Anywhere open

[mick]

Maybe (humour me a moment)it is possible that with better working knowledge it is possible to venture further from the fixed points we were given to start from,hence why some do not see the relevance of something that another finds so obvious(in thier opinion I mean).

Over the years of being involve with this subject I have learnt how some examples worked for myself but,there have been others that I could not until given a pointer by someone with more experience than me,the hard part for me was dropping what I belived to be correct in favour of something I did not yet fully understand,and there are some I still don't.

Well said and very true but the same applies to whatever means we use VDW or other.I constantly monitor and think about what i am doing and how i can improve it even when getting things well right on balance.Reason and Relevance and an open mind all aid progress imo.

 

[Bobajobber]

The probables as you call them are just a measurement of form

I only call them the probables as VDW did and it just makes it easier so everyone knows what I'm talking about. It maybe a measurement of form for you, but it isn't mentioned when VDW gave his ideas of what to look for when judging form. I prefer to use things that are clearly mentioned.

Measurement or Judging...........You decide?

Measurement = A system of measures based on a particular standard (Logical)

Judging = To form a judgement or opinion (Mainly Personal Opinion)
Simon Cowell is classed as a judge and we have seen some of the rubbish he churns out.
Didn't VDW tell us that it had to be cold unemotional logic and to avoid personal opinion, nuff said.

I have this belief that you believe they are some sort of ultimate conclusion, like magic numbers, they are not, surely the horses coming from the best form are the ones to keep your focus on.

I have tried to explain exactly what I think the probables are, they are another way/method of judging form, and they are not the ultimate conclusion and I have said they play second fiddle to the ability rating. In as much as the best probable will struggle to beat the best on ability. If anyone is suggesting they are magic numbers I would have to look at you. I read your posts and you appear to be saying Prominent King has stronger form than Beacon light when BL has the much stronger AR and probable/Erin figures. Like wise with Son Of Love how/why is he the selection over Niniski when N has a far better AR and as far as I can see meets your probable requirements. That is without "juggling" and working on the last race, if it is ok to miss races out looking for the best for why wasn't Decent Fellows last run given a miss?

Considering you do not use the AR, then they are playing second fiddle to nothing.
There is no doubting PK giving weight to a horse being dropped from a massive class and then turning up in the Erin with a weight turn around, how you can easily dismiss many elements is beyond me.

Niniski , yes your right he did have the traits, well done, but he was untried at the distance, in the St Leger he carried 13lb more than LTO, in the LTO he gave 17lb (WFA included) to the 2nd M-Lolshan who came from £3168 race, albeit the same horse ran in the King George VI and QEII Diamond Stakes prior to that generally the Class of races these horses ran in were nowhere near SOL's, I note that NINISKI was tried at 1m7F in 1980 and once again failed, VDW showed us what to do when tackling distance in Systematic Betting, he also explained that horses would be tried at the distances they will eventually compete, he even went as far as to tell us they will be pushed up and then dropped to collect, ignoring what is written is generally your own issue.

Decent Fellow similar distance, similar going,cold unemotional logic,...Ruled Out!.

One man's opinion Forecast V SP many peoples opinion, surely when seeing it like this it makes more sense.

Forecast = opinion based on ranking the form in preference, based on facts known/available to all.
SP = manipulated facts often based on outside influences that at times have NOTHING to do with the actual form of any of the horses. I.E laying off doubles trebles based on jockey and or trainer form, lemming following tipsters of the day, and other irrelevant ideas.

Be Lucky[/QUOTE]

Personally from this,it tells me how little you know of the bookmaker game, but that may just be because I was brought up by one, I will just say, you are way off kilter with this opinion.

B

 

[Chesham]

Hi Bobajobber



It's A Steal who won today, is building some nice numbers up over the last two runs including today's run

 

[mtoto]

Measurement or Judging...........You decide?

I can see no point in splitting hair as I have NO doubt that you and everyone else knows what I mean. Just in case there is any doubt this is what I was referring to. VDW words and if you want to call it personal opinion fair enough but it is VDW's personal opinion he said ................ To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the
respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important, how they performed in the later stages of each race. I have highlighted the piece I think is important but I can;t find anything about SP's or markets, to highlight.

Study = to give much careful or critical thought to.

Considering you do not use the AR, then they are playing second fiddle to nothing.

Again I have explained why I don't use the AR but are you really saying VDW didn't use s/f when looking at ability? I also find it very hard to believe you can only think he used it when formulating lists, if so that leaves two important questions to answer. 1, why is that form good enough for list that are used to find and back selections? Two what does this mean then ................ All of these horses showed improvement in higher class, which was noted by their speed figure, before visiting the winner's enclosure when next dropped in class. This is a viable method of evaluating EXPOSED form. It does require time and dedication and it is also useful to make a list of horses which mark their own card but remember it does not stop there.

Niniski , yes your right he did have the traits, well done, but he was untried at the distance,

As I said before you wrote the above, VDW did give selections who hadn't run over the distance before, so why is it an eliminating matter here ? You make much of me not using the AR but like the Erin the selection is well down the AR rankings. 7th in the case of PK and 9th for SOL.

Decent Fellow similar distance, similar going,cold unemotional logic,...Ruled Out!.

Cold unemotional logic tells me they wouldn't have wanted Decent Fellow to finish close to the current champion hurdler with a pot of only £2,233 on offer

Personally from this,it tells me how little you know of the bookmaker game.

That's as maybe but there again I have learned enough to still be in the game and making a profit. I was brought up by a wonderful cook but my cooking's crap.

Be Lucky

 

[Bobajobber]

mtoto

Rather than letting this just string out into a tennis match of opinions, let me see if I can draw some lines under what was has been mentioned
I tripped you up a little there with Niniski, he won a the Irish St Leger 1m6F on Yielding directly after the GB one and 1m7.5F race at Longchamp on Soft ground, he is clearly a horse that needs to get his toe in, personally I thought the going was against the horse at Doncaster and I thought you would of checked that, Son Of Love proven at the distance and the going, it is clearly shown above.
You are also missing the point that VDW told us why Son of Love was the one to back, even without an AR rating

It is not difficult to work out horses optimum distances, many hours following horses and studying the breeding lends a hand.
Kings Theatre horses are a great yardstick for 2m4F, Presenting 3m although a couple of furlongs either side is easily accounted for, time spent in this area of expertise never go to waste, you can literally split the field of middle distance field by extracting the sprint bred stayers and keeping those that carry the stamina in both lines,it does not work all the time,but enough to make a few quid at the right prices, but this is as mentioned time spent, I find it difficult for those following horse racing seriously who have never looked in this area.
And as Chesham keeps reminding us to keep an eye on the Dam's line, there is a little gold mine for those willing to take up the task, but personally it should run hand in hand with your form reading.

mtoto
What I do not get is your need to question everything, even after the fact, you do not get why PK's form was better than BL, yet the answer is there in black and white showing the final result of the Erin, its almost like your line of questioning is trying to find out why a horse should not beat another horse.
The result is final, you cannot change it no matter how much you disagree, so you line of questioning would be to find out why horse A was beat by horse B and rather than why horse B should not beat horse A.
It has been said time and time again, if VDW said he never said anything for the sake of it, then you should take that as gospel, if he says horse A is a non form horse, it is down you to find out why.

The time/merit rating has been explained before, VDW told us it is for horses that had not achieved an AR, but this is something you have not thought about.
VDW tells us that all the better horses come out late in the season, some do not even run and if they do, they may not be pushed hard, so even if they have won, the AR rating has not been created without really seeing the true potential of the horse, the clock will show potential, some of these horses will be running good races without winning, but still gaining good speed figures, so what better way to identify future winners in young uns.
I personally do not believe it is a class rating, although the better rating is achieved in better class races, I think it is good in regards to see potential ability in horses, I think it is a little deceiving to assume it identifies class.

Not sure what you are suggesting about Decent Fellow ad Night Nurse, unless you are suggesting a little skullduggery in keeping DF away from the winner in case it affected his odds
This is clearly not right, DF was walloped by NN in the Champion Hurdle, so it would of been a pointless exercise, DF never showed up again in the CH, which tells its own story.
It is interesting the previous year 1977 in the Truimph Hurdle that Decent Fellow finished 2nd to Meladon, it is also interesting if you look at both of those horses LTO races and the traits as already mention are apparent.

Finally,
"I was brought up by a wonderful cook but my cooking's crap."
You must be reading the cookbook like your form books, you have to follow the instructions that are given, not take one piece and then leave another and then change that to something else, until finally it kind of looks like it, but does not quite taste like it.
"Being given a list of ingredients to bake a cake will not make a super cook of you. There is an art and feel about culinary expertise just as there is with punting and many other things"

B

 

[Chesham]

Bobajobber & mtoto

It as you say Boba if the form reading is not there or the capability issues not fully researched, then forget the discussion about Ability Rating in the Traditional sense or the To Agori Mou example of using Speed Figs for a horse who has not achieved a higher Ability Rating it have potential too based on the Clock, (Mtoto, Not sure that Split Second these days is the best Clocker though and totally worthless in NH Racing as I have explained earlier, becuase of the changes to the starting rules, in respect of the Starters Flag goes down and the clock starts. I watch Racing UK and Atr every day and sometimes there are many seconds between runners crossing where the starting tape was released. To compensate I suspect that the going allowances are adjusted rather than change the clocking system for NH Racing. At Least Timeform are experimenting using Goggle Eearth to accurately measure between fences and look at sectional times from that data) Perhaps one day they may produce speed figs for NH on this basis, but they do use the data when deciding on the Timeform Handicap. )

You have both answered DBMB call that there is someone out there and we will have to await the Race that he chooses on Saturday and his VDW analysis of that chosen race. I have looked at his list of horses that he may or may not back today and have seen that strategy used before and hope that with DBMB he is different and it is not going to be a case of when racing finishes, I only backed theses from the list.

 

[mick]

One interesting and positive aspect raised above is the use of breeding stats.Back in the day seldom mentioned apart from the Classic or group races.Perhaps its down to the data base search engines now available but i never thought i would be checking the pedigree of a 5yo handicapper contesting a 0-70 yet i now do so and am pleased to. Often questions RE dist and going can be supported or answered using these stats.

 

[DBMB]

Not sure why I deserved that comment but hey ho.

No I will not claim an aftertimed winner and I will say again I am not even comfortable discussing a race on a forum where I did not enter discussion pre race.I hope this clears things up and clearly states my position on this subject.

I will however go back over my short list POST race to see if there is any reason to believe I should have done something differently.I will then apply any said assumptions to past records to see if it holds water.This is the process I have been using in an effort to move forward with my understanding of the method in question.

Boba and Mtoto I have been enjoying reading your posts by the way,very informative.

 

[nagwa]

great posts bobajobber, mtoto, chesham you chaps are ahead of the field..

 

[mick]

HI DBMD Well done for starting what is proving to be an interesting and active thread.

 

[mtoto]

I tripped you up a little there with Niniski, he won a the Irish St Leger 1m6F on Yielding directly after the GB one and 1m7.5F race at Longchamp on Soft ground, he is clearly a horse that needs to get his toe in, personally I thought the going was against the horse at Doncaster and I thought you would of checked that, Son Of Love proven at the distance and the going, it is clearly shown above.

Bobba,

A couple of points relating to the above, first just because I answered your direct point re the distance I can't understand why you think I hadn't looked at the going. Second have to say I find it strange you came to the conclusion that Niniski needed to get his toe in based on the four runs he had had before the Leger, Yes he had won a maiden on good to soft but his best form was on good going.

And as @Chesham keeps reminding us to keep an eye on the Dam's line, there is a little gold mine for those willing to take up the task, but personally it should run hand in hand with your form reading.

My thinking here is quite simple. The trainer should know as much about pedigrees and more importantly the actual horse than most pundits/experts so why not trust him? So again it is a bit of an assumption the this is being ignored, but I think a good trainer will see past the obvious and try to do the thing that has the best financial result. Ok perhaps at times I do look for thing that may not be there but at the prices I work at I can take a few chances.

What I do not get is your need to question everything, even after the fact, you do not get why PK's form was better than BL

Again have to say its your thinking/understanding that is giving me the problem. I have no problem with PK's form. The problem I have is the thinking that says his form from his LAST race was better than BL's I have figures that make PK the joint best horse class wise in the race figures that put PK above Sea Pigeon and most other top hurdlers of the era. So I have no problem with his overall form. I agree the result is final but the trick is finding the answer before the off. Not sure why you brought none form horses into the discussion at this point and I can't remember ever disagreeing when VDW actually said a horse was a none form horse.

The time/merit rating has been explained before, VDW told us it is for horses that had not achieved an AR

Again I think this is an assumption as To-Agori-Mou did have an AR, the problem is the AR didn't accurately measure his ability. But how were we to know that without the use of the speed merit figures? As I tried to point out VDW also said speed could be used to evaluate exposed form he also said s/f could be used to establish proven ability in horse that had at least TWO wins in the previous season AR's were not mentioned in either of these articles . So yes I think I am taking notice and digesting the idea VDW didn't say anything just for the sake of it.

Not sure what you are suggesting about Decent Fellow ad Night Nurse

I thought that would have been obvious to someone with your knowledge of horse racing. Decent Fellow and shown at best he was a handicapper a fair/good class handicapper but he struggled against the very best. Why ruin his OR by running close the the champion for poor pot? The race was a prep and bore no reflection on his true ability, if I was looking for good form using your method I would have gone back to his win.

Chesham,

I have noted your concerns and will keep an eye on the figures being returned. However to be honest I haven't really noticed any major differences in the starts of the "bigger" races and these are the ones the important figures come from. Occasionally a lower class race will return figures good enough to warrant an entry on the d/base but as I only work the better races these horse seldom appear high in the rankings.

Do you really think the starts are that much worse I can remember form way back horse appearing to just be walking after the tapes had go up, I seem to remember Master Mind winning one such race with a very poor s/f,

Be Lucky

 

[mlmrob]

“Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, today is a gift of God, which is why we call it the present.”

Yet in VDW terms, Yesterday is a mystery, today is a mystery and tomorrow is a mystery

I prefer Gandhi's take on it anyway

“The future depends on what you do today.”

Good luck guys, I wish you all well and I hope the debate can continue.

 

[mick]

“Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, today is a gift of God, which is why we call it the present.”

Hi Rob what a delightful quote thanks for sharing and helping to remind us that racing or otherwise we should all appreciate the gift of Now.

 

[Chesham]

Hi mtoto

https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Articles/Rowleyfile_investigates_What_is_going_on_at_Wetherby

 

[mtoto]

Chesham,

Thanks for that I had read that there had been a problem with the distances at Wetherby. Can I ask did/have the s/f compilers gone back and adjusted the figures? I ask because the figures I have for the Charlie Hall are nothing out of the ordinary. For sometime now I have treated the figures from Haydock with some suspicion and try not to use them.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Chesham,

Thanks for that I had read that there had been a problem with the distances at Wetherby. Can I ask did/have the s/f compilers gone back and adjusted the figures? I ask because the figures I have for the Charlie Hall are nothing out of the ordinary. For sometime now I have treated the figures from Haydock with some suspicion and try not to use them.



Be Lucky

Hi mtoto

Sorry I don't know as I never bother with NH Speed Ratings these days

 

[mick]

Ratings based on race course performance are for myself a fascinating subject and with regard to the post race examples VDW gave his final two sets of ratings always made the correct call not only to separate apparent conflict amongst the final probables but for every runner in the contest.Mtoto suggests that one set was speed based i can accept this but if the other was form based then these (which he said where of his own creation) must have been the product of some very unique thinking.? When you put figs to the whole field often the top rated horses will not have recent winning or placed form as a result there OR will have been reduced and that's why the rating shows positive.Yet the VDW figs managed to swerve this occurrence.

When challenged about this at the time he said ratings where only used as a guide and that any decent commercially available ones would do yet i recall checking the RF TF and Haigh ratings at the time and often this proved incorrect when set against his race examples and ratings.

I remain inclined to believe that all the Man said was true but with regard to the above i have no idea how he did it.So i would be most interested in reading any comments from those who feel they do know because for myself those final two sets of ratings are the only overt consistent for every example shown.

 

[Chesham]

Hi mick

I suspect that he was using readily avaible ratings and data, then manipulating those into a separate rating. he nations he was away for periods of time and it would be very difficult to keep manual handicap ratings for both Flat &NH Ratings.

of the two sets the left hand column Insuspect is a straight forward Hanicap Rating weight based and the Right Hand Column, similar to Speed Plus with the Top Rated adjusted to 90 and the others adjusted down by the amount that they are adrift of the Top Rated.

Bobajobber may have the ratings commercially available after his visits to the National Newspaper Library and from those see which that could be manipulated into the 90 Rating

daft as it seems the best one to look at is the Old Fellow on 91 and Royal Inheritance on 90 VDW mentions (90) for inf next to Roayal Inheritance. I suspect that both were Rated 90 and the extra 1 point awarded as a Tie Breaker

Which set of manipulated ratings would put The Old Fellow and Royal Inheritance so close together would give the Clue

 

[mick]

Cheers Chesham your suggestion of manipulated already available ratings makes good sense.Certainly something to ponder.

 

[DBMB]

Is it not possible that there is a clue in the equation he gave us?

Everyone knows the Consistent form and Ability part but,what about the Capability and Probability being the reference point for the two sets of ratings.