Class/form horses

[BC]

Roushayd was the "form" horse

I can't see how that could have been.

Perhaps when I read SB later, I'll see if I can work out how that might be true. But I don't think it's likely tbh.

 

[Kraldrew]

I think he had improved speed figure in a higher class and over longer distance which was the key to him being a hypothetical bet

 

[BC]

I think finding the vdw form horses is so important the mysterious missing factor dont know how many times gone over the righthand and examples lol

It's a bit of a game, isn't it?

I'm not really looking for the answer. My next DIY project is to finish off a ceiling repair - I had to move the loft hatch. Having a dodgy back means I look for anything to help me procrastinate.

 

[BC]

I think he had improved speed figure in a higher class and over longer distance which was the key to him being a hypothetical bet

That rings a bell, actually. Must find my book this afternoon.

 

[JennyK]

BC

I think your two concerns - what Roushayd did in its last run and the strength, or otherwise, of him as a bet in the Old Newton Cup - need to be considered separately.

Taking the latter first, assume for a moment you are quite happy to view Roushayd as a "form" horse. He is a mile clear on ability, putting at its most negative not unsuited by conditions and a "form" horse. One can't ask for more than that in a class/form horse which, as you know is what VDW regarded as the most likely winner of any race.

Obviously in any race, including the 1988 ONC, a horse can run much better than its previous form suggests and maybe others run less well than expected. But on known form, no horse in the 1988 could beat Roushayd. Ile de Chypre went close, showing in doing so he was going to be a very decent horse. But until that point he was simply a young horse with unknown potential, while Roushayd was a rock-solid class/form horse miles clear of him and all the others on ability.

Of course that assumes Roushayd was indeed a "form" horse, which is the more fundamental question. As you say, just being a class dropper of itself means very little, certainly not in terms of form status or suitability for a bet. So what did VDW see in Roushayd's previous performance that led him to rate him a "form" horse for the ONC?

He tells us two things: "improvement in higher class" (chapter 5 of "Systematic Betting") and a sharp improvement in speed figures, from 27 to 65 (chapter 6). The latter is sometimes taken to be how VDW judged "improvement in higher class". Wrongly, in my view, though when the sfs are progressive it is always a plus.

Years earlier, VDW briefly defined form as "one performance is better than another". The need, therefore, is to understand why, in the context of the class 170 ONC, a 6th in a class 227 is an improvement on a 4th in a class 77.

For VDW this was, in my view, not a subjective matter; rather based on hard data. Not the improved sfs, welcome support though they were. Rather, other data which cannot possibly be deduced from the Roushayd example in isolation. But when one studies the other VDW examples, that data, and how VDW used it, become apparent and the Roushayd example conforms.

That is why Lee wrote that the only way to come to a convincing hypothesis (for none of us will ever know for sure that we are wholly correct) is by studying the examples, which is time-consuming and expensive (if one doesn't live near Boston Spa and already have a set of the relevant form books). Like any extensive research, it requires determination and a certain level of ability and when starting out there is no guarantee of success; Edison's comment about developing the light bulb is pertinent to all research. Why might one bother? Only, in my view, if one is attracted by the logical basis of VDW's approach - ability, form and conditions - and encouraged by the possibility that his 85% claim might not be a total fiction. (But let's be honest; if he had claimed a 50% strike rate, or even a 40% one, it would still probably be at least double what most achieve and thus something of interest.)

 

[Chesham]

Class/form horses

Sorry I have failed to get the inside measurement for each runners inside leg, but this is the Comparison with the BHA Handicappers assessment. I thought it might be time to travel forward in time from 1988 to the present day. You never know we might learn something that is different.

Tactical Front-End Mapping (Analiese Blueprint)​

Before looking at the final margins, we must map the early energy distribution. At a track as notoriously tight and turn-heavy as Chester, front-end positioning is everything. The 1f cumulative sectionals reveal a textbook execution of the Lone Speed Anomaly.

• Dark Thirty (IRE) is your primary tactical bet and the definitive Lone Speed Anomaly. He established the physical zero-line for early speed, clocking a 1f split of 14.41s. Because he faced absolutely zero pressure for the lead (the nearest chaser, Rosenpur, sat 0.21s back and did not engage), Dark Thirty was handed a complete free pass. By dictating his own terms on a track that heavily favors front-runners, he conserved enough fast-twitch energy to secure the win with a 100.41% Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP).

The Benchmark Flaw: Assessing the Closers at Chester​

Stewart Copeland (the BHA Handicapper) took the finishing margins at face value, completely ignoring the catastrophic physical disadvantages the closers faced. At Chester, spotting a lone speed leader any ground is a mathematical death sentence.

• The Conversion: On Good to Firm ground, 0.167 seconds equates to 1 length. The strict sprint scale dictates a conversion of 3 lbs per length.

The Biggest Beneficiaries (The "Well-In" List)​

Because the handicapper failed to account for the lost yardage at the stalls and the severe track bias, several horses in behind are sitting on massive hidden poundage advantages.

1. Ruby's Angel (IRE) — The Standout Anomaly

• The Hidden Yardage: She was hampered early and clocked a 1f split of 14.94s. Compared to Dark Thirty's 14.41s zero-line, she forfeited exactly 0.53 seconds before the race even developed.
• The Reality: Losing 0.53 seconds translates to 3.17 lengths. At 3 lbs per length, she spotted the lone leader ~9.5 lbs of physical ground at the jump. Despite the early interference and being tight for room late, she unleashed the absolute best closing speed in the entire field with a 102.15% FSP to snatch 4th.
• Well-In By: 9+ lbs. The BHA left her mark completely untouched at 86. Factoring in her start anomaly and extreme mechanical efficiency, she is massively well-handicapped.

2. Stratusnine (IRE)

• The Hidden Yardage: Breaking from the widest stall (9) at Chester is a nightmare. He clocked a 14.89s 1f split, forfeiting 0.48 seconds (2.87 lengths) to the leader. He gave away ~8.6 lbs of ground early just trying to navigate the draw.
• The Reality: He was forced wide on the home turn, covering significantly more ground than the winner on the rail, yet still produced an elite 101.03% FSP to finish 3rd. The BHA left his mark at 95.
• Well-In By: 8+ lbs. His underlying performance was drastically better than a 3rd-place finish implies.

3. We Never Stop (IRE)

• The Reality: He tracked the pace, losing 0.30 seconds (1.8 lengths, or ~5.4 lbs) to Dark Thirty in the opening furlong. To recover and miss the win by only half a length, he recorded a phenomenal 101.88% FSP. The BHA raised his mark by just 1 lb to 87.
• Well-In By: +4 to +5 lbs.

Revised Race Summary & Timeform Chart​

Horse	TFR (L3)	Tfig (L3)	BHA (Off / New)	PR %	CCR Rating	FSP %	True Adv	Full Timeform Comment
Dark Thirty	104 / - / -	99 / - / -	93 / 96	Pending	Pending	100.41%	Par	put together back-to-back good efforts for a change, but had all the advantages usually associated with this track and didn't need to improve on the form of his win in much deeper company at the Dante meeting last month to resume winning ways; led, pushed along 2f out, quickened early in straight, closed down final 100 yds, always holding on; he's not been with this stable long, but is already proving a shrewd acquisition.
We Never Stop	95 / - / -	91 / - / -	86 / 87	Pending	Pending	101.88%	+5.4 lbs (Start)	had undergone a breathing operation since last seen and ran one of his better races having had the benefit of a good position; chased leaders, pushed along 2f out, not quicken early in straight, stayed on; he's come a long way down the weights recently and looks up to taking advantage, especially when returned to all-weather (last 3 wins on tapeta and fortunate not to have split BHA ratings).
Stratusnine	103+ / - / -	100 / - / -	95 / 95	Pending	Pending	101.03%	+8.6 lbs (Draw/Start)	confirmed himself still in form with his sights lowered and this was another race where not everything went his way, from the widest stall; mid-field, pushed along over 2f out, forced wide home turn, edged left, stayed on.
Ruby's Angel	93+ / - / -	89 / - / -	86 / 86	Pending	Pending	102.15%	+9.5 lbs (Start/Traffic)	wasted no time getting back on track at a course that clearly suits and she didn't get the chance to show her all, shuffled back after early interference and then tight for room in the closing stages; hampered early, settled mid-field, pushed along early in straight, headway final 1f, keeping on when short of room late on.
Stormy Impact	95+ / - / -	91 / - / -	92 / 91	Pending	Pending	101.36%	Par	ran to just a similar level to last time, and although she was back up in trip, this hardly placed the emphasis on stamina; held up, pushed along home turn, stayed on.
Rosenpur	87 / - / -	83 / - / -	84 / 83	Pending	Pending	99.82%	Par	wasn't disgraced once again kept to a higher grade, particularly as he couldn't dominate this time; chased leader, not settle fully, pushed along over 2f out, ran wide home turn, weakened final 100 yds.
Purest Time	83+ / - / -	80 / - / -	85 / 85	Pending	Pending	101.68%	Par	is better judged on previous form, barely having a race having kept to the inner and found trouble; held up, pushed along home turn, never a threat, not knocked about.
Candonomore	80 / - / -	77 / - / -	82 / 81	Pending	Pending	101.56%	Par	is effective at 7f but was never competitive trying this trip for the first time up in grade; awkward leaving stalls, raced off the pace, pushed along 2f out, hung left, stayed on.
Solar Aclaim	80 / - / -	77 / - / -	92 / 91	Pending	Pending	98.77%	Par	was easy to back with conditions having gone against him (best on good or softer) and was also unsuited by the way the race developed; slowly into stride, raced off the pace, headway out wide halfway, ridden 2f out, lost place early in straight.

 

[gerry]

Well there is merit for every winner he gave but thats understandable we all could pick any race today never mine certain races and give reason why horse won it after race.
He would have got so much more credit with every one if he had gave a horse even after race he thought was good thing and got beat like i did with one of mine that got beat it never got away and blocked in and yesterday we mentioned one on here who should have won but never got out and then had terrible passage in race.
Chesham has showed us many times what lee done he found that the speed figure was massive indictor it was not just dropping in class but its last race was improved speed figure yet dropping in class.
And for some reason no one on here can say before race this is a brilliant VDW bet and why it is clearly no if and buts then if it got beat that would be just as good information as it winning.
Maybe its just vdw was in a era where winners where easy to spot using the system but now racing has changed current races don't apply.
I would guess and it is a guess that if we took the three best races handicaps on this saturday worked out to his system we all know the ability rating we all know dropping in class is good thanks to lee improving speed rating last run helps and i think the rpr going right way is other plus.
Now i am not saying this system does not work but looks like people are scared of failure that little bit more.
And why lee disappeared maybe got bored here maybe he realised it didn't work over time maybe he improved his system to be a gem now and that's natural to keep to ones self.
Maybe its just a hobby for some to keep at and try find the secret not just his secret as i dont believe there was one as he would have gave 10 bets before off knowing he is going to get 8 or 9 up so why would you not.
If my dad gave honest winners of his time doing his times like i am sure TheBluesBrother could do he would have gave 25/1 33/1 50/1 and many more and i know he did give them in the bookies before race to friends but he also had plenty that just did not run to there form as ground was not as fast or up in class or weight so no one is saying his system was not wise things but saying he gave 85% winners is nonsense well i should say got not gave 85% winners.

 

[gerry]

I dis say in that race that dark thirty would try lead but was worried about the turning track then i said rosenpur will from wide try to match it but needs soft so will struggle on ground to do so just thought this race was set up for rubys angel to sitt in the van and pounce but two things happened he slept in stalls enough to be last and dark thirty loved the bends fine but great analysing Chesham spot on .

 

[Chesham]

The integration of the RaceIQ cumulative sectional data perfectly exposes the mechanical truth of this Class 2 sprint at Newcastle. By mapping the exact furlong-by-furlong energy expenditures on a Standard to Slow Tapeta surface, we can completely dismantle the BHA handicapper's face-value assessment.

Here is the tactical post-mortem of how the front-end pace collapsed, and exactly who is carrying a massive hidden advantage into their next run.

Tactical Front-End Mapping (Analiese Blueprint)​

Newcastle's straight 6f on a slow artificial surface is a grueling test of stamina for a sprinter. The RaceIQ Cumulative Time from Leader metric reveals exactly who committed tactical suicide and who survived.

• Pocklington (GB) established the absolute physical zero-line for early speed. He was incredibly aggressive from the jump, rocketing to the front with a 1f split of 14.17s. He is the primary tactical anomaly here: despite setting a pace that completely destroyed the horses chasing him (Al Najashi and Fahrenheit Seven collapsed to finish 14th and 13th), Pocklington showed immense grit to hold on for 4th, beaten just 0.75 lengths.
• Tuco Salamanca (IRE) executed the ultimate patient ride. William Buick anchored him perfectly, logging a highly controlled 14.89s 1f split. By completely ignoring the destructive early pace, he conserved his fast-twitch energy and unleashed a field-leading 99.24% FSP to sweep past the dying leaders.

The Benchmark Flaw: Annaf (IRE)​

Stewart Copeland (the BHA Handicapper) anchored this handicap to the 3rd-place finisher, Annaf. He ran off a mark of 99, achieved a BHA performance figure of 100, and his new mark was raised 1 lb to 100.

By taking the lengths-beaten at the line at face value, the handicapper dropped the marks of the horses who were mathematically eliminated at the start, treating their defeats as a total loss of form rather than a mechanical impossibility.

• The Conversion: On Newcastle's Slow artificial surface, the time-to-length conversion is roughly 0.20 seconds per length, and the distance scale shifts to 2.5 lbs per length.

The Biggest Beneficiaries (The "Well-In" List)​

Because the handicapper failed to account for the lost yardage at the stalls and extreme traffic issues, several horses are sitting on massive hidden poundage advantages.

1. Fivethousandtoone (IRE) — The Standout Anomaly

• The Hidden Yardage: He was steadied at the start and dropped out to last, clocking a disastrous 1f split of 15.33s. Compared to Pocklington's 14.17s zero-line, he forfeited a massive 1.16 seconds before the race even developed.
• The Conversion: Losing 1.16 seconds translates to 5.8 lengths.
• The True Performance: At 2.5 lbs per length, he spotted the blistering pace exactly 7.5 lbs of physical ground at the jump. To compound this, he met severe traffic (not clear run 2f out, no room final 1f). Despite this, he finished on the bridle in 8th with a 97.37% FSP.
• Well-In By: 7.5 lbs. The BHA unbelievably dropped his mark from 98 to an 81. He is carrying a staggering hidden advantage into his next all-weather sprint.

2. The Caltonian (GB)

• The Hidden Yardage: Clocked a 14.94s 1f split, forfeiting 0.77s (3.85 lengths) to the zero-line. He gave away 9.6 lbs of ground early.
• The Reality: He recovered brilliantly to finish 5th (beaten only 1.25 lengths overall) at 100/1, producing a 97.97% FSP. The BHA dropped his mark an inexplicable 20 lbs (from 92 to 72).
• Well-In By: 10+ lbs. This is a massive handicapping error. He is dangerously well-treated for his next run.

3. Pocklington (GB)

• The Reality: As the lone survivor of the pace collapse, his true performance is drastically better than a 4th-place finish implies. He carried top weight (9-12), broke the field early, and still refused to fold.
• Well-In By: 2 to 3 lbs. Left on a mark of 100, he is a premier tactical bet if he finds a field where he can dictate without pressure.

Revised Race Summary & Timeform Chart​

Horse	TFR (L3)	Tfig (L3)	BHA (Off / New)	PR %	CCR Rating	FSP %	True Adv	Full Timeform Comment
Tuco Salamanca	111+ / - / -	99 / - / -	98 / 101	Pending	Pending	99.24%	Par	quickly resumed progress and has now won his last 3 outings on all-weather, all in competitive affairs and in pretty decisive fashion, sustaining a long run to the outer of the group on this occasion; raced off the pace, headway under pressure 1f out, led final 100 yds, kept on; he's yet to prove himself quite so effective on turf, but hasn't always had the best luck on that surface so it's not out of the question.
Strike Red	97 / - / -	86 / - / -	87 / 88	Pending	Pending	97.78%	Par	is following a familiar path and ran his best race from the 3 attempts he's had in this contest; mid-field, headway to lead over 1f out, headed final 100 yds, no extra close home.
Annaf	109 / - / -	98 / - / -	99 / 100	Pending	Pending	98.11%	Par	without any equipment this time, got back on track from easing mark to enhance a very good all-weather record, only outside of the frame once in 15 starts on the surface; dwelt, mid-field, headway under pressure over 1f out, kept on; he shaped better than the result from an 8 lb higher mark when mid-field in last year's renewal of the Stewards' Cup and may be peaking at the right time.
Pocklington	107 / - / -	97 / - / -	100 / 100	Pending	Pending	97.30%	+3 lbs	ran well reverting to front-running tactics and adding to an all-weather record that has only seen him finish outside the first 2 twice in 8 starts (3 wins); led until 1f out, no extra late on; will continue to give a good account.
The Caltonian	97 / - / -	87 / - / -	92 / 72	Pending	Pending	97.97%	+9.6 lbs (Start)	returned to form at big odds after 10 weeks off for a stable struggling for winners; mid-field, headway over 1f out, no extra late on.
Caburn	104 / - / -	93 / - / -	100 / 98	Pending	Pending	98.17%	Par	returned to form after 9 weeks off, doing enough to prove himself on tapeta but looking to have little in hand of his current mark; mid-field, outpaced 2f out, plugged on.
Cool Hoof Luke	107 / - / -	97 / - / -	104 / 102	Pending	Pending	96.16%	Par	wasn't disgraced making handicap debut given a more speed-favouring track would probably have suited him better; close up, raced freely, challenged 2f out, weakened last ½f.
Fivethousandtoone	96+ / - / -	87 / - / -	98 / 81	Pending	Pending	97.37%	+7.5 lbs (Start/Traffic)	is of much more interest on all-weather and shaped much better than the bare result in attempting to follow up last year's win in this race, never getting any room to open up and virtually finishing on the bridle; steadied at the start, dropped out, headway when not clear run 2f out, keeping on when no room again final 1f, finished with running left; will remain of interest on this surface.
Rapper's Delight	87+ / - / -	77 / - / -	89 / 87	Pending	Pending	96.34%	Par	was back on all-weather after a short stint in Meydan and shaped as if needing the run in first-time visor after 4 months off; dived right leaving stalls, tracked pace, raced freely, weakened over 1f out; next run should reveal more.
Knebworth	86 / - / -	77 / - / -	93 / 92	Pending	Pending	96.78%	Par	had finished second to the winner when last seen but wasn't in the same form returning from 3 months off, turning in a rare poor effort on all-weather, though this was his first outing at this particular track; mid-field, ridden out wide over 2f out, made little impression.
Power Fizz	85 / - / -	76 / - / -	97 / 96	Pending	Pending	96.73%	Par	had won from the back here when last seen 3 months ago but never got into the same rhythm after a bump at the start this time; hampered start, raced off the pace, off the bridle long way out, made little impression.
Topwarrior	79? / - / -	70 / - / -	92 / 90	Pending	Pending	94.97%	Par	back in headgear, fared little better back on all-weather, possibly still needing this run; prominent, pushed along 2f out, weakening when short of room final 1f.
Fahrenheit Seven	70 / - / -	63 / - / -	102 / 100	Pending	Pending	93.21%	Par	again ran poorly despite the return to all-weather; raced wide, tracked pace, weakened 2f out.
Al Najashi	57 / - / -	51 / - / -	94 / 92	Pending	Pending	91.87%	Par	had excelled on this surface earlier in the year but produced a very tame effort this time, something possibly amiss; prominent, ridden over 2f out, weakened.

​

 

[BC]

I thought it might be time to travel forward in time from 1988 to the present day. You never know we might learn something that is different.

Spoilsport. Where's the fun in that?

 

[Chesham]

Recalculated Well-In Margins: York Dash​

Note: Only Go Vince Go and Stargazed had structural anomalies. The rest of the field ran clean races, meaning their BHA Performance Figure is their True Performance Figure.

Horse	BHA Perf Fig	Hidden Penalty	True Perf Fig	New BHA Mark	Well-In Margin
Naana's Shadow	91	0	91	91	Par
Schrodinger's Cat	95	0	95	95	Par
Manatee Mehmas	90	0	90	93	-3 lbs
Go Vince Go	76	+8.4 lbs	84.4	80	+4.4 lbs
Mighty Magnus	80	0	80	85	-5 lbs
Alfa Duplicate	70	0	70	74	-4 lbs
Rotokura Belle	64	0	64	75	-11 lbs
Stargazed	75	+15 lbs	90	88	+2.0 lbs
Hanney Girl	60	0	60	73	-13 lbs
Boston Dan	71	0	71	86	-15 lbs
Allsortz	60	0	60	84	-24 lbs
Front Line Fury	55	0	55	82	-27 lbs
Fortification	56	0	56	88	-32 lbs

The New Handicapping Reality​

This calculation exposes just how harshly the BHA treats horses at the back of the pack in sprints.

Because the BHA anchored the race to the 3rd place finisher (Manatee Mehmas, leaving him on 93), they were forced to leave the horses who finished out the back on highly inflated marks. Horses like Boston Dan and Fortification ran terribly, but because the BHA refuses to drop horses 15-30 lbs in a single run, they are carrying entirely uncompetitive marks into their next races.

Under the new calculation, Go Vince Go actually emerges as the premier target from this race. His 8.4 lb wide/start penalty applied to his 76 Performance Figure gives him a True Performance of 84.4. Off a new mark of 80, he is carrying over 4 lbs of genuine, exploitable value.

 

[Chesham]

Well-In Summary: York Dash (Class 4)​

Horse	BHA (Off / Perf / New)	Hidden Penalty	Gemini Hcap Mark	FSP %	True Adv
Hallo Spaceboy	82 / 89 / 89	+11 lbs (Pace)	93	98.58%	+4 lbs
Evening Blues	83 / 87 / 87	0	87	96.73%	Par
Arduis Invicta	81 / 74 / 80	+7.7 lbs (Pace)	81.7	96.91%	+1.7 lbs
Mr Noble	80 / 74 / 80	0	74	96.20%	-6 lbs
Explosive Finnish	73 / 63 / 72	0	63	96.27%	-9 lbs
Invincible Boy	82 / 58 / 80	+14.5 lbs (Start)	72.5	96.41%	-7.5 lbs

 

[BC]

Obviously in any race, including the 1988 ONC, a horse can run much better than its previous form suggests and maybe others run less well than expected. But on known form, no horse in the 1988 could beat Roushayd. Ile de Chypre went close, showing in doing so he was going to be a very decent horse. But until that point he was simply a young horse with unknown potential, while Roushayd was a rock-solid class/form horse miles clear of him and all the others on ability.

Vouchsafe, for the reason given previously, can't, in my view, be dismissed.

 

[BC]

Of course that assumes Roushayd was indeed a "form" horse, which is the more fundamental question. As you say, just being a class dropper of itself means very little, certainly not in terms of form status or suitability for a bet. So what did VDW see in Roushayd's previous performance that led him to rate him a "form" horse for the ONC?

He tells us two things: "improvement in higher class" (chapter 5 of "Systematic Betting") and a sharp improvement in speed figures, from 27 to 65 (chapter 6). The latter is sometimes taken to be how VDW judged "improvement in higher class". Wrongly, in my view, though when the sfs are progressive it is always a plus.

But surely Vouchsafe had the same, no? Vouchsafe and Roushayd went across the line together in the Northern Dancer. In fact, from what I can tell, Roushayd only caught Vouchsafe because the latter was eased.

I found my copy of SB and re-read the relevant pages (18-25) over a late lunch.

I can't get past the fact that Vouchsafe should be written off: "He is now going up in class again and does not have the measure of Roushayd."

V matched R in the ND, then ran again and won. Yet V is written off as not having the measure. Yes, he gained a few pounds for the win - is that how VDW wrote him off in your view?

I would at least want a cover bet on Vouchsafe!

 

[BC]

Edison's comment about developing the light bulb is pertinent to all research.

• The "1,000 Steps" Quote: "I didn't fail 1,000 times. The light bulb was an invention with 1,000 steps."
• The "What Won't Work" Quote: "I have not failed 10,000 times. I have not failed once. I have succeeded in proving that those 10,000 ways will not work. When I have eliminated the ways that will not work, I will find the way that will work."

 

[JennyK]

BC

The ONC is a good illustration of why classier races, though sometimes with big fields, are often easier to sort out - much greater differentiation in the AR rankings (the 4.10 Thirsk and 6.22 Epsom today are good examples of that). What happened in the Northern Dancer in respect of their "match" was neither here nor there. For VDW, his performance in the Northern Dancer showed that Roushayd was getting to his peak. Vouchsafe won next time out, and improved his AR, but still well short of a now, in VDW's view, coming to peak form Roushayd and carrying more relative weight than in the Northern Dancer (specifically, 7lb). If Vouchsafe hadn't won between the Northern Dancer and the ONC, and Ile De Chypre had, on the then weights maybe Vouchsafe would have come second, not Ile De Chypre, But on known form (as distinct from, in Ile De Chypre's case potential) neither had any chance of beating Roushayd IF the latter was now at his best, as VDW believed his performance in the Northern Dancer suggested he would be.

A VDW comparison to illustrate the problem of little or no differentiation is the Kenlis example: "note how the relative ability of the whole field is like a blanket". Not that, when the "form" consideration is well separated, the class/form horse can't readily be identified and worth backing even when there is little separation on ability ratings (Sunset Cristo). The reason, I think, VDW referred to Sunset Cristo as almost a certainty was the lack of sufficient ability rating differentiation

A reason why very clearly differentiated (on ability) class/form horses are of particular interest is that there is no higher ability-rated horse that can come back to "form" and win. VDW's "form" status rating is necessarily based on past performances and that a "form" horse will be in form for its next run can never be guaranteed. Similarly, at some point a horse rated as not a "form" horse will come back to form; if it has a higher ability rating than the class/form horse, that can mean trouble.

 

[BC]

In my view, the ONLY way that a bet in the 1988 ONC was feasible is to pick your favourite and cover the other two.

You need all three covered as the SPs make the winner 81% likely to come from these three.

The Dutch won't work - it'd have been too short (even for me!)

But if you liked Roushayd, you could have had £32.50 @ 6/1.
Covers:
Vouchsafe £22.50 @ 7/2
Ile De Chypre £45.00 @ 5/4

Total risk £100.

If Roushayd wins, a profit of £127.50. If one of the covers wins, enough for a pint of lager and a bag of crisps at 1988 prices.

 

[BC]

That is why Lee wrote that the only way to come to a convincing hypothesis (for none of us will ever know for sure that we are wholly correct) is by studying the examples, which is time-consuming and expensive (if one doesn't live near Boston Spa and already have a set of the relevant form books). Like any extensive research, it requires determination and a certain level of ability and when starting out there is no guarantee of success; Edison's comment about developing the light bulb is pertinent to all research. Why might one bother? Only, in my view, if one is attracted by the logical basis of VDW's approach - ability, form and conditions - and encouraged by the possibility that his 85% claim might not be a total fiction. (But let's be honest; if he had claimed a 50% strike rate, or even a 40% one, it would still probably be at least double what most achieve and thus something of interest.)

My scepticism grew out of Fulham's revelations that VDW was, in fact, G. Hall, Lincs.

But just because I can't allow the Roushayd to go unchallenged does not mean I haven't found other aspects of VDW's writing very enlightening.

No, I probably don't have the ability (or the energy) to solve every aspect of VDW. But I've learned enough to be satisfied with my, albeit substandard, take on the saga.

 

[BC]

The ONC is a good illustration of why classier races, though sometimes with big fields, are often easier to sort out - much greater differentiation in the AR rankings (the 4.10 Thirsk and 6.22 Epsom today are good examples of that).

I now only look at some (not all) Group and Listed races.

 

[BC]

What happened in the Northern Dancer in respect of their "match" was neither here nor there. For VDW, his performance in the Northern Dancer showed that Roushayd was getting to his peak. Vouchsafe won next time out, and improved his AR, but still well short of a now, in VDW's view, coming to peak form Roushayd

But that's just a number. R & V crossed the line together - that's not just a number.

and carrying more relative weight than in the Northern Dancer (specifically, 7lb). If Vouchsafe hadn't won between the Northern Dancer and the ONC, and Ile De Chypre had, on the then weights maybe Vouchsafe would have come second, not Ile De Chypre, But on known form (as distinct from, in Ile De Chypre's case potential) neither had any chance of beating Roushayd IF the latter was now at his best, as VDW believed his performance in the Northern Dancer suggested he would be.

Yes, but the point is that it can't be a given. Certainly not for an 80% chance of winning bet.