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Class/form horses

One of the problems with studying VDW's work is that on some issues there are no sure answers. His way of rating "form" status, for example, though there is enough evidence in his examples to lead Lee, Guest and me to what seem to be broadly similar conclusions. But even more the problem arises with VDW's throw-away comment in the Conclusion of "Systematic Betting" re "the easy cracking of the handicap".

By referring to "handicap" it is not unreasonable to assume that VDW had weight in mind, as differential weight is much more a feature of handicaps than non-handicaps. But how in operational terms he "cracked" the handicap is both unknown and, almost certainly with his demise and no papers left, it seems, unknowable.

In thinking about the Hamilton race, Leodis Leodis, if we take the two horses with runs this year and plainly 6f horses, Ingleby Archie and Irish Dancer, the weight comparison over their career records might perhaps be relevant to the "easy cracking".

Ingleby Archie was won over 6f with 9.06, and over 5f with 9.08. Yesterday 10.00.

Irish Dancer has won with 9.11 (twice) and yesterday was carrying 9.07.

So IA was carrying 6lb, maybe even 8lb, more than his "base" achievement, while ID was carrying 4lb less.

With a nod to the rather different Canny Danny example, on actual weight carried ID was getting 7lb from IA (ie on the Official Handicapper's judgements). But comparing "base" achievements, IA was disadvantaged by 10lb or 12lb, so against the scheduled (Official Handicapper) weights, 3lb to 5lb worse off.

If we consider Ashen, he was proven with 9.09, admittedly over 7f but if he can carry it over 7f it is not unreasonable to assume he could over 6f. (I would NOT make that assumption re IA's 5f and 6f difference.) Yesterday, leaving aside the claim, he was carrying 9.09, so on his "base".

IF this tentative idea has anything to do with VDW's "easy cracking", we have, in "base" terms, ID best in of the three (4lb below his "base"), then Ashen (on his "base") and IA worst off (between 6lb and 8lb over "base").

This of course leaves out Ashen's claim, 5lb, so he actually ran off 9.04, 5lb below his "base". Under those circumstances, if the claimer proved as competent as a non-claiming jockey would have off 9.04, on the idea I am exploring he was better "in" than ID. And of course as a 4yo more likely to be progressive. The fact that Ashen didn't quite make it may be down to the inexperience of his jockey, who arguably rode a touch less effective race than a non-claiming jockey off 9.04 would have.

I am not at all confident that I am on the right lines re "easy cracking" but I can't but think that when considering the result yesterday, Leodis Leodis, weight, other than the simple Official Handicapper sense, was probably material.
 
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JennyK said:
I am not at all confident that I am on the right lines re "easy cracking" but I can't but think that when considering the result yesterday, Leodis Leodis, weight, other than the simple Official Handicapper sense, was probably material.
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Hi JennyK JennyK,

Thanks for highlighting this.

My model is supposed to take into consideration weight carrying efforts/performances. Therefore, I need to investigate further as to why Ingleby Archie splipped through the net.

Regards
 
Chesham said:
Hi Leodis Leodis ]
Not a betting race for myself, but it will an amazing feat if they can pull off another win at this Track again , especilly as the horse is an 8 year old.

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Hi JennyK JennyK

I think that you are falling into the trap of trying to Backfit to support the results. ID did not feature I. Your pre race assessment .

The problem with Backfitting is that The Pace Is not factored in when purely looking at Handicap Marks and Weight. WIth Sprints some runners will need a specific pace scenario . Of your going to Backfit the result to make sense of a result then Pace need factoring in .

Your idea yesterday of the Likely winner was IA but not enough for you to bet. IA Is a likely winner when able to get a soft lead from the front. Yesterday was not likely to get that, tried to lead, but you have ID who can race prominent and also make all

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Ashen has won one race over 7f and even tried over further than that . Ran the Top Speed in the race but had to use up fuel to get into a position to challenge and ran out of ground. Can be marked up, but depends how the handicapper reacts and when Jim Goldie decides when the horse will be placed to win. The Market will now bet heavily on Ashen NTO and Jim Goldie may give them the run around .

Although I only gave one horse who was “In The Zone” it was not a betting race for me , but IA was easily ruled out and a sensible play in this race for those who were betting would be a Dutch bet on ID and Ashen.
 
Hi Leodis Leodis

I use The Weighted Euclidean Formula , this also see seems to improve “Benchmark Handicapping “ when compared to the BHA handicappers revised ratings. This help pick out where the BHA may have missed something.

On Tuesdays I have a list of horses to look out for. When they are next entered I can see if they feature as one of the Probables after assessing the race that they are entered.

I have been collecting class 4 and better for the list, but as I am mainly betting in class 2 and 3, I will probably not bother covering the BHA assessment’s for Class 4 in future. My thought was what if a class 4 well in steps up to class 3 . But on reflection. This would probably show up when covering pre race assessment that they are entered in
 
JennyK said:
"Your idea yesterday of the Likely winner was IA"

That is not what I wrote.
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True

“Not Me comes out top of the standard VDW ability ratings ranking and is a VDW "form" horse, though one with several question marks and in my view in the 80%+ of such horses VDW would not have backed.

Second on class/form Ingleby Archie is more appealing and connections seem to have found a suitable race to try to follow up his lto win. Down in class, hopefully from their point of view off-setting his higher OR. A concern is that he has not done well with higher level weights.

The other three, all on lower ARs, have obvious question marks.

Overall, while I agree with you that Ingleby Archie has the most solid profile, not a betting race for me.”

I would stick to backfitting after the race has been run. This may help you back fit the race to be an expected VDW result. Shame that you did not even mention Ashen or Iris Dancer Pre Race.

Not sure how you got, Not Me as a VDW Form Horse as it had only been running its entire career over 1mile and even 11f . Dropping to 6f in yesterdays Race

Consistent Form is also need
 
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19.50 Wnd

Still trying to improve the transferable ability model:

Cristo would be deemed as the 'class/form' horse (highest FRSI),

HorseBest race usedBase abilityAdjusted abilityFRSISummary
Cristo03Jul26 Sandown, 8f, Gd, 4Hc, 6k161145145Same trip (1m), similar ground and class, recent win in a 10‑runner handicap; profile maps almost directly onto today’s 1m GF C4 at Windsor.
Newfangled25May26 Windsor, 8f, GF, 3Hc, 10k152144135Course‑and‑distance at Windsor, same going, similar field size and slightly stronger class; shows he handles the track and conditions very well.
Tribal Rhythm08Sep25 Windsor, 8f, Gd, 4Hc, 6k157141127Previous Windsor 1m handicap with comparable prize and field; strong ability figure and proven course suitability make this the best transfer race.
Bold Impact25May26 Windsor, 8f, GF, 3Hc, 10k147132124Windsor 1m on GF in a slightly higher‑class race; ran respectably and showed he stays the trip and handles the track, now with a top jockey booked.
Kalokalo20Jun26 Nottingham, 10f, Gd, Hc, 4k146110109Strong turf handicap effort over 10f on good ground; demonstrates well‑rounded ability and adaptability, dropping back to 1m after consistent recent form.
Candonomore30May26 Carlisle, 8f, GF, 4Hc, 5k1591211001m GF C4 handicap with similar field size and prize; solid ability figure and trip/ground match, despite today’s higher weight and new jockey.
Mollie Foster21Aug25 York, 7f, GF, 2HcF, 52k14610286High‑class turf handicap on GF showing she can compete at a good level; though mostly AW since, this is the best turf indicator for today’s conditions.
Knowledge30May26 Chester, 10½f, Gd, Hc, 8k15411679Competitive Gd‑ground handicap with a strong ability figure; trip longer than today but offers the clearest view of his peak handicap ability on turf.
 
Not my type of race, Leodis Leodis, but the market seems to assume the 7.50 is a four horse race.

Of the four, Bold Impact has yet to win a handicap and I have as yet no idea how VDW treated such horses in his "easy cracking of the handicap" approach, but for other three, the weights, both actual to be carried this evening and what I am currently thinking of as the VDW base weight, are as follows:

Cristo 10.01, 9.13

Newfangled 9.12, 9.10

Kalokalo 9.05, 9.09

Both Cristo and Newfangled are carrying relatively high weights for Flat horses (which from VDW's examples I take to mean 9.10 and above) and weights they have yet to prove they can carry. Taken together, those would raise a question mark in my Excel sheet if I had run the race through it.

Kalokalo is proven with his weight but the apparent weight advantage vis-a-vis the other two is very largely due to wfa and how VDW handled that in his "easy cracking" approach is yet another issue about which as yet I have no idea.
 
JennyK said:
Both Cristo and Newfangled are carrying relatively high weights for Flat horses (which from VDW's examples I take to mean 9.10 and above) and weights they have yet to prove they can carry. Taken together, those would raise a question mark in my Excel sheet if I had run the race through it.
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Cristo won LTo carrying 9-13, JennyK JennyK . It was only 2lb higher today.

Regards
 
Indeed, Leodis Leodis, as per my table.

An important VDW comment re weight was in my view in item 49 of The Golden Years ..., "that horses have INDIVIDUAL weight limits ... If a horse is set to carry more than they have previously performed well with, it is reasonable to assume the day will not be theirs, irrespective of other factors."

My reading of VDW's Flat examples is that he wasn't concerned when a horse who had won with say 9.03 was set to carry 9.08, but only when the weight was at the high end of the range. He did not, as far as I know, define where the high end of the range began; from my reading of his examples any weight over 9.09 gets a flag in my Excel sheet, not automatically to exclude the horse from being a bet (Roushayd won the 1988 Old Newton Cup carrying 9.10) but to check how that weight looks in the context of the horse's career.

Of the front four in the betting for the 7.50, two would have been flagged in my Excel sheet, simply because they carried more than 9.09. Checking showed that neither had won or gone close with the weights they were carrying tonight, so certainly not weights "they have previously performed well with", hence the flags would have become question marks.

Turning to the "easy cracking of the handicap," my current line of thinking is that it possibly includes comparing weights horses have shown they can perform well with and those they are set to carry in a current race. IF this is on the right lines it would, I imagine, mean that horses like Cristo and New Fangled would score less well than any which had shown they could perform well with their current weights.

Even if the above is on the right lines, I don't think for a minute that for VDW it suddenly became how he analysed races. Rather, with handicaps, it might perhaps be one of the ways of assessing whether a class/form horse is one of the <20% which should be backed, or even where there were several "form" horses not much differentiated by the ability rating, the way of establishing whether one had sufficient chance of winning to be worth backing.
 
It is great to see the interest in VDW after all these years prevails. I recall reading his method in the SCHB. It strikes me that most of what he preached is testable. For example if the starting point is past win race value averaged over all wins then back testing this to see if it move the goal posts closer is straightforward. I would then be inclined to test variations eg do placings or beaten by less than x pounds (weight for lengths by race distance) improve matters. If this first step does not bring the goal posts into clearer view then I would hesitate to go further. Have any of you seen this played out ?
 
Unfortunately M MySportsAI ], VDW was a fantasist who said was badly injured fighting for the Free Dutch army in WW2. It turns out he was a Lace Cutter in real life and during the wartime was only a schoolboy. He also wrote into the Raceform Handicap Book under the name G Hall claiming that he had spotted the Key and praising VDW for helping him . Ironically G Hall (Gordon Hall ) was VDW .He lived in a bungalow in Cromwell Crescent, Market Harborough and inherited a sum of money in his mothers will. He was married twice and his last wife was called Brenda.



Take everything VDW, with a pinch of salt as he tended to Backfit to suit the methodology . JennyK JennyK often will list horses with their Ability Ratings and stop there .

See Link below to post on this thread

Class/form horses

Another enthusiast did exactly the same

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Nothing wrong with the Platform Consistency-Class-Form-Probability as they form part of Race assessments

One of the Areas that you have researched “Key Race Form” can appear to fit in with some of VDW aftertimed examples that he had published .
 
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