quiet gambler
Yearling
Any of your bets please use this thread if you like.
I have chosen to try to evaluate the Norfolk National at Fakenham 4.38.
Such great form in this race and lots of runners from the Sussex National, 5 of them from that race. Havaila that took the Sussex National has took the Bet365 Gold Cup plus Sea Invasion 5th in the Sussex National, has won a race at Plumpton since. Form looking great. This race a treat.
Stans The Man, winner of the Norfolk National last year finished 2nd in the Sussex National, other runners Unanswered Prayers 4th, Tommie Beau 6th, Enjoy D'Allen 7th and Planned Paradise pulled up.
Unanswered Prayers is just 1lb better with Stans The Man and was beat by Stans The Man 12 and a half lengths, in the Sussex National. This 1lb better says that Unanswered Prayers is getting beat 11 and a half lengths by Stans The Man, at these weights.
Tommie Beau was 14 lengths behind Stans The Man, in the Sussex National. Tommie Beau was giving 2lb but now with help from conditional jockey Benjamin Macey claiming 5lb, Tommie Beau is now receiving 6lb from Stans The Man. Effectively Tommie Beau is 8lb better with Stans The Man for 14 lengths, in the Sussex National. I'm expecting Tommie Beau to get closer and 6 lengths behind Stans The Man, in this Norfolk National.
Enjoy D'Allen was 18 and a half lengths behind Stans The Man, in the Sussex National. Stans The Man was giving 15lbs to Enjoy D'Allen and runs again at same weights. Enjoy D'Allen is not getting any closer.
Planned Paradise running again but I think punching above his weight.
Lets take a look at that h'cap chase at Plumpton that my bet Sea Invasion won, April 19th.
Enjoy D'Allen finished 2nd and Northern Poet finished 4th. There are some formlines to look at, here.
Northern Poet giving 2lb, finished 5 lengths in rear of Sea Invasion. So at level weights should be 3 lengths behind Sea Invasion. Lets look at that Sussex National again that Sea Invasion was 5th in. Looking at collateral form, I have found that Stans The Man is 24 3/4 lengths better than Northern Poet, at level weights. This involves using Sea invasion, as a formline.
Northern Poet receives just 8lb from Stans The Man so I have Stans The Man 16 3/4 lengths in front of Northern Poet, at these weights.
Also in that h'cap chase at Plumpton I see Enjoy D'Allen has run a bit better than in the Sussex National and closer to Sea invasion than when they met, in the Sussex National. After adjusting the weights to level weights at 1lb a length, in the Sussex National Enjoy D'Allen would be 11 3/4 lengths behind Sea invasion, if they met at level weights.
In the h'cap chase at Plumpton that Sea invasion won and Enjoy D'Allen finished 2nd, after adjusting weights to level weights, Enjoy D'Allen finishes 6 and a half lengths behind Sea Invasion, at level weights. That says Enjoy D'Allen has run 5 and a quarter lengths better, than in the Sussex National. There is a suggestion Enjoy D'Allen never stayed, in the Sussex National. Even so, I'm saying Enjoy D'Allen could run 5 and a quarter lengths better than in the Sussex National, so I'm evaluating him finishing closer to Stans The Man in this Norfolk National, even though they meet at same weights again.
1st Stans The Man 11st 12lb
2nd 6l Tommie Beau 11st 6lb
3rd 5 1/2l Unanswered Prayers 11st 5lb
4th 1 3/4l Enjoy D'Allen 10st 11lb
5th 3 1/2l Northern Poet 11st 4lb
I have chosen to try to evaluate the Norfolk National at Fakenham 4.38.
Such great form in this race and lots of runners from the Sussex National, 5 of them from that race. Havaila that took the Sussex National has took the Bet365 Gold Cup plus Sea Invasion 5th in the Sussex National, has won a race at Plumpton since. Form looking great. This race a treat.
Stans The Man, winner of the Norfolk National last year finished 2nd in the Sussex National, other runners Unanswered Prayers 4th, Tommie Beau 6th, Enjoy D'Allen 7th and Planned Paradise pulled up.
Unanswered Prayers is just 1lb better with Stans The Man and was beat by Stans The Man 12 and a half lengths, in the Sussex National. This 1lb better says that Unanswered Prayers is getting beat 11 and a half lengths by Stans The Man, at these weights.
Tommie Beau was 14 lengths behind Stans The Man, in the Sussex National. Tommie Beau was giving 2lb but now with help from conditional jockey Benjamin Macey claiming 5lb, Tommie Beau is now receiving 6lb from Stans The Man. Effectively Tommie Beau is 8lb better with Stans The Man for 14 lengths, in the Sussex National. I'm expecting Tommie Beau to get closer and 6 lengths behind Stans The Man, in this Norfolk National.
Enjoy D'Allen was 18 and a half lengths behind Stans The Man, in the Sussex National. Stans The Man was giving 15lbs to Enjoy D'Allen and runs again at same weights. Enjoy D'Allen is not getting any closer.
Planned Paradise running again but I think punching above his weight.
Lets take a look at that h'cap chase at Plumpton that my bet Sea Invasion won, April 19th.
Enjoy D'Allen finished 2nd and Northern Poet finished 4th. There are some formlines to look at, here.
Northern Poet giving 2lb, finished 5 lengths in rear of Sea Invasion. So at level weights should be 3 lengths behind Sea Invasion. Lets look at that Sussex National again that Sea Invasion was 5th in. Looking at collateral form, I have found that Stans The Man is 24 3/4 lengths better than Northern Poet, at level weights. This involves using Sea invasion, as a formline.
Northern Poet receives just 8lb from Stans The Man so I have Stans The Man 16 3/4 lengths in front of Northern Poet, at these weights.
Also in that h'cap chase at Plumpton I see Enjoy D'Allen has run a bit better than in the Sussex National and closer to Sea invasion than when they met, in the Sussex National. After adjusting the weights to level weights at 1lb a length, in the Sussex National Enjoy D'Allen would be 11 3/4 lengths behind Sea invasion, if they met at level weights.
In the h'cap chase at Plumpton that Sea invasion won and Enjoy D'Allen finished 2nd, after adjusting weights to level weights, Enjoy D'Allen finishes 6 and a half lengths behind Sea Invasion, at level weights. That says Enjoy D'Allen has run 5 and a quarter lengths better, than in the Sussex National. There is a suggestion Enjoy D'Allen never stayed, in the Sussex National. Even so, I'm saying Enjoy D'Allen could run 5 and a quarter lengths better than in the Sussex National, so I'm evaluating him finishing closer to Stans The Man in this Norfolk National, even though they meet at same weights again.
1st Stans The Man 11st 12lb
2nd 6l Tommie Beau 11st 6lb
3rd 5 1/2l Unanswered Prayers 11st 5lb
4th 1 3/4l Enjoy D'Allen 10st 11lb
5th 3 1/2l Northern Poet 11st 4lb
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