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Can AI Find Winners in UK Flat Racing?

Chesham said:
It makes you wonder why this one has been backed into Fav. Other than a link to the late Barney Curly and BHA having dropped

View attachment 150845

Purchased at the 2023 Horses in Training for a Grand

Pedigree

https://www.tattersalls.com/cat/autumnhit/2023/1535.pdf

What does AI mke of this one cpw cpw is it a red herring or a genuine gamble
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Sure let's ask.
When comparing Many A Year and Gentle Ellen, there are distinct strengths and weaknesses for each horse that can help determine which is more suited for this race.

Form & Recent Performance:​

  • Many A Year: Showed signs of improvement in his last race, finishing fourth at Wolverhampton, which was a step in the right direction after several unplaced efforts. However, he has yet to win a race from 11 starts, which suggests he struggles to finish strongly.
  • Gentle Ellen: Her recent form has been inconsistent, finishing sixth in her last race at Haydock, but she has 3 career wins, all at 6f, which is encouraging. She has also proven to bounce back after poor runs.
Preference: Gentle Ellen. Although both horses have had mixed form, Gentle Ellen has more career wins and proven ability to recover from poor races.

Course & Distance (C&D) Experience:​

  • Many A Year: Has no previous runs at this course or over this specific course and distance combination. His experience at 6f is limited and his record shows no wins.
  • Gentle Ellen: Has won over both course and distance. Her C&D record (3 runs, 1 win) is a major advantage in this context. She is comfortable at this track, which can be a key factor in competitive handicaps.
Preference: Gentle Ellen clearly has the advantage with C&D-winning experience.

Going & Conditions:​

  • Many A Year: Has placed twice on similar going from 3 attempts, which shows he handles these conditions fairly well. While he’s yet to win, he’s shown potential on similar surfaces.
  • Gentle Ellen: Has a broader experience with going, having won on varying conditions from good to soft. Her 3 wins and 4 places from 17 runs on similar going show she's versatile in these conditions.
Preference: Gentle Ellen again takes the edge, having more proven success on similar going.

Distance:​

  • Many A Year: Has placed twice over the 6f distance but hasn’t yet managed a win in 7 attempts, indicating he may struggle to finish races strongly at this trip.
  • Gentle Ellen: Has 3 wins from 10 starts at 6f, a solid strike rate of 30%, showing she is well suited to this distance and can compete strongly.
Preference: Gentle Ellen. She has a much better win record over 6f, making her the more reliable horse at this trip.

Class & Handicap Experience:​

  • Many A Year: Has yet to win in this class or at this level of handicap. His recent fourth-place finish suggests he’s improving but remains winless in similar circumstances.
  • Gentle Ellen: Has previously won in this class and is dropping to a workable handicap mark. Her past victories in similar handicaps demonstrate her capability to succeed in this company.
Preference: Gentle Ellen, as she’s proven herself in this class and under similar handicap conditions.

Overall Consistency:​

  • Many A Year: Despite his recent improvement, he remains winless in 11 starts, and while he's placed a couple of times, he hasn’t shown the level of consistency needed to inspire full confidence.
  • Gentle Ellen: While not flawless in form, her 3 career wins and consistency in placing in the past suggest she's more reliable overall. She has a 15% strike rate across all flat races, which is respectable.
Preference: Gentle Ellen is the more consistent and experienced horse.

Conclusion & Preference:​

Gentle Ellen is the clear preference over Many A Year. She has the advantage in several key areas:

  • C&D-winning experience.
  • Better record on similar going.
  • Stronger form over 6f.
  • Proven ability in this class and at this handicap level.
While Many A Year has shown some recent improvement, his lack of wins and limited experience at this distance and class make him a less reliable contender. Gentle Ellen has a proven track record and is more likely to bounce back to form, making her the better choice.
 
Before we risk our wedge we need to know why ? Re Gentle Ellen your AI is saying her recent form is poor but not why. In my post # 9 i attempted to offer valid excuses for this. Incidentally prob down to the gamble on the Butler horse mentioned above by Chesham Chesham Ellen was knocked out to 11/2 with some for a while which imo was excellent value. I could not get the 11/2 but topped up at 5/1 and feel well pleased with this. :)
 
Chesham said:
It makes you wonder why this one has been backed into Fav. Other than a link to the late Barney Curly and BHA having dropped
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Took a quick look. Guessy without being "in the know".

It's not clear where the pace will be in the race. Many a Year (the gamble) was campaigned to race prominently early on its' career, so maybe their cunning plan is to burn them off from the front on the back of a better run LTO.

My ratings/book has Gentle Ellen top, so that backs up mick mick and Nervous Nervous on known form. What can go wrong?.....

1727096779525.png
It's
 
At Hamilton today the ground is described as good to soft but could it be a bit softer for the rest of todays racing ?
 
mick said:
What causes you to say this. ? :)
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I wondered if the ground was a bit softer than what their saying. As I dont do speed figures I am not familiar with average times for courses but I know there is plenty on this board who are and might be able to give me an answer. I also noted that ZUMAATY (IRE) is a proven soft/heavy ground performer.
 
I have gone for Rain Cap in this one on the test i am doing. However has gone up in weight so no confidence in it and will not be backed
 
Well that was not as planned. I didn't figure the fav to win. Blew it at the start I reckon. That's racing for you.
 
Chesham said:
It makes you wonder why this one has been backed into Fav. Other than a link to the late Barney Curly and BHA having dropped

View attachment 150845

Purchased at the 2023 Horses in Training for a Grand

Pedigree

https://www.tattersalls.com/cat/autumnhit/2023/1535.pdf
LTO TF Comment
took a step back in the right direction from falling mark after 5 months off, not seen to best effect from an unhelpful draw/position; raced wide, mid-field, took strong hold, ridden over 1f out, kept on, not ideally placed.




What does AI mke of this one cpw cpw is it a red herring or a genuine gamble
Click to expand...
Looks, like it was a genuine gamble
 
Well hidden dropped by 5 and only 1 Handicap run was so poor. I usually look for races where runners have at least handicap performances. Any way onward. The day is not over.
 
Last edited:
cpw said:
With the rise of AI, we’re all curious—can it really help us pick the winning horses? 🤖🐎

AI has transformed many industries, but can it crack the code of UK Flat Racing? Analysing data like race history, track conditions, and horse form allows it to offer insights traditional methods might miss.

Do you think AI could give us an edge I have been exploring for a while? Let’s discuss! Share your thoughts 👇
Click to expand...
All my ratings are generated using AI have been using it for over 25 years and its improving all the time.
cpw said:
With the rise of AI, we’re all curious—can it really help us pick the winning horses? 🤖🐎

AI has transformed many industries, but can it crack the code of UK Flat Racing? Analysing data like race history, track conditions, and horse form allows it to offer insights traditional methods might miss.

Do you think AI could give us an edge I have been exploring for a while? Let’s discuss! Share your thoughts 👇
Click to expand...
 
Well as i said at start the race was a little below what i needed to make havana pursuit a bet for me but i still thought although no course form its run at pontefract was the best form on offer had exsact same weight today and down 5lb in mark and to me was best speed figure although wasnt great.
 
cpw said:
What you will soon discover is LLMs are hopeless at Maths. Which is to be expected I guess since it's a LARGE LANGUAGE MODEL :) The thing most people don't realise is you can use Google's BIG QUERY and combine with AI. Also with the advent of plugins you can basically connect APIs right into your AI client.
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ChatGPT is very good with Python and Python is very good at maths!
 
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