Betting Form - Fallen off a cliff

[tony spencer]

Cheers all for the replies here.

gerry - Quite possible I am suffering from the betting having markets far more accurate. I will often narrow a race down to a few, go for who I think is best value and watch a shorter one win, or I'll have one I like but JUST a bit shorter than I want and they regularly win.

I've gone with two tonight;

White Umbrella
Wolverhampton · 20:07
14/1 1pt Each-Way
She will slap up like a steering job when she finally gets a strong pace to aim at. I thought that was coming LTO but one of the usual front-runners decider to sit in. Her run on 16th June last year (OR61) is well worth a watch as to what she can do. Down in grade (0-60) so 7f may help her.

Sugar Sugar
Epsom · 20:25
15/2 2pt Win
Handicap debut for Jack Channon. I follow his newcomers 2TO as they improve hand over fist for debuts, but she was given a very easy time again, looked like getting left behind and then rallied for a very decent 2¼ 3rd of 6 (50/1), just a half length off of 2nd. She was given a far stronger ride on third start at Wolverhampton, ran 2nd around three lengths clear of 3rd but bumped into one well clear of her. Opening mark of 65 looks lenient.

20:25 Epsom — full race overview​

6f Class 5 handicap | Good to firm | 7 runners
This is a tactically interesting sprint because the race contains several horses capable of racing close to the speed, but the evidence does not point to a complete pace collapse.
The strongest profile is likely to be a runner that can obtain a handy position, settle efficiently around Epsom’s turning track and still produce a finish.

Likely race shape​

Lady Gormire is the most likely leader, with Victor Cee, Mount Mogan and possibly Elvetham close enough to apply some pressure.
Projected early order:

1. Lady Gormire
2. Victor Cee
3. Mount Mogan
4. Elvetham
5. Sugar Sugar
6. Twirler
7. Harry Brown

The collapse reading is extremely low at 4.64. That is important: this is unlikely to become a race in which every prominent runner stops and the deepest closers sweep past.
Lady Gormire and Victor Cee should therefore have a tactical advantage, while Twirler and Harry Brown may need the leaders to go harder than projected.

Early-position evidence​

The available Epsom evidence strongly favours horses racing in the front half:

• Front-half runners supplied 81.25% of winners in the exact track-and-trip sample.
• Rear-quarter runners supplied only 6.25%.
• In comparable small fields, the front half supplied 75.00% of winners.
• The front-quarter win rate was 37.50%.

The sample is only medium-sized, so it should not be treated as an absolute rule. However, the broader six-furlong evidence also supports front-half runners.
This is a major positive for Lady Gormire and Victor Cee, a supporting positive for Elvetham, and a tactical negative for Twirler and Harry Brown.

Draw​

The draw evidence is mixed.
Recent figures favour stalls four and five, occupied by Lady Gormire and Victor Cee, while the longer-term evidence points more towards the lower stalls.
Because draw confidence is low, it should be treated as a tie-breaker rather than a decisive factor. The more important issue is whether each horse obtains an efficient position around the bend.

Main contenders​

Sugar Sugar​

Sugar Sugar comes out as the best overall combination of trainer support, finishing strength and current price.
Positives:

• Trainer-model rank 1
• Trainer-model probability 24.47%
• Combined forecast rank 2
• Combined forecast price 5.51
• Finish-strength rank 1
• Elite finishing score of 0.63
• Highest overall detailed-profile score at 1.21
• Current Betfair back price 6.20

Sugar Sugar is expected to race around fifth rather than at the rear. That gives the horse a realistic chance of staying within striking distance while Lady Gormire and Victor Cee establish the pace.
The concerns are that Sugar Sugar can race too freely and has hung under pressure. Jack Channon’s recent stable figures are also below expectation.
The low-collapse reading means George Bass cannot afford to drop too far behind. Sugar Sugar needs to track the leaders rather than rely on one dramatic late surge.
Verdict: The best betting option. Strongest late runner and the current Betfair price is slightly bigger than the combined forecast.

Lady Gormire​

Lady Gormire possesses the strongest straightforward tactical profile.
Positives:

• Likely leader
• Projected early rank 1
• Drawn 4 in the strongest recent draw zone
• AbilityPlus rank 2
• Combined forecast rank 1
• Combined forecast price 5.16
• Current Betfair back price 4.70

Lady Gormire should secure an excellent position and may control the race if settling properly. The low collapse reading is helpful because there is no expectation that the leader must stop.
The concern is that Lady Gormire can race too freely. Victor Cee and Mount Mogan are also close enough to prevent a completely uncontested lead.
The finishing profile is only average, ranking fifth in the field. Lady Gormire needs to conserve energy and obtain first run.
Verdict: The principal danger and most likely horse to travel strongly, but the Betfair price is slightly shorter than our forecast.

Victor Cee​

Victor Cee is the most interesting runner at a large price.
Positives:

• AbilityPlus rank 3
• Projected early rank 2
• Drawn 5 in the strongest recent draw zone
• Finish-strength rank 2
• Positive pace-and-finish blend
• AbilityPlus price 5.96
• Combined forecast price 8.73
• Current Betfair back price 21.00

Victor Cee should obtain an excellent prominent position and still has enough finishing strength to challenge Lady Gormire late. On pure race setup, this is arguably the strongest combination in the field.
The major negative is the trainer evidence. Victor Cee ranks last in the trainer model, with only a 3.47% trainer probability and a placement score of −57.60. Recent trainer figures are also well below expectation.
Victor Cee can race too freely, which could become costly if challenging Lady Gormire too aggressively early.
Verdict: Not reliable enough for the main bet, but the Betfair price of 21.00 is much larger than both rating-based forecasts. A legitimate small outsider play.

Twirler​

Twirler heads AbilityPlus:

• AbilityPlus rank 1
• V7 rating 62.18
• AbilityPlus price 4.99
• Combined forecast price 5.75
• Current Betfair back price 3.80

The concern is the projected race position. Twirler is expected to race sixth of seven, and the low collapse reading is unfavourable for a hold-up runner.
Twirler’s finishing profile is useful rather than exceptional, ranking fourth. The horse may also hang under pressure and could require luck in running.
Verdict: Clearly capable of winning, but the current Betfair price looks too short given the tactical disadvantage.

Elvetham​

Elvetham should not be dismissed completely because the horse may obtain a midfield-to-handy position from stall 1.
Positives:

• Trainer-model rank 3
• Trainer probability 16.83%
• Expected early position around fourth
• Current Betfair back price 5.00

However, the negative evidence is substantial:

• Combined forecast price 7.27
• AbilityPlus rank 5
• Finish-strength rank 7, last in the race
• Weak finishing score of 0.33
• Trainer form is a real negative
• Can start slowly
• Can hang under pressure
• Detailed-profile score −1.54

Elvetham may travel reasonably close to the pace, but the report suggests the horse could be vulnerable when the race develops inside the final furlong.
The screenshot shows £13.05 against Elvetham winning and a current £2.51 cash-out offer.
Verdict: The report does not support Elvetham as the main win position at a Betfair price of 5.00. I would protect the position rather than increase it.

Harry Brown​

Harry Brown has a positive finishing profile:

• Finish-strength rank 3
• Positive finishing score of 0.56
• Combined forecast price 9.60
• Current Betfair back price 9.40

The tactical problem is considerable. Harry Brown is projected last early and has previously missed the break. With such a low collapse reading, the leaders may remain too far ahead.
Verdict: The price is approximately fair, but the setup is unsuitable. Not a recommended bet.

Mount Mogan​

Mount Mogan should race prominently, but the horse ranks only sixth for finishing strength and carries a strong pace-versus-finish warning.
The trainer model is weak, and the horse may spend energy getting across from stall 6.
Verdict: Likely to be visible early but vulnerable late.

Recommendations​

Main win bet​

Sugar Sugar — Betfair back price 6.20
Sugar Sugar is the best combination of finishing strength, trainer-model support and available price. George Bass must keep the horse close enough because the pace is unlikely to collapse completely.

Small secondary bet​

Victor Cee — Betfair back price 21.00
A much riskier selection, but Victor Cee has the best pace-and-finish combination and should obtain an ideal position. Keep the stake considerably smaller because the trainer evidence is poor.

Main danger​

Lady Gormire — Betfair back price 4.70
Lady Gormire is the best tactical fit and may prove difficult to pass. The price is slightly short, so I would treat the horse as the main danger rather than the principal bet.

Existing Elvetham position​

I would cash out or lay Elvetham back, rather than leave the full position running.
Elvetham is only fifth on AbilityPlus, last for finishing strength and carries a genuine trainer-form negative. The current Betfair price of 5.00 is also shorter than the combined forecast of 7.27.

Final order​

1. Sugar Sugar — main bet
2. Lady Gormire — most likely tactical winner
3. Victor Cee — small value outsider
4. Twirler — respected but too short
5. Elvetham — oppose/protect existing profit

Single selection: Sugar Sugar.

 

[LongshotScott]

Cheers for the confidence boosters. I'll come here more often.

 

[DuckandDive]

Cheers all for the replies here.

gerry - Quite possible I am suffering from the betting having markets far more accurate. I will often narrow a race down to a few, go for who I think is best value and watch a shorter one win, or I'll have one I like but JUST a bit shorter than I want and they regularly win.

Sugar Sugar
Epsom · 20:25
15/2 2pt Win
Handicap debut for Jack Channon. I follow his newcomers 2TO as they improve hand over fist for debuts, but she was given a very easy time again, looked like getting left behind and then rallied for a very decent 2¼ 3rd of 6 (50/1), just a half length off of 2nd. She was given a far stronger ride on third start at Wolverhampton, ran 2nd around three lengths clear of 3rd but bumped into one well clear of her. Opening mark of 65 looks lenient.

The worm has turned! Well done.

 

[DuckandDive]

20:25 Epsom — full race overview​

6f Class 5 handicap | Good to firm | 7 runners
This is a tactically interesting sprint because the race contains several horses capable of racing close to the speed, but the evidence does not point to a complete pace collapse.
The strongest profile is likely to be a runner that can obtain a handy position, settle efficiently around Epsom’s turning track and still produce a finish.

​

Recommendations​

Main win bet​

Sugar Sugar — Betfair back price 6.20
Sugar Sugar is the best combination of finishing strength, trainer-model support and available price. George Bass must keep the horse close enough because the pace is unlikely to collapse completely.

Small secondary bet​

Victor Cee — Betfair back price 21.00
A much riskier selection, but Victor Cee has the best pace-and-finish combination and should obtain an ideal position. Keep the stake considerably smaller because the trainer evidence is poor.

Main danger​

Lady Gormire — Betfair back price 4.70
Lady Gormire is the best tactical fit and may prove difficult to pass. The price is slightly short, so I would treat the horse as the main danger rather than the principal bet.

Existing Elvetham position​

I would cash out or lay Elvetham back, rather than leave the full position running.
Elvetham is only fifth on AbilityPlus, last for finishing strength and carries a genuine trainer-form negative. The current Betfair price of 5.00 is also shorter than the combined forecast of 7.27.

Final order​

1. Sugar Sugar — main bet
2. Lady Gormire — most likely tactical winner
3. Victor Cee — small value outsider
4. Twirler — respected but too short
5. Elvetham — oppose/protect existing profit

Single selection: Sugar Sugar.

Well done

 

[tony spencer]

Well done

I nearly posted this I did this for someone.
Musical Soldier appears to be a non-runner, because the report had 11 runners and the Betfair market now shows 10. That removes one of the expected pace horses and makes the race more favourable to Oh So Perfect.

Revised race shape

The likely early group is now mainly:

Oh So Perfect
On Key
Yoko and The Spotlight Kid sitting just behind

Previously, Musical Soldier was expected to add pressure. Without it, Oh So Perfect has a better chance of getting a controlled prominent position rather than being involved in a proper pace battle.

That is important because Wolverhampton’s 7f evidence strongly favours the front half. In comparable fields, the front half supplied 70.77% of winners, while the rear quarter produced only 10.38%.

Oh So Perfect — Betfair back price 2.64

The market has strongly identified the tactical advantage.

Positives:

Likely leader or very prominent.
Strong front-half track fit.
Trainer in good recent form.
Projected early rank 2 in the original field.
Has sufficient finishing strength to remain dangerous.
The loss of Musical Soldier may allow an easier trip.

The report described Oh So Perfect as the best early-position setup fit and the strongest overall pace-and-finish blend among the prominent runners.

The issue is entirely the price. Our original combined forecast was 11.48, while the current Betfair back price is only 2.64. The original forecast clearly underestimated the tactical and market case, but 2.64 still asks you to accept a lot of risk in a Class 6 handicap.

Verdict: Most likely winner, but very short. I would not chase it at 2.64.

On Key — Betfair back price 6.60

On Key could challenge for the lead and has the strongest individual lead score in the report.

However:

Finish-strength rank 9.
Late score only 0.44.
Trainer model rank 9.
Can hang under pressure.
Vulnerable if taking Oh So Perfect on early.

The non-runner helps On Key tactically, but it also increases the chance that On Key and Oh So Perfect dominate the front. The danger is that On Key does the hard work and Oh So Perfect settles just outside or behind it.

Verdict: Could trade shorter in running, but I prefer Oh So Perfect of the two pace horses.

Midnight’s Dream — Betfair back price 8.00

Midnight’s Dream is the AbilityPlus leader and ranked first on the combined forecast.

Positives:

AbilityPlus rating 62.02.
Combined forecast price 7.58.
Trainer-model rank 2.
Current Betfair back price 8.00 is close to the model price.

Negatives:

Projected last or near last early.
Only seventh for finishing strength.
Slow-start risk.
Can race too freely.
Wolverhampton strongly penalises deep hold-up runners.

The weaker revised pace is a negative. Midnight’s Dream may be the best horse on raw ability but could simply be too far behind.

Verdict: Fairly priced, but not a strong tactical bet.

South Kensington — Betfair back price 10.50

South Kensington is the most interesting closer.

Positives:

AbilityPlus rank 2.
Finish-strength rank 1.
Elite late score of 0.70.
Combined forecast price 8.80.
Current Betfair back price 10.50.

Negatives:

Projected early rank 10.
Can start slowly.
Needs the leaders to come back.
Trainer’s recent figures are poor.
The removal of Musical Soldier reduces the expected pressure.

The Betfair snowflake suggests it has drifted, probably because the market believes the race will favour Oh So Perfect rather than the late runners.

Verdict: The price is acceptable on ability, but the revised race shape is less favourable. A smaller bet only.

Captain Pickles — Betfair back price 12.50

Captain Pickles ranks third on AbilityPlus and third for finishing strength.

It is another horse that can finish, but it is projected around ninth early and can be slowly away, free-going and prone to hanging.

The current price is slightly larger than the combined forecast of 11.17, but not enough to compensate fully for the positional risk.

Verdict: Respectable chance, but South Kensington has the stronger late profile.

Manton Road — Betfair back price 22.00

Manton Road is interesting at the bigger price:

Finish-strength rank 2.
Strong finishing score of 0.62.
Projected around seventh rather than right at the back.
Stable in strong recent form.
Combined forecast price 14.92.
Betfair back price 22.00.

The negatives are slow-start risk, possible hanging and a weak trainer-model rank. However, it may be positioned closer than South Kensington and Captain Pickles.

Verdict: Best outsider in the race. It needs On Key to pressure Oh So Perfect, but 22.00 compensates for that risk.

Mythical Isle — Betfair back price 21.00

Mythical Isle has a useful finishing profile and may sit around midfield. That gives it a more realistic route than the deepest closers.

However, the trainer model is very weak and the horse often requires luck in running.

Verdict: Not impossible, but Manton Road offers the stronger finishing profile.

The Spotlight Kid — Betfair back price 22.00

The Spotlight Kid should obtain a good early position from stall 1, but it ranks last for finishing strength with a score of only 0.33.

It could travel well and appear dangerous before weakening.

Verdict: Oppose for the win.

Market conclusion

The market is heavily betting the revised tactical picture:

Oh So Perfect has shortened and is the likely winner.
South Kensington has drifted because the reduced pace hurts its closing setup.
The market is also giving respect to Midnight’s Dream, despite its positional concern.

I agree with the market that Oh So Perfect has the clearest winning route, but 2.64 is too short for me in this grade.

Recommendations
Best win bet

Manton Road — Betfair back price 22.00

It is the best price relative to its finishing strength and should not be quite as far back as South Kensington. Keep the stake sensible because it still needs the leaders to weaken.

Safer alternative

South Kensington — Betfair back price 10.50

The strongest finisher and second on AbilityPlus, but the removal of Musical Soldier weakens the pace case.

Most likely winner

Oh So Perfect — Betfair back price 2.64

The revised race shape strongly favours it, but the price is too restrictive to recommend as the main bet.

Back-to-lay possibility

On Key — Betfair back price 6.60

Likely to race on or close to the lead and could shorten in running, but its weak finishing profile makes it vulnerable late.

Final order
Oh So Perfect — most likely winner
Manton Road — best price bet
South Kensington — strongest closer
Midnight’s Dream — best raw ability, poor setup

My betting choice would be Manton Road at 22.00, with a smaller saver on South Kensington at 10.50.

 

[Sullybomb]

Great shout T tony spencer

 

[Kraldrew]

Well done T tony spencer and DuckandDive