The 8.32 Nott. today offers scope for some speculation on the issue of trainer changes.
A nine runner 6f handicap where the VDW class/form horse is Nazron, but not a consistent form horse and probably not a class/form horse VDW would have backed.
Of the nine, five have been with the same trainer for a long time, while four have changed trainer relatively recently.
The four divide into two pairs - both Buccaby and Kats Bob have won since the transfer and one can speculate about the extent to which their successes were due to the new trainers.
The other two have yet to win and prospective speculation is more interesting than retrospective assessment as one is not biased by knowing the outcome.
The first is the VDW class/form horse, Nazron. According to the Post, switched from Roger Varian to Ivan Furtado on 18/11/24 when his previous owner sold him. His record, only once out of the frame in ten runs, including two wins, does not suggest a obvious reason for the sale, and the switch to Mr Furtado would seem more likely to be because of the change of owner, not dissatisfaction with how he was handled by Mr Varian. (Though as far as I can see, Mr Furtado is not one of the current owner's usual ones.)
Nazron, now a 4yo, won one handicap as a 3yo, a class 180 (average OR 78.9) over 5f on g/f on a speed course off an OR of 81. After that he ran once more for Mr Varian, now off 90, in much higher class and came a respectable sixth, beaten two lengths.
Then on 18/11/24 a new owner and transferred to Mr Furtado. Now off 91, he ran twice in late 2024, both in races of much higher AORs than previously and was well beaten in both.
First run this year on 08/04, by when he had been with Mr Furtado for over four months, so I'd presume he would be fully aware of the horse's state of fitness. Could the horse show improvement over his 3yo winning performance, as I would expect most 3yo handicap winners to do?
Not so far, in three runs, all of higher AOR than the 3yo win and off higher ORs. In the second of the three, much the lowest in class, he did however post an sf (61 using
TheBluesBrother's ratings) and a performance index (my ratings) approaching those achieved with the 3yo win, so hopeful. That race was a class 52, AOR 80.4, off 85, over 6f.
On his next run, his most recent, he was pushed up a long way in class, 309, AOR 89.8, off 83, over 5f, and was well beaten as an outsider.
Today he is back to 6f, where he achieved his best performance for Mr Furtado, dropped a long way in class, 57, AOR 83.3, except for trip in much the same conditions as for his 3yo win; g/f going on a speed course, much the same weight, and off 82, just 1lb higher than the 3yo win. If he has a clear run, then I'd expect a performance (on my performance ratings) near to or better than those of his 3yo win and penultimate run this year. The improvement he would need to show to win today over those two is well within the range I assume for 4yos. If he fails to at least match his two best previous ratings, without obvious reason such as problems in running, I would doubt that the change of trainer has been beneficial.
The second is, for me, even more interesting, Brazen Bolt, an 8yo, and owned throughout by a company.
He had had numerous wins for his previous trainers, the Quinns, but after a disappointing 7yo year - eight runs, three early in Bahrain including a win, but in five since in the UK, best placing 9th (last of 9) - he was switched to Ruth Carr in 01/02/25. This looks more like the owners hope a change will make a difference, but it may or may not be significant that the owners have recently bought a second horse and she is also with Ms Carr, not the Quinns, which could indicate a degree of dissatisfaction.
Ms Carr has now had Brazen Bolt for over four months and presumably knows his current level of fitness and has her opinion on what conditions he needs to win. The benchmark for me is his last handicap win, on 09/09/23 as a 6yo, a class 103, AOR 87.3, over 6f on good on a speed course, off an OR of 87. Some 7yos and 8yos do even better than they did as 6yos, but that is not something one can rely on; more likely 8yos show some regression.
So far, only one run for Ms Carr, on 17/05, in a class 52, AOR 78.6. 5f on g/f on a speed course. It may be significant that Brazen Bolt has never won on his first run of the year in the UK, and all of his five wins since 010/01/22 have been after a relatively recent run (8 to 24 days). No great shock that on 17/05 he was well beaten, though there is some positive in his Post comment and he led for 3f before being headed 2f out and weakening quickly in the last furlong. The fact that he was in a 5f race is interesting in that since 01/01/22 he had usually run over 6f or 7f, and all five wins in that time have been over those distances.
Today he is back to 6f, raised in class to 57, AOR 83.3, but now running off 80 - all three figures well below those for the last win in a UK handicap, though it was well over eighteen months ago.
One consideration is that the Carr stable does not seem to me to be in general a gambling one; horses win at long prices even when they have form to suggest they should be going off much shorter, Rousing Encore on 14/05 a recent example. So the fact that Brazen Bolt is the complete outsider does not worry me, though it looks from the last five wins under the Quinns that the owners (and maybe their employees) may bet and a marked shortening of Brazen Bolt's price would for me be significant.
On my performance ratings, Brazen Bolt's win on 09/09/23 was his best number (in UK races) by a country mile compared with his ratings since, and I'd like to see a very much better figure (today or in the next race or two) than achieved in any of his UK handicap runs since before reaching a view as to the (likely) rate of regression and current realistic target. That said, although I'll be surprised if Brazen Bolt wins today, I wouldn't be totally shocked, especially if there was significant market interest in him, which for me would indicate that the owners, and possibly employees, of Fishlake Commercial Vehicles Ltd think he has some sort of chance. FCV is a private company and publicly available information is limited, but neither the sole Director nor the Company Secretary appear to have any other horse interests, apart from the as yet "raced" only once second company horse ("raced" because on its only start it refused to race).
In short, not a race I am betting in, as Nazron looks a weak class/form horse from the VDW perspective and whether his current trainer will have improved him is an open question. That said, both the horses with relatively recent changes of trainer who have yet to win are of interest to me. If Nazron doesn't go close, without clear reason, I'd be doubtful about the effect of the switch. Brazen Bolt will surely show more than lto but I doubt he is quite ready to win yet; a good run would be both a positive for the trainer switch and a marker to keep an eye open for him next time.
GENETIC PROFILE & INBREEDING COEFFICIENT
DOSAGE PROFILE & RACING TYPE
NICKS & CROSS RATINGS
RACE PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Mental immaturity is likely the limiting factor so far — not a question of ability.
POTENTIAL AND PATH FORWARD
SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATION
Verdict: Secret Force (IRE) is a blue-blooded colt still learning his trade, but with every indicator — genetically, physically, and tactically — pointing toward stakes-level ability at 3 and beyond, particularly over middle distances on turf.
