Bookies and team ratings

[footysystems]

Sorry one thing I will say I do use a paid site oddalerts but it's cheap as chips compared to the returns value and value finding is key gents no need to look so deep imvho but great thread nevertheless

 

[cosmicsports]

Returning to our original subject, we could if we wanted nominate an elders committee to look into these things on a weekly basis.
Then come June 2024 we will be able to produce a report.
But has n't anyone done this before in the entire web ?
I 'd be surprised if they have n't.

 

[rmwesley]

I do this every day as odds are dynamic along with the sports they represent - a race looked at with limited information the night before will not be the same as a race looked at with more information at 9am , just as a race looked at at 12.30 with even more information so the odds are dynamic because the sports/racing is dynamic. Deliberately HOLDING BACK very predictive factors from the original modelling / selection process and then using them in the way explained above(and there is no "intuition involved" -it's purely mathematical- Bayesian in a sense) can have the same effect,and by introducing these new factors at an optimal stage of the market allows you to UPDATE your probabilities instead of using a "static" rating that was maybe calculated many hours before the game and has limited inputs anyway.

I've been thinking about this a lot but just can't get my head around it. What is the advantage of holding back the best features (most predictive?) from a logistic regression model. Wouldn't you would want to include the best features whenever you predicted an outcome , i.e. with the best information you have at that time. I understand new information becomes available chronologically as the weather changes, people get food poisoning, someone gets injured in training etc. but I don't think you are saying this.

If I can get my head around this part, it might then be obvious when the optimal time to introduce held-back features is. If it isn't obvious, could you give your thoughts on that also.

Thanks again for your time.