MySportsAI
Colt
In response to twitter thread about Pinnacle sports prices at the off and early and whether one was more accurate than the other as a predictor. It was found that at the off was better but they did not include horse racing so I took a look at 10 min and BFSP on Betfair for 2018 and 2019
A measure of prediction accuracy is the Brier Score, its the squared difference between predicted wins and actual wins
Here are the Brier scores for both (lower is better) all races with No NRs
10 min prices 0.0845
BFSP prices 0.0839
BFSP is slightly better but not by much. What does this mean, well 10 min prices can be used as chance indicator
A measure of prediction accuracy is the Brier Score, its the squared difference between predicted wins and actual wins
Here are the Brier scores for both (lower is better) all races with No NRs
10 min prices 0.0845
BFSP prices 0.0839
BFSP is slightly better but not by much. What does this mean, well 10 min prices can be used as chance indicator