Cheltenham 2020
- Thread starter Tom O'Brien
- Start date
arkle55
Sire
Tom O'Brien
Colt
Yeah, he strolled in didn't he. I took the cash out offer on the trebles with B365 as it was quite generous, and let the 4 timer run on Itchy Feet tomorrow. We will see, but whatever happens over the next two days I will be well up on the meeting. Which makes a change. I have been doing quite a lot of ante-post bets with them over the last few weeks and it seems to have paid off for a change. I still have some other bets running; for example Ferny Hollow (20/1) with Aspire Tower (20/1) and A Plus Tard (16/1) in a 50p yankee.( the other one was Fakir D'oudaries) I also have Politologue (20/1) with Welsh Saint & Lisp....and Ravenhill, Dame de Compagne, and Simply The Betts in d/trebles. Also Shiskin, Champ & Santini (9/1) in a treble. And there will be others coming up over the next 2 days I hope! So could be a really good week if they all click.
Almost unbelievable...well done and good luck with the rest of them.
arkle55
Sire
Tomorrow
1.30 have Faugheen top rated from Itchy Feet , don’t like the race at all, Faugheen is 100 years old and visually I thought that Itchy Feet race in Sandown looked ropey so he’s not a horse I’ve any warmth for despite what the rating is telling me.
2.10 have Sire Du Berlais top rated quite a tight race, price just about ok
2.50 Min just top by millimetres from A Plus Tard , bookies have them covered
3.30 I don’t have a high rating for Paisley Park , I have Bacarcys top rated , but form tells you Paisley gets the job done without running fast, with the ground being Soft I like Ronald Pump ew, he runs from out the back and stays well and can see him coming past a lot of horses in the straight.
4.10 have Charmant top rated in a wide open race will have to throw a few quid at him at that price.
Le Bague Au Roi second top could be interesting as she gets further than the 2 1/2 miles and 149 mark looks fair.
4.50 have Concertista top here from Minella Melody and Getaway Totherock who looks a bit overpriced to me.
5.30 the one I like the most tomorrow Kilfilum Cross ran a blinder last time couple of pounds clear on my ratings and conditions should suit.
Good luck all
1.30 have Faugheen top rated from Itchy Feet , don’t like the race at all, Faugheen is 100 years old and visually I thought that Itchy Feet race in Sandown looked ropey so he’s not a horse I’ve any warmth for despite what the rating is telling me.
2.10 have Sire Du Berlais top rated quite a tight race, price just about ok
2.50 Min just top by millimetres from A Plus Tard , bookies have them covered
3.30 I don’t have a high rating for Paisley Park , I have Bacarcys top rated , but form tells you Paisley gets the job done without running fast, with the ground being Soft I like Ronald Pump ew, he runs from out the back and stays well and can see him coming past a lot of horses in the straight.
4.10 have Charmant top rated in a wide open race will have to throw a few quid at him at that price.
Le Bague Au Roi second top could be interesting as she gets further than the 2 1/2 miles and 149 mark looks fair.
4.50 have Concertista top here from Minella Melody and Getaway Totherock who looks a bit overpriced to me.
5.30 the one I like the most tomorrow Kilfilum Cross ran a blinder last time couple of pounds clear on my ratings and conditions should suit.
Good luck all
Tom O'Brien
Colt
Yeah, it is. I did say the night before when his price drifted that he was worth a saver at the new price. When I said he was a possible lay I was talking about the trends that I use when assessing if a horse could be a lay. And it was up in class and up in weight, which is the criteria I use when looking for lays, so he met the basic conditions. However, his price was too big to lay - anything over 3.5 on B/F I automatically reject. So he was layable material, but not at the price! I hope that makes sense!
arkle55
Sire
Tom O'Brien
Colt
Thurs
1.30 Itchy Feet (25) - Faugheen. (28) Itchy Feet is already taken care of in the yankee, so no need to back it tomorrow. It had scored 100% in the 10 yrs trend chart - as had Faugheen, and its VDW stats + my own additions made it very highly rated. Although Faugheen was rated even higher - 28 to 25, so that makes F the cl/form horse in the race. I shall be having a nice bet on F - though I will be hoping I F wins!
2.10 Skandiburg (23) - Welsh Saint (17) Both of these had only this entry at the festival, so both have been clearly targeted at the race. SK comes out well on top on stats/trends.
2.50 Riders On The Storm (24) Min (19) Riders is well clear on ratings/trends, though he has a bit to find on OR'S & vdw ratings. Min is the cl/form horse, though doesn't always find as much as expected. A dutch on both is suggested , though Frodon won this last year and won't be easy to pass.
4.10 Simply The Betts... Not a great race for favs, so here's hoping STB can buck the trend. The trainer thinks it is his best chance of the meeting. It's a c/d winner and has won 3 of it's last 4, and all its VDW stats stack up.
Here is the latest on the state of some of my ante post yankees;
ITCHY FEET WINS.....£1060 returns
A PLUS TARD wins...£85 returns....with Aspire Tower (16/1) to come.
WELSH SAINT WINS...£100 returns …with Lisp to come.
SIMPLY THE BETTS...£80 returns
There are some more yankees with runners still to come so it's in the lap of the gods - and horses - as to how much I finally end up with!
1.30 Itchy Feet (25) - Faugheen. (28) Itchy Feet is already taken care of in the yankee, so no need to back it tomorrow. It had scored 100% in the 10 yrs trend chart - as had Faugheen, and its VDW stats + my own additions made it very highly rated. Although Faugheen was rated even higher - 28 to 25, so that makes F the cl/form horse in the race. I shall be having a nice bet on F - though I will be hoping I F wins!
2.10 Skandiburg (23) - Welsh Saint (17) Both of these had only this entry at the festival, so both have been clearly targeted at the race. SK comes out well on top on stats/trends.
2.50 Riders On The Storm (24) Min (19) Riders is well clear on ratings/trends, though he has a bit to find on OR'S & vdw ratings. Min is the cl/form horse, though doesn't always find as much as expected. A dutch on both is suggested , though Frodon won this last year and won't be easy to pass.
4.10 Simply The Betts... Not a great race for favs, so here's hoping STB can buck the trend. The trainer thinks it is his best chance of the meeting. It's a c/d winner and has won 3 of it's last 4, and all its VDW stats stack up.
Here is the latest on the state of some of my ante post yankees;
ITCHY FEET WINS.....£1060 returns
A PLUS TARD wins...£85 returns....with Aspire Tower (16/1) to come.
WELSH SAINT WINS...£100 returns …with Lisp to come.
SIMPLY THE BETTS...£80 returns
There are some more yankees with runners still to come so it's in the lap of the gods - and horses - as to how much I finally end up with!
Last edited:
Tom O'Brien
Colt
Not really, no.. Maybe you are saying you changed your mind.
Well, there you go. You asked me the question and I replied. I had already backed Shiskin in an ante post yankee at 6/1, but when I saw him at 5/2 a day or two before the race I wouldn't have backed him. I backed AF instead at 4/1. As it happened Shiskin done my yankee a massive favour by winning at 6/1. If Itchy Feet wins tomorrow...well, let's say I will be rather pleased!
Arkle
Tom O'Brien
Colt
A selection of horses to include in yankees for the 2 days at Chel
Faugheen 1.30Th
Min 250 Th
Skandiburg 2.10Th
Goshen 1.30Fri
Thyme Hill2.50Fri
Lostintranslation 3.30Fri
Hazel Hill 4.10 Fir
Front View 5.30 Fri
Thatsy 2.10 Fri
Lisp 4.50Fri
The Storyteller 2.10 Th.
Faugheen 1.30Th
Min 250 Th
Skandiburg 2.10Th
Goshen 1.30Fri
Thyme Hill2.50Fri
Lostintranslation 3.30Fri
Hazel Hill 4.10 Fir
Front View 5.30 Fri
Thatsy 2.10 Fri
Lisp 4.50Fri
The Storyteller 2.10 Th.
Tom O'Brien
Colt
It's interesting to see that according to my laying system Paisley Park is a lay today. Not too sure about that, but I might chance a small wager on Apples Jade, who in receipt of 7lbs might be the one to cause an upset.
Really thought I have that race by the balls 2 out I had decent ew bet on Ronald Pump and smaller ew bet on Bacardys, 50/1 shot comes and does me didn’t even have that thing on my radar .
O
Outlander
Having a good day, well done up to now.
Having a good day, well done up to now.
Tom O'Brien
Colt
well. the laying system was correct. Didn't get the winner though. Though I had him in my yankees, to run in the NH Chase on Tue. And he goes and wins the bloody Stayers Hurdle!
Off to my sons parents evening so putting my thoughts up for tomorrow while I have a chance, my ratings been doing well and I feel the effort now was worthwhile with the jumps especially. Full of confidence now so probably going to experience the inevitable fall.
1.30 I have Goshen very lowly rated and I can’t have that at all especially as he is a bit of a loon.Top rated is Allmankind and I can’t think of a reason for him not to run well.
2.10 Only just at a price I can accept but look at that Aramon form franked by Honeysuckle, Darver Star, Petit Mouchoir and Sharjah, off 149 and I have him top rated.
2.50 have Monkfish top rated from Thyme Hill P Hobbs horses like Defi and Sporting John have been running like they have the Coronavirus so sticking with Monkfish.
3.30 I have Al Boum Photo top rated and I’ve been on him early ante post , don’t worry about the zero speed figure Topspeed gave him in Tramore the last day I have that run rated 173 right up with his 176 last year in this race and 173 in Punchestown, consistently puts up big numbers and is the one to beat .
4.10 have Don Slowly top rated but I can’t see that, he won’t be carrying any of my money, race looks a minefield Bob And Co put up a decent speed rating this season and would have been my pick but the owner also has Shantou Flyer and said he wouldn’t run both because he would be too devastated if the one he didn’t pick won, well he’s picked Shantou and pulled Bob out so I will probably have a small bet on that.
4.50 not a race I like the look off, I have Great Field top rated with Alan King pair Ballywood and Lisp close up.Not sure if I will bet any.
5.30 I have the Thurles race won by Five O’Clock as the key race with Front View top rated to reverse the form, price seems a little short, for a longer price Umbrigado maybe worth a look.
1.30 I have Goshen very lowly rated and I can’t have that at all especially as he is a bit of a loon.Top rated is Allmankind and I can’t think of a reason for him not to run well.
2.10 Only just at a price I can accept but look at that Aramon form franked by Honeysuckle, Darver Star, Petit Mouchoir and Sharjah, off 149 and I have him top rated.
2.50 have Monkfish top rated from Thyme Hill P Hobbs horses like Defi and Sporting John have been running like they have the Coronavirus so sticking with Monkfish.
3.30 I have Al Boum Photo top rated and I’ve been on him early ante post , don’t worry about the zero speed figure Topspeed gave him in Tramore the last day I have that run rated 173 right up with his 176 last year in this race and 173 in Punchestown, consistently puts up big numbers and is the one to beat .
4.10 have Don Slowly top rated but I can’t see that, he won’t be carrying any of my money, race looks a minefield Bob And Co put up a decent speed rating this season and would have been my pick but the owner also has Shantou Flyer and said he wouldn’t run both because he would be too devastated if the one he didn’t pick won, well he’s picked Shantou and pulled Bob out so I will probably have a small bet on that.
4.50 not a race I like the look off, I have Great Field top rated with Alan King pair Ballywood and Lisp close up.Not sure if I will bet any.
5.30 I have the Thurles race won by Five O’Clock as the key race with Front View top rated to reverse the form, price seems a little short, for a longer price Umbrigado maybe worth a look.
1.30
There is a formline around CERBERUS and maybe NORDANO and the manner in which GOSHEN beat nordano suggests to me that he has the form to finish in front of ALMANKIND, one thing that bothers me though is that both goshen and almankind are very keen and just ight damage each others chances. Of the others SOLO was a very easy winner and might be anything but what did he beat ?
GOSHEN to beat ALMANKIND for sall stakes for me.
There is a formline around CERBERUS and maybe NORDANO and the manner in which GOSHEN beat nordano suggests to me that he has the form to finish in front of ALMANKIND, one thing that bothers me though is that both goshen and almankind are very keen and just ight damage each others chances. Of the others SOLO was a very easy winner and might be anything but what did he beat ?
GOSHEN to beat ALMANKIND for sall stakes for me.