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Average OR

hedgehog

hedgehog

Dam
I've started to have a little look at this idea and for the 1.50 hexham tomorrow have

Horse/or/average/difference/ estimated odds/current odds
Onderun/100/99.83/+0.17/10-3/9-1
Dick Darsie/94/96.33/-2.33/11-2/6-1
Inchcolm/90/82.17/+7.83/2-1/7-4 won 5/4f
Alto des mottes/87/96.83/-9.83/79-1/9-4
Cranbrook causeway/86/90.67/-4.67/10-1/13-2
McGinty dream/74/76.50/-2.50/11-2/10-1 2nd 9/1

Now I'm not sure which way to read this. Inchcolm is the obvious improver and alto des mottes has the better back form.

Can I ask how do you convert plus and minus figures into a set of odds?

I'll not be doing this regularly, I'm just playing because the soaps are on.

Good luck tomorrow
 
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I've managed to knock up a spreadsheet to get estimated odds based on the normal curve. I've added these to the above, seems onderun, dick Darsie and McGinty dream are the value horses.

It will be interesting to know the result

Good luck today
 
Hello J JamesSmith, I can't claim to be the originator of this idea as I found it on the web but it is an interesting start. If I have the time I'll try another little race tomorrow

Good luck this evening
 
Hi hedgehog hedgehog

The second is the average of the OR for the last 6 runs and bet if the horse's OR is less than the average.

Inchcolm's average OR in the 1:50 Hexham has increased not reduced

All the best

Winnersforu
 
Hello winnersforu winnersforu,

I'm still trying to understand this idea but it was so nearly won by a value horse.

Chelmsford 6.45
Horse/or/difference/estimated odds//current odds
Mythical madness/97/+0.67/4-1//7-2
Firmament/96/-2.17/7-1//9-4
Calling out/95/-4.50/12-1//11-1
Azzeccagarbugli/93/-4.20/11-1//11-4
Contrast/92/-0.5/5-1//14-1 value
Pure shores/80/+10.67/15-8//5-1 value

We'll see how that goes. Pure shores is the improver, calling out and azzeccagarbugli have the back form.

Good luck tomorrow
 
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Hi hedgehog hedgehog ,
im playing around using OR and deviation from the median to gauge class.
i also use odds v ratings to create a diff fig.
As for being any help in forecasting a race i dont have enough date recorded yet.
 
Hello Ferdy Ferdy and @sean clark,

Once I'd knocked together the spreadsheet it's just a matter of banging in the data and reading the results. If this thread becomes popular I'll make the spreadsheet available but it's written in Google sheets so not sure how it will perform as excel.

I'm still trying to understand the idea myself, it could so easily be rubbish.

I've updated the current odds and contrast and pure shores are value

Good luck today
 
Well in that race a horse with back form won and became value. Still not enough examples to know how to use this

Good luck this evening
 
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Hello all,

A little race for tomorrow

Doncaster 1.45
Horse/or/difference/estimated odds//current odds
Charming zen/136/-1.5/13-2//nr
Canyon city/131/+10.83/7-5//15-8 value//2nd 6/4f
Card game/129/+0.17/9-2//9-1 value
Kk lexion/126/-2.67/9-1//7-2
Golden Jeffrey/120/-0.17/5-1//5-4//won 13/8

Canyon city is the improver, kk lexion has the back form


Good luck tomorrow
 
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Hello pawras pawras,

No I'd not thought of average weight, it's an interesting idea, I'll put it on the back burner at the moment but it deserves attention so I'll try it out at a later date. Thanks for the idea.

I've updated the current odds for today's race and canyon city and card game are value at this point

Good luck today
 
Just for you T THE WORLDWIDE WORD

Cheltenham 1.20 15.12.18
Horse/or/difference/estimated odds//current odds//result
Ozzie the Oscar/153/+5.67/4-1//10-3//wonwon 11/4
Theinval/150/+6.50/7-2//8-1 value
Bun doran/148/+9.17/11-4//5-2//2nd 5/4f
Top gamble/146/-5.67/97-1//6-1
Hell's kitchen/143/+2.50/7-1//3-1
Yorkist/138/+4.67/9-2//9-1 value

This was updated then the updates disappeared, not sure what happened there

Good luck tomorrow
 
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hedgehog said:
Just for you T THE WORLDWIDE WORD

Cheltenham 1.20 15.12.18
Horse/or/difference/estimated odds
Ozzie the Oscar/153/+5.67/4-1
Theinval/150/+6.50/7-2
Bun doran/148/+9.17/11-4
Top gamble/146/-5.67/97-1
Hell's kitchen/143/+2.50/7-1
Yorkist/138/+4.67/9-2
Click to expand...
Thank you and I look forward to see it tomorrow... I will apply your or/RPR/cr to this race also
 
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Hello all,

Carlisle 3.00
Horse/or/difference/estimated odds/current odds
Samstown/124/-12.00/39-1/22-1
Chef d'oeuvre/120/-5.33/7-1/7-2
Lough derg farmer/117/-8.50/14-1/11-4 2nd 11/4jf
Kilcullen flem/116/+1.33/3-1/5-2
Kilbree chief/113/-8.17/13-1/16-1 value
Nakadam/107/-0.67/7-2/8-1 value won 10/1
Lowanbehold/106/+2.83/11-4/5-1 value

Samstown has the back form, lowanbehold and kilcullen flem are the improvers. Looking at the limited selection of past races I think this will go to an improver.

Good luck today
 
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