Betting Form - Fallen off a cliff

[LongshotScott]

Has anyone else experienced a prolonged nosedive in their betting over the last month or two, or am I experiencing a normal law of averages here? I had a very good start to the year, and have been betting long enough to know bad runs happen (especially as I tend to play longer odds), but more worrying for me has been how bad some of my more fancied bets have been running.

I've been involved with a few racehorses over the years, so aware heat can have an impact on them and we've had a prolonged and pronounced warmer period, but am I reaching here for an excuse? I've had longer losing runs, but I don't think I've had so many run so dismally.

I've got my own bit of crude bet log and can filter everything down (I guess I can't post a link to this being a newbie but it is findable from my profile), and the fact I've hit 33/1 and 10/1 winners (my only two from 58 bets) suggests I'm fortunate to be just -48pts down on the period.

If anyone is or has suffered similar fate over the last month or so, I'd love to hear your thoughts as to what your thinking. Or if anyone has anything to add to just give me a bit of hope!

Hi, btw... I'm Scott - Longtime punter who has somehow never ventured onto forums. Social Media was my haunt but in my time away it appears to have changed significantly. These forums can't be any more hostile than good old fashioned Twitter, right?

 

[ArkRoyal]

Welcome to the forum Scott, hope you enjoy your time here. The more you take part in the various discussions the more you we will get back.

 

[Outlander]

Has anyone else experienced a prolonged nosedive in their betting over the last month or two, or am I experiencing a normal law of averages here? I had a very good start to the year, and have been betting long enough to know bad runs happen (especially as I tend to play longer odds), but more worrying for me has been how bad some of my more fancied bets have been running.

I've been involved with a few racehorses over the years, so aware heat can have an impact on them and we've had a prolonged and pronounced warmer period, but am I reaching here for an excuse? I've had longer losing runs, but I don't think I've had so many run so dismally.

I've got my own bit of crude bet log and can filter everything down (I guess I can't post a link to this being a newbie but it is findable from my profile), and the fact I've hit 33/1 and 10/1 winners (my only two from 58 bets) suggests I'm fortunate to be just -48pts down on the period.

If anyone is or has suffered similar fate over the last month or so, I'd love to hear your thoughts as to what your thinking. Or if anyone has anything to add to just give me a bit of hope!

Hi, btw... I'm Scott - Longtime punter who has somehow never ventured onto forums. Social Media was my haunt but in my time away it appears to have changed significantly. These forums can't be any more hostile than good old fashioned Twitter, right?

Yes I am currently suffering from this also hardly had a winner since 1992, I feel your pain.
I think of my 34 year dry spell as just statistical noise and I’m expecting an upturn should be imminent.
Welcome to the forum.

 

[Sullybomb]

Welcome to the forum, LongshotScott and don't be too hard on yourself, this is far more likely to be variance than anything you've done wrong.

The key thing that jumps out is the average price of your selections. If you're consistently playing longer odds, then long, ugly losing runs aren't just possible, they're expected, even when you're betting well. At those prices, the winners are meant to be sparse so, a stretch of 56 losers from 58 with a couple of big-priced results carrying you isn't unusual at all. It's the nature of the game rather than a sign your judgement has fallen off a cliff.

The 33/1 and 10/1 landing is actually a decent illustration of the point: when your edge (if it's there) is spread across big-priced runners, your results will swing around wildly over samples this small. 58 bets simply isn't enough to tell you much either way IMO you'd need a far bigger sample before the numbers say anything reliable about your form.

One gentle word though from my own experience is that a rough run doesn't mean you're "due" each bet stands on its own, so it's worth staking to a level you're comfortable with whilst you're still on this downturn and not chasing it back. Keep the records you're already keeping, judge yourself on process over a big sample rather than the last month.

Hope that helps.

Cheers

Sul

 

[MySportsAI]

11% strike rate and a 48pt drop......relax

 

[DuckandDive]

Nice graphics Scott.

Assuming you're getting the value price(s) and that a 10/1 shot is really a 5/1 in disguise, it'll turn around and quickly stack up.

Some punters, me included, don't have the emotional strength to only back longshots. I will cover them, but include them with others that have my perception of value in the same race.