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Backdated Over 1.50 goals system.

Delboy99

Delboy99

Sire
I'm sure that a good while back when surfing through old threads, I came across an old relic relating to over 1.50 goals and I seem to believe it was penned by Ark Royal. I cannot seem to locate it anywhere in the old records, so I am totally unsure at this point if my facts are right. If this is so, I would like to ask the question if the system was decent enough to follow, and if any profit was made? It actually made reference to other sites, Bet Explorer, Statarea and Footyresults.co.uk and strangely enough I have a copy which I must have printed off of the whole system some time ago. Can you confirm this AR or am I barking up the wrong tree?:doh:
 
In the absence of a reply I suppose that I must have got a hold of the wrong end of the stick.Sorry if I have have caused you any problems.Will take this as a 'no'.
 
Delboy99 Delboy99 I have only just seen this. If you put an @ before a users name then they will get an alert that they have been mentioned in a thread.

I don't remember posting about an over 1.5 system but it is possible. I will have a search to see if I can find anything.
 
...... ah! Learned a valuable lesson there. Was not aware of the alert taking place. Thanks for the info.:handgestures-thumbup:
 
I did mention in the recent past that I did an O 1.5 goals thing, though it wasn't very detailed and while I did use some particular websites for reference they weren't the ones you mentioned. As I'm sure I've also mentioned before on other threads, I pick the vast majority of my football bets based purely on goal predictions, and will often use O 1.5 and U 3.5 goal markets as an insurance to riskier bets like the U/O 2.5 goals.
Strangely enough, I'm following Footy Trader Footy Trader's O 2.5 thread, but I'm personally not comfortable with the fact that his picks are from traditionally low-scoring leagues. While this will clearly offer him high odds, and he seems to have something worthwhile in his pocket to work out the picks he posts, I have so far only put on O 1.5 goal bets on his picks (and only when they reach 1.4 odds in-play - thanks to BA again :D !). This looks to have given me a much higher success rate and more profit than has been shown in his thread (sorry Footy Trader).
Footy Trader Footy Trader - just a suggestion and if you can do it... perhaps you should consider putting an O 1.5 goal bet on in-play as I do (or even maybe at the same time as the O 2.5) and see what the difference is. I would also suggest to make the winnings return cover the cost of the O 2.5 bet ?
 
Footy Trader Footy Trader - just a suggestion and if you can do it... perhaps you should consider putting an O 1.5 goal bet on in-play as I do (or even maybe at the same time as the O 2.5) and see what the difference is. I would also suggest to make the winnings return cover the cost of the O 2.5 bet ?

paulb164 paulb164.... You've read my mind.... As it's a very quiet weekend for football, I am running over the last 6 years of results to see how your proposal pans out. Hopefully I'll have a PL by the end of the weekend showing how well it has performed. Must admit, that over the last few years alot of the losing bets that I have had, have had 2 goals scored..... Will hopefully update the results soon.
 
paulb164 said:
perhaps you should consider putting an O 1.5 goal bet on in-play as I do (or even maybe at the same time as the O 2.5) and see what the difference is. I would also suggest to make the winnings return cover the cost of the O 2.5 bet ?
Click to expand...

Putting a bet on the O1.5 to cover the cost of the O2.5 is way above my risk threshold.

eg, If I placed a 1 pt bet on O2.5 @ odds of 2.00 then the O1.5 price would be sitting around 1.30 ish. So that would mean placing a 3+ pt bet on the O1.5 to cover the O2.5. Happy days if 3+ goals are scored but a 4+ pt loss if only 1 were to be scored.
 
paulb164 paulb164.... You've read my mind.... As it's a very quiet weekend for football, I am running over the last 6 years of results to see how your proposal pans out. Hopefully I'll have a PL by the end of the weekend showing how well it has performed. Must admit, that over the last few years alot of the losing bets that I have had, have had 2 goals scored..... Will hopefully update the results soon.
[/QUOTE]

I have had a good look over the last 6 years and I'd say the the outcome is looking positive. Obviously I've only got the O2.5 odds to go by but I've taken an average of what the O1.5 odds would / should be.... Probably erring on the safe side.

As a trial, I'm going to set up my Bot to place an O1.5 bet (small stakes) 10 mins into the match and see how results pan out.
 
Footy Trader said:
As a trial, I'm going to set up my Bot to place an O 1.5 bet (small stakes) 10 mins into the match and see how results pan out.
Click to expand...
I'm currently using the O 1.5 goals automation to place a bet on at 1.4 regardless of when during the match it gets taken - over many years I have experimented on various odds entry, and it seems to work best at 1.4 for me (also an additional bet at HT if it's 0-0... odds at that point tend to be over evens). That's not to say you should try that as well, as your games I think will have a lower expectation of goals considering your picks are often from lower-scoring leagues than the ones I would pick from.
For my strategies, depending on the expectation of the match, it usually places around 15 mins. The game yesterday on my 2.5 goal trial thread I felt would hit 2+ goals despite the trial recommending U 2.5 goals, and I guess the expectation meant that the bet was picked up almost immediately it went in-play at a whopping 1.59. 1.5 might be a good entry point for your picks - you would only need to hit a little over 50% to break even (also accounting for the BF commission).
 
paulb164 said:
commission notwithstanding, why would you need to win 2/3rds of your beats to break even if the odds are 1.5 (i.e. 50% of stake returned if won) ?
Click to expand...

If you had 100 bets @ 1.5 and won 50 of them, you would be minus 25 pts (+25 pts for the wins and -50 pts for the losses)

If you won 67 of them you would be break even (+33.5 pts for the wins and -33 pts for the losses)
 
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Of course it is... I stand corrected. You'd have to be betting at evens for a 50% hit rate to break even.

Sorry - not thinking straight - I got no sleep through the night :crazy:
 
...... never did find out who the author was of this system I picked up from here some time ago. Still cloaked in mystery apparently. :eek:
 
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