JennyK
Gelding
Having returned to the probables numbers in thinking about Cistus/Swiss Maid, I checked all VDW's claimed "The Golden Years..." selections and every one is a probable on my way of calculating them . I am not too surprised as those selections were very consistent horses but to find 100% working out was unexpected.
I haven't checked the later selections and I know that at least one is not a probable on my way of calculation - Rakaposhi King.
My idea is that the probables were part of VDW's checks at the time of the 1978 Erin until an as yet unidentifed date, on which checking the "The Ultimate ..." and "Systematic Betting" examples may provide an answer. So at the moment I am thinking the most likely reason why Cistus was out of the running in the race where Swiss Maid was the selection was not being a probable, and the idea of probables is one of several ways of interpreting the fourth element of VDW's Consistent form + Ability +etc formula.
I agree with you that it is very difficult to conceive that on his form status rating method VDW viewed Cistus as other than a "form" horse.
I haven't checked the later selections and I know that at least one is not a probable on my way of calculation - Rakaposhi King.
My idea is that the probables were part of VDW's checks at the time of the 1978 Erin until an as yet unidentifed date, on which checking the "The Ultimate ..." and "Systematic Betting" examples may provide an answer. So at the moment I am thinking the most likely reason why Cistus was out of the running in the race where Swiss Maid was the selection was not being a probable, and the idea of probables is one of several ways of interpreting the fourth element of VDW's Consistent form + Ability +etc formula.
I agree with you that it is very difficult to conceive that on his form status rating method VDW viewed Cistus as other than a "form" horse.