• The issue has been fixed and hopefully you can post screen shots again
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Anywhere open

Hi DBMB DBMB

Do you still post under your other name on Kimmypops, I am not a member there but noticed that you were down as an Administrator
 
I have not even visited Kimmys for a long time now,access to the archive is possible through Google search so it negates the need for me to log in there anymore.

I post here and am a member of Sky's site that is it now.
 
DBMB said:
I have not even visited Kimmys for a long time now,access to the archive is possible through Google search so it negates the need for me to log in there anymore.

I post here and am a member of Sky's site that is it now.
Click to expand...

He is the chap who charges for VDW and a member on here but has not posted anything yet. I noticed he last visited just after Lee made his post on Mtoto's blog.
 
There is a fair bit of 2nd numerical chat over there but not much of worth has been posted there since we all left.
 
Who would want to post on a Forum where you get charged a subscription. I am Glad that I left nothing behind LOL
 
I would love to see a VDW "Giant" who claims to think and work as VDW intended set out the races this Saturday that VDW would have looked at in the same way as per his examples and explain which would be backed and why (before the off)

Mick,

As I see it there is one major problem with the above request, which method of looking at a race do you want to see? For me there are several different methods all with a different starting point. Improvement based on last run, consistency, etc. Then we have at least two different methods of judging ability, if some are to believed even consistency isn't a straight forward exercise.

I'm more than happy to stick with the "better" class races but then have a problem with passing over top class races to follow the VDW instruction of using the best race from a much weaker meeting. A rule/guide line he himself ignored at least once, but there again he did say and show NONE of these guide lines were set in stone.

Chesham has shown it is possible to achieve a very high strike rate so on second thoughts I will have to take back my doubts about the 80% strike rate mentioned by VDW. When one also looks at his staking plan it does suggest perhaps he was playing with these very short priced horses/winners. It may also hint at why he felt the need to approach the SCHB hopefully looking for some backing as an ordinary working chap was going to struggle making a worthwhile profit with the prices so low.

These short priced winners have never interested me and I was drawn to the few much longer priced winners shown and that has been my target ever since. While I can see the logic in wanting everything to be in place that will often be reflected in the price, so if the major element is there, CLASS, I have a starting point. As VDW said form and class had to be "equated" I use the speed merit method as I can see no logical way the AR can achieve this. So while I will never get anywhere near a 80% win strike rate the profit is well worth the trouble.

I maybe a little strange but I can't really follow/understand Bobba's objection to the advert on E-Bay. I can't see that it is any worse then Mr Peach selling ideas to the general public he hadn't bothered to check out, and here Bobba said anyone would do the same!! Goose and Ganders come to mind! While there is no way I would pay to see what ideas Groupform have come up with it may be interesting to see if they have come up with anything different. However at a guess I would think not, like most others it could well be just a re hash of the VDW literature with the hint the if you can't understand it you are just a little dim.

Be Lucky
 
Hi DBMB DBMB

HRB has Ability ratings, (See Total Column) you can try out the HRB (Horse Race Base) 7 days for Free via a link on this site

Example (Not a Race that I have backed in) Screen Shot 2014-12-09 at 14.16.13.png



Of Course with HRB you can also profile the horse to check out Capabilities, Class that the horse does well in

Screen Shot 2014-12-09 at 14.17.29.png

It is also a Form Book as well as having an extensive RSB for checking out almost anything

Horseplayer Horseplayer also uses a Class of Race Figure to see if the horse has done better in higher class races. If you look at todays race it is a Class 70 according to Horseplayer and looking down its history, the horse won a higher handicap = 78 and a Speed Fig of 78

Screen Shot 2014-12-09 at 14.12.21.png
 
Hi mtoto i was referring to the method and or the way he displayed a race via the early examples he gave.You profit via your interpretation but this is not the same.? When he set it all out with winners like the Sunset Cristo example i took this to be "Pure VDW" and no disrespect intended but the very good mixed price range was far higher than that of Cheshams who has i believe stated that his is a different variation.Yes VDW then introduced other variations but as i recall this was after he had claimed his > 80% S/r.?

I really wish to believe that the guy was honest and genuine and that he did achieve those wonderful results but when TP asked me my opinion at the time (because his office peers poured scorn on the claims) i said its easy done just ask for his next 10 bets before they run.VDW received a lot of stick when people had put in much effort without being able to make what he showed in his examples work with future races and fair dues to TP he posted some very critical responses on the S.Forum page but VDW chose to swerve the opportunity which could have been easy done via phone.

I could not understand why as there was no reason not to. ? Giving 10 pre race bets would still not be giving the method away because most would still be unable to workout how he had arrived at them but would have validated his work.
 
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It looks impressive Chesham but crikey that is a lot of information there,I wouldn't know where to start lol.
 
Hi mtoto i was referring to the method and or the way he displayed a race via the early examples he gave. When he set it all out with winners like the Sunset Cristo example i took this to be "Pure VDW"

Mick,

If you look at his early examples I think you will find around 30% of them couldn't be found using the methods shown in SIAO. I think this is one if not the main reasons many say VDW doesn't work. Using these methods the winner of the Erin and even Pegwell Bay wouldn't have been highlighted as they both failed on ............Always mark off the four highest ability ratings and three most consistent from the forecast. It may just be me but I really think SIAO should have been called VDW for Dummies it is the bare bones of a simple system that doesn't work, or doesn't work as well as most expect.

Lee is often held up as someone who had got to grips with VDW. I do have a problem with some of his thinking but somewhere I do remember him saying the first seven examples are/were the key (although I don't think he was using the key in the same context as VDW). I have also seen others say this and I agree with them, although I'm not sure if we have arrived at that for the same reasons. For me it is based on Mr Peach hadn't become involved at that stage.

As said I'm happy with my interruption of the literature, I'm happy I use ALL the tools VDW pointed out plus his formula. I'm happy I can make horses that fail on ability work by making them probables so fitting into the methods. I would give a lot for anyone to show me how Son Of Love is a probable as I can;t make him work my way and he needs to be on as he hasn't a rating using the speed merit method or using the AR method (9th best using it)

To be fair Fulham has shown me a way, but I just think it is too complicated, while I do think VDW was clever I don't really think he was a budding Einstein!! As all his races were in France bar one and I can't find any SP's returned for those races I have major doubts about SP being involved in the formulation of the probables.

Be Lucky
 
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DBMB said:
Been thinking about this on my way to work.

Im not sure what I can contribute if not VDW as this really is the only thing I have an interest in.

That being said I can also see where Bob is coming from as pretty much evrything that has been discussed in recent years has found its way in to a 'Rochdale' style package.

When VDW was discussed origionally it would have been individuals and very small groups with limited access so any ground made was earnt the hardest way of all,any discoveries would have been highly valued and certainly not shared on mass.

Many years later along came Lee,Guest and others who had thier discussions courtesy of the internet,all of a sudden access to information had taken a massive leap forward and although a good thing in one respect it also came with drawbacks.Reading certain posts and in particular certain posters from old threads shows they became aware of this so started to bury the significant posts under pages and pages of bickering and other nonsense,as well as deleating many.

Next up was us lot.We started to collect all the relevant material in one place,we did this to aid our ability to research but,inadvertantly we also made the rights bits more obvious to the untrained eye.All of a sudden being in the right place at the right time could lead someone to accessing large amounts of anothers research with little to no effort.When there is no effort there is little understanding of the value of that knowledge.

We were all so impressed with our progress at times that we forgot we were standing on the shoulders of giants,I for one at least fall under that category.I marvelled at the fact I could,I never even wondered about whether I should.
Click to expand...

DBMB

If you look on their web site they charge £29.00 for a month quoting aranyou on the 4th of December as a VDW selection and a winner at 6/1

Not sure how they got that

Cheers
 
Hi Pingman,

I cant say I went as far as the website I was already laughing at how little b.llS..t you get for your buck these days.

I cant comment on the selection as I never looked at it pre race myself.
 
Anywhere open.........Have to say DBMB your better off where you are because there are some very strange people abiding in the IS.Three in particular bear watching....
Fark Toil, Knave 69, and Bitsworth constantly on the prowl looking to ambush us innocent contributors.Me i am staying out here as its safer with more witnesses.

I am (at great personal risk) considering relating some of there past MO and current mischief as reported to myself by a very brave IS double agent who uses the code name Chosen.
The latest (as reported) concerns 69 who this morning revealed the operational details of his award winning system and this afternoon blew up HRB.See what awaits you.
 
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