Class/form horses

[Leodis]

the solidus , i used it for ages, but it needed to be computerized ideally for speed of calcs, it was hit and miss but with some good winners, one great day was at York where it picked (worked out) a horse called ICE and it won at something like 16 or20-1, think in the end i concentrated on 1mile/8 furlong races, but I also think the Speed ratings didn't help in the weekender, sure something changed, and if you had an exceptionally fast time it seemed to knock others out of kilter,

I am sure some one did this on a web site and claimed good results

yes it was hard work. I did manage some winners from it though and also via the Simple Software that was free at the time.

 

[Leodis]

T Tufnel

he looks to be plateauing rather than improving.

I did ask the question, after I had re-run the model with course conformations included.

Horse	Key Running‑Commentary Evidence	Effort‑Shape Diagnosis	Class / Going Interpretation	Course‑Configuration Impact	Final Trip Verdict	Suitability Today
Jenever	Late work in two runs; outpaced mid‑race in stronger pace; one late fade; blinkers win	Mostly late‑strength, occasional late fade	Outpaced in Class 4 → wants further; going consistent	Carlisle reduces mid‑race flat spot and rewards late strength; late fade slightly punished	Needs further (7f)	Moderately suited — course helps
Another Investment	Four runs all show late surges; strongest final furlong every time; stamina‑based win	Pure late‑surge / stamina profile	Class 4 pace still doesn’t blunt his finish → strong stamina	Carlisle’s stiff finish perfect for his running style	Needs further (7f)	Highly suited — course ideal

Final Summary​

• Both horses want further than 6f.
• Carlisle’s stiff, uphill 6f upgrades stamina types, so:
  • Another Investment is strongly suited — his profile is perfect for this track.

Jenever is helped, but not as strongly — he has one late fade that Carlisle will expose if repeated.




Short answer: Another Investment has not plateaued. He has been running over the wrong type of 6f track for his effort‑shape — and Carlisle’s stiff, uphill 6f is the first 6f that actually suits him.
Below is the deeper, structured reasoning.

Has Another Investment Plateaued? Or Has He Been Running Over the Wrong Type of 6f Track?​

Core Diagnosis​

Another Investment shows four consecutive runs with the same effort‑shape:

• Held up
• Neutral or slightly outpaced mid‑race
• Strongest work in the final furlong
• Repeated late surges
• Wins through stamina, not speed

This is the pure textbook profile of a horse who needs further than 6f.
That means:

He has not plateaued.​

He has been running over the wrong type of 6f track.​

Why It Looks Like a Plateau (But Isn’t)​

On straight, flat 6f tracks, the race shape is:

• Fast early
• Pace collapses late
• Horses with early speed dominate
• Horses with stamina (like Another Investment) finish fast but often “too late”

This creates the illusion of a horse who:

• “Keeps finishing second”
• “Just fails”
• “Runs on but doesn’t get there”
• “Is consistent but not improving”

But this is not a plateau — it’s a trip mismatch.
His running style is being systematically disadvantaged by the track configuration.

Effort‑Shape Consistency = Not Plateauing​

Plateauing horses show:

• Variable effort‑shape
• Inconsistent finishing patterns
• Flattening late
• Loss of finishing kick
• Reduced ability to sustain runs

Another Investment shows none of these.
He shows:

• Identical effort‑shape every time​

• Strongest furlong = final furlong​

• Repeated late surges​

• No weakening late​

• No regression in finishing effort​

• No loss of closing speed​

This is not plateau behaviour.This is trip‑wrong behaviour.

Carlisle 6f Changes Everything​

Carlisle 6f is:

• Uphill from the start
• Round course (slower early rhythm)
• Stiff 3.5f uphill finish
• Rides like 6.5f–7f
• Massively stamina‑biased

This track:

✔ Reduces early speed influence​

✔ Makes the race shape slower early, stronger late​

✔ Rewards late surges​

✔ Exposes weak finishers​

✔ Upgrades horses who want further​

✔ Turns 6f into a stamina test​

Another Investment’s profile is perfect for this.
He finally gets:

• A track that brings his late strength into play
• A finish that magnifies his stamina
• A race shape that doesn’t punish his slow early pace
• A configuration that turns his 6f into his true trip

Food for thought!

Regards

 

[Chesham]

Front-End Pace Mapping & Tactical Setup​

Before constructing the tissue and assessing the form, we must map the front end using the Analiese Blueprint to check for an uncontested lead.

• Pace Scenario: Highly contested early speed.
• Prominent / Pace-Pressing Runners: Showtown (reverted to positive tactics to lead last time out), Pickersgill(led and took a strong hold two starts back), and Sixtygeesbaby (led before being headed 1f out last start).
• Tactical Assessment: With multiple runners possessing a strong tendency to push forward or pull hard early, there is no Lone Speed Anomaly in this 8-runner field. This contested pace scenario is highly likely to set the race up for a closer or a prominent stalker who can drop anchor in the slipstream of the early speed duel.

Carlisle 16:15 | 6f Handicap Summary Chart​

Horse	Master Tfig	Last 3 Tfigs	Last 3 TFRs	Jck %	Trn %	Hotform	DLS	Form Highlights & Move	Tissue Price
Another Investment	80	80, 80, 73	77, 80, 70	10% TXT	12% TXT	39.22	10 TXT	Three consecutive 2nd place finishes; elite Tfig consistency; drops into 0-70 company.	5/2 (3.50)
Jenever	82	81, 67, 74	77, 55, 74	16% TXT	4% TXT	62.70	21 TXT	Successful off a 6 lb higher mark over C&D last autumn; strong 3rd at Nottingham off 81 Tfig.	4/1 (5.00)
Great	81	77, 64, 70	71, 65, 66	22% TXT	20% TXT	15.53	6 TXT	Won impressively at Pontefract 6 days ago (77 Tfig) on second try at 5f; highly capable sprint form.	9/2 (5.50)
Maldevious	77	77, 48, 73	76, 42, 56	4% TXT	8% TXT	3.80	10 TXT	Won off a peak 77 Tfig at Thirsk with a tongue strap applied; steps back down in trip.	7/1 (8.00)
Pickersgill	76	54, 76, 61	55, 62, 58	16% TXT	18% TXT	19.49	5 TXT	Very erratic starts (missed break vs taking strong hold); peaked with a 76 Tfig at Southwell two back.	8/1 (9.00)
Sixtygeesbaby	78	74, 78, 71	70, 77, 47	10% TXT	14% TXT	11.75	21 TXT	Sent off favourite but failed to build on York promise; more miss than hit for new yard.	10/1 (11.00)
Showtown	73	62, 65, 66	63, 57, —	6% TXT	4% TXT	7.90	41 TXT	Best effort came under an attacking ride 5 starts ago; weakened quickly LTO.	16/1 (17.00)
Valentine Catcher	69	58, 40, 69	54, 32, 67	10% TXT	8% TXT	9.44	39 TXT	Losing run stretches to 18; appears to need a stiffer test than this 6f trip nowadays.	20/1 (21.00)

(Note: Stirrup Cup was marked as a scratched Non-Runner in the provided form guide and has been removed from the tissue).

TXT

 

[JennyK]

I assess the situation through my performance ratings, Leodis, taking all runs each year. On those, on average Another Investment's performance dropped quite a bit in 2025 compared to 2024, not much of a surprise for a horse at 6, and so far this year he has run a touch below his 2025 average but not enough for me to regard him as regressive this year, hence plateauing.

That said, the ratings for individual races vary and twice last year (on my ratings) he ran well enough to win today, but to do so he will have to put in his best performance in 2026. Maybe Carlisle will enable him to - we'll know in a few minutes.

 

[JennyK]

That run was so poor as, numerically, to make Another Investment's average performance rating for 2026 sufficiently lower than that for 2025 as to define him (only on my ratings of course) as regressive - but as with last year compared with 2024, not unusual for an ageing horse.

 

[Chesham]

Carlisle 16:15 Result Analysis: A Tactical Disconnect​

The official result and the subsequent RaceIQ metrics present a fascinating scenario where the actual race dynamics completely subverted the anticipated pace map, leading to a significant upset and the defeat of the two major form horses.

TXT

RaceIQ Breakdown vs. Original Expectations​

1. The Pace Did Not Collapse:

• Expectation: We mapped a highly contested early pace between Showtown, Pickersgill, and Sixtygeesbaby, predicting a setup that would favor off-the-pace closers like Another Investment.
• Reality: The race developed into a steady, controlled tempo dictated by Jenever and Showtown, rather than a destructive speed duel. This is confirmed by the very slow overall winning time (Vs Par: -2.56s). The lack of extreme early pressure allowed the leaders to maintain their energy reserves for the finish.
  TXT+ 1
  

2. Sixtygeesbaby's Tactical Reversal:

• Expectation: Sixtygeesbaby was flagged as a potential pace presser based on his recent tendency to lead. He was also coming off a disappointing run as the favourite and showed poor performance metrics for his new yard (-1.14 ADV).
  TXT+ 1
  
  
• Reality: He went left at the start, took a keen hold, and settled in midfield (3rd/4th through the early furlongs). This crucial tactical adjustment—sitting just off the controlled pace rather than forcing it—proved decisive. He produced a field-best Finishing Speed (FSP) of 101.20% and the strongest final furlong (12.38s) to win going away.
  TXT+ 1
  

3. The Failure of the Closers:

• Another Investment: The primary tissue selection (5/2 fair value) settled in the rear half of the field (6th). The slow pace worked entirely against him. He was forced to produce a field-high Top Speed of 41.69 MPH just to try and bridge the gap, but his FSP dropped to 99.00% as the exertion told, leaving him a well-beaten 6th.
  TXT+ 2
  
  
• Great: Similar to Another Investment, the slow pace compromised his chances from the rear. He bumped at the start and sat last (8th) through the early stages. Despite a strong mid-race surge (Top Speed 41.44 MPH), he could only manage 7th.
  TXT+ 1
  

Post-Race Takeaways​

This race serves as a stark reminder of the volatility inherent in sprint handicaps. While the Timeform speed figures and ADV metrics correctly identified the class horses (Another Investment and Great), the entire form profile was rendered moot by the failure of the anticipated pace battle to materialize. The slow tempo completely inverted the tactical advantage, punishing the closers and rewarding the horses positioned closer to the lead.

TXT+ 1

 

[Chesham]

Looking strictly at the Hamilton 19:30 race data provided, here is the clean summary chart and analysis for the actual 10-runner field, completely clear of any stray entries:

Hamilton 19:30 | Follow Us On X @Hamiltonparkrc Handicap Summary Chart​

Horse	Master Tfig	Last 3 Tfigs	Last 3 TFRs	Jck %	Trn %	DOD	ADV	Hotform	DLS	Form Highlights & Move	Tissue Price
Sanafi Zabeel	78 TXT	72, 78, 76 TXT	69, 72, 72 TXT	14% TXT	4% TXT	+1.0 TXT	+1.5 TXT	25.85	3 TXT	TWO MOVES:Dropped back, stayed on late. C&D winner in May; unsuited by drop to 7f LTO; consistent form. TXT+ 1	2/1 (3.00)
Second Fiddle	62 TXT	62, 32, 33 TXT	68+, 71+, 67 TXT	10% TXT	18% TXT	+4.5 TXT	0.0 TXT	22.54	25 TXT	TWO MOVES:Improved position, stayed on strongly. Regained form recently; three straight placings; top jockey riding well. TXT+ 1	9/2 (5.50)
Quiet Resolve	79 TXT	57, 70, 62 TXT	57, 74, 68? TXT	10% TXT	8% TXT	+4.0 TXT	+4.5 TXT	32.88	17 TXT	TWO MOVES:Dropped away quickly from mid-field. Needs to bounce back from poor Chester run; C&D winner in May. TXT+ 1	11/2 (6.50)
Epidavros	68 TXT	30, 43, 68 TXT	60, 76, 68 TXT	12% TXT	8% TXT	0.0 TXT	+1.5 TXT	38.30	55 TXT	TWO MOVES:Dropped back then rallied slightly. Largely consistent prior to poor run 55 days ago; course winner. TXT+ 1	7/1 (8.00)
Toralou	64 TXT	63, 64, 34 TXT	65, 74, 52 TXT	8% TXT	8% TXT	+5.0 TXT	+1.0 TXT	15.04	39 TXT	TWO MOVES: Held up, pushed along, no impression. Inconsistent since maiden win; solid 2nd at Ffos Las two starts back. TXT+ 1	10/1 (11.00)
Sogniamo	69 TXT	52, 43, 69 TXT	62, 44, 76+ TXT	20% TXT	14% TXT	+14.5 TXT	+8.0 TXT	11.91	25 TXT	Shock 80/1 winner on stable debut three back; hasn't replicated that form since. TXT	12/1 (13.00)
Turtle Reef	67 TXT	23, 67, — TXT	36, 72+, — TXT	8% TXT	12% TXT	+22.0 TXT	+3.0 TXT	1.90	33 TXT	TWO MOVES: Raced freely off pace, beaten early. Lightly raced maiden; gelded; huge +22 DOD class jump. TXT+ 1	14/1 (15.00)
Real Trouper	75 TXT	39, 43, 75 TXT	48, 50, 77 TXT	8% TXT	2% TXT	+12.0 TXT	+6.0 TXT	8.92	19 TXT	Showed promise on debut in 2025; well held in two starts this year; handicap debut. TXT	16/1 (17.00)
Vitality	57 TXT	23, 57, 17 TXT	22, 57, 41 TXT	16% TXT	13% TXT	0.0 TXT	+7.0 TXT	9.17	38 TXT	TWO MOVES: Led, pulled hard, weakened quickly. First-time hood applied to help settle; strong 2nd at Epsom in April. TXT+ 1	22/1 (23.00)

(Note: Pink Azalea is confirmed as a non-runner/scratched and has been excluded from the sheet).