elite stamina-and-class genetic blend.
    TXT

  • Verdict: Dropping from a Group 1 Classic down to a domestic Listed race represents a massive mechanical relief. Receiving the 3-year-old weight allowance, her Group 3 form makes her mathematically the horse to beat.
    TXT+ 1
2. MISS SCOTT (The High-Ceiling Threat)

  • Performance: A highly progressive filly with a 97p TFR. She arrives off a dominant 1.8L victory in a Class 2 at Newbury over 10 furlongs.
    TXT+ 1

  • Pedigree: An elite 650,000gns purchase. The Night of Thunder x Camelot cross perfectly blends explosive fast-twitch acceleration with deep classic stamina. Her X-chromosome pathways trace to Urban Sea and Miesque, practically guaranteeing a massive cardiovascular engine.
    TXT+ 2

  • Verdict: She is the ultimate danger. While Felicitas has the established Group form, Miss Scott has the pristine genetic ceiling and is on a steep upward trajectory toward Pattern company.
    TXT
3. REGAL CHARM (The Older Benchmark)

  • Performance: The best of the 4-year-olds, boasting a 103 TFR. She proved she belongs at this level last time out when finishing a clear 2nd (beaten 4.3L) behind Diamond Rain in a Listed race at York.
    TXT+ 1

  • Pedigree: By King of Change out of an Invincible Spirit mare.
    TXT

  • Verdict: She sets a very reliable form standard for the older horses. Crucially, she decisively beat On Message by over two lengths in that York contest, solidifying her position above her in the hierarchy.
    TXT+ 1
4. ALLA STELLA (The Grinder)

  • Performance: A highly consistent 4-year-old with a 104 TFR. Sir Mark Prescott has successfully campaigned her in France recently, resulting in two close 2nd place finishes at the Listed level over 2100m and 2400m.
    TXT+ 1

  • Pedigree: Study Of Man x Sir Percy.
    TXT

  • Verdict: She is tough and reliable, but dropping back to an extended 9 furlongs (1m1f201y) on Good to Firm ground might be slightly too sharp for her against the tactical speed of the 3-year-olds. She projects to run her race but may lack the final gear.
    TXT
5. ON MESSAGE (The Regression Candidate)

  • Performance: A 3-year-old Camelot filly with a 104 TFR. She ran 7th in the Group 1 Oaks at Epsom but underperformed significantly last time out when only 4th (beaten 6.5L) in the Listed race at York.
    TXT+ 2

  • Pedigree: Camelot x Shamardal.
    TXT

  • Verdict: She was safely held by Regal Charm last time out. While her prior Listed 3rd at Goodwood showed promise, she needs to bounce back from a flat effort to hit the frame here.
    TXT+ 1
6. ANNASTARZY (The Exposed Handicapper)

  • Performance: Completed an impressive hat-trick in handicap company (winning at Thirsk, Goodwood, and Newbury). However, she was beaten 2.5L into 6th last time out in a Class 3 handicap at Goodwood, carrying a 99 TFR.
    TXT+ 2

  • Pedigree: Sea The Stars x Dubawi.
    TXT

  • Verdict: While she is clearly in good form, stepping out of handicaps directly into an open Listed race against Group-level fillies is a massive class jump. The algorithm projects her as outgunned.
    TXT
7. GOLDILOCKS CEN (The System Lay)

  • Performance: The lowest-rated horse in the field with a 91 TFR. She was beaten a massive 27.6 lengths into 9th place in a Listed race at Galway on her last start.
    TXT+ 1

  • Pedigree: Teofilo x Mount Nelson.
    TXT

  • Verdict: She is completely out of form and outclassed in this lineup.
    TXT
Dutch bet to build a green book around the two algorithmic standouts is the mathematically optimal play here. The exchange market has neatly isolated Felicitas and Miss Scott at the top of the board, allowing us to leverage their elite 3-year-old genetic ceilings against the exposed older mares.

By locking in the best available back prices on the exchange, we can guarantee an identical profit if either of the top two crosses the line first.

The Optimized Dutching Blueprint​

Using the live exchange liquidity, the best available back prices are 2.54 for Felicitas (with £26 available) and 3.0 for Miss Scott (with £42 available).

Here is the exact staking breakdown assuming a baseline total liability of 10 points

  • Implied Probabilities:
    • Felicitas at 2.54 = 39.37%
    • Miss Scott at 3.0 = 33.33%
    • Total Book Probability: 72.70% (Because this is well under 100%, the Dutch holds a massive mathematical edge).
  • Tactical Market Assessment
Executing this Dutch yields a guaranteed 37.5% Return on Investment as long as one of the two unexposed 3-year-olds wins.

This strategy perfectly aligns with our unified genetic propulsion model. We are taking the Group 1 class dropper (Felicitas) and the rapidly progressing Night of Thunder filly with the pristine X-Factor profile (Miss Scott). We are effectively taking a collective stand against the 4-year-old Regal Charm (11.5 on the exchange) and Alla Stella (10.0), forcing the older, exposed horses to prove they can concede the 3.5kg weight allowance to elite younger rivals.
 
Last edited:
Beverley 4:45 Angel Numbers has the form confirmation profile, won easily LTO as fav and is 3 lb well in today even under the 6 lb penalty.

Again I have a slight worry. Firstly the draw in 10 at Beverley is hardly a desirable thing, but the horse does have good early speed, though can be held onto also. But there's pace in the low drawn horses and some on her immediate inside.

Secondly is the course itself because if she can get across to lead, will she last out on this stiffer track? Or perhaps she can work her way across to sit handy and arrive later?

I don't know the answer. I guess the risk is built into the price because she's drifted out to 9/2 from 3s now and everyone is having the same worries.

I'm going to leave it on this one. Especially as it's a horse I discarded last time and backed something else that she duly beat easily. I often find switching to these horses next time causes me to lose out again.
 
Chesham said:
This is an excellent Listed contest that perfectly pits established, hardened older mares against a crop of highly progressive, beautifully bred three-year-old fillies receiving a crucial 3.5kg (approx. 8lb) weight allowance.

TXT


By cross-referencing their established kinetic benchmarks (Timeform Ratings) with their genetic ceilings and recent trajectories, we can accurately stack this field.

Here is the definitive ranking of the field in order of winning probability, synthesizing their established performance and genetic class ceilings:

1. FELICITAS (The Class Drop Absolute)

  • Performance: She holds the highest established Timeform Rating in the field at 106. Two starts ago, she ran a brilliant second (beaten just 0.8L) in the Group 3 Musidora Stakes at York. Ed Walker then aggressively pitched her into the Group 1 Prix de Diane (French Oaks), where she finished 7th.
    TXT+ 2

  • Pedigree: Sired by Teofilo out of a Dubawi mare. This is an elite stamina-and-class genetic blend.
    TXT

  • Verdict: Dropping from a Group 1 Classic down to a domestic Listed race represents a massive mechanical relief. Receiving the 3-year-old weight allowance, her Group 3 form makes her mathematically the horse to beat.
    TXT+ 1
2. MISS SCOTT (The High-Ceiling Threat)

  • Performance: A highly progressive filly with a 97p TFR. She arrives off a dominant 1.8L victory in a Class 2 at Newbury over 10 furlongs.
    TXT+ 1

  • Pedigree: An elite 650,000gns purchase. The Night of Thunder x Camelot cross perfectly blends explosive fast-twitch acceleration with deep classic stamina. Her X-chromosome pathways trace to Urban Sea and Miesque, practically guaranteeing a massive cardiovascular engine.
    TXT+ 2

  • Verdict: She is the ultimate danger. While Felicitas has the established Group form, Miss Scott has the pristine genetic ceiling and is on a steep upward trajectory toward Pattern company.
    TXT
3. REGAL CHARM (The Older Benchmark)

  • Performance: The best of the 4-year-olds, boasting a 103 TFR. She proved she belongs at this level last time out when finishing a clear 2nd (beaten 4.3L) behind Diamond Rain in a Listed race at York.
    TXT+ 1

  • Pedigree: By King of Change out of an Invincible Spirit mare.
    TXT

  • Verdict: She sets a very reliable form standard for the older horses. Crucially, she decisively beat On Message by over two lengths in that York contest, solidifying her position above her in the hierarchy.
    TXT+ 1
4. ALLA STELLA (The Grinder)

  • Performance: A highly consistent 4-year-old with a 104 TFR. Sir Mark Prescott has successfully campaigned her in France recently, resulting in two close 2nd place finishes at the Listed level over 2100m and 2400m.
    TXT+ 1

  • Pedigree: Study Of Man x Sir Percy.
    TXT

  • Verdict: She is tough and reliable, but dropping back to an extended 9 furlongs (1m1f201y) on Good to Firm ground might be slightly too sharp for her against the tactical speed of the 3-year-olds. She projects to run her race but may lack the final gear.
    TXT
5. ON MESSAGE (The Regression Candidate)

  • Performance: A 3-year-old Camelot filly with a 104 TFR. She ran 7th in the Group 1 Oaks at Epsom but underperformed significantly last time out when only 4th (beaten 6.5L) in the Listed race at York.
    TXT+ 2

  • Pedigree: Camelot x Shamardal.
    TXT

  • Verdict: She was safely held by Regal Charm last time out. While her prior Listed 3rd at Goodwood showed promise, she needs to bounce back from a flat effort to hit the frame here.
    TXT+ 1
6. ANNASTARZY (The Exposed Handicapper)

  • Performance: Completed an impressive hat-trick in handicap company (winning at Thirsk, Goodwood, and Newbury). However, she was beaten 2.5L into 6th last time out in a Class 3 handicap at Goodwood, carrying a 99 TFR.
    TXT+ 2

  • Pedigree: Sea The Stars x Dubawi.
    TXT

  • Verdict: While she is clearly in good form, stepping out of handicaps directly into an open Listed race against Group-level fillies is a massive class jump. The algorithm projects her as outgunned.
    TXT
7. GOLDILOCKS CEN (The System Lay)

  • Performance: The lowest-rated horse in the field with a 91 TFR. She was beaten a massive 27.6 lengths into 9th place in a Listed race at Galway on her last start.
    TXT+ 1

  • Pedigree: Teofilo x Mount Nelson.
    TXT

  • Verdict: She is completely out of form and outclassed in this lineup.
    TXT
Dutch bet to build a green book around the two algorithmic standouts is the mathematically optimal play here. The exchange market has neatly isolated Felicitas and Miss Scott at the top of the board, allowing us to leverage their elite 3-year-old genetic ceilings against the exposed older mares.

By locking in the best available back prices on the exchange, we can guarantee an identical profit if either of the top two crosses the line first.

The Optimized Dutching Blueprint​

Using the live exchange liquidity, the best available back prices are 2.54 for Felicitas (with £26 available) and 3.0 for Miss Scott (with £42 available).

Here is the exact staking breakdown assuming a baseline total liability of 10 points

  • Implied Probabilities:
    • Felicitas at 2.54 = 39.37%
    • Miss Scott at 3.0 = 33.33%
    • Total Book Probability: 72.70% (Because this is well under 100%, the Dutch holds a massive mathematical edge).
  • Tactical Market Assessment
Executing this Dutch yields a guaranteed 37.5% Return on Investment as long as one of the two unexposed 3-year-olds wins.

This strategy perfectly aligns with our unified genetic propulsion model. We are taking the Group 1 class dropper (Felicitas) and the rapidly progressing Night of Thunder filly with the pristine X-Factor profile (Miss Scott). We are effectively taking a collective stand against the 4-year-old Regal Charm (11.5 on the exchange) and Alla Stella (10.0), forcing the older, exposed horses to prove they can concede the 3.5kg weight allowance to elite younger rivals.
Click to expand...
Thanks Chesham Chesham for those further insights. The breeding insight engine you're using covers a huge amount of information and detail that would take a human many hours to compile and digest.

I'm going to stick with the Walker filly on the basis of her wins and that excellent Musidora race where the winner looked all over an easy winner until Felicitas made her challenge in the last 2 furlongs.

When I backed Miss Scott last time, I was pleased to see Manmaar go on so early as to my eye it looked like MS was disadvantaged by having too much use made of her previously and Manmaar who was held up came late to win it.

It will be interesting to see who challenges latest today.
 
Chesham said:
Looks close

View attachment 170410View attachment 170411
Click to expand...
Horses who ran well in the Musidora have a decent record if dropped into Listed races in one of their next 2 or 3 runs. And I think the last horse to place in the race who then went to the French Oaks was dropped into a listed race (not this one) and won for Karl Burke.

I think it's mainly the fact Miss Scott is trained by Gosden, who has a good record with winners and placed horses in this race, that worries me. But I've committed to Felicitas and that performance she ut up to the Oaks 2nd in the Musidora really was a good one, suggesting she's more like a Group 2 horse and certainly up to winning a Listed Race.
 
Tufnel said:
Beverley 4:45 Angel Numbers has the form confirmation profile, won easily LTO as fav and is 3 lb well in today even under the 6 lb penalty.

Again I have a slight worry. Firstly the draw in 10 at Beverley is hardly a desirable thing, but the horse does have good early speed, though can be held onto also. But there's pace in the low drawn horses and some on her immediate inside.

Secondly is the course itself because if she can get across to lead, will she last out on this stiffer track? Or perhaps she can work her way across to sit handy and arrive later?

I don't know the answer. I guess the risk is built into the price because she's drifted out to 9/2 from 3s now and everyone is having the same worries.

I'm going to leave it on this one. Especially as it's a horse I discarded last time and backed something else that she duly beat easily. I often find switching to these horses next time causes me to lose out again.
Click to expand...
Ordered by draw:

1786538207304.png

1786538280016.png
 
Well that was a complete let down in the Salisbury 4:30.

I don't know what it is about Listed races that just doesn't work for me. Perhaps it's because they are a no man's land for horses who aren't good enough to win in Group company and can't carry weight in handicaps often enough to win them either.

Perhaps a reason to avoid them?

All you can say about the winner is she'd been 3rd in a similar race at Goodwood, outclassed in the Oaks then flopped at 4/1 2nd fav in another 40k Listed event at York back in 4th of 6 to odds on winner Diamond Rain.

Losing day.

All the more annoying as the first horse I looked at last night was the Evans horse in the 3:00 who'd been beaten fav at Goodwood the other day and was dropping in class with the form figs 227 and Murphy on board today.

But I went off it and moved on.

Just watched the sprint in the last at Beverley out of interest. Angel Numbers cooked before the final furlong. Interesting the horse she only narrowly beat who was drawn 3 to her inside just failed to finish ahead after coming late to a horse drawn 2.

Low numbers in 5f at Beverley on this ground paid dividens for anyone who looked in that pool of runners.
 
This is the harsh reality of tactical pace bias neutralizing genetic class ceilings. The algorithm correctly isolated the raw biomechanical superiority of the joint-favorites, but we must hold our hands up—the Dutch bet was completely undone by a front-running masterclass from the 14/1 outsider.

By stripping back the official result and analyzing the raw RaceIQ telemetry, we can expose exactly how On Messageengineered this upset and why our algorithmic anchors were mathematically compromised.

Here is the kinetic post-mortem of the Upavon Fillies' Stakes.

1. ON MESSAGE (The Tactical Robbery)​

We downgraded her as a regression candidate following her flat efforts at Epsom and York, but the data reveals she won this race entirely in the first two seconds.

TXT


  • The Break: She clocked a blistering 2.27s 0-20 MPH split, the fastest in the field. This allowed her to easily cross over, secure the rail, and dictate the tempo.
  • The Biomechanics: Fascinatingly, she recorded the shortest Average Stride Length in the entire field at just 6.92M. Her Kinematic Yield was a grinding 3.00 (6.92÷2.30). She did not win because she possessed an elite physical engine; she won because making all the running allowed her to hit the highest Top Speed (38.93 MPH) entirely unchallenged, running the finish out of the closers.

2. MISS SCOTT (The Unlucky Closer Anomaly)​

The algorithm's confidence in her elite Night of Thunder/Camelot pedigree and massive Urban Sea/Miesque X-Factor conduits was completely validated by her closing mechanics, but she fell victim to the pace map.

TXT


  • The Deficit: She was dreadfully slow out of the stalls, recording a 2.59s 0-20 MPH split and dropping straight to the rear. Giving an uncontested leader a head start on Good to Firm ground is mathematically fatal.
  • The Engine: Despite the massive tactical deficit, she recorded a phenomenal 7.21M Average Stride. Her Kinematic Yield was an elite 3.24 (7.21÷2.22), proving she covered immense ground with high cardiovascular efficiency. She is the quintessential "Unlucky Closer" for the KNN tracker—her engine fired perfectly, but the race shape defeated her.

3. FELICITAS (The One-Paced Grinder)​

The 106 TFR class-dropper ran a completely flat race mechanically.

TXT


  • The Levers: She possessed the longest Average Stride in the race at 7.31M and the highest Kinematic Yield at 3.33(7.31÷2.19).
  • The Reality: While her physical levers are massive, she simply could not quicken. Her Top Speed was a sluggish 38.72 MPH. The algorithm correctly noted her elite stamina genetics, but on Good to Firm ground off a steady pace, she lacked the fast-twitch acceleration to run down On Message.

4. GOLDILOCKS CEN (The System Lay Validation)​

The algorithm flagged her as completely outclassed with a 91 TFR following her 27.6L defeat at Galway, and the telemetry perfectly confirmed it. She was the first horse beaten, losing her position 3f out and finishing a detached 7th.

TXT


The genetic propulsion model correctly identified the massive physical engines of Miss Scott and Felicitas, but On Message exploited the "Insufficient Data" pace forecast to steal the race from the front.
 
Has anyone tried just using a horse's most recent 3 wins going back no more than 2 years/seasons to calculate the AR?

Surely there has to be some logic that if a horse hasn't been able to replicate a past good class win in it's last 3 victories, then perhaps it's not able to any longer?

I suppose a potential drawback to this could be over the jumps where a classy hurdler might go chasing and win 3 on the bounce in lower class than those hurdle runs, before going for a bigger chase event.

I just don't know anymore. Perhaps there was nothing to find under the VDW method so far this week.

One thing that has always concerned me is that whilst some have looked at every example and cross checked to confirm the factors involved, has anyone then used those factors to go back and check the race days in between where VDW didn't claim success?

Because unless one looks, they won't know if VDW was just cherry picking races where his factors worked out and ignored the races where they didn't. Looking at today's races won't confirm this issue.

It's a big task. And it could be a task that gives an answer one doesn't want to find. 🤔
 
Chesham said:
This is the harsh reality of tactical pace bias neutralizing genetic class ceilings. The algorithm correctly isolated the raw biomechanical superiority of the joint-favorites, but we must hold our hands up—the Dutch bet was completely undone by a front-running masterclass from the 14/1 outsider.

By stripping back the official result and analyzing the raw RaceIQ telemetry, we can expose exactly how On Messageengineered this upset and why our algorithmic anchors were mathematically compromised.

Here is the kinetic post-mortem of the Upavon Fillies' Stakes.

1. ON MESSAGE (The Tactical Robbery)​

We downgraded her as a regression candidate following her flat efforts at Epsom and York, but the data reveals she won this race entirely in the first two seconds.

TXT


  • The Break: She clocked a blistering 2.27s 0-20 MPH split, the fastest in the field. This allowed her to easily cross over, secure the rail, and dictate the tempo.
  • The Biomechanics: Fascinatingly, she recorded the shortest Average Stride Length in the entire field at just 6.92M. Her Kinematic Yield was a grinding 3.00 (6.92÷2.30). She did not win because she possessed an elite physical engine; she won because making all the running allowed her to hit the highest Top Speed (38.93 MPH) entirely unchallenged, running the finish out of the closers.

2. MISS SCOTT (The Unlucky Closer Anomaly)​

The algorithm's confidence in her elite Night of Thunder/Camelot pedigree and massive Urban Sea/Miesque X-Factor conduits was completely validated by her closing mechanics, but she fell victim to the pace map.

TXT


  • The Deficit: She was dreadfully slow out of the stalls, recording a 2.59s 0-20 MPH split and dropping straight to the rear. Giving an uncontested leader a head start on Good to Firm ground is mathematically fatal.
  • The Engine: Despite the massive tactical deficit, she recorded a phenomenal 7.21M Average Stride. Her Kinematic Yield was an elite 3.24 (7.21÷2.22), proving she covered immense ground with high cardiovascular efficiency. She is the quintessential "Unlucky Closer" for the KNN tracker—her engine fired perfectly, but the race shape defeated her.

3. FELICITAS (The One-Paced Grinder)​

The 106 TFR class-dropper ran a completely flat race mechanically.

TXT


  • The Levers: She possessed the longest Average Stride in the race at 7.31M and the highest Kinematic Yield at 3.33(7.31÷2.19).
  • The Reality: While her physical levers are massive, she simply could not quicken. Her Top Speed was a sluggish 38.72 MPH. The algorithm correctly noted her elite stamina genetics, but on Good to Firm ground off a steady pace, she lacked the fast-twitch acceleration to run down On Message.

4. GOLDILOCKS CEN (The System Lay Validation)​

The algorithm flagged her as completely outclassed with a 91 TFR following her 27.6L defeat at Galway, and the telemetry perfectly confirmed it. She was the first horse beaten, losing her position 3f out and finishing a detached 7th.

TXT


The genetic propulsion model correctly identified the massive physical engines of Miss Scott and Felicitas, but On Message exploited the "Insufficient Data" pace forecast to steal the race from the front.
Click to expand...
Perhaps things were clouded a little by the class of the horse she ran her best race against.

If you watch that Musidora, when she looms up alongside Legacy Link, she looks like she's going to go on and win. But she didn't and LL outstayed/outclassed her and went on again and put distance between them.

So I think it's tricky in that situation to be sure the 2nd was simply outclassed or didn't go through with her run. Or maybe it's somewhere in between.

I know I mentioned it earlier in my post on her chances, but the betting markets do play a part and the lowest price she had ever been was in that Musidora field. 18/1 on debut in Dec on the AW. 11/1 next time at Sandown when she won. Why wasn't she fancied at least in one of those?

I also have to say, when I looked at her dam and her grand dam, which I think I posted about too, I thought there was a lot of let downs with her grand dam's offspring including Felicitas own dam who won a lowly maiden after 3 runs before retired. By comparison on the same basis, Miss Scott's family looked better. Pretty sure I said as much earlier, but hey ho. End of the day I got it wrong and backed a bad bet.
 
Hi T Tufnel

Perhaps take the Metrics that you like from a VDW Methodology and develop your own Hybrid Method. There is so much data that is available to us now. If you think about it years ago Flat Races did not even have starting stalls. Timing was hand timed and no photo finish .

At least now you can carry out a post mortem with accurate information how one’s selection or selections won or lost .
 
Hi T Tufnel

I think that probably the Jockeys on the two market leaders thought they would be Fighting it out . MIss Scott was being held up. Her jockey thinking he would be pouncing on Felicitas and did not expect to see On Message still there in front. Both the market leaders had only 3 races each, always a difficult race to try and assess.
 
How strange, just seen this and what was I looking at a smartsig mag June 1999 and one of the contributors had a few pages called course conformation and standard times.
Has a couple of pages about comparing times from 2 sources in this case Raceform and Racing post, std times converted to mph and has 2 sheets worth of data which I will put up for you to have a look at may be of interest but probably outdated now.
 
Main method is Handicaps and working form a Tracker. The idea to go on the List is to find horses that the BHA handicapper as got wrong when they have been reassessed and ratings published on Tuesdays . I only examine races that have been run at a furlong pace faster than standard.

This reduces the number of handicaps to work out which horses are better than the BHA handicapper though that they were.

Next Stage is to evaluate the races that they are entered in, without automatically thinking they are a bet , just because they are possibly better than their revised handicap mark. Some trainers may give the betting public the run around and want to get a little more conditioning into the horse on the racetrack.

Only One horse today in the Tracker ran today in the Salisbury 3.00. When evaluating a race using my current way going forward I create a Tissue price. The cut off for my Tissue price is to only look for Over lays for Those who have a Tissue Price of 9/2 or less.

I could have a a horse who is Fav on my tissue price but is an underlay with the odds being offered. Then I move on to the other runners to see if odds being offered are overlays

With this method I am not trying to find the winner of the race but one who is value . if only one is value then a single bet. If more than one a Dutch bet

I will post an example of a no bet race

In today’s Salisbury 3.00 there was the opportunity to Dutch 3 who were value
 
T Tufnel

Since the excellent sprint handicap on Monday I have found only two very obvious VDW class/form horses, Another Investment yesterday and So Darn Hot today. Both top within their fields on VDW's ability rating and unquestionably "form" horses. BUT both in different ways flawed and left from the betting point of view. If I looked at races over non-sprint distances I am sure there would have been others, maybe one or two worth backing, but time is not unlimited.

While the VDW class/form horse can often be quite easily found by using an everyday view of what constitutes "form" (though by no means always), what I think is not sufficiently appreciated is VDW's comment that he only backed <20% of horses he thought potential winners. Finding the class/form horse is an important step in an analysis but certainly not the last.

After So Darn Hot's race my racing pal emailed me, including the following:

"It almost feels like a win when we show a bit of discipline when something doesn't quite feel right...."

and he is spot on. Obviously, if one doesn't bet there is no possibility of profit. But avoiding a loser means no loss, and as well as showing the positives, VDW's approach also shows the question marks and negatives and thus keeps one from backing many losers.

re the ability rating, my Excel application is currently set up to show five different ones; the basic VDW one (career win prize money divided by number of races won), the same for just the current year's wins and for each of the previous two, and a version of the first based solely on handicaps. I use the first as one of the two basics of an analysis (the other, obviously, VDW's "form" rating). But I would not substitute any (or any combination) of the ancillary ability ratings for the basic one. I use them just to throw light on the basic rating. For example, if a horse has no ability rating for the current year or 2025, it prompts the question is his or her basic ability rating misleading? If a horse has a high basic rating but a low one based on handicaps alone, is it because (like Dilgently earlier this week) it won some ultra-valuable non-handicap a year or two ago and has shown nothing much in handicap company since? One has to be very careful in adjusting the basic rating for ranking purposes, and I very nearly came a cropper with Diligently, but I think the variants of the basic ability rating are helpful often enough to keep the data in my main Excel grid.
 
Hi T Tufnel

Example of a no bet race

6.15 Windsor – Summary Chart (Timefigure / Speed Rating Focus)​

Monday, 10th August 2026 | Class 4 Nursery Handicap | 6f Turf (Good to Firm) | Avg OR: 80 | Median OR: 79

TXT


Master Performance & Statistical Summary Table​

No. & HorseORTfig (Last / Peak)TFRPRSJRT % (Win / ITM)DOD (kg)ADVIn-Running Trajectory (Settled → 800m → Turn)Tissue LineLive OddsVerdict
1. Harry Knows86
TXT		80 / 88

TXT		87
TXT		288

TXT		23% / 55%
TXT		-2.5

TXT		+5.40

TXT		4th → 4th → 3rd
TXT+ 1		6/4 (2.5)Evens
TXT		Underlay(Top speed figure, but no price overlay)
2. Keep Kicking On83
TXT		78 / 78

TXT		83
TXT		271
TXT		14% / 38%
TXT		+1.0
TXT		+1.25

TXT		5th → 5th → 4th
TXT+ 1		4/1 (5.0)3/1
TXT		Underlay(Solid speed figure, underpriced)
3. This Moment79
TXT		68 / 71

TXT		76
TXT		256
TXT		18% / 49%

TXT		+1.5
TXT		+3.67

TXT		2nd → 2nd → 2nd
TXT+ 1		> 9/27/2
TXT		False Price(Speed figures lag behind top pair)
4. Everatease79
TXT		56 / 75

TXT		80
TXT		257
TXT		23% / 39%
TXT		+12.0
TXT		+2.17

TXT		6th → 8th → 4th
TXT		> 9/210/1
TXT		Pass (Speed figure collapsed to 56 on last run)
5. El Lambo74
TXT		57 / 58

TXT		76
TXT		211
TXT		11% / 35%
TXT		+6.5
TXT		-2.60

TXT		6th → 6th → 6th
TXT		> 9/225/1
TXT		Pass (Low speed figures and negative ADV)

Speed Rating (Tfig) Analysis & Re-evaluation​

  1. Harry Knows (Top Speed Anchor):
    • Raw Speed Evaluation: Holds the highest last-run speed figure in the race (80) from his 4.3-length win at Windsor, as well as the highest peak speed rating in the field (88 from Salisbury in June).
      TXT+ 1

    • Tissue Line: His speed dominance confirms he is the rightful market leader, priced intuitively at 6/4 (2.5).
    • Value Assessment: Live odds of Evens make him a clear underlay.
      TXT
  2. Keep Kicking On (Secondary Speed Candidate):
    • Raw Speed Evaluation: Ran a career-best Tfig of 78 when winning a nursery over course and distance 21 days ago. This puts him 2 lb behind Harry Knows' last-run figure and 10 lb behind Harry Knows' peak Tfig.
      TXT+ 1

    • Tissue Line: Evaluated at a fair 4/1 (5.0).
    • Value Assessment: Offered at 3/1 in the live market, leaving no mathematical edge.
      TXT
  3. Speed Discrepancies Across the Field:
    • This Moment: Peak Tfig of 71 (and last-run Tfig of 68) shows a significant speed deficit compared to Harry Knows (80) and Keep Kicking On (78). The 7/2 live price remains heavily compressed due to connections rather than raw speed merit.
      TXT+ 2

    • Everatease: Achieved a peak Tfig of 75 at York in June, but his latest run at Goodwood produced a dismal Tfig of 56.
      TXT+ 1

Final Conclusion & Execution Protocol​

Substituting Tfig for TFR reinforces the structural picture of the race: Harry Knows is comfortably the speed horse to beat, with Keep Kicking Onestablished as the clear second-best.

Because neither qualifying selection (Harry Knows at 6/4 tissue vs. Evens live; Keep Kicking On at 4/1 tissue vs. 3/1 live) offers an overlay against the live odds, the requirement for backing is not met.

TXT


Final Decision: No Bet Race.
 
Hi T Tufnel

Example of when Value can be obtained ( I am using Ingredients to consider in these evaluations )


see

https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/ingredients-to-consider.22797/post-98910


3.00 Salisbury – Expanded Summary Chart​

Wednesday, 12th August 2026 | Class 3 Handicap | 6f Turf (Good to Firm) | Avg OR: 84 | Median OR: 85

TXT


Master Performance & Statistical Summary Table​

Pos / No. & HorseORTfig (Last / Peak)PRSJRT % (Win / ITM)DOD (kg)ADVIn-Running Trajectory (Settled → 800m → Turn)Tissue LineLive OddsVerdict
1. So Darn Hot90
TXT		94 / 103
TXT		251
TXT		16% / 40%
TXT		+2.5
TXT		-0.82

TXT		3rd → 2nd → 4th
TXT		9/2 (5.5)9/4
TXT		Underlay (Top weight 10-0, winless in 436d)
TXT
2. Dr Strangelove86
TXT		89 / 96
TXT		265
TXT		0% / 40%
TXT		0.0

TXT		+1.90

TXT		Off pace → 6th →4th
TXT		4/1 (5.0)15/2
TXT		🟢 Value Overlay Target (C&D winner, consistent placer)
TXT
3. Dandana89
TXT		83 / 87
TXT		230
TXT		31% / 38%

TXT		+2.0
TXT		-1.33

TXT		1st → 2nd → 1st
TXT		> 9/212/1
TXT		Pass (Faded late on return, negative ADV)
TXT
4. Regional Rock85
TXT		79 / 91
TXT		268
TXT		20% / 47%

TXT		+2.0
TXT		+3.25

TXT		10th → 10th → 10th
TXT		3/1 (4.0)5/1
TXT		🟢 Primary Overlay Target(Unexposed, 100% ITM)
TXT
5. Golden Brown83
TXT		74 / 85
TXT		267
TXT		0% / 11%
TXT		0.0

TXT		+4.40

TXT		20th → 21st → 21st
TXT		> 9/26/1
TXT		Pass (Raced off pace, 60d layoff)
TXT
6. An Outlaw's Grace78
TXT		80 / 87
TXT		254
TXT		13% / 39%
TXT		0.0

TXT		-0.56

TXT		4th → 4th → 4th
TXT		> 9/217/2
TXT		Pass (Long losing streak)
TXT
7. Supreme King78
TXT		55 / 89
TXT		280

TXT		19% / 44%
TXT		+0.5
TXT		+0.92

TXT		15th → 14th → 11th
TXT		7/2 (4.5)4/1
TXT		🟢 Value Overlay Target (Top PR 280, Oisin Murphy)
TXT

Key Metric Analysis & Applied Indicators​

  1. The 9/2 Tissue Ceiling & Overlays:
    • Regional Rock (Tissue: 3/1 | Live: 5/1): The unexposed 3-year-old holds a perfect 100% in-the-money record across four career starts. He features a strong +3.25 ADV, a high FormScore (PR 268), and the dominant Ralph Beckett / Hector Crouch partnership (20% Win / 47% ITM). His strong finishing effort at Windsor 16 days ago makes 5/1 a massive value overlay.
      TXT+ 2

    • Supreme King (Tissue: 7/2 | Live: 4/1): Boasts the top FormScore in the field (PR 280). A winner over course and distance in June, he arrives in consistent form (1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd in recent handicap starts) with Oisin Murphy booked.
      TXT+ 1

    • Dr Strangelove (Tissue: 4/1 | Live: 15/2): A proven C&D performer carrying a neutral 0.0 kg DOD. He has hit the frame in three consecutive starts on turf, holds a +1.90 ADV, and Tom Marquand takes the ride. Offered at 15/2 on the exchange, he represents a clear mathematical overlay.
      TXT+ 2

    • So Darn Hot (Tissue: 9/2 | Live: 9/4): Top-rated on raw speed (peak Tfig 103), but carrying a heavy 10-0 burden, stepping up in class (+2.5 kg DOD), and winless in 436 days. At 9/4, he is a severe market underlay.
      TXT+ 1
  2. Average Advantage (ADV) & Class Fluctuation:
    • Regional Rock (+3.25) and Dr Strangelove (+1.90) possess the strongest positive ADV trends among the tactical contenders.
      TXT

    • Dandana (-1.33) and So Darn Hot (-0.82) carry negative ADV figures into Class 3 company, confirming that they struggle to finish ahead of the majority of rivals in deep fields.
      TXT
  3. In-Running Trajectory:
    • Dandana expended significant early energy pushing forward to lead at Windsor before fading late (1st →2nd → 1st → 4th).
      TXT

    • Regional Rock demonstrated a late closing charge at Windsor, making up significant ground from 10th position at the turn to grab 3rd.
      TXT

Execution Protocol: Green Book Dutch (10-Point Total)​

Three runners met the 9/2 or shorter tissue ceiling while simultaneously offering live market overlays. This activates Bankroll 2 (Green Dutch) with a 10-point stake distributed proportionally to lock in an equal profit.

SelectionBetfair OddsStake (Points)Total ReturnNet Profit (Return - 10)
Regional Rock5.83.8522.33+12.33 Points
Supreme King5.73.9222.34+12.34 Points
Dr Strangelove10.02.2322.30+12.30 Points
  • Total Outlay: 10.00 Points
  • Target Return: ~22.32 Points
 
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