• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Bad News For Bower ?

IMG_0640.jpeg

Chris Nash’s handicapping tendencies here. This is another classic example of the BHA failing to adjust for extreme pace dynamics, and you’ve correctly identified Corolla Point as the structural anchor of this Class 2 sprint.

By taking Corolla Point’s 2nd place finish completely at face value—raising his mark to 97 to exactly match his 97 Performance Figure—Nash created a rigid ceiling that mathematically punished the closers in a race run at an absolute scorcher of a pace.

Step 1: Tactical Front-End Mapping (Analiese Blueprint)​

The 5f track at Newcastle (Standard to Slow) was ridden at a blistering, lung-busting clip (Time Index: 8.9/10).

  • The Zero-Line: Canon's House blasted out of the stalls and established the zero-line with a flying 13.08s opening furlong. This suicidal 8.9/10 pace set the race up perfectly for the closers, creating a massive mathematical deficit for anyone who was held up early.
  • The Hidden Yardage (Pace/Position): On a 5f sprint scale, 0.167s = 1 length = 3 lbs.
    • Purosangue (5th): Bumped at the start and raced off the pace, clocking 13.75s early. He forfeited 0.67 seconds (4.01 lengths) to the leader. At 3 lbs per length, he spotted the field exactly +12.0 lbs.
    • Air Force One (3rd): Mid-field, clocking 13.71s. Forfeited 0.63s (3.77 lengths) = +11.3 lbs.
    • Kylian (8th): Raced off the pace, clocking 13.69s. Forfeited 0.61s (3.65 lengths) = +11.0 lbs.
    • Al Shabab Storm (1st): In touch, clocking 13.61s. Forfeited 0.53s (3.17 lengths) = +9.5 lbs.
    • Corolla Point (2nd) ⚓: Mid-field, clocking 13.60s. Forfeited 0.52s (3.11 lengths) = +9.3 lbs.
    • Vantheman (4th): Prominent, clocking 13.41s. Forfeited 0.33s (1.98 lengths) = +5.9 lbs.

Step 2: Benchmark Trap Identification​

Because Nash anchored Corolla Point exactly on 97, he was mathematically paralyzed.

  • Status: Complete Pace Blindness. The handicapper treated the late surges of Air Force One, Purosangue, and Kylian as standard form, completely ignoring the double-digit physical ground they made up against an 8.9/10 pace wall. Purosangue ran a 95 and was left on 95. Air Force One ran a 90 and was nudged to 91. The mathematical reality of the race shape was totally bypassed.

Revised Race Summary & Timeform Chart​

HorseTFRTfigBHA (Off / Perf / New)PR %CCR RatingHidden PenaltyGemini MarkFSP %True Adv
Al Shabab Storm1128898 / 102 / 102PendingPending+9.5 lbs (Pace)107.599.63%+5.5 lbs
🔵 Corolla Point⚓107+8394 / 97 / 97PendingPending+9.3 lbs (Pace)106.3100.86%+9.3 lbs
 
MySportsAI said:
Hi The pace of the race will effect the overall time even in a 5f race I would wait until the sectionals are available before deciding whether Mi Mi ran better than class. With regard to overall times and RP speed figures the latter do show a linear increase in value of average SF as you rise in class so yes class 2 horses tend to run higher SFs than class 6. If I was you I would inspect the sectionals compare them to pars if you have them and do the same for final SFs. Mi Mi has 2 entries on August 7th
Click to expand...
I might have confused you MySportsAI MySportsAI the MI MI race was the newc run 26th june.

1785671479142.png
 
IMG_0641.jpeg
The RaceIQ telemetry provides a definitive, astonishing answer: Her Kinematic Yield took a massive leap forward.


In her Newcastle win a month ago, she generated a 2.98 Kinematic Yield with a 7.54m average stride. Yesterday, she stretched out to a 7.83m average stride, pushing her Kinematic Yield up to 3.20, while clocking the second-highest top speed in the field (44.43 MPH). Iain Jardine has completely unlocked this mare's mechanics. She didn't just win tactically; she overpowered them physically.
 
So, are we saying that these two horses are of similar ability, pace wise, even though miles apart in class?
 
Watching the 2 races in sync there is little difference and to muddy the waters further a placed horse has run well in higher company from both races so one can hardly say one race had better than class and the other lower. My feelings are that the pace was a tad hotter in the higher class race and they may have paid later but what does this leave you with. Well my first thoughts would be to look at max early pace from a horse over 5f, in other words looking at historical form for 5f is it better to assess horses on early pace only as its not hostage to prior pace. Of course not all races will be run true but if you can construct accurate meaningful pars it may well identify a collection of horses that are faster than par. You don't need to assess all races and all horses remember you only need to find a collection that are better than class X
 
Leodis said:
So, are we saying that these two horses are of similar ability, pace wise, even though miles apart in class?
Click to expand...
I think common sense tells us that can't be the case Leodis Leodis but in my opinion if not allready got this across properly the two races when you take a closer look at all the sectionals of all the horses suggest to me at least that for whatever reason didn't demonstrate a clear enough distance in class ie cl2 & cl5
Why ?
On balance the first furlong in the cl2 race was a bit too quick and the winner AL SHABAB then did 10.39 2ndf, my best guess therefore is he was out of his comfort zone or ran uneconomacally (if that's a word), so what's the point to all of this you might ask ?
I believe it's nowhere near enough to just watch a replay, note the final time or any other factor you want to mention without taking note of the sectionals which help you understand what happened.

MI MI i believe did enough in that race to suggest she had for whatever reason found some improvement at 5yr old, she went up 4lbs for that i noticed all this after i backed against her (traded out ) lat night when she won again this time on turf going good so probably improved again.

That's all !!
 
MySportsAI said:
Watching the 2 races in sync there is little difference and to muddy the waters further a placed horse has run well in higher company from both races so one can hardly say one race had better than class and the other lower. My feelings are that the pace was a tad hotter in the higher class race and they may have paid later but what does this leave you with. Well my first thoughts would be to look at max early pace from a horse over 5f, in other words looking at historical form for 5f is it better to assess horses on early pace only as its not hostage to prior pace. Of course not all races will be run true but if you can construct accurate meaningful pars it may well identify a collection of horses that are faster than par. You don't need to assess all races and all horses remember you only need to find a collection that are better than class X
Click to expand...
MySportsAI MySportsAI
My understanding is that the colour coding used by ATR is based around the "par"
 
tacker said:
MySportsAI MySportsAI
My understanding is that the colour coding used by ATR is based around the "par"
Click to expand...
Thats right but it only shows you whether they went faster than par/average, what would be interesting is to know by how much. A starting point might be to check the overall record post race of horses that led or were prominent over 5f in races faster than par which you can get from ATR. These are at least quick animals for the class, whether its a sufficient filter ?
 
MySportsAI said:
Thats right but it only shows you whether they went faster than par/average, what would be interesting is to know by how much. A starting point might be to check the overall record post race of horses that led or were prominent over 5f in races faster than par which you can get from ATR. These are at least quick animals for the class, whether its a sufficient filter ?
Click to expand...
Okay but what's the green mean then ?
I suppose the ideal would if they put the par numbers in the top corner or wherever.
Recall AI telling me it can produce a more accurate chart than ATR but it wanted to get too techi.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top