Basic VDW selections
- Thread starter Wizardry7
- Start date
taffman
Gelding
have had a look at these and have the same selections in a heinz & singles so you have no chance of winning today mate
Do you only use all aged handicaps ?
Have you tried non handicap (stakes races)?
Have you used it on a Saturday?
sorry about the questions but this has got me interested in the methodology & I want to keep it transparent for all interested rather than pms
Brian
Do you only use all aged handicaps ?
Have you tried non handicap (stakes races)?
Have you used it on a Saturday?
sorry about the questions but this has got me interested in the methodology & I want to keep it transparent for all interested rather than pms
Brian
Wizardry7
Filly
I do try to keep the number of bets down so just really stick to all age handicaps and don't always take a look or bet on the selections, it was just coming across this forum and seeing the interest in VDW that sparked my interest. I am sure there are filters that would help things along such as only wins for the ability from the last two or three years for example. I remember Advanced won a big race a few years back (Ayr Gold Cup?) and had a top ability rating forever after so was that one win so significant? I actually prefer lower grade races as a better ability rating can stand out more.
When I looked this morning, Outrageous Request was a non runner and taking the next down in that race from the Inform Racing ability and form would give Cool Baranca today at Perth 5.05 (just joint fifth named fav at 10/1 Racing Post). However I haven't added it to the list - watch it bolt up now!
I do not really want hundreds of bets, think 5 or 6 is ideal so it may be worth just picking the best 5/6 on lowest form figures or highest ability rating compared to today's race , or even shortest forecast price perhaps but sure as eggs are eggs the ones you leave out will all come in.
When I looked this morning, Outrageous Request was a non runner and taking the next down in that race from the Inform Racing ability and form would give Cool Baranca today at Perth 5.05 (just joint fifth named fav at 10/1 Racing Post). However I haven't added it to the list - watch it bolt up now!
I do not really want hundreds of bets, think 5 or 6 is ideal so it may be worth just picking the best 5/6 on lowest form figures or highest ability rating compared to today's race , or even shortest forecast price perhaps but sure as eggs are eggs the ones you leave out will all come in.
& cool baranca hosed in as well
Chesham
Sire
Hi Wizard
One Filter you could use to reduce selections and hopeful reduce the losing selections is to only select those that have won off a higher BHA Rating and today are racing off a Lower BHA Rating
Waahej Highest Winning BHA Rating 66 and BHA Rating Today 57
Mabait Highest Winning BHA Rating 108 and BHA Rating Today 87
These were the only two and both won and you would have eliminated the losing selections
Other Positive Factors
Mabait Highest Winning BHA Rating 108 and BHA Rating Today 87 Handicap Mark Of Top Weight = 95 Mabait down 9 Lbs in Class
Mabait Highest Winning BHA Rating 108 and BHA Rating Today 87 Handicap Mark Of Top Weight = 95 Mabait down 9 Lbs in (LTO Handicap Mark Of Top Weight = 104)
Waahej Highest Winning BHA Rating 66 and BHA Rating Today 57 Down In Class Handicap Mark Of Top Weight 60
(LTO Handicap mark of top weight 65 )
Good Luck
Chesham
Wizardry7
Filly
Thanks Chesham, yes another little filter would be good and something worth looking at but these things are difficult as you will miss some winners I think. I was looking at not using apprentice or amateur races as this would have eliminated Chant yesterday and Rockweiller from the day before. Also it maybe worth looking at if the horse is still one of the first five in the betting at the off, otherwise don't bet on it. I am sure this would prove profitable in the long term although some juicy bets would also be missed and one last thing to take into account would be the number of runners. What do you think?
thanks
nagwa
Colt
hi chesham, is this similiar to using the class ceiling horses have ran in thanks
Chesham
Sire
Hi Nagwa
Yes, although with some selections they are younger horses and going up in class so would be a different challenge.
With those racing below their class ceiling they have usually had a few races. Wizards excellent straight forward method, of using the basic Ability Rating - Consistency Rating + Inform Master Top 3 and Formcast Top 3 ) every one will have the same horse shortlisted. The next step might be to Separate the races where the horses is also dropping class from LTO and see how much they are dropping class and what their form was like that makes up those Consistency Figures.
Take Mabait for instance, plenty of races under his belt and had won a higher class race than yesterday off a higher BHA Rating
SANDOWN PARK Saturday, 24 April 2010 GOOD GOOD to FIRM
4.50 Poker at bet365.com Handicap (2) (Turf) 1m 14y
£9,970 0-100 (4yo+)
Handicap mark of top weight 100 (Mabait BHA Rating = 94)
Timeform Comment for the above race
On the whole this was ordinary for a class 2, but the point is Mabait would have won almost any handicap, continuing to improve way ahead of his mark; the pace steadied mid-race but no influence on the result. MABAIT's hat-trick at the end of last year turned out to be a mere taster, as he proved an entirely different proposition again on this comeback, looking potentially pattern class all of a sudden, but before then he'll have at least one big handicap on his agenda, the Hunt Cup the obvious target, and he's up to it judged on how much more he had in hand here, Fallon unusually quiet and confident on him, justified by Mabait's surge once let go; this was only his second start at the trip.
LTO Race For Mabait
CHESTER Saturday, 31 August 2013 GOOD
2.55 Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap (2) (Turf) 7f 122y
£45,000 (3yo+)
Handicap mark of top weight 104 (Mabait BHA Rating = 88)
Timeform Comment for the race
Quite a valuable prize but a lot of exposed old-timers made up the field and it hardly appeals as the strongest form for a 0-105; typically for this track the draw/position played its part, the first 3 coming from the lowest stalls. CLOCKMAKER (IRE) was fitter for Kempton just 3 days earlier and proved at least as good as ever to win at the second time of asking for this yard, admittedly with everything set up perfectly for him, having the plum draw at a track where he goes very well; tracked pace, travelled strongly, quickened to lead over 1f out, soon clear; a career-high mark beckons. BRAE HILL (IRE) ran creditably back in handicap company after claiming win; held up, headway under pressure over 2f out, stayed on, no impression on winner; should remain competitive now he's down the weights and isn't contesting the very top-end handicaps. ES QUE LOVE (IRE) turned out again quickly, typically gave running, like he has in some very competitive handicaps all summer, but his mark is no more than average at present; disputed lead, raced freely, headed over 1f out, one paced. MABAIT is notoriously hard to win with, not successful for over 3 years now, but he is on a handy mark for the day things fall right and was unlucky not to finish a lot closer here; dropped out, travelled smoothly, short of room 2f out, rapid headway entering straight, keeping on when hampered inside final 1f, one paced
Yesterdays Race
Handicap mark of top weight 95 (Mabait BHA Rating 87 one 1 Lb down from LTO and down 9 lbs in Class
Good Luck
Chesham
Yes, although with some selections they are younger horses and going up in class so would be a different challenge.
With those racing below their class ceiling they have usually had a few races. Wizards excellent straight forward method, of using the basic Ability Rating - Consistency Rating + Inform Master Top 3 and Formcast Top 3 ) every one will have the same horse shortlisted. The next step might be to Separate the races where the horses is also dropping class from LTO and see how much they are dropping class and what their form was like that makes up those Consistency Figures.
Take Mabait for instance, plenty of races under his belt and had won a higher class race than yesterday off a higher BHA Rating
SANDOWN PARK Saturday, 24 April 2010 GOOD GOOD to FIRM
4.50 Poker at bet365.com Handicap (2) (Turf) 1m 14y
£9,970 0-100 (4yo+)
Handicap mark of top weight 100 (Mabait BHA Rating = 94)
Timeform Comment for the above race
On the whole this was ordinary for a class 2, but the point is Mabait would have won almost any handicap, continuing to improve way ahead of his mark; the pace steadied mid-race but no influence on the result. MABAIT's hat-trick at the end of last year turned out to be a mere taster, as he proved an entirely different proposition again on this comeback, looking potentially pattern class all of a sudden, but before then he'll have at least one big handicap on his agenda, the Hunt Cup the obvious target, and he's up to it judged on how much more he had in hand here, Fallon unusually quiet and confident on him, justified by Mabait's surge once let go; this was only his second start at the trip.
LTO Race For Mabait
CHESTER Saturday, 31 August 2013 GOOD
2.55 Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap (2) (Turf) 7f 122y
£45,000 (3yo+)
Handicap mark of top weight 104 (Mabait BHA Rating = 88)
Timeform Comment for the race
Quite a valuable prize but a lot of exposed old-timers made up the field and it hardly appeals as the strongest form for a 0-105; typically for this track the draw/position played its part, the first 3 coming from the lowest stalls. CLOCKMAKER (IRE) was fitter for Kempton just 3 days earlier and proved at least as good as ever to win at the second time of asking for this yard, admittedly with everything set up perfectly for him, having the plum draw at a track where he goes very well; tracked pace, travelled strongly, quickened to lead over 1f out, soon clear; a career-high mark beckons. BRAE HILL (IRE) ran creditably back in handicap company after claiming win; held up, headway under pressure over 2f out, stayed on, no impression on winner; should remain competitive now he's down the weights and isn't contesting the very top-end handicaps. ES QUE LOVE (IRE) turned out again quickly, typically gave running, like he has in some very competitive handicaps all summer, but his mark is no more than average at present; disputed lead, raced freely, headed over 1f out, one paced. MABAIT is notoriously hard to win with, not successful for over 3 years now, but he is on a handy mark for the day things fall right and was unlucky not to finish a lot closer here; dropped out, travelled smoothly, short of room 2f out, rapid headway entering straight, keeping on when hampered inside final 1f, one paced
Yesterdays Race
Handicap mark of top weight 95 (Mabait BHA Rating 87 one 1 Lb down from LTO and down 9 lbs in Class
Good Luck
Chesham