Class/form horses

[gerry]

I have looked it a little different JennyK from what your saying and going by class and form in a more simplistic way yet true.
Looking at the class of past runs getting the best and then making sure the form is up to scratch, then just making sure there is consistency in the form of the horse.
Not sure where it will go but it through up 3 horses for today who look like the have decent chances based on these principals.
The horses are TRAPAIN LAW 1 10 AYR this horse was second in this last year to Tommy's Oscar but is younger and seems to like this track.
But it was the second last run when second at Musselburgh although was over 2 and half miles was a lot better than the race last year and looks like better horse and that run brings its form up to date. People will look at its form and cry not consistent but when you look at over all form placed in first 3 15 times out of 21 is not to bad at all.

The second horse i came up with is SIMMERING 2 00 NEWBURY. Your never sure of 2yolds moving up to 3 but it followed what i am looking at with best form, The last two runs give it massive chance in this and looks like just never lost its form at all so consistency not a problem.
On breeding no reason why should not come on at 3 and trainer in great form only adds to being reasonably ready here.
Those two races where also the class of this race so its hard to find fault.

Finally i have JAMES MCHENRY 3 12 NEWBURY. A other horse where last two runs where better than this race and run well showing some kind of class over this field, Its up in weight but has showed it can carry weight before.
You could argue that first time out not sure to trust form but has came out and won the last two years first time up and was second its first ever race which shows it can run fresh. Seems to have found a level of consistency too especially lately.
The trainer has 4 at Thirsk which you would expect today but still sending this one here with Buick on it , That alone could be tip in its self.

 

[mick]

I have used the same methodical approach for many years now which to my mind is straightforward and yet proves both sophisticated and complex. Only two parts are involved but each has many aspects A) A horse who is well in off my own ratings B) Who is then profiled to establish if it has been placed to take best advantage of its winsome rating.

Both A & B are often teeming with contradictions and complexities from which a bet or swerve call has to be made and sometimes i will then use the odds on offer to justify the perceived risks or make the no bet decision. I often feel that the more we think we know about why horses win or lose races then the harder the job becomes. I know this is not so but the thought persists.

I have two bets today both of which contain aspects of the above some of which i have tried to explain in the below post which i made in another part of the forum yesterday afternoon.


Sat 12th Nott 4.05 : Match Play @ 8/1

A 5 fur 0-65 Apprentice Hcap with 7 run. His all in 3-28 when filtered via G-F : Class 4 or lower : 8 or less run improves to 3-4 with the sole losing run being in a 2yo maiden on his racecourse debut. Currently its looking like the going will be G-F come the off, he has the small field and this will be his first ever run in a class 6. He also contests with FT CPs.

Match exits from the 3 stall with the last 2 running's of this race won from the same box and runs off 8lbs below his last winning mark. I do have concerns Re his 9-10 as he is unproven with this weight but reasonable odds in this 7 run event may tempt me to take a chance as he has won a 0-75 " comfortably " under 9-7 and fin a nk 2nd in another 0-75 under 9-9.

The stable appear in poor form with only one ytd winner but they did have one bt only 0.5 len on Wen and better still a hd 2nd yesterday evening in a 13 rn 8k Hcap at Newc which might be a tell that a few over due wins are imminent and the rider with 83 winners to date including one at this course def has the experience to get the job done.

Sat 12th Nott 7.20 : Glencalvie @ 14/1

An 8 fur 0-55 with 12 run. This Mares 1-9 on turf improves to 1-2 on the likely G-F with the losing run being in a Class 2 20k stakes race. That win came at this time last April and was off a 10lbs higher mark in a 12 run slightly better grade 0-60 and she runs here with FT CPs applied. The stable run two which is always a concern but i would feel no interest in backing there other one who has shown nothing on turf so far.

The rider appears in good form and the stable produced 3 winners last month. While Glencalvie's more recent runs do not give confidence and she may have genuinely regressed but she does have the looks of one placed to win here, and i take hope from noting that several similar dire runs on the AW preceded her previous turf win.

PN : The prices quoted are the current B365 ones.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

I have looked it a little different @

JennyK from what your saying and going by class and form in a more simplistic way yet true.

I remember back in the 1970s when the VDW letters appeared in the Handicap book, and they were a sensation regarding class/form. This is all you had to work with before the public internet rollout in 1993.

Being a speed/handicapper and using an Excel file with 33,000+ races, I ran the ratios between the official and RPRs through the statistics program SPSS and produced 3 class/form tables covering the flat, hurdles and chases.

So, today the ORs would be the Ability and the RPRs the Class figures for a horse.

Example:




Mike.

 

[JennyK]

As TheBluesBrother notes, there is a whole lot more data around than in VDW's day and it opens the possibility of improving on VDW's ways of assessing class and form. And we don't know how good VDW's were (and are). We know what he claimed, but those claims were never proved. The best we have by way of the results of pre race selctions are Lee's some years ago which achieved broadly comparable success to VDW's claims.

TheBluesBrother, gerry and mick have there own approaches and good luck with your selections today. My interest has been confined to applying what I hope is straight VDW methodology to the two rather poor Thirsk sprint handicaps, so I have nothing to contribute on the races in which your selections are running.

My two are typical of this time of the year. In the 6.40 six of the ten are returning after 100 or more days off the course, including the class/form horse, Bay Breeze. He has won first time out, and maybe he has been brought to peak fitness ready for today. But maybe he is well short of peak fitness and will need a run or two. I've no idea, and wouldn't have if I watched him walk by in the paddock.

In the 7.20, only four of the ten are returning after 100 day plus breaks. But it is worse in another respect - the ability of the field is very compressed, with seven of the runners between 39 and 44. Whether this will go to one of the three VDW form horses in the field - Mojomaker, Lord Abama and Cash In, time will tell. But in neither race will I be betting.

 

[JennyK]

re the 4.05 Nottingham, between mowing the front lawn and, soon, the back one, I ran the race through my application.

Again, a couple of "returners" but a reasonable spread on ability. Subject to checking for any with low value Irish wins, which are not included in my application and can lower the ability ratings I propose, I see there as being three form horses - Match Play, Sergeant Mayer and (being very generous) Northerner. Match Play the highest ability rated of the three and therefore the class/form horse. I hope that doesn't jinx him, mick.

 

[hedgehog]

Hello JennyK ,

I only have Bell Shot as a form horse in the 6.40 and Rock of England and Lord Abama as form horses in the 7.10.

I bet in the 6.10 and didn't have the winner as a form horse

Good luck

 

[Nellsman]

Hi JennyK ,

VDW did not say whether he backed 7th in the ability ranking and class/form horse Prominent King, simply commenting that he "looked a good proposition". Given that he died some years ago, what if anything he would have done betting-wise in respect of the joint 7ths in the ability rankings and class/form horses in the Newbury sprint handicap yesterday, we can't know, but whether he would have had a bet or not, he would surely have been pleased with the outcome.

I doubt very much if VDW would likewise have been pleased with the result of today's big handicap, the Newbury Spring Cup. I had the first 5 home as not form horses. we will just need to wait and see if the form of the race stands up. I think that the same may apply to yesterdays race as the market implied, it was probably not strong form.
Speaking of yesterdays race I noted that you had Photosynthesis as not a form horse, was this because of length of time since his last run?
I had him as a form horse and completely missed the fact that his last run was March 24 and not March 25 as I thought. Sometime I see things I think I see, but I don't really see them at all. It's an age thing I'm sure.

 

[Chesham]

Posted Pre Race On The Blog
key contenders in the 18:40 Thirsk Handicap (Div 1), using a hybrid ELO-style model (à la Dave Schwartz) with a bookmaker-style pricing output. This analysis incorporates Timeform ratings, speed figures, trainer/jockey form, C&D suitability, and deep dive observations based on past race comments and performance cycles.

---

Top 5 Horses: Form Cycle & Deep Insights​

---

1. Musical Touch (PowerScore: 1.00 | Bookie Odds: 6.8)​

• TFR: 89 (Recent peak performance, + improvement noted)
• TFIg: 85 (Excellent figure last time out, dominant finish)
• OR: 75 (Matches top of the handicap)
• Speed Handicap: 70 (Top-rated in this race)
• Going/CD: Proven
• Form Cycle: Improving
• Timeform Comment (Oct '24):
  

  "Improved when landing a gamble after 3 months off. Quickened smartly to win a 10-runner handicap. Looks capable of following up."

• Trainer/Jockey: Richard Fahey / Oisin Orr – proven combo

Best all-round profile. Unexposed, top TFR, and strong Timeform endorsement.

---

2. Filly One (PowerScore: 0.79 | Bookie Odds: 8.6)​

• TFR: 78
• TFIg: 77
• OR: 72 (potentially well-in)
• Speed: 65
• Going/CD: Fully suitable
• Form Cycle: On the rise
• Timeform Comment (Mar '25):
  

  "Got back on track after 8 weeks off, strong finish despite drop to 5f. Return to 6f a major positive."

• Trainer/Jockey: Geoff Oldroyd / PJ McDonald (22% win strike at Thirsk in TD combos)

Suited by return to 6f, lightly raced filly with upside. Timeform hints at more to come.

---

3. Bell Shot (PowerScore: 0.76 | Bookie Odds: 8.9)​

• TFR: 76
• TFIg: 79 (consistent high effort)
• OR: 73
• Speed: 53 (lower-end raw pace)
• Going/CD: Strong
• Form Cycle: Consistent
• Timeform Comment (Feb '25):
  

  "Typically enthusiastic. Led before fading late. Remains in good form and will continue to give good account."

• Trainer/Jockey: Michael Appleby / Alistair Rawlinson (Strong course figures)

Rock-solid profile. Consistency key, but pace could limit peak. Reliable EW prospect.

---

4. Bay Breeze (PowerScore: 0.75 | Bookie Odds: 9.1)​

• TFR: 68
• TFIg: 78
• OR: 70
• Speed: 65
• Going/CD: Very strong record (33% CD, 50% in class)
• Form Cycle: Coming back
• Timeform Comment (Oct '24):
  

  "Bounced back with a head win at Nottingham. Races prominently and handles all ground. Solid C&D record."

Course horse with strong reversion profile and one of best C&D records. Trainer David Allan solid here.

---

5. Muscika (PowerScore: 0.68 | Bookie Odds: 10.0)​

• TFR: 77
• TFIg: 75
• OR: 70
• Speed: 43 (concerning drop)
• Going/CD: Strong (33% win rate over C&D)
• Form Cycle: Holding form
• Timeform Comment (Mar '25):
  

  "Consistent over the winter. Not always getting own way in front. Hasn't run a bad race in months."

Tough and durable veteran. Lacks acceleration but always near the frame. Ideal conditions.

---

Other Observations:​

• Roundhay Park and Naval Academy are off the boil based on TFR/TFIg regression and poor recent comments (e.g. "markedly off form", "not worth a rating at present").
• Travis is struggling to find rhythm; despite a decent figure early in 2024, has lost momentum and pace ratings are well below par.

---

Ratings Summary:​

Horse	Form Cycle	TFR	TFIg	Speed	Top Performer Stat	Trainer/Jockey Note
Musical Touch	Improving	89	85	70	Strong Timeform +	Fahey/Orr combo
Filly One	On the rise	78	77	65	40% win rate	Oldroyd/McDonald
Bell Shot	Consistent	76	79	53	50% top 3	Appleby/Rawlinson
Bay Breeze	Coming back	68	78	65	50% in class, C&D	Strong track record
Muscika	Holding form	77	75	43	3x C&D winner	Steady profile

Chesham​

Sire​

𝗖𝗥𝗜𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗔 𝗙𝗢𝗥 "𝗙𝗢𝗥𝗠 𝗛𝗢𝗥𝗦𝗘" 𝗔𝗦𝗦𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧:​

We'll look for a horse that:

• Has recent Timeform ratings trending upwards (TFR/TFIg)
• Is achieving strong Speed Handicap ratings (top 2 preferred)
• Has competitive form in or above today's class (Class 5)
• Is noted in Timeform comments for recent improvement / race-winning potential
• Matches well on CD/Going suitability
• Is mentioned in RapidView as excelling in class/form cycles

---

𝗙𝗢𝗥𝗠 𝗛𝗢𝗥𝗦𝗘: 𝗠𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗖𝗔𝗟 𝗧𝗢𝗨𝗖𝗛 (IRE)​

---

1. Timeform Ratings & Recent Trend:​

• TFR: 89 → highest in the field
• TFIg: t85+ → strong finish / improvement noted
• Adj TFR: 92 → best adjusted figure

2. Timeform Race Comments:​

• "Improved when landing a gamble after 3 months off. Well on top finish. Still unexposed and looks capable of following up."
• Suggests significant latent ability + progression.

3. Speed Handicap Ratings:​

• Latest Speed Figure: 70 → top in field
• Shows ability to run to a mark well beyond Class 5 level

4. Class Ceiling & Record:​

• Won a Class 5 (0-72) convincingly on last start
• Timeform comments suggest can progress beyond Class 5 level

5. RapidView:​

• Top Performer Status
  • Last 3 Runs: 1 win, 2 places
  • SP/BF profit positive
• C&D & Going: Handles good to firm + 6f
• Trainer/Jockey stats above average

---

Honourable Mentions:​

Filly One​

• TFR: 78 (good), Speed: 65, RapidView: 50% win rate over 6f
• Excellent distance suitability, unexposed
• Strong Timeform comment: “Will benefit from return to 6f”

Bay Breeze​

• C&D multiple winner, strong class stats
• TFR/TFIg lower but RapidView gives 57% win rate in class
• Big positive in Class + Going, lacks peak speed of Musical Touch

---

Conclusion:​

𝗠𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗖𝗔𝗟 𝗧𝗢𝗨𝗖𝗛 (IRE) is decisively the form/class horse, meeting all major criteria:

• Highest TFR/TFIg combo
• Top Speed Figure
• Positive trainer signals
• Winning comment momentum
• Versatile surface ability
• Class 5+ progression track

Expectation: Likely to rate above this grade soon. Strong win candidate.

 

[Chesham]

 

[Chesham]

Big Tankyou to TheBluesBrother Speed Handicap Ratings (Speed Merit), and mlmrob for putting the daily sheets together

 

[gerry]

I am going to check from start of the flat and do my speed book my dad done many moons ago there was nothing special about it, But gave plenty big price winners and will check back if i get any i like in future doing it that way, Will be a back up for faster ground horses .

 

[gerry]

After having a look back at the times for the new flat season to see if there was anything to note so far as it is early in the season there is one out tomorrow who just might have a chance at nice price.
The race ETERNAL SUNSHINE run in at Musselburgh behind Mon Na Slieve was a decent time and although 7th of 8 beaten 5 3/4 lengths that will have sharpened it up no end and with Mulrennan back on it dropping to class 4 looks like could go well ,trainer is getting good tune out horses so far this season to he has three in this but i like this one to run well.
I have already took the 8/1 e/w bet.

 

[JennyK]

hedgehog

A problem in discussion is that terms are quite reasonably used in various ways, and many looking at the winner of the 6.40 would view him as a form horse. In specifically VDW terms, though, I think you are correct and I agree with you re Bell Shot.

In the 7.10 there cannot, I think, be any argument about Lord Abama's form status. Rock Of England, solely based on win prize money, fails BUT using the second measure of race strength that I do, the average OR of the field, things look rather different. The class 131 in which Rock Of England came 2nd on 25/08/24 had an AOR of 72.8. The class 50 he ran in on 31/03/25 had an AOR of 78.3, and on that measure was the better field.


Nellsman

Yes indeed with Photosynthesis, likewise Zoulu Chief. The principal VDW example is of course Homeson.

I didn't look at the 3.12 Newbury today before the race, but ran it through my application this evening. Although we agree that the winner was not a form horse, you'll see we differ on some others and in my view the outcome was less bleak from a VDW perspective than you see it.

 

[JennyK]

A better sprint tomorrow, gerry, than any today.

Attached is how the field comes out so far on my understanding of VDW, though the ARs are as they come from my database and I'll check them tomorrow morning on the Post's website in case one or more has Irish wins not included in my application..

Looking briefly at the data sheet for each runner, three things strike me. First, having his second run for Ruth Carr, I'll be watching Alligator Alley with interest. I will be very surprised if she doesn't get a win or two from him. Second, your selection has been very consistent, and consistently supported in the market. At the very least he looks a good prospect to land a place only. Third, the one I see as the VDW class/form horse, Knicks, looks as though he was unlucky not to finish better placed lto and presumably will be fitter for the race. (Though, subject to checking the ARs, Knicks is the VDW class/form horse, he is not of course a consistent form horse in VDW's terms which much reduces interest.)

 

[JennyK]

Nellsman

re time off course and form status, since my reply on Saturday I've done some further checking.

There are at least two examples where VDW seems to have ignored horses who had been off for more than a year; Homeson (who with three successive wins would otherwise have been a form horse) and Brown Barman, a runner in the race won by Kenlis on 07/03/1981, where VDW gave no consistency figure and simply the comment "Off course too long".

VDW was however seemingly happy selecting horses who had been off for several months - including all four of his Lincoln selections and Rifle Brigade. The most that can be said of them is that they had all run late in the previous Flat season, October or November, so typically off 5-6 months, which would have been normal in the pre-AW days.

Whether VDW had a "rule" to ignore any horse who had not run for more than a year (which is what I applied re Photosynthesis and Zoulu Chief), or a more nuanced approach, I don't know. How, for example, would he have viewed Il Padrone, on the figures I have the highest ability-rated horse in the race on 21/04/78 won by Celtic Pleasure? On the one hand, Il Padrone had been off for 310 days, short of a year but well over the normal 5/6 months. Given that he hadn't run since Royal Ascot the previous year, VDW might reasonably have concluded that something had gone amiss with the horse and treated him as he had Homeson and Brown Barman. On the other, he might have considered him but, noting that he was not a consistent form horse, moved on to second on ability Celtic Pleasure, who was.

I expect you will have noiced how the ability ranking worked out in the 4.45 Musselburgh yesterday. With the withdrawal at the start of Alligator Alley, the top three in the ability ranking filled the first three places. Not quite perfect from a VDW perspective, though, with the class/form horse being pipped at the post.

 

[gerry]

After having a look back at the times for the new flat season to see if there was anything to note so far as it is early in the season there is one out tomorrow who just might have a chance at nice price.
The race ETERNAL SUNSHINE run in at Musselburgh behind Mon Na Slieve was a decent time and although 7th of 8 beaten 5 3/4 lengths that will have sharpened it up no end and with Mulrennan back on it dropping to class 4 looks like could go well ,trainer is getting good tune out horses so far this season to he has three in this but i like this one to run well.
I have already took the 8/1 e/w bet.

Didnt try a leg on this horse and one to watch next time.

 

[Thomas]

We know Lee used lists which is fair enough, and vdw probably did as well.

The "masterclass" that was the Roushayd example has made me think a lot over the years. I have often changed my interpretation/s of it.

One thing I have often thought about was, he wakes up on the Saturday morning of the Old Newton Cup, a lovely July morning, vdw that is, buys his newspaper/s , has his coffee or corn flakes or whatever floats his boat, and opens his newspaper.

He then proceeds to do his analysis, however it would take him all day, and the race would be over. He obviously kept meticulous records and it was easy for him to turn back through them, Roushayd was on a list, so was all the hard work done from the time of the entries or the declarations, were they 5 days back then? So all he had to do on raceday was a bit of fine tuning?

He then follows the proccess using the result of the ONC, which throws up I'll De Chypre as one to add to the list, no genius in winner finding.

 

[Nellsman]

Hi JennyK,
you said you had Two Tempting as a form horse in the Newbury Spring Cup. I can't see how, could you please enlighten me? I hope it's not too much to ask.

 

[Nellsman]

Hi JennyK
I think maybe I should give my reasoning why I said he was not. His run in the Lincoln was not a form run and I don't think that this run can be ignored. Mainly because he was not outclassed in the Golden Mile at Goodwood last August, a race of similar class.

 

[gerry]

I am quiet excited starting my book of noted form to keep just like my dad did many years ago for the flat, where he had so many good winners coming from it and also ended up with some horses who turned out to be top class.
All done with keeping times as very important and i follow them from young age and even filled in his book when he was on holiday so i know what he thought was important.
What gave me the idea to start it again after all these years was Chesham mentioning that following breeding horses is like having your own little stable , And i thought that is exactly how you feel doing this having a list of important races where your waiting for them to run next in right races. Some time you see them out and know this is not right for it and your eager to bet just the same, but being more strict on it is important and there is plenty more racing to focus on now to not worry if you dont have bets some days.
That is why i have Grundy beating Bustino as my pic after all bustino was one of his top horses at the time but i told him that Grundy looks special to and could beat it that day he would not here of it.
Where they made the mistake with Grundy was they got greedy and run it in ark after winning derby and that king george epic instead of either retiring it or putting it away for arc the following year or other king george.
And it ended up squib of a stallion so they should have raced it following year possibly.